Highlanders 2026
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@handa457 said in Highlanders 2026:
@Higgins I think it’s actually a case of being pushed into senior professional rugby too early. People forget that in 2018 and 2019 we signed TUJ, Pari Pari Parkinson, Fakatava, Ayden Johnstone, Marino M, and Josh Scott. Outside of Johnstone, all of them spent the next few seasons wrecked by injury. I think there’s a case to be made that the body probably isn’t even ready for the rigours of Super Rugby before the age of 22 or 23, and pushing a young bloke into that environment too early can ruin development long term.
I think big Pari Pari is the best example. He was an absolute talent who, from what I’ve heard, was actually going to be named in the 2020 All Blacks squad but got injured in his final game for the Landers that season. Tupou Vaa’i got picked instead, and Pari Pari never really bounced back from the injury. You could argue that a lot of Fakatava’s issues come down to the same injury problems as well.
There is a separate thread for this, but this is similar to the argument that some of us make that the current pathways are not fit for purpose.
Since Super sides are signing players up younger, we should really have a pathway through Super rugby that has recognition (i.e., un U20 championship that actually gets TV time and would be something fans can follow), rather than pushing these guys straight across to NPC or straight into Super rugby,
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Regarding the injuries I think that the players are just bigger now weight wise and the collisions mean players are more likely to get injured.
There are players who will try to be physically dominant as a big part of their game and they tend to accumulate more injuries. Players like Cane and Tuipulotu. Parkinson was a guy who used to go out and look to physically dominate people from what I saw.
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@Landers92 Awesome news! Great wee player, well deserved.
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With a number of the young Otago loose forwards stepping up this year and the Highlanders number 8-shirt still up for grabs in all likelihood, I wanted to take a closer look at some of the numbers from the NPC and see whether anyone stands out in particular.
What is important for a number 8?
The number 8-position and its requirements have obviously changed throughout the years but today, I think, two particular traits stand out. The 8 must provide go-forward and lay a platform for the rest of his forwards. And, secondly, a number 8 should be able to hold onto the ball. An 8 that has a high turnover-rate is like a winger who is easily pushed into touch or an openside who commits the same penalty twice; it’s the position’s cardinal sin.This becomes clearer if we take a look at some of the Super Rugby number 8’s running around in the NPC currently.
Lio-Willie, Flanders and Sotutu all average between 17 and 23 carries per turnover, while they produce around 30 to 35 post-contact metres per 80 minutes (all data originate from the 2025 Bunnings NPC).
These number 8’s, in other words, don’t often lose the ball while taking it into contact, while they’re also able to generate consistent go-forward in the game.
How do the Highlanders candidates stack up?
Looking at the potential Highlanders’ candidates – Broughton, Howden, Withy, Stodart, Haig and Casey (I’ve left out Renton for now because he hasn’t played in this year’s NPC) – a few things quickly stand out.
Broughton is probably the candidate which would most conventionally suit the role, as he produces very similar numbers to SR number 8’s like Lio-Willie, Sotutu and Flanders. And while Howden is able to generate go-forward for the Turbos, his turnover numbers are just too high for the position, with only 7.3 carries per turnover.
Both Haig and Withy are also unlikely candidates for the jersey on the basis of these numbers, as both produce quite low post-contact metres per 80 minutes while not being particularly safe with ball-in-hand either.
The outliers
The most interesting options, however, are the two outliers, Casey and Stodart. While Stodart doesn’t rack up the post-contact metres as he probably would want, his turnover rate is remarkably low, at nearly 37 carries per turnover. He might be an interesting option if Joseph wants to play a possession game, with a high number of carries in close to consistently pressure the opposition.Still, the most fascinating option has to be Lucas Casey, who is putting up excellent numbers both with his post-contact metres per 80 (48.9) and his carries-per-turnover (20.2). The Highlanders have been crying out for a volume-carrier who can generate consistent post-contact metres for a few seasons now, and in Lucas Casey it looks like they might have found him.
A loose forward trio of Casey at 8, Withy at openside and Howden at blindside could be an intriguing combination for the 2026 campaign.
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@Mauss said in Highlanders 2026:
With a number of the young Otago loose forwards stepping up this year and the Highlanders number 8-shirt still up for grabs in all likelihood, I wanted to take a closer look at some of the numbers from the NPC and see whether anyone stands out in particular.
What is important for a number 8?
The number 8-position and its requirements have obviously changed throughout the years but today, I think, two particular traits stand out. The 8 must provide go-forward and lay a platform for the rest of his forwards. And, secondly, a number 8 should be able to hold onto the ball. An 8 that has a high turnover-rate is like a winger who is easily pushed into touch or an openside who commits the same penalty twice; it’s the position’s cardinal sin.This becomes clearer if we take a look at some of the Super Rugby number 8’s running around in the NPC currently.
Lio-Willie, Flanders and Sotutu all average between 17 and 23 carries per turnover, while they produce around 30 to 35 post-contact metres per 80 minutes (all data originate from the 2025 Bunnings NPC).
These number 8’s, in other words, don’t often lose the ball while taking it into contact, while they’re also able to generate consistent go-forward in the game.
How do the Highlanders candidates stack up?
Looking at the potential Highlanders’ candidates – Broughton, Howden, Withy, Stodart, Haig and Casey (I’ve left out Renton for now because he hasn’t played in this year’s NPC) – a few things quickly stand out.Broughton is probably the candidate which would most conventionally suit the role, as he produces very similar numbers to SR number 8’s like Lio-Willie, Sotutu and Flanders. And while Howden is able to generate go-forward for the Turbos, his turnover numbers are just too high for the position, with only 7.3 carries per turnover.
Both Haig and Withy are also unlikely candidates for the jersey on the basis of these numbers, as both produce quite low post-contact metres per 80 minutes while not being particularly safe with ball-in-hand either.
The outliers
The most interesting options, however, are the two outliers, Casey and Stodart. While Stodart doesn’t rack up the post-contact metres as he probably would want, his turnover rate is remarkably low, at nearly 37 carries per turnover. He might be an interesting option if Joseph wants to play a possession game, with a high number of carries in close to consistently pressure the opposition.Still, the most fascinating option has to be Lucas Casey, who is putting up excellent numbers both with his post-contact metres per 80 (48.9) and his carries-per-turnover (20.2). The Highlanders have been crying out for a volume-carrier who can generate consistent post-contact metres for a few seasons now, and in Lucas Casey it looks like they might have found him.
A loose forward trio of Casey at 8, Withy at openside and Howden at blindside could be an intriguing combination for the 2026 campaign.
Great post. Where do you get your stats?
I would only say that on that loose forward trio, the Highlanders ruck success was the worst in the competition last season, we got blasted on both sides of the ruck. Off RugbyPass, not sure how accurate these stats are so welcome more accurate data, Howden, Casey, Stoddard all have very low ruck success rates compared to Haig and Withy (half most have).
What Haig brings, when he’s on form and injury free, is exceptional ruck work as well as v good set piece work. So, I’d personally like to see Haig at 6, Withy at 7 Howden at 8. This brings the best balance to the backrow imo. With a 6-2 bench split, we can afford to have Casey and Stoddard on the bench which gives us the most versatility.
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@jimmyb said in Highlanders 2026:
Great post. Where do you get your stats?
The raw data I got from RugbyPass, both the player pages as well as the match pages. The stat I was most interested in – turnovers lost – is not that easy to find, so I had to pick through each match page in order to retrieve them. The stats used here – carries-per-turnover and post-contact metres per 80 – are stats I compiled through the RugbyPass raw metrics.
Off RugbyPass, not sure how accurate these stats are so welcome more accurate data, Howden, Casey, Stoddard all have very low ruck success rates compared to Haig and Withy (half most have).
Are you basing this off the RugbyPass category, “ruck arrival effectiveness”? I find it a very confusing category, to be fair, as I don’t really have a clue what it precisely measures. I find Opta to be clearer in their use of breakdown stats. You can still look up the Highlanders numbers from the 2025 season, the success rate of players for both attacking and defensive rucks.
(if you type in ‘Highlanders’ in the search bar, you get the numbers for all the individual players in the team)
Club Rugby Stats Hub 2024-25 | Opta Analyst
Our Club Rugby Stats for the 2024-25 season includes individual player and team advanced stats broken down by category.
Both Howden and Stodart had a higher rate of effectiveness at clearing attacking rucks (90 and 85% success rates, respectively) than either Withy or Haig (both around 84%). I don’t know how Casey will go at the breakdown at SRP-level but so far he hasn’t looked poor in that area to me. I also suspect the Highlanders' struggles at the breakdown were closely related to their forwards' inability to dominate the collision area. Having a reliable yet dynamic carrier would help with this.
All that said, I think Haig can also be a good fit at blindside, even if he’s struggled a bit for form this year. I personally wouldn’t pick Howden at 8, for reasons mentioned above. Turning the ball over every 7 carries is not really sustainable for an 8 when you’re expected to be the primary ball carrier.
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Quality post as always @Mauss
The effectiveness of the players will improve with experience and development. The loosie group is still relatively young compared to most other franchises. I have full faith they will get better. Capability isn't static. The skillset will evolve.
We should see a horses for courses approach to our trio. Much like what the Chiefs did this year.
During the season we could see any combination of
- Haig/Howden/Stodart
- Lasaqa/Casey/Withy
- Broughton/Withy/Stodart
@frugby sad to hear TUJ is going. Seems to be a well liked member of the squad. Likely to clear a spot for Pasitoa.
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I'd definitely give Casey a slot whether it be 7 or 8.
Probably I'd go 6. Howden/Haig, 7. Casey, 8. Broughton with Howden/Haig/ Lasaqa/Withy on the bench.
Maybe Withy might have a breakout season with some good experience but I feel like he's kind of reached his ceiling. He seems like an Adrian Choat like player who is a very solid contributor, and needed/valuable to the squad but is not quite good enough to command a permanent starting slot.
Broughton is a clever rugby player with a high work rate.
Stoddard is an option and I suspect that his post contact metres are lower and with less turnovers because he carries much closer to the ruck compared to a Casey.
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@brodean said in Highlanders 2026:
He's clearly been playing better than Lakai in this years NPC
I see what you've done there. Cheeky comparing Casey to a player that's barely played NPC this year. May I add Lakai was the player of the match in one of his few appearances, and Wellington never lost when he played.
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@Canes4life said in Highlanders 2026:
@brodean said in Highlanders 2026:
He's clearly been playing better than Lakai in this years NPC
I see what you've done there. Comparing Casey to a player that's barely played NPC isn't exactly a fair comparison. May I add Lakai was the player of the match in one of his few appearances and Wellington never lost when he played.
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@gt12 said in Highlanders 2026:
@Canes4life said in Highlanders 2026:
@brodean said in Highlanders 2026:
He's clearly been playing better than Lakai in this years NPC
I see what you've done there. Comparing Casey to a player that's barely played NPC isn't exactly a fair comparison. May I add Lakai was the player of the match in one of his few appearances and Wellington never lost when he played.
To be fair, he could have chosen a raft of other underperforming 7s in the NPC to compare Casey to, Lakai's arguably been Wellington's best player (when available).
Say inaccurate shit, you're going to get a response. I'd expect the same if I started making shit up about Highlanders players in the Hurricanes thread that simply wasn't true.
Casey's been the best 7 in the comp, I completely agree. But Lakai's also been dominant when he's been available.
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@Canes4life said in Highlanders 2026:
@gt12 said in Highlanders 2026:
@Canes4life said in Highlanders 2026:
@brodean said in Highlanders 2026:
He's clearly been playing better than Lakai in this years NPC
I see what you've done there. Comparing Casey to a player that's barely played NPC isn't exactly a fair comparison. May I add Lakai was the player of the match in one of his few appearances and Wellington never lost when he played.
To be fair, he could have chosen a raft of other underperforming 7s in the NPC to compare Casey to, Lakai's arguably been Wellington's best player (when available).
Say inaccurate shit, you're going to get a response. I'd expect the same if I started making shit up about Highlanders players in the Hurricanes thread that simply wasn't true.
Casey's been the best 7 in the comp, I completely agree. But Lakai's also been dominant when he's been available.
You contradict yourself here.
There's nothing inaccurate about what I said. I said Casey has been playing better and he has. Peter Lakai has still played 286 minutes and on a per 80 minute basis his stats aren't remotely close to Casey's.
For example Casey has played double the minutes of Lakai but he's beaten 31 defenders where Lakai has beaten 3.
9 linebreaks and 7 tries from Casey. Zero in both cases from Lakai.
333 post contact metres for Casey. 88 for Lakai.
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@brodean said in Highlanders 2026:
@Canes4life said in Highlanders 2026:
@gt12 said in Highlanders 2026:
@Canes4life said in Highlanders 2026:
@brodean said in Highlanders 2026:
He's clearly been playing better than Lakai in this years NPC
I see what you've done there. Comparing Casey to a player that's barely played NPC isn't exactly a fair comparison. May I add Lakai was the player of the match in one of his few appearances and Wellington never lost when he played.
To be fair, he could have chosen a raft of other underperforming 7s in the NPC to compare Casey to, Lakai's arguably been Wellington's best player (when available).
Say inaccurate shit, you're going to get a response. I'd expect the same if I started making shit up about Highlanders players in the Hurricanes thread that simply wasn't true.
Casey's been the best 7 in the comp, I completely agree. But Lakai's also been dominant when he's been available.
You contradict yourself here.
There's nothing inaccurate about what I said. I said Casey has been playing better and he has. Peter Lakai has still played 286 minutes and on a per 80 minute basis his stats aren't remotely close to Casey's.
For example Casey has played double the minutes of Lakai but he's beaten 31 defenders where Lakai has beaten 3.
9 linebreaks and 7 tries from Casey. Zero in both cases from Lakai.
333 post contact metres for Casey. 88 for Lakai.
Yeah, but you have to factor in that one player is in a dominant team and the other isn't. Casey has been involved in a very strong Otago team this year so has had a lot more opportunity with ball in hand. I'd imagine Lakai's numbers would be a lot higher if he was involved in a team that was dominating. Unfortunately, as a result of Wellington's recent success they lost a raft of players to higher honours so have had to heavily rely on club level players to fill a void this year and have been on the back foot for most of their games. Lakai's numbers might be low compared to Casey, but he was influential in all their wins this year (which weren't many).
Casey is playing like Lakai was when Wellington won their two titles (2022/2024), albeit going about their work in a slightly different manner. If Casey is outplaying Lakai that much in Super, I will happily eat my hat, but I highly doubt it.
I'm a big fan of Casey by the way and it's good to have another quality 7 coming through NZ Rugby. Another one from the Blues region that will likely star for another franchise.
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@Canes4life said in Highlanders 2026:
@brodean said in Highlanders 2026:
@Canes4life said in Highlanders 2026:
@gt12 said in Highlanders 2026:
@Canes4life said in Highlanders 2026:
@brodean said in Highlanders 2026:
He's clearly been playing better than Lakai in this years NPC
I see what you've done there. Comparing Casey to a player that's barely played NPC isn't exactly a fair comparison. May I add Lakai was the player of the match in one of his few appearances and Wellington never lost when he played.
To be fair, he could have chosen a raft of other underperforming 7s in the NPC to compare Casey to, Lakai's arguably been Wellington's best player (when available).
Say inaccurate shit, you're going to get a response. I'd expect the same if I started making shit up about Highlanders players in the Hurricanes thread that simply wasn't true.
Casey's been the best 7 in the comp, I completely agree. But Lakai's also been dominant when he's been available.
You contradict yourself here.
There's nothing inaccurate about what I said. I said Casey has been playing better and he has. Peter Lakai has still played 286 minutes and on a per 80 minute basis his stats aren't remotely close to Casey's.
For example Casey has played double the minutes of Lakai but he's beaten 31 defenders where Lakai has beaten 3.
9 linebreaks and 7 tries from Casey. Zero in both cases from Lakai.
333 post contact metres for Casey. 88 for Lakai.
Yeah, but you have to factor in that one player is in a dominant team and the other isn't. Casey has been involved in a very strong Otago team this year so has had a lot more opportunity with ball in hand. I'd imagine Lakai's numbers would be a lot higher if he was involved in a team that was dominating. Unfortunately, as a result of Wellington's recent success they lost a raft of players to higher honours so have had to heavily rely on club level players to fill a void this year and have been on the back foot for most of their games. Lakai's numbers might be low compared to Casey, but he was influential in all their wins this year (which weren't many).
Casey is playing like Lakai was when Wellington won their two titles (2022/2024), albeit going about their work in a slightly different manner. If Casey is outplaying Lakai that much in Super, I will happily eat my hat, but I highly doubt it.
Lakai didn't really play last year did he? He was with the AB's I thought?
Looking at Lakai's stats for 22 and 23 ( rugbypass ) they are still not as good as Casey's this year. This guy has massive potential.
But you're right, let's see how he goes at Super level.
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@brodean said in Highlanders 2026:
@Canes4life said in Highlanders 2026:
@brodean said in Highlanders 2026:
@Canes4life said in Highlanders 2026:
@gt12 said in Highlanders 2026:
@Canes4life said in Highlanders 2026:
@brodean said in Highlanders 2026:
He's clearly been playing better than Lakai in this years NPC
I see what you've done there. Comparing Casey to a player that's barely played NPC isn't exactly a fair comparison. May I add Lakai was the player of the match in one of his few appearances and Wellington never lost when he played.
To be fair, he could have chosen a raft of other underperforming 7s in the NPC to compare Casey to, Lakai's arguably been Wellington's best player (when available).
Say inaccurate shit, you're going to get a response. I'd expect the same if I started making shit up about Highlanders players in the Hurricanes thread that simply wasn't true.
Casey's been the best 7 in the comp, I completely agree. But Lakai's also been dominant when he's been available.
You contradict yourself here.
There's nothing inaccurate about what I said. I said Casey has been playing better and he has. Peter Lakai has still played 286 minutes and on a per 80 minute basis his stats aren't remotely close to Casey's.
For example Casey has played double the minutes of Lakai but he's beaten 31 defenders where Lakai has beaten 3.
9 linebreaks and 7 tries from Casey. Zero in both cases from Lakai.
333 post contact metres for Casey. 88 for Lakai.
Yeah, but you have to factor in that one player is in a dominant team and the other isn't. Casey has been involved in a very strong Otago team this year so has had a lot more opportunity with ball in hand. I'd imagine Lakai's numbers would be a lot higher if he was involved in a team that was dominating. Unfortunately, as a result of Wellington's recent success they lost a raft of players to higher honours so have had to heavily rely on club level players to fill a void this year and have been on the back foot for most of their games. Lakai's numbers might be low compared to Casey, but he was influential in all their wins this year (which weren't many).
Casey is playing like Lakai was when Wellington won their two titles (2022/2024), albeit going about their work in a slightly different manner. If Casey is outplaying Lakai that much in Super, I will happily eat my hat, but I highly doubt it.
Lakai didn't really play last year did he? He was with the AB's I thought?
Looking at Lakai's stats for 22 and 23 ( rugbypass ) they are still not as good as Casey's this year. This guy has massive potential.
Not too much I don't think, was largely on standby with the ABs, we had Kirifi for the whole season.
Agreed, Casey looks like a super talent. Highlanders have some of the best young talent in the country and it's great to see them keep it for once. With the likes of Pledger, Tangitau, JRK, Holland, Casey, Howden to name a few, the Landers have the makings of a side that's going to be very hard to beat for the next decade. Just need to get Jacomb over the line.
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@Mauss said in Highlanders 2026:
@jimmyb said in Highlanders 2026:
Great post. Where do you get your stats?
The raw data I got from RugbyPass, both the player pages as well as the match pages. The stat I was most interested in – turnovers lost – is not that easy to find, so I had to pick through each match page in order to retrieve them. The stats used here – carries-per-turnover and post-contact metres per 80 – are stats I compiled through the RugbyPass raw metrics.
Off RugbyPass, not sure how accurate these stats are so welcome more accurate data, Howden, Casey, Stoddard all have very low ruck success rates compared to Haig and Withy (half most have).
Are you basing this off the RugbyPass category, “ruck arrival effectiveness”? I find it a very confusing category, to be fair, as I don’t really have a clue what it precisely measures. I find Opta to be clearer in their use of breakdown stats. You can still look up the Highlanders numbers from the 2025 season, the success rate of players for both attacking and defensive rucks.
(if you type in ‘Highlanders’ in the search bar, you get the numbers for all the individual players in the team)
Club Rugby Stats Hub 2024-25 | Opta Analyst
Our Club Rugby Stats for the 2024-25 season includes individual player and team advanced stats broken down by category.
Both Howden and Stodart had a higher rate of effectiveness at clearing attacking rucks (90 and 85% success rates, respectively) than either Withy or Haig (both around 84%). I don’t know how Casey will go at the breakdown at SRP-level but so far he hasn’t looked poor in that area to me. I also suspect the Highlanders' struggles at the breakdown were closely related to their forwards' inability to dominate the collision area. Having a reliable yet dynamic carrier would help with this.
All that said, I think Haig can also be a good fit at blindside, even if he’s struggled a bit for form this year. I personally wouldn’t pick Howden at 8, for reasons mentioned above. Turning the ball over every 7 carries is not really sustainable for an 8 when you’re expected to be the primary ball carrier.
Ah amazing, thanks for that Opta page
