modeled the difficulty of each band 1's path to winning the cup based on current rankings:
South Africa 
– Pool B, reaches final
Route: Pool B → R16 v Uruguay → QF v NZ → SF v Ireland → Final v England
Stage Opponent Opp Rank Opp Rating Difficulty (0–10)
Pool vs Italy Italy 10 78.98 5.7
Pool vs Georgia Georgia 13 73.18 4.1
Pool vs Romania Romania 22 61.50 0.8
R16 vs Uruguay Uruguay 14 69.19 3.0
QF vs New Zealand New Zealand 2 90.33 9.0
SF vs Ireland Ireland 4 87.97 8.3
Final vs England England 3 89.41 8.7
England 
– Pool F, reaches final
Route: Pool F → R16 v Japan → QF v Australia → SF v France → Final v South Africa
Stage Opponent Opp Rank Opp Rating Difficulty (0–10)
Pool vs Wales Wales 11 74.23 4.4
Pool vs Tonga Tonga 18 66.66 2.2
Pool vs Zimbabwe Zimbabwe 24 58.80 0.0
R16 vs Japan Japan 12 74.09 4.4
QF vs Australia Australia 7 81.53 6.5
SF vs France France 5 87.24 8.1
Final vs S. Africa South Africa 1 93.94 10.0
New Zealand 
– Pool A, loses in QF to SA
Route: Pool A → R16 v USA → QF v South Africa
Stage Opponent Opp Rank Opp Rating Difficulty (0–10)
Pool vs Australia Australia 7 81.53 6.5
Pool vs Chile Chile 17 66.72 2.3
Pool vs Hong Kong China Hong Kong China 23 59.61 0.2
R16 vs USA USA 16 68.26 2.7
QF vs South Africa South Africa 1 93.94 10.0
Ireland 
– Pool D, loses in SF to SA
Route: Pool D → R16 v Spain → QF v Argentina → SF v South Africa
Stage Opponent Opp Rank Opp Rating Difficulty (0–10)
Pool vs Scotland Scotland 9 80.22 6.1
Pool vs Uruguay Uruguay 14 69.19 3.0
Pool vs Portugal Portugal 20 64.98 1.8
R16 vs Spain Spain 15 69.01 2.9
QF vs Argentina Argentina 6 84.97 7.5
SF vs South Africa South Africa 1 93.94 10.0
France 
– Pool E, loses in SF to England
Route: Pool E → R16 v Wales → QF v Scotland → SF v England
Stage Opponent Opp Rank Opp Rating Difficulty (0–10)
Pool vs Japan Japan 12 74.09 4.4
Pool vs USA USA 16 68.26 2.7
Pool vs Samoa Samoa 19 66.42 2.2
R16 vs Wales Wales 11 74.23 4.4
QF vs Scotland Scotland 9 80.22 6.1
SF vs England England 3 89.41 8.7
Argentina 
– Pool C, loses in QF to Ireland
Route: Pool C → R16 v Georgia → QF v Ireland
Stage Opponent Opp Rank Opp Rating Difficulty (0–10)
Pool vs Fiji Fiji 8 81.14 6.4
Pool vs Spain Spain 15 69.01 2.9
Pool vs Canada Canada 25 58.76 0.0
R16 vs Georgia Georgia 13 73.18 4.1
QF vs Ireland Ireland 4 87.97 8.3
South Africa
Path assumed:
Pool B (Italy, Georgia, Romania) → R16 Uruguay → QF New Zealand → SF Ireland → Final England (win).
Average pool-stage opponent rating:
≈ 71.22 (mid-table Tier-1/Tier-2 mix)
Average KO opponent rating (R16 + QF + SF):
≈ 82.50 (NZ + IRE drags this right up into top-6 territory)
Average difficulty index (0–10) across all pre-final matches:
≈ 5.14 (your original “~5.15”)
England
Path assumed:
Pool F (Wales, Tonga, Zimbabwe) → R16 Japan → QF Australia → SF France → Final South Africa (win in England’s scenario).
Average pool-stage opponent rating:
≈ 66.56 (softest Band-1 pool on this model)
Average KO opponent rating (R16 + QF + SF):
≈ 80.95 (solid: JPN + AUS + FRA)
Average difficulty index (0–10) across all pre-final matches:
≈ 4.26
New Zealand
Path assumed:
Pool A (Australia, Chile, Hong Kong China) → R16 USA → QF South Africa (upset win) → SF Ireland → Final England (win in NZ’s scenario).
Average pool-stage opponent rating:
≈ 69.29
Average KO opponent rating (R16 + QF + SF):
≈ 83.39 (SA + IRE in the KOs is nasty)
Average difficulty index (0–10) across all pre-final matches:
≈ 5.00
Ireland
Path assumed:
Pool D (Scotland, Uruguay, Portugal) → R16 Spain → QF Argentina → SF South Africa (upset win) → Final England (win in Ireland’s scenario).
Average pool-stage opponent rating:
≈ 71.46 (very similar to SA’s pool)
Average KO opponent rating (R16 + QF + SF):
≈ 82.64
Average difficulty index (0–10) across all pre-final matches:
≈ 5.20
France
Path assumed:
Pool E (Japan, USA, Samoa) → R16 Wales → QF Scotland → SF England (upset win) → Final South Africa (win in France’s scenario).
Average pool-stage opponent rating:
≈ 69.59
Average KO opponent rating (R16 + QF + SF):
≈ 81.29
Average difficulty index (0–10) across all pre-final matches:
≈ 4.74
Argentina
Path assumed:
Pool C (Fiji, Spain, Canada) → R16 Georgia → QF Ireland (upset win) → SF South Africa (upset win) → Final England (win in Argentina’s scenario).
Average pool-stage opponent rating:
≈ 69.64
Average KO opponent rating (R16 + QF + SF):
≈ 85.03 (the highest of all Band-1 teams – IRE + SA back-to-back)
Average difficulty index (0–10) across all pre-final matches:
≈ 5.28 (hardest overall run on this scale)
