Cricket: WTC Final Oz vs SA
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@Chris-B said in Cricket: WTC Final Oz vs SA:
Looks like being another sunny day and still 24 overs to the new ball. If the Aussies get it there should only be a handful of runs required.
Looks mainly about whether SA can hold their nerve.
They've done extremely well to fight back - I doubted they had it in them.
Yeh but thought those niggly runs from Starc would have completely derailed things. Not to be. They’ve done brilliantly so far.
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@nzzp said in Cricket: WTC Final Oz vs SA:
@MN5 said in Cricket: WTC Final Oz vs SA:
Oz to still win pretty comfortably.
You'd think so, but chasing a low total you just need one person to go big and it's done. I like low scoring games - runs are properly valuable and the bowlers are in the game. Better than 19 sixes in an innings ...
Well.
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@MN5 I have never seen a better bowler at Lord's from the Pavilion End (and down the slope) than Glenn McGrath. His impeccable line and length and seam movement made him devastating.
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@Chris-B said in Cricket: WTC Final Oz vs SA:
Looks like being another sunny day and still 24 overs to the new ball. If the Aussies get it there should only be a handful of runs required.
Looks mainly about whether SA can hold their nerve.
They've done extremely well to fight back - I doubted they had it in them.
Rain and lots of it through overnight. The atmospheric conditions are going to be very different this morning to yesterday. If the Australian bowler can hit the seam, especially bowling down the slope, there will be movement, especially in the first hour.
After that it's going to be sunny intervals, some cloud, 22 degrees at peak. Decent batting conditions but not as good as yesterday. The South Africans still have lots of batting to come and should do this before the new ball arrives, but nothing in Cricket is certain.
In summary, Australia can win this if they get an early break through or two, but probably need two wickets in the first half hour. Perfect line and length is required. They really don't have many runs left to play with.
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Yeah first half hour or so will be crucial. Batters will be readjusting to today's conditions, and any nerves will be the highest at the start of the innings. Once they get through a few overs all that will ease.
That said, this is an epic choke if South Africa lose from here. As a stats nerd, I have a formula for the 'life' left in a chase, which is runs remaining divided by wickets remaining minus two. If that's 10 or less, then it's game over. More than that the batting team might be the favourites, but the bowling team have a chance. Right now it's 11.5, but 9 more runs gets it below 10.
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Oh man that potentially sets up the juiciest final day. The cricketing worlds biggest chokers have given themselves a chance at the biggest choke in their history to really cement that legacy. If there has been rain overnight then conditions will be more bowler friendly in the first session,. and if there's any bowling lineup in history that could pull this off, it's these bastards. An early wicket or two and she's going to be all on, I hope Aus have been practicing their choke sledges.
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@No-Quarter said in Cricket: WTC Final Oz vs SA:
Oh man that potentially sets up the juiciest final day. The cricketing world’s biggest chokers have given themselves a chance at the biggest choke in their history to really cement that legacy. If there has been rain overnight then conditions will be more bowler friendly in the first session,. and if there's any bowling lineup in history that could pull this off, it's these bastards. An early wicket or two and she's going to be all on, I hope Aus have been practicing their choke sledges.
Outstanding summary.
It just takes one of that Aussie bowling line up to get their tails up for shit to get really interesting.
SA huge favourites from here on in though.
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Best UK odds are 20-1 for Oz which is about right. Starc, Hazelwood and Cummins are more than capable of running through them this morning, but SA are the firm favourite. 69 runs is not much to chase on a 4th day pitch with 8 wickets in hand.
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@sparky said in Cricket: WTC Final Oz vs SA:
Best UK odds are 20-1 for Oz which is about right. Starc, Hazelwood and Cummins are more than capable of running through them this morning, but SA are the firm favourite. 69 runs is not much to chase on a 4th day pitch with 8 wickets in hand.
You're forgetting Lyon, 3rd highest wicket taker in Australian history.
Starc 4th, Cummins 8th and Hazelwood 10th. That's some pedigree all in the same team at the same time.
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@MN5 No, the pitch wasn't taking much spin yesterday. I thought if anything Australia over bowled Nathan Lyons yesterday.
On the Lords slope, trust your quicks down the slope. Use the slower bowler up the slope, but don't have gaps in the field.
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@sparky said in Cricket: WTC Final Oz vs SA:
@MN5 No, the pitch wasn't taking much spin yesterday. I thought if anything Australia over bowled Nathan Lyons yesterday.
On the Lords slope, trust your quicks down the slope. Use the slower bowler up the slope, but don't have gaps in the field.
Fair enough.
I note Cameron Green hasn't bowled a single over this test.
Is he already a Ben Stokes type all rounder, ie one who doesn't bowl ?
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Three hours to the start of Day Four, but recent cloud cover this morning in North London. It'll swing and seam I reckon.
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@sparky said in Cricket: WTC Final Oz vs SA:
Three hours to the start of Day Four, but recent cloud cover this morning in North London. It'll swing and seam I reckon.
You have to love modern test cricket and the fact we're 100% sure of a result in this one.
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If you look at the five wicket hauls at Lord's since the late 1970s they've been overwhelming by medium fast bowlers or quick bowlers rather than spinners.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_international_cricket_five-wicket_hauls_at_Lord's
None of Warne, Muralitharan or Lyon achieved five-wickets in a Test innings at Lords.
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Cummins gets an early wicket, but the weather conditions are improving dramatically and SA only need 55 runs now.
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Hazelwood really accurate this morning and bowling maiden after maiden, but no wicket yet.
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Australia reviewing an on-field no LBW decision. Looks speculative.
