Crusaders v Rebels
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@Chris-B said in Crusaders v Rebels:
@nzzp said in Crusaders v Rebels:
@Chris-B said in Crusaders v Rebels:
Nice work, Razor - needs to be a bit careful with the bye week, that can work against you, but taking plenty of momentum into it.
Any handle on who might be heading to Christchurch? Or too congested to tell yet?
A quick bit of analysis this morning. The crucial first tiebreaker is the team with the most wins - which hurts those with lots of draws - especially the Highlanders.
https://www.superxv.com/super-rugby/super-rugby-rules/
According to me:
Crusaders, Jaguares, Brumbies and Hurricanes are safely in the eight.The Bulls are effectively safe - to miss out it will take a combination of them getting thumped by the Lions, the Rebels beating the Chiefs and The Sharks beating the Stormers, but allowing the Stormers a losing bonus point.
The Highlanders, Waratahs, Blues, Reds and Sunwolves are all gone.
So five teams fighting for three spots - and four of them are playing one another.
Simple equation for all of the Lions, Stormers, Rebels and Sharks - you win and you're in.
Lions and Stormers will probably make it with a bonus point loss. They can possibly sneak in without, if results go their way.
Chiefs need to win and likely need a bonus point - or at least to deny the Rebels one and hope the Stormers beat the Sharks. They could potentially miss out on points differential even with a bonus point win if the Sharks win and the Stormers get a bonus point and the Lions get at least a point.
So pretty straightforward then
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@booboo yeah - there's a few caveats, but I reckon it will probably be pretty straightforward for those five teams:
If you win you're in and there will possibly be one lucky loser, who is most likely the Lions.
It's only the Chiefs that don't fully have their top 8 fate in their own hands.
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Ennor should be on the plane to japan. Big strong fast with a good rugby brain and covers at least 11,13,14. See you later naholo.
Havili’s best game of the season.
Rubbish rebels defence though.
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In replace of who though? Man we have some talent in NZ atm.
My backs atm are: Smith, Perenara, Hall, Barrett, Mo'unga, Leinert-Brown, Laumape, Goodhue, Crotty, Ioane, Bridge, Barrett, Smith, assuming they go with 13 backs - add in Ennor if they take 14.
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@Stargazer That one less win is an absolute killer for them because in any tie they lose out.
I thought there wasn't a combination of results that would let them make the eight, but looking again it seems like they still have a mathematical chance.
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@Canes4life I reckon Weber instead of Hall. He's been outstanding in recent weeks.
I'm expecting SBW instead of Laumape.
They should take 14 backs, but I'd be taking Josh Ioane rather than another outside back. However, if they only take two first fives, Ennor is a good shot - probably marginally ahead of Reece, with Will Jordan unlucky that he hasn't had the chance to press his case.
Possible that Ennor could also push out George Bridge by dint of being a right wing.
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@Chris-B it's harsh on Laumape because he has been brutally consistent all season and would probably give us more impact over an ageing SBW.
If it comes down to the two I would say Bridge gets the nod, purely from the fact he can cover all three backfield positions. I don't see a need for Ennor if we already have four midfielders.
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@Canes4life said in Crusaders v Rebels:
@Chris-B it's harsh on Laumape because he has been brutally consistent all season and would probably give us more impact over an ageing SBW.
If it comes down to the two I would say Bridge gets the nod, purely from the fact he can cover all three backfield positions. I don't see a need for Ennor if we already have four midfielders.
Wouldn’t be harsh at all. At every World Cup good players have always missed out.
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@ACT-Crusader said in Crusaders v Rebels:
@Canes4life said in Crusaders v Rebels:
@Chris-B it's harsh on Laumape because he has been brutally consistent all season and would probably give us more impact over an ageing SBW.
If it comes down to the two I would say Bridge gets the nod, purely from the fact he can cover all three backfield positions. I don't see a need for Ennor if we already have four midfielders.
Wouldn’t be harsh at all. At every World Cup good players have always missed out.
Doesn’t not make it harsh.
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@ACT-Crusader they usually miss out to other players that are actually playing. For Laumape to be playing like he is and miss out on selection to someone that has hardly shown any form for the last 2 years, has hardly played this year and cost us the Lions tour, it must be hard to swallow.
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@Canes4life said in Crusaders v Rebels:
@ACT-Crusader they usually miss out to other players that are actually playing. For Laumape to be playing like he is and miss out on selection to someone that has hardly shown any form for the last 2 years, has hardly played this year and cost us the Lions tour, it must be hard to swallow.
Would be hard to swallow. Let’s wait until squad named first.
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@Damo said in Crusaders v Rebels:
@Damo said in Crusaders v Rebels:
That is an example when advantage should be over in my book. Rebels might have gone 80m if that pass had stuck. They had a clear advantage.
Instead we go back for a scrum 10 metres back from where the lineout would have been. Especially since it was only a scrum advantage. PK advantage would be different.
And again. Scrum advantage should be over once a team gets clean ball and are free to use it as they wish.
Except that's not what the rules say.
And I prefer referees who play to the actual rules, not dodgy commentators on chat groups.
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@Billy-Tell Hasn't Hansen already said SBW's in the squad if fit?
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Since he probably won't tell you himself, I'm pretty sure that Damo is a ref.
Like, has a whistle and shorts he pulls up his ass, the full deal.
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@Canes4life in the RC squad, yes. Still gotta prove himself to go to Japan
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More than harsh if Laumape misses out. More like criminal.
