Skip to content
  • Categories
Collapse

The Silver Fern

  • Tipping
  • Team Sheets
  • Highlights
  • Results
    • All Blacks

      Search every All Blacks Test. Filter results by year, opposition, location, venue, city and RWC stage

    • Super Rugby

      Search every Super Rugby since match 1996

    • NPC

      Search NPC results. Only first division matches from 1976-2005. All results from the 14 team competition (2006-present) are included

Crusaders v Hurricanes

Scheduled Pinned Locked Moved Rugby Matches
crusadershurricanes
373 Posts 46 Posters 18.3k Views 2 Watching
  • Oldest to Newest
  • Newest to Oldest
  • Most Votes
Reply
  • Reply as topic
Log in to reply
This topic has been deleted. Only users with topic management privileges can see it.
  • KiwiMurphK KiwiMurph

    Isn't there a stat that the Crusaders have never conceded a rolling maul lineout drive try under Razor/Jase Ryan?

    M Offline
    M Offline
    Machpants
    wrote on last edited by
    #354

    @kiwimurph said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

    Isn't there a stat that the Crusaders have never conceded a rolling maul lineout drive try under Razor/Jase Ryan?

    Wow that def puts the decision in a different light - not going for the line but going for the maul try. Some clever move to get Ardie powering in there would have been better

    1 Reply Last reply
    1
    • C Offline
      C Offline
      cgrant
      wrote on last edited by
      #355

      It was a very kickable penalty. How many chances to get the 3 points : more than 70% IMO. How many chances to score a try via the lineout ? 20% maybe ?

      BonesB 1 Reply Last reply
      0
      • C cgrant

        It was a very kickable penalty. How many chances to get the 3 points : more than 70% IMO. How many chances to score a try via the lineout ? 20% maybe ?

        BonesB Offline
        BonesB Offline
        Bones
        wrote on last edited by
        #356

        @cgrant said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

        It was a very kickable penalty. How many chances to get the 3 points : more than 70% IMO. How many chances to score a try via the lineout ? 20% maybe ?

        I'm struggling to understand this concept that it's impossible for the canes to win in normal time, yet so much more acceptable they'd win in extra time. It doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

        H antipodeanA ToddyT 3 Replies Last reply
        4
        • BonesB Bones

          @cgrant said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

          It was a very kickable penalty. How many chances to get the 3 points : more than 70% IMO. How many chances to score a try via the lineout ? 20% maybe ?

          I'm struggling to understand this concept that it's impossible for the canes to win in normal time, yet so much more acceptable they'd win in extra time. It doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

          H Offline
          H Offline
          hydro11
          wrote on last edited by
          #357

          @bones said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

          @cgrant said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

          It was a very kickable penalty. How many chances to get the 3 points : more than 70% IMO. How many chances to score a try via the lineout ? 20% maybe ?

          I'm struggling to understand this concept that it's impossible for the canes to win in normal time, yet so much more acceptable they'd win in extra time. It doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

          Yeah. If we have only a 20% chance of scoring from 5 metres out, then we have a low chance of winning in golden point.

          1 Reply Last reply
          1
          • BonesB Bones

            @cgrant said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

            It was a very kickable penalty. How many chances to get the 3 points : more than 70% IMO. How many chances to score a try via the lineout ? 20% maybe ?

            I'm struggling to understand this concept that it's impossible for the canes to win in normal time, yet so much more acceptable they'd win in extra time. It doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

            antipodeanA Offline
            antipodeanA Offline
            antipodean
            wrote on last edited by
            #358

            @bones said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

            @cgrant said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

            It was a very kickable penalty. How many chances to get the 3 points : more than 70% IMO. How many chances to score a try via the lineout ? 20% maybe ?

            I'm struggling to understand this concept that it's impossible for the canes to win in normal time, yet so much more acceptable they'd win in extra time. It doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

            Trying to score from something they're bad at (lineout - maul) against a team excellent at defending a maul. Extra time provides unstructured opportunities which is something the Canes are reasonable at.

            H 1 Reply Last reply
            3
            • antipodeanA antipodean

              @bones said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

              @cgrant said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

              It was a very kickable penalty. How many chances to get the 3 points : more than 70% IMO. How many chances to score a try via the lineout ? 20% maybe ?

              I'm struggling to understand this concept that it's impossible for the canes to win in normal time, yet so much more acceptable they'd win in extra time. It doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

              Trying to score from something they're bad at (lineout - maul) against a team excellent at defending a maul. Extra time provides unstructured opportunities which is something the Canes are reasonable at.

              H Offline
              H Offline
              hydro11
              wrote on last edited by
              #359

              @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

              @bones said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

              @cgrant said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

              It was a very kickable penalty. How many chances to get the 3 points : more than 70% IMO. How many chances to score a try via the lineout ? 20% maybe ?

              I'm struggling to understand this concept that it's impossible for the canes to win in normal time, yet so much more acceptable they'd win in extra time. It doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

              Trying to score from something they're bad at (lineout - maul) against a team excellent at defending a maul. Extra time provides unstructured opportunities which is something the Canes are reasonable at.

              It's not just a maul though. Even if you don't score from the maul, you should be able to recycle and get an unstructured opportunity 5 metres out.

              antipodeanA 1 Reply Last reply
              1
              • H hydro11

                @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                @bones said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                @cgrant said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                It was a very kickable penalty. How many chances to get the 3 points : more than 70% IMO. How many chances to score a try via the lineout ? 20% maybe ?

                I'm struggling to understand this concept that it's impossible for the canes to win in normal time, yet so much more acceptable they'd win in extra time. It doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

                Trying to score from something they're bad at (lineout - maul) against a team excellent at defending a maul. Extra time provides unstructured opportunities which is something the Canes are reasonable at.

                It's not just a maul though. Even if you don't score from the maul, you should be able to recycle and get an unstructured opportunity 5 metres out.

                antipodeanA Offline
                antipodeanA Offline
                antipodean
                wrote on last edited by
                #360

                @hydro11 said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                @bones said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                @cgrant said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                It was a very kickable penalty. How many chances to get the 3 points : more than 70% IMO. How many chances to score a try via the lineout ? 20% maybe ?

                I'm struggling to understand this concept that it's impossible for the canes to win in normal time, yet so much more acceptable they'd win in extra time. It doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

                Trying to score from something they're bad at (lineout - maul) against a team excellent at defending a maul. Extra time provides unstructured opportunities which is something the Canes are reasonable at.

                It's not just a maul though. Even if you don't score from the maul, you should be able to recycle and get an unstructured opportunity 5 metres out.

                Did they..?

                H 1 Reply Last reply
                0
                • BonesB Bones

                  @cgrant said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                  It was a very kickable penalty. How many chances to get the 3 points : more than 70% IMO. How many chances to score a try via the lineout ? 20% maybe ?

                  I'm struggling to understand this concept that it's impossible for the canes to win in normal time, yet so much more acceptable they'd win in extra time. It doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

                  ToddyT Offline
                  ToddyT Offline
                  Toddy
                  wrote on last edited by
                  #361

                  @bones and the fact that it had to be from the maul. The maul is just the first option.

                  Canes couldn't beat MP in golden point ffs

                  1 Reply Last reply
                  1
                  • antipodeanA antipodean

                    @hydro11 said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                    @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                    @bones said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                    @cgrant said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                    It was a very kickable penalty. How many chances to get the 3 points : more than 70% IMO. How many chances to score a try via the lineout ? 20% maybe ?

                    I'm struggling to understand this concept that it's impossible for the canes to win in normal time, yet so much more acceptable they'd win in extra time. It doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

                    Trying to score from something they're bad at (lineout - maul) against a team excellent at defending a maul. Extra time provides unstructured opportunities which is something the Canes are reasonable at.

                    It's not just a maul though. Even if you don't score from the maul, you should be able to recycle and get an unstructured opportunity 5 metres out.

                    Did they..?

                    H Offline
                    H Offline
                    hydro11
                    wrote on last edited by
                    #362

                    @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                    @hydro11 said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                    @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                    @bones said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                    @cgrant said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                    It was a very kickable penalty. How many chances to get the 3 points : more than 70% IMO. How many chances to score a try via the lineout ? 20% maybe ?

                    I'm struggling to understand this concept that it's impossible for the canes to win in normal time, yet so much more acceptable they'd win in extra time. It doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

                    Trying to score from something they're bad at (lineout - maul) against a team excellent at defending a maul. Extra time provides unstructured opportunities which is something the Canes are reasonable at.

                    It's not just a maul though. Even if you don't score from the maul, you should be able to recycle and get an unstructured opportunity 5 metres out.

                    Did they..?

                    Going for the lineout has less than a 50% chance of success, so can't use the fact it failed to prove your point. It has to be based on the likeliness at the time.

                    antipodeanA 1 Reply Last reply
                    0
                    • H hydro11

                      @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                      @hydro11 said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                      @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                      @bones said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                      @cgrant said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                      It was a very kickable penalty. How many chances to get the 3 points : more than 70% IMO. How many chances to score a try via the lineout ? 20% maybe ?

                      I'm struggling to understand this concept that it's impossible for the canes to win in normal time, yet so much more acceptable they'd win in extra time. It doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

                      Trying to score from something they're bad at (lineout - maul) against a team excellent at defending a maul. Extra time provides unstructured opportunities which is something the Canes are reasonable at.

                      It's not just a maul though. Even if you don't score from the maul, you should be able to recycle and get an unstructured opportunity 5 metres out.

                      Did they..?

                      Going for the lineout has less than a 50% chance of success, so can't use the fact it failed to prove your point. It has to be based on the likeliness at the time.

                      antipodeanA Offline
                      antipodeanA Offline
                      antipodean
                      wrote on last edited by
                      #363

                      @hydro11 said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                      @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                      @hydro11 said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                      @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                      @bones said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                      @cgrant said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                      It was a very kickable penalty. How many chances to get the 3 points : more than 70% IMO. How many chances to score a try via the lineout ? 20% maybe ?

                      I'm struggling to understand this concept that it's impossible for the canes to win in normal time, yet so much more acceptable they'd win in extra time. It doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

                      Trying to score from something they're bad at (lineout - maul) against a team excellent at defending a maul. Extra time provides unstructured opportunities which is something the Canes are reasonable at.

                      It's not just a maul though. Even if you don't score from the maul, you should be able to recycle and get an unstructured opportunity 5 metres out.

                      Did they..?

                      Going for the lineout has less than a 50% chance of success, so can't use the fact it failed to prove your point. It has to be based on the likeliness at the time.

                      Let me get this logic right: A Canes lineout has more chance of losing possession that winning it, so it's better to attempt that to its inevitable conclusion (as we saw), than to force other opportunities?

                      H 1 Reply Last reply
                      0
                      • antipodeanA antipodean

                        @hydro11 said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                        @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                        @hydro11 said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                        @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                        @bones said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                        @cgrant said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                        It was a very kickable penalty. How many chances to get the 3 points : more than 70% IMO. How many chances to score a try via the lineout ? 20% maybe ?

                        I'm struggling to understand this concept that it's impossible for the canes to win in normal time, yet so much more acceptable they'd win in extra time. It doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

                        Trying to score from something they're bad at (lineout - maul) against a team excellent at defending a maul. Extra time provides unstructured opportunities which is something the Canes are reasonable at.

                        It's not just a maul though. Even if you don't score from the maul, you should be able to recycle and get an unstructured opportunity 5 metres out.

                        Did they..?

                        Going for the lineout has less than a 50% chance of success, so can't use the fact it failed to prove your point. It has to be based on the likeliness at the time.

                        Let me get this logic right: A Canes lineout has more chance of losing possession that winning it, so it's better to attempt that to its inevitable conclusion (as we saw), than to force other opportunities?

                        H Offline
                        H Offline
                        hydro11
                        wrote on last edited by
                        #364

                        @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                        @hydro11 said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                        @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                        @hydro11 said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                        @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                        @bones said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                        @cgrant said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                        It was a very kickable penalty. How many chances to get the 3 points : more than 70% IMO. How many chances to score a try via the lineout ? 20% maybe ?

                        I'm struggling to understand this concept that it's impossible for the canes to win in normal time, yet so much more acceptable they'd win in extra time. It doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

                        Trying to score from something they're bad at (lineout - maul) against a team excellent at defending a maul. Extra time provides unstructured opportunities which is something the Canes are reasonable at.

                        It's not just a maul though. Even if you don't score from the maul, you should be able to recycle and get an unstructured opportunity 5 metres out.

                        Did they..?

                        Going for the lineout has less than a 50% chance of success, so can't use the fact it failed to prove your point. It has to be based on the likeliness at the time.

                        Let me get this logic right: A Canes lineout has more chance of losing possession that winning it, so it's better to attempt that to its inevitable conclusion (as we saw), than to force other opportunities?

                        No. The lineout has less than 50% chance of leading to a try. Obviously, we have more than 50% chance of winning the ball back.

                        antipodeanA 1 Reply Last reply
                        0
                        • H hydro11

                          @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                          @hydro11 said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                          @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                          @hydro11 said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                          @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                          @bones said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                          @cgrant said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                          It was a very kickable penalty. How many chances to get the 3 points : more than 70% IMO. How many chances to score a try via the lineout ? 20% maybe ?

                          I'm struggling to understand this concept that it's impossible for the canes to win in normal time, yet so much more acceptable they'd win in extra time. It doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

                          Trying to score from something they're bad at (lineout - maul) against a team excellent at defending a maul. Extra time provides unstructured opportunities which is something the Canes are reasonable at.

                          It's not just a maul though. Even if you don't score from the maul, you should be able to recycle and get an unstructured opportunity 5 metres out.

                          Did they..?

                          Going for the lineout has less than a 50% chance of success, so can't use the fact it failed to prove your point. It has to be based on the likeliness at the time.

                          Let me get this logic right: A Canes lineout has more chance of losing possession that winning it, so it's better to attempt that to its inevitable conclusion (as we saw), than to force other opportunities?

                          No. The lineout has less than 50% chance of leading to a try. Obviously, we have more than 50% chance of winning the ball back.

                          antipodeanA Offline
                          antipodeanA Offline
                          antipodean
                          wrote on last edited by
                          #365

                          @hydro11 said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                          @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                          @hydro11 said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                          @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                          @hydro11 said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                          @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                          @bones said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                          @cgrant said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                          It was a very kickable penalty. How many chances to get the 3 points : more than 70% IMO. How many chances to score a try via the lineout ? 20% maybe ?

                          I'm struggling to understand this concept that it's impossible for the canes to win in normal time, yet so much more acceptable they'd win in extra time. It doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

                          Trying to score from something they're bad at (lineout - maul) against a team excellent at defending a maul. Extra time provides unstructured opportunities which is something the Canes are reasonable at.

                          It's not just a maul though. Even if you don't score from the maul, you should be able to recycle and get an unstructured opportunity 5 metres out.

                          Did they..?

                          Going for the lineout has less than a 50% chance of success, so can't use the fact it failed to prove your point. It has to be based on the likeliness at the time.

                          Let me get this logic right: A Canes lineout has more chance of losing possession that winning it, so it's better to attempt that to its inevitable conclusion (as we saw), than to force other opportunities?

                          No. The lineout has less than 50% chance of leading to a try. Obviously, we have more than 50% chance of winning the ball back.

                          Ok. A Canes lineout has more chance of not leading to a try than scoring one, so it's better to attempt that to its inevitable conclusion (as we saw), than to force other opportunities?

                          H 1 Reply Last reply
                          0
                          • antipodeanA antipodean

                            @hydro11 said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                            @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                            @hydro11 said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                            @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                            @hydro11 said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                            @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                            @bones said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                            @cgrant said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                            It was a very kickable penalty. How many chances to get the 3 points : more than 70% IMO. How many chances to score a try via the lineout ? 20% maybe ?

                            I'm struggling to understand this concept that it's impossible for the canes to win in normal time, yet so much more acceptable they'd win in extra time. It doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

                            Trying to score from something they're bad at (lineout - maul) against a team excellent at defending a maul. Extra time provides unstructured opportunities which is something the Canes are reasonable at.

                            It's not just a maul though. Even if you don't score from the maul, you should be able to recycle and get an unstructured opportunity 5 metres out.

                            Did they..?

                            Going for the lineout has less than a 50% chance of success, so can't use the fact it failed to prove your point. It has to be based on the likeliness at the time.

                            Let me get this logic right: A Canes lineout has more chance of losing possession that winning it, so it's better to attempt that to its inevitable conclusion (as we saw), than to force other opportunities?

                            No. The lineout has less than 50% chance of leading to a try. Obviously, we have more than 50% chance of winning the ball back.

                            Ok. A Canes lineout has more chance of not leading to a try than scoring one, so it's better to attempt that to its inevitable conclusion (as we saw), than to force other opportunities?

                            H Offline
                            H Offline
                            hydro11
                            wrote on last edited by
                            #366

                            @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                            @hydro11 said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                            @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                            @hydro11 said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                            @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                            @hydro11 said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                            @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                            @bones said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                            @cgrant said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                            It was a very kickable penalty. How many chances to get the 3 points : more than 70% IMO. How many chances to score a try via the lineout ? 20% maybe ?

                            I'm struggling to understand this concept that it's impossible for the canes to win in normal time, yet so much more acceptable they'd win in extra time. It doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

                            Trying to score from something they're bad at (lineout - maul) against a team excellent at defending a maul. Extra time provides unstructured opportunities which is something the Canes are reasonable at.

                            It's not just a maul though. Even if you don't score from the maul, you should be able to recycle and get an unstructured opportunity 5 metres out.

                            Did they..?

                            Going for the lineout has less than a 50% chance of success, so can't use the fact it failed to prove your point. It has to be based on the likeliness at the time.

                            Let me get this logic right: A Canes lineout has more chance of losing possession that winning it, so it's better to attempt that to its inevitable conclusion (as we saw), than to force other opportunities?

                            No. The lineout has less than 50% chance of leading to a try. Obviously, we have more than 50% chance of winning the ball back.

                            Ok. A Canes lineout has more chance of not leading to a try than scoring one, so it's better to attempt that to its inevitable conclusion (as we saw), than to force other opportunities?

                            Yes. Going to golden point also has more chance of losing than winning. That's the point we have been making. There was no option at that stage which gave the Hurricanes a greater than 50% chance of winning.

                            antipodeanA 1 Reply Last reply
                            0
                            • H hydro11

                              @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                              @hydro11 said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                              @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                              @hydro11 said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                              @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                              @hydro11 said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                              @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                              @bones said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                              @cgrant said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                              It was a very kickable penalty. How many chances to get the 3 points : more than 70% IMO. How many chances to score a try via the lineout ? 20% maybe ?

                              I'm struggling to understand this concept that it's impossible for the canes to win in normal time, yet so much more acceptable they'd win in extra time. It doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

                              Trying to score from something they're bad at (lineout - maul) against a team excellent at defending a maul. Extra time provides unstructured opportunities which is something the Canes are reasonable at.

                              It's not just a maul though. Even if you don't score from the maul, you should be able to recycle and get an unstructured opportunity 5 metres out.

                              Did they..?

                              Going for the lineout has less than a 50% chance of success, so can't use the fact it failed to prove your point. It has to be based on the likeliness at the time.

                              Let me get this logic right: A Canes lineout has more chance of losing possession that winning it, so it's better to attempt that to its inevitable conclusion (as we saw), than to force other opportunities?

                              No. The lineout has less than 50% chance of leading to a try. Obviously, we have more than 50% chance of winning the ball back.

                              Ok. A Canes lineout has more chance of not leading to a try than scoring one, so it's better to attempt that to its inevitable conclusion (as we saw), than to force other opportunities?

                              Yes. Going to golden point also has more chance of losing than winning. That's the point we have been making. There was no option at that stage which gave the Hurricanes a greater than 50% chance of winning.

                              antipodeanA Offline
                              antipodeanA Offline
                              antipodean
                              wrote on last edited by
                              #367

                              @hydro11 said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                              @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                              @hydro11 said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                              @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                              @hydro11 said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                              @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                              @hydro11 said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                              @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                              @bones said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                              @cgrant said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                              It was a very kickable penalty. How many chances to get the 3 points : more than 70% IMO. How many chances to score a try via the lineout ? 20% maybe ?

                              I'm struggling to understand this concept that it's impossible for the canes to win in normal time, yet so much more acceptable they'd win in extra time. It doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

                              Trying to score from something they're bad at (lineout - maul) against a team excellent at defending a maul. Extra time provides unstructured opportunities which is something the Canes are reasonable at.

                              It's not just a maul though. Even if you don't score from the maul, you should be able to recycle and get an unstructured opportunity 5 metres out.

                              Did they..?

                              Going for the lineout has less than a 50% chance of success, so can't use the fact it failed to prove your point. It has to be based on the likeliness at the time.

                              Let me get this logic right: A Canes lineout has more chance of losing possession that winning it, so it's better to attempt that to its inevitable conclusion (as we saw), than to force other opportunities?

                              No. The lineout has less than 50% chance of leading to a try. Obviously, we have more than 50% chance of winning the ball back.

                              Ok. A Canes lineout has more chance of not leading to a try than scoring one, so it's better to attempt that to its inevitable conclusion (as we saw), than to force other opportunities?

                              Yes. Going to golden point also has more chance of losing than winning.

                              There's only two teams competing in golden point...

                              H 1 Reply Last reply
                              0
                              • antipodeanA antipodean

                                @hydro11 said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                @hydro11 said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                @hydro11 said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                @hydro11 said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                @bones said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                @cgrant said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                It was a very kickable penalty. How many chances to get the 3 points : more than 70% IMO. How many chances to score a try via the lineout ? 20% maybe ?

                                I'm struggling to understand this concept that it's impossible for the canes to win in normal time, yet so much more acceptable they'd win in extra time. It doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

                                Trying to score from something they're bad at (lineout - maul) against a team excellent at defending a maul. Extra time provides unstructured opportunities which is something the Canes are reasonable at.

                                It's not just a maul though. Even if you don't score from the maul, you should be able to recycle and get an unstructured opportunity 5 metres out.

                                Did they..?

                                Going for the lineout has less than a 50% chance of success, so can't use the fact it failed to prove your point. It has to be based on the likeliness at the time.

                                Let me get this logic right: A Canes lineout has more chance of losing possession that winning it, so it's better to attempt that to its inevitable conclusion (as we saw), than to force other opportunities?

                                No. The lineout has less than 50% chance of leading to a try. Obviously, we have more than 50% chance of winning the ball back.

                                Ok. A Canes lineout has more chance of not leading to a try than scoring one, so it's better to attempt that to its inevitable conclusion (as we saw), than to force other opportunities?

                                Yes. Going to golden point also has more chance of losing than winning.

                                There's only two teams competing in golden point...

                                H Offline
                                H Offline
                                hydro11
                                wrote on last edited by
                                #368

                                @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                @hydro11 said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                @hydro11 said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                @hydro11 said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                @hydro11 said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                @bones said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                @cgrant said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                It was a very kickable penalty. How many chances to get the 3 points : more than 70% IMO. How many chances to score a try via the lineout ? 20% maybe ?

                                I'm struggling to understand this concept that it's impossible for the canes to win in normal time, yet so much more acceptable they'd win in extra time. It doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

                                Trying to score from something they're bad at (lineout - maul) against a team excellent at defending a maul. Extra time provides unstructured opportunities which is something the Canes are reasonable at.

                                It's not just a maul though. Even if you don't score from the maul, you should be able to recycle and get an unstructured opportunity 5 metres out.

                                Did they..?

                                Going for the lineout has less than a 50% chance of success, so can't use the fact it failed to prove your point. It has to be based on the likeliness at the time.

                                Let me get this logic right: A Canes lineout has more chance of losing possession that winning it, so it's better to attempt that to its inevitable conclusion (as we saw), than to force other opportunities?

                                No. The lineout has less than 50% chance of leading to a try. Obviously, we have more than 50% chance of winning the ball back.

                                Ok. A Canes lineout has more chance of not leading to a try than scoring one, so it's better to attempt that to its inevitable conclusion (as we saw), than to force other opportunities?

                                Yes. Going to golden point also has more chance of losing than winning.

                                There's only two teams competing in golden point...

                                Yes, but the Crusaders are a far better team, thus giving them a greater than 50% chance of winning in golden point. I don't believe you think the Hurricanes are as good as the Crusaders, or would be as likely to win from that point.

                                Even if you think golden point is a 50/50, Jordie still has to kick the goal to take us there. Unless you give him a 100% chance of doing so, there was a sub 50% the Hurricanes won from that position.

                                antipodeanA 1 Reply Last reply
                                2
                                • H hydro11

                                  @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                  @hydro11 said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                  @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                  @hydro11 said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                  @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                  @hydro11 said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                  @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                  @hydro11 said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                  @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                  @bones said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                  @cgrant said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                  It was a very kickable penalty. How many chances to get the 3 points : more than 70% IMO. How many chances to score a try via the lineout ? 20% maybe ?

                                  I'm struggling to understand this concept that it's impossible for the canes to win in normal time, yet so much more acceptable they'd win in extra time. It doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

                                  Trying to score from something they're bad at (lineout - maul) against a team excellent at defending a maul. Extra time provides unstructured opportunities which is something the Canes are reasonable at.

                                  It's not just a maul though. Even if you don't score from the maul, you should be able to recycle and get an unstructured opportunity 5 metres out.

                                  Did they..?

                                  Going for the lineout has less than a 50% chance of success, so can't use the fact it failed to prove your point. It has to be based on the likeliness at the time.

                                  Let me get this logic right: A Canes lineout has more chance of losing possession that winning it, so it's better to attempt that to its inevitable conclusion (as we saw), than to force other opportunities?

                                  No. The lineout has less than 50% chance of leading to a try. Obviously, we have more than 50% chance of winning the ball back.

                                  Ok. A Canes lineout has more chance of not leading to a try than scoring one, so it's better to attempt that to its inevitable conclusion (as we saw), than to force other opportunities?

                                  Yes. Going to golden point also has more chance of losing than winning.

                                  There's only two teams competing in golden point...

                                  Yes, but the Crusaders are a far better team, thus giving them a greater than 50% chance of winning in golden point. I don't believe you think the Hurricanes are as good as the Crusaders, or would be as likely to win from that point.

                                  Even if you think golden point is a 50/50, Jordie still has to kick the goal to take us there. Unless you give him a 100% chance of doing so, there was a sub 50% the Hurricanes won from that position.

                                  antipodeanA Offline
                                  antipodeanA Offline
                                  antipodean
                                  wrote on last edited by
                                  #369

                                  @hydro11 said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                  @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                  @hydro11 said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                  @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                  @hydro11 said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                  @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                  @hydro11 said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                  @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                  @hydro11 said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                  @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                  @bones said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                  @cgrant said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                  It was a very kickable penalty. How many chances to get the 3 points : more than 70% IMO. How many chances to score a try via the lineout ? 20% maybe ?

                                  I'm struggling to understand this concept that it's impossible for the canes to win in normal time, yet so much more acceptable they'd win in extra time. It doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

                                  Trying to score from something they're bad at (lineout - maul) against a team excellent at defending a maul. Extra time provides unstructured opportunities which is something the Canes are reasonable at.

                                  It's not just a maul though. Even if you don't score from the maul, you should be able to recycle and get an unstructured opportunity 5 metres out.

                                  Did they..?

                                  Going for the lineout has less than a 50% chance of success, so can't use the fact it failed to prove your point. It has to be based on the likeliness at the time.

                                  Let me get this logic right: A Canes lineout has more chance of losing possession that winning it, so it's better to attempt that to its inevitable conclusion (as we saw), than to force other opportunities?

                                  No. The lineout has less than 50% chance of leading to a try. Obviously, we have more than 50% chance of winning the ball back.

                                  Ok. A Canes lineout has more chance of not leading to a try than scoring one, so it's better to attempt that to its inevitable conclusion (as we saw), than to force other opportunities?

                                  Yes. Going to golden point also has more chance of losing than winning.

                                  There's only two teams competing in golden point...

                                  Yes, but the Crusaders are a far better team, thus giving them a greater than 50% chance of winning in golden point. I don't believe you think the Hurricanes are as good as the Crusaders, or would be as likely to win from that point.

                                  Even if you think golden point is a 50/50, Jordie still has to kick the goal to take us there. Unless you give him a 100% chance of doing so, there was a sub 50% the Hurricanes won from that position.

                                  I understand now. You weren't going to win so why delay the inevitable, get it over in normal time!

                                  gt12G 1 Reply Last reply
                                  2
                                  • antipodeanA antipodean

                                    @hydro11 said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                    @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                    @hydro11 said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                    @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                    @hydro11 said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                    @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                    @hydro11 said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                    @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                    @hydro11 said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                    @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                    @bones said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                    @cgrant said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                    It was a very kickable penalty. How many chances to get the 3 points : more than 70% IMO. How many chances to score a try via the lineout ? 20% maybe ?

                                    I'm struggling to understand this concept that it's impossible for the canes to win in normal time, yet so much more acceptable they'd win in extra time. It doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

                                    Trying to score from something they're bad at (lineout - maul) against a team excellent at defending a maul. Extra time provides unstructured opportunities which is something the Canes are reasonable at.

                                    It's not just a maul though. Even if you don't score from the maul, you should be able to recycle and get an unstructured opportunity 5 metres out.

                                    Did they..?

                                    Going for the lineout has less than a 50% chance of success, so can't use the fact it failed to prove your point. It has to be based on the likeliness at the time.

                                    Let me get this logic right: A Canes lineout has more chance of losing possession that winning it, so it's better to attempt that to its inevitable conclusion (as we saw), than to force other opportunities?

                                    No. The lineout has less than 50% chance of leading to a try. Obviously, we have more than 50% chance of winning the ball back.

                                    Ok. A Canes lineout has more chance of not leading to a try than scoring one, so it's better to attempt that to its inevitable conclusion (as we saw), than to force other opportunities?

                                    Yes. Going to golden point also has more chance of losing than winning.

                                    There's only two teams competing in golden point...

                                    Yes, but the Crusaders are a far better team, thus giving them a greater than 50% chance of winning in golden point. I don't believe you think the Hurricanes are as good as the Crusaders, or would be as likely to win from that point.

                                    Even if you think golden point is a 50/50, Jordie still has to kick the goal to take us there. Unless you give him a 100% chance of doing so, there was a sub 50% the Hurricanes won from that position.

                                    I understand now. You weren't going to win so why delay the inevitable, get it over in normal time!

                                    gt12G Offline
                                    gt12G Offline
                                    gt12
                                    wrote on last edited by
                                    #370

                                    @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                    @hydro11 said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                    @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                    @hydro11 said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                    @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                    @hydro11 said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                    @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                    @hydro11 said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                    @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                    @hydro11 said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                    @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                    @bones said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                    @cgrant said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                    It was a very kickable penalty. How many chances to get the 3 points : more than 70% IMO. How many chances to score a try via the lineout ? 20% maybe ?

                                    I'm struggling to understand this concept that it's impossible for the canes to win in normal time, yet so much more acceptable they'd win in extra time. It doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

                                    Trying to score from something they're bad at (lineout - maul) against a team excellent at defending a maul. Extra time provides unstructured opportunities which is something the Canes are reasonable at.

                                    It's not just a maul though. Even if you don't score from the maul, you should be able to recycle and get an unstructured opportunity 5 metres out.

                                    Did they..?

                                    Going for the lineout has less than a 50% chance of success, so can't use the fact it failed to prove your point. It has to be based on the likeliness at the time.

                                    Let me get this logic right: A Canes lineout has more chance of losing possession that winning it, so it's better to attempt that to its inevitable conclusion (as we saw), than to force other opportunities?

                                    No. The lineout has less than 50% chance of leading to a try. Obviously, we have more than 50% chance of winning the ball back.

                                    Ok. A Canes lineout has more chance of not leading to a try than scoring one, so it's better to attempt that to its inevitable conclusion (as we saw), than to force other opportunities?

                                    Yes. Going to golden point also has more chance of losing than winning.

                                    There's only two teams competing in golden point...

                                    Yes, but the Crusaders are a far better team, thus giving them a greater than 50% chance of winning in golden point. I don't believe you think the Hurricanes are as good as the Crusaders, or would be as likely to win from that point.

                                    Even if you think golden point is a 50/50, Jordie still has to kick the goal to take us there. Unless you give him a 100% chance of doing so, there was a sub 50% the Hurricanes won from that position.

                                    I understand now. You weren't going to win so why delay the inevitable, get it over in normal time!

                                    That’s exactly what I’m reading too.

                                    We’ll only get one chance as we aren’t good enough. Fair enough.

                                    What I find hilarious is that the Canes were 6/10 against the Saders for line outs won.

                                    But the kick is the risky option.

                                    H 1 Reply Last reply
                                    0
                                    • gt12G gt12

                                      @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                      @hydro11 said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                      @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                      @hydro11 said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                      @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                      @hydro11 said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                      @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                      @hydro11 said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                      @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                      @hydro11 said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                      @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                      @bones said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                      @cgrant said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                      It was a very kickable penalty. How many chances to get the 3 points : more than 70% IMO. How many chances to score a try via the lineout ? 20% maybe ?

                                      I'm struggling to understand this concept that it's impossible for the canes to win in normal time, yet so much more acceptable they'd win in extra time. It doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

                                      Trying to score from something they're bad at (lineout - maul) against a team excellent at defending a maul. Extra time provides unstructured opportunities which is something the Canes are reasonable at.

                                      It's not just a maul though. Even if you don't score from the maul, you should be able to recycle and get an unstructured opportunity 5 metres out.

                                      Did they..?

                                      Going for the lineout has less than a 50% chance of success, so can't use the fact it failed to prove your point. It has to be based on the likeliness at the time.

                                      Let me get this logic right: A Canes lineout has more chance of losing possession that winning it, so it's better to attempt that to its inevitable conclusion (as we saw), than to force other opportunities?

                                      No. The lineout has less than 50% chance of leading to a try. Obviously, we have more than 50% chance of winning the ball back.

                                      Ok. A Canes lineout has more chance of not leading to a try than scoring one, so it's better to attempt that to its inevitable conclusion (as we saw), than to force other opportunities?

                                      Yes. Going to golden point also has more chance of losing than winning.

                                      There's only two teams competing in golden point...

                                      Yes, but the Crusaders are a far better team, thus giving them a greater than 50% chance of winning in golden point. I don't believe you think the Hurricanes are as good as the Crusaders, or would be as likely to win from that point.

                                      Even if you think golden point is a 50/50, Jordie still has to kick the goal to take us there. Unless you give him a 100% chance of doing so, there was a sub 50% the Hurricanes won from that position.

                                      I understand now. You weren't going to win so why delay the inevitable, get it over in normal time!

                                      That’s exactly what I’m reading too.

                                      We’ll only get one chance as we aren’t good enough. Fair enough.

                                      What I find hilarious is that the Canes were 6/10 against the Saders for line outs won.

                                      But the kick is the risky option.

                                      H Offline
                                      H Offline
                                      hydro11
                                      wrote on last edited by
                                      #371

                                      @gt12 said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                      @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                      @hydro11 said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                      @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                      @hydro11 said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                      @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                      @hydro11 said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                      @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                      @hydro11 said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                      @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                      @hydro11 said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                      @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                      @bones said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                      @cgrant said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                      It was a very kickable penalty. How many chances to get the 3 points : more than 70% IMO. How many chances to score a try via the lineout ? 20% maybe ?

                                      I'm struggling to understand this concept that it's impossible for the canes to win in normal time, yet so much more acceptable they'd win in extra time. It doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

                                      Trying to score from something they're bad at (lineout - maul) against a team excellent at defending a maul. Extra time provides unstructured opportunities which is something the Canes are reasonable at.

                                      It's not just a maul though. Even if you don't score from the maul, you should be able to recycle and get an unstructured opportunity 5 metres out.

                                      Did they..?

                                      Going for the lineout has less than a 50% chance of success, so can't use the fact it failed to prove your point. It has to be based on the likeliness at the time.

                                      Let me get this logic right: A Canes lineout has more chance of losing possession that winning it, so it's better to attempt that to its inevitable conclusion (as we saw), than to force other opportunities?

                                      No. The lineout has less than 50% chance of leading to a try. Obviously, we have more than 50% chance of winning the ball back.

                                      Ok. A Canes lineout has more chance of not leading to a try than scoring one, so it's better to attempt that to its inevitable conclusion (as we saw), than to force other opportunities?

                                      Yes. Going to golden point also has more chance of losing than winning.

                                      There's only two teams competing in golden point...

                                      Yes, but the Crusaders are a far better team, thus giving them a greater than 50% chance of winning in golden point. I don't believe you think the Hurricanes are as good as the Crusaders, or would be as likely to win from that point.

                                      Even if you think golden point is a 50/50, Jordie still has to kick the goal to take us there. Unless you give him a 100% chance of doing so, there was a sub 50% the Hurricanes won from that position.

                                      I understand now. You weren't going to win so why delay the inevitable, get it over in normal time!

                                      That’s exactly what I’m reading too.

                                      We’ll only get one chance as we aren’t good enough. Fair enough.

                                      What I find hilarious is that the Canes were 6/10 against the Saders for line outs won.

                                      But the kick is the risky option.

                                      Our lineout is much better than that normally though.

                                      gt12G HigginsH 2 Replies Last reply
                                      0
                                      • H hydro11

                                        @gt12 said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                        @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                        @hydro11 said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                        @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                        @hydro11 said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                        @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                        @hydro11 said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                        @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                        @hydro11 said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                        @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                        @hydro11 said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                        @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                        @bones said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                        @cgrant said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                        It was a very kickable penalty. How many chances to get the 3 points : more than 70% IMO. How many chances to score a try via the lineout ? 20% maybe ?

                                        I'm struggling to understand this concept that it's impossible for the canes to win in normal time, yet so much more acceptable they'd win in extra time. It doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

                                        Trying to score from something they're bad at (lineout - maul) against a team excellent at defending a maul. Extra time provides unstructured opportunities which is something the Canes are reasonable at.

                                        It's not just a maul though. Even if you don't score from the maul, you should be able to recycle and get an unstructured opportunity 5 metres out.

                                        Did they..?

                                        Going for the lineout has less than a 50% chance of success, so can't use the fact it failed to prove your point. It has to be based on the likeliness at the time.

                                        Let me get this logic right: A Canes lineout has more chance of losing possession that winning it, so it's better to attempt that to its inevitable conclusion (as we saw), than to force other opportunities?

                                        No. The lineout has less than 50% chance of leading to a try. Obviously, we have more than 50% chance of winning the ball back.

                                        Ok. A Canes lineout has more chance of not leading to a try than scoring one, so it's better to attempt that to its inevitable conclusion (as we saw), than to force other opportunities?

                                        Yes. Going to golden point also has more chance of losing than winning.

                                        There's only two teams competing in golden point...

                                        Yes, but the Crusaders are a far better team, thus giving them a greater than 50% chance of winning in golden point. I don't believe you think the Hurricanes are as good as the Crusaders, or would be as likely to win from that point.

                                        Even if you think golden point is a 50/50, Jordie still has to kick the goal to take us there. Unless you give him a 100% chance of doing so, there was a sub 50% the Hurricanes won from that position.

                                        I understand now. You weren't going to win so why delay the inevitable, get it over in normal time!

                                        That’s exactly what I’m reading too.

                                        We’ll only get one chance as we aren’t good enough. Fair enough.

                                        What I find hilarious is that the Canes were 6/10 against the Saders for line outs won.

                                        But the kick is the risky option.

                                        Our lineout is much better than that normally though.

                                        gt12G Offline
                                        gt12G Offline
                                        gt12
                                        wrote on last edited by
                                        #372

                                        @hydro11 said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                        @gt12 said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                        @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                        @hydro11 said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                        @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                        @hydro11 said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                        @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                        @hydro11 said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                        @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                        @hydro11 said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                        @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                        @hydro11 said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                        @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                        @bones said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                        @cgrant said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                        It was a very kickable penalty. How many chances to get the 3 points : more than 70% IMO. How many chances to score a try via the lineout ? 20% maybe ?

                                        I'm struggling to understand this concept that it's impossible for the canes to win in normal time, yet so much more acceptable they'd win in extra time. It doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

                                        Trying to score from something they're bad at (lineout - maul) against a team excellent at defending a maul. Extra time provides unstructured opportunities which is something the Canes are reasonable at.

                                        It's not just a maul though. Even if you don't score from the maul, you should be able to recycle and get an unstructured opportunity 5 metres out.

                                        Did they..?

                                        Going for the lineout has less than a 50% chance of success, so can't use the fact it failed to prove your point. It has to be based on the likeliness at the time.

                                        Let me get this logic right: A Canes lineout has more chance of losing possession that winning it, so it's better to attempt that to its inevitable conclusion (as we saw), than to force other opportunities?

                                        No. The lineout has less than 50% chance of leading to a try. Obviously, we have more than 50% chance of winning the ball back.

                                        Ok. A Canes lineout has more chance of not leading to a try than scoring one, so it's better to attempt that to its inevitable conclusion (as we saw), than to force other opportunities?

                                        Yes. Going to golden point also has more chance of losing than winning.

                                        There's only two teams competing in golden point...

                                        Yes, but the Crusaders are a far better team, thus giving them a greater than 50% chance of winning in golden point. I don't believe you think the Hurricanes are as good as the Crusaders, or would be as likely to win from that point.

                                        Even if you think golden point is a 50/50, Jordie still has to kick the goal to take us there. Unless you give him a 100% chance of doing so, there was a sub 50% the Hurricanes won from that position.

                                        I understand now. You weren't going to win so why delay the inevitable, get it over in normal time!

                                        That’s exactly what I’m reading too.

                                        We’ll only get one chance as we aren’t good enough. Fair enough.

                                        What I find hilarious is that the Canes were 6/10 against the Saders for line outs won.

                                        But the kick is the risky option.

                                        Our lineout is much better than that normally though.

                                        You went 8/10 in your first game, so let's split the difference.

                                        1 Reply Last reply
                                        0
                                        • H hydro11

                                          @gt12 said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                          @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                          @hydro11 said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                          @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                          @hydro11 said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                          @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                          @hydro11 said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                          @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                          @hydro11 said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                          @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                          @hydro11 said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                          @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                          @bones said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                          @cgrant said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                          It was a very kickable penalty. How many chances to get the 3 points : more than 70% IMO. How many chances to score a try via the lineout ? 20% maybe ?

                                          I'm struggling to understand this concept that it's impossible for the canes to win in normal time, yet so much more acceptable they'd win in extra time. It doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

                                          Trying to score from something they're bad at (lineout - maul) against a team excellent at defending a maul. Extra time provides unstructured opportunities which is something the Canes are reasonable at.

                                          It's not just a maul though. Even if you don't score from the maul, you should be able to recycle and get an unstructured opportunity 5 metres out.

                                          Did they..?

                                          Going for the lineout has less than a 50% chance of success, so can't use the fact it failed to prove your point. It has to be based on the likeliness at the time.

                                          Let me get this logic right: A Canes lineout has more chance of losing possession that winning it, so it's better to attempt that to its inevitable conclusion (as we saw), than to force other opportunities?

                                          No. The lineout has less than 50% chance of leading to a try. Obviously, we have more than 50% chance of winning the ball back.

                                          Ok. A Canes lineout has more chance of not leading to a try than scoring one, so it's better to attempt that to its inevitable conclusion (as we saw), than to force other opportunities?

                                          Yes. Going to golden point also has more chance of losing than winning.

                                          There's only two teams competing in golden point...

                                          Yes, but the Crusaders are a far better team, thus giving them a greater than 50% chance of winning in golden point. I don't believe you think the Hurricanes are as good as the Crusaders, or would be as likely to win from that point.

                                          Even if you think golden point is a 50/50, Jordie still has to kick the goal to take us there. Unless you give him a 100% chance of doing so, there was a sub 50% the Hurricanes won from that position.

                                          I understand now. You weren't going to win so why delay the inevitable, get it over in normal time!

                                          That’s exactly what I’m reading too.

                                          We’ll only get one chance as we aren’t good enough. Fair enough.

                                          What I find hilarious is that the Canes were 6/10 against the Saders for line outs won.

                                          But the kick is the risky option.

                                          Our lineout is much better than that normally though.

                                          HigginsH Offline
                                          HigginsH Offline
                                          Higgins
                                          wrote on last edited by
                                          #373

                                          @hydro11 said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                          @gt12 said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                          @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                          @hydro11 said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                          @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                          @hydro11 said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                          @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                          @hydro11 said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                          @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                          @hydro11 said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                          @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                          @hydro11 said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                          @antipodean said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                          @bones said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                          @cgrant said in Crusaders v Hurricanes:

                                          It was a very kickable penalty. How many chances to get the 3 points : more than 70% IMO. How many chances to score a try via the lineout ? 20% maybe ?

                                          I'm struggling to understand this concept that it's impossible for the canes to win in normal time, yet so much more acceptable they'd win in extra time. It doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

                                          Trying to score from something they're bad at (lineout - maul) against a team excellent at defending a maul. Extra time provides unstructured opportunities which is something the Canes are reasonable at.

                                          It's not just a maul though. Even if you don't score from the maul, you should be able to recycle and get an unstructured opportunity 5 metres out.

                                          Did they..?

                                          Going for the lineout has less than a 50% chance of success, so can't use the fact it failed to prove your point. It has to be based on the likeliness at the time.

                                          Let me get this logic right: A Canes lineout has more chance of losing possession that winning it, so it's better to attempt that to its inevitable conclusion (as we saw), than to force other opportunities?

                                          No. The lineout has less than 50% chance of leading to a try. Obviously, we have more than 50% chance of winning the ball back.

                                          Ok. A Canes lineout has more chance of not leading to a try than scoring one, so it's better to attempt that to its inevitable conclusion (as we saw), than to force other opportunities?

                                          Yes. Going to golden point also has more chance of losing than winning.

                                          There's only two teams competing in golden point...

                                          Yes, but the Crusaders are a far better team, thus giving them a greater than 50% chance of winning in golden point. I don't believe you think the Hurricanes are as good as the Crusaders, or would be as likely to win from that point.

                                          Even if you think golden point is a 50/50, Jordie still has to kick the goal to take us there. Unless you give him a 100% chance of doing so, there was a sub 50% the Hurricanes won from that position.

                                          I understand now. You weren't going to win so why delay the inevitable, get it over in normal time!

                                          That’s exactly what I’m reading too.

                                          We’ll only get one chance as we aren’t good enough. Fair enough.

                                          What I find hilarious is that the Canes were 6/10 against the Saders for line outs won.

                                          But the kick is the risky option.

                                          Our lineout is much better than that normally though.

                                          Ahhh that poor display must have contributed to J. Blackwell's dropping from the side that fronted against Moana Pasifika.

                                          1 Reply Last reply
                                          0
                                          Reply
                                          • Reply as topic
                                          Log in to reply
                                          • Oldest to Newest
                                          • Newest to Oldest
                                          • Most Votes


                                          • Login

                                          • Don't have an account? Register

                                          • Search
                                          • First post
                                            Last post
                                          0
                                          • Categories
                                          • Search