Poll: Super Rugby 2025 Top 6
-
@Canes4life said in Poll: Super Rugby 2025 Top 6:
The big thing for the Highlanders is they have the Crusaders and Chiefs twice and the Hurricanes away. They'll need to win at least two of those games to have a chance IMO.
Exactly, but I think they will do enough to put themselves in that position. Should be aiming to win 2/3 against the Brumbies, Force & Drua, which would leave them with four wins and four losses. Beat Moana at home and you're in the ballpark. If we aren't good enough to win 2/6 games against the Crusaders, Chiefs & Canes across the season, then making the playoffs is futile, when considering we will have lost to the Tahs & Reds (likely both in the playoffs).
-
@nzzp said in Poll: Super Rugby 2025 Top 6:
@Canes4life not quite elimintae I don't think but close to it.
Blues run home is
Canes H
MP H
Sith A
Reds A
Force H
Drua A
MP A
Tahs HWin the MPx2, Drua, Force ad Tahs and you're up to 6 wins. Probably need two more to scrape into the top 6 with an 8-8 record. You have to target in order Canes at home, Reds away, Drua away, Sith away. but 2-2 from those and you're there or thereabouts.
So not impossible, but that home loss to the Brumbies was a killer for us.
The question you have to ask, is whether a team with 1 win in however many games then goes and wins that many in a row. It is like the Crusaders last year... just doesn't happen.
-
@frugby said in Poll: Super Rugby 2025 Top 6:
@nzzp said in Poll: Super Rugby 2025 Top 6:
@Canes4life not quite elimintae I don't think but close to it.
Blues run home is
Canes H
MP H
Sith A
Reds A
Force H
Drua A
MP A
Tahs HWin the MPx2, Drua, Force ad Tahs and you're up to 6 wins. Probably need two more to scrape into the top 6 with an 8-8 record. You have to target in order Canes at home, Reds away, Drua away, Sith away. but 2-2 from those and you're there or thereabouts.
So not impossible, but that home loss to the Brumbies was a killer for us.
The question you have to ask, is whether a team with 1 win in however many games then goes and wins that many in a row. It is like the Crusaders last year... just doesn't happen.
We've played the hardest teams first, and been competitive (last embarassment at EP aside). Compared to a fired up Highlanders, Saders, Chiefsx2 the run home looks way more feasible.
I guess that's why we watch sport though - let's see how it goes! I suspect Blues finish on 5-6 wins (or maybe more)
-
@frugby said in Poll: Super Rugby 2025 Top 6:
@nzzp said in Poll: Super Rugby 2025 Top 6:
@Canes4life not quite elimintae I don't think but close to it.
Blues run home is
Canes H
MP H
Sith A
Reds A
Force H
Drua A
MP A
Tahs HWin the MPx2, Drua, Force ad Tahs and you're up to 6 wins. Probably need two more to scrape into the top 6 with an 8-8 record. You have to target in order Canes at home, Reds away, Drua away, Sith away. but 2-2 from those and you're there or thereabouts.
So not impossible, but that home loss to the Brumbies was a killer for us.
The question you have to ask, is whether a team with 1 win in however many games then goes and wins that many in a row. It is like the Crusaders last year... just doesn't happen.
That was largely because the Crusaders' injury woes never eased. Look at them now that they have more or less a full contingent of players to pick from.
I wouldn't be surprised if the Blues do get themselves back into the play-off equation. When was the last time a Super Rugby team went from champions to missing the finals in the space of one season?
-
@Mr-Fish said in Poll: Super Rugby 2025 Top 6:
@frugby said in Poll: Super Rugby 2025 Top 6:
@nzzp said in Poll: Super Rugby 2025 Top 6:
@Canes4life not quite elimintae I don't think but close to it.
Blues run home is
Canes H
MP H
Sith A
Reds A
Force H
Drua A
MP A
Tahs HWin the MPx2, Drua, Force ad Tahs and you're up to 6 wins. Probably need two more to scrape into the top 6 with an 8-8 record. You have to target in order Canes at home, Reds away, Drua away, Sith away. but 2-2 from those and you're there or thereabouts.
So not impossible, but that home loss to the Brumbies was a killer for us.
The question you have to ask, is whether a team with 1 win in however many games then goes and wins that many in a row. It is like the Crusaders last year... just doesn't happen.
That was largely because the Crusaders' injury woes never eased. Look at them now that they have more or less a full contingent of players to pick from.
I wouldn't be surprised if the Blues do get themselves back into the play-off equation. When was the last time a Super Rugby team went from champions to missing the finals in the space of one season?
This has to be satire, because it happened last season
-
@nzzp said in Poll: Super Rugby 2025 Top 6:
@frugby said in Poll: Super Rugby 2025 Top 6:
@nzzp said in Poll: Super Rugby 2025 Top 6:
@Canes4life not quite elimintae I don't think but close to it.
Blues run home is
Canes H
MP H
Sith A
Reds A
Force H
Drua A
MP A
Tahs HWin the MPx2, Drua, Force ad Tahs and you're up to 6 wins. Probably need two more to scrape into the top 6 with an 8-8 record. You have to target in order Canes at home, Reds away, Drua away, Sith away. but 2-2 from those and you're there or thereabouts.
So not impossible, but that home loss to the Brumbies was a killer for us.
The question you have to ask, is whether a team with 1 win in however many games then goes and wins that many in a row. It is like the Crusaders last year... just doesn't happen.
We've played the hardest teams first, and been competitive (last embarassment at EP aside). Compared to a fired up Highlanders, Saders, Chiefsx2 the run home looks way more feasible.
I guess that's why we watch sport though - let's see how it goes! I suspect Blues finish on 5-6 wins (or maybe more)
Yeah for sure - but that loss to the Brumbies was the kicker... and that performance last week was abysmal. I think seven wins, with BPs looks like it is going to be the marker for sixth, so if the Blues lose to the Canes, they've got to win 2/3 in Christchurch, Brisbane and Fiji. I'd wager most teams would struggle to do that, even if they were the best in the comp!
-
@frugby said in Poll: Super Rugby 2025 Top 6:
@Mr-Fish said in Poll: Super Rugby 2025 Top 6:
@frugby said in Poll: Super Rugby 2025 Top 6:
@nzzp said in Poll: Super Rugby 2025 Top 6:
@Canes4life not quite elimintae I don't think but close to it.
Blues run home is
Canes H
MP H
Sith A
Reds A
Force H
Drua A
MP A
Tahs HWin the MPx2, Drua, Force ad Tahs and you're up to 6 wins. Probably need two more to scrape into the top 6 with an 8-8 record. You have to target in order Canes at home, Reds away, Drua away, Sith away. but 2-2 from those and you're there or thereabouts.
So not impossible, but that home loss to the Brumbies was a killer for us.
The question you have to ask, is whether a team with 1 win in however many games then goes and wins that many in a row. It is like the Crusaders last year... just doesn't happen.
That was largely because the Crusaders' injury woes never eased. Look at them now that they have more or less a full contingent of players to pick from.
I wouldn't be surprised if the Blues do get themselves back into the play-off equation. When was the last time a Super Rugby team went from champions to missing the finals in the space of one season?
This has to be satire, because it happened last season
And what's changed for the Crusaders since last season...?
-
@nzzp said in Poll: Super Rugby 2025 Top 6:
@nonpartizan said in Poll: Super Rugby 2025 Top 6:
@ACT-Crusader said in Poll: Super Rugby 2025 Top 6:
@nonpartizan said in Poll: Super Rugby 2025 Top 6:
@WestieFella said in Poll: Super Rugby 2025 Top 6:
@Canes4life said in Poll: Super Rugby 2025 Top 6:
Yeah I can see 5 working. Top team has a week off in the first round of the playoffs. 2-5 play the quarters. Top qualifiers play the semis and then the winner of each of those games plays in the final
Not sure how that would work, you'd end up with the #1 seed plus 2 winners of the quarters.
You could do this, I think.....
1st, 2nd and 3rd have a rest.... 4 plays 5 for right to play in the semis.
1 v 4/5
2 v 3In a 5 team system you still need an incentive of finishing as high as possible and rewarding the team that finishes on top of the table with a week off and a double chance. Teams ranked 2nd and 3rd don’t get a week off but do get a double chance.
The AFL (and former VFL) many years ago had a top 5 finals series over a 4 week period.
That seems like a good system.
it takes 4 weeks for a 5 team playoff! with only 1 game on two weekends, and the round robin winner potentially playing bye-play-bye-play.
I really don't love it; can't see it generating the amount of TV to fund it.
The root cause is there are only 11 teams. That should be 12 or more, then a 6 team playoff makes sense.
For the years they ran the top 5 system (1972 - 1990) the grand final winners were
1st (defeated 2nd)
2nd (defeated 3rd)
1st (defeated 2nd)
2nd (defeated 1st)
2nd (defeated 3rd)
3rd (defeated 1st)
2nd (defeated 1st)
1st (defeated 3rd)
3rd (defeated 5th)
1st (defeated 2nd)
3rd (defeated 1st)
2nd (defeated 4th)
1st (defeated 2nd)
1st (defeated 3rd)
1st (defeated 3rd)
1st (defeated 2nd)
1st (defeated 5th)
1st (defeated 3rd)
2nd (defeated 1st)1st: 15 GF / 10 wins
2nd: 11 GF / 6 wins
3rd: 9 GF / 3 wins
4th: 1 GF / 0 wins
5th: 2 GF / 0 winsI tend to think that the cream will rise to the top no matter what the system.
Definitely take the TV broadcast point which wouldn’t be easy to overcome in the climate of more content is king.
-
@ACT-Crusader good call, and good post. Useful data! And yeah, it's hard to win away from home, and good sides tend to get home advantage.
-
-
@Machpants said in Poll: Super Rugby 2025 Top 6:
Godfrey is out for the canes, I want to change my vote
Yeah I think the Canes are cooked. You can’t win shit without a good 10. Good news for the Highlanders and Blues as it’s unlikely the Canes will do much with an attacking 10. The fact Proctor is still out for another 4-6 weeks makes things even worse.
I’d like to change my vote and say the Blues will sneak in over the Canes.
