NPC 2025
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The Canterbury-Hawke's Bay SF will be played at the same time, in the same city, as the Black Caps-England T20i game.
Rugby v cricket and Sky v TVNZ.
I initially thought the Bay match clashed with the Kiwis match and was ready to go all grumpy old man, but thankfully they're a day apart.
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Bunnings Provincial Rugby
6,943 days. That's how long Otago Rugby fans have had to wait for their spot in a top-flight semi-final 𤯠Their last outing came in 2006 vs Waikato. After 19 years, Otago are back where it matters...
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Goes alright I reckon, David Kidwell will help him improve on his defence no doubt
Dual threat âĄď¸ Dylan Pledgerâs fingerprints are on every stat for Otago Rugby in 2025 đ Otago vs Bay of Plenty đ˛ LIVE on Sky Sport NZ - Friday 7.15 PM
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Goes alright I reckon, David Kidwell will help him improve on his defence no doubt
Dual threat âĄď¸ Dylan Pledgerâs fingerprints are on every stat for Otago Rugby in 2025 đ Otago vs Bay of Plenty đ˛ LIVE on Sky Sport NZ - Friday 7.15 PM
The only thing Kidwell has ever improved has been Tongan rugby league.
Yes, I am still carrying a grudge.
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This is nice it's great when a battler such as Cam can prove his weight in Blue & Gold
Most conversions for Otago Rugby in an NPC season: 48 Cameron Millar (2025) * 43 Tony Brown (1998) 30 Josh Ioane (2018) 28 Greg Cooper (1990) 26 Fletcher Smith (2017) Bunnings Provincial Rugby
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Iâve been browsing through some of this yearâs NPC statistics from RugbyPass and threw together some graphs to get a better overview.
Graph 1: Midfield crash ball options
Gibson Popoaliâi has been a dominant force for Counties Manukau this year and this dominance is properly reflected when comparing the numbers from the Patumahoe second five to his peers in the competition.
To crash or not to crash? Midfield crash ball is not a young manâs gamePopoaliâi leads the pack when it comes to defenders beaten per carry (0.45), nearly beating a defender every two carries. He also completes the top 3 for post-contact metres per carry for second fives, trailing only Thomas Umaga-Jensen and Dallas McLeod (3.84).
The graph also shows that crashing the ball up isnât necessarily a young manâs game, With Canterburyâs Dallas McLeod the youngest of the players reaching about 3.5 post-contact metres per carry at 26 years of age. Julian Savea, while no longer the supreme athlete from the early 2010s, shows that he can still perform a role at this level. For others, like Ngani Laumape, it might take a while to get back up to speed after a few seasons in Japan.
Another surprising name near the bottom of the list is that of Gideon Wrampling. While Wrampling plays with great physicality, at the moment heâs not yet able to make consistently big dents in the defensive line. But at 24, it might be that he is yet to enter his prime years as a crash ball-option.
Graph 2: the art of the number 8
In the Highlanders topic, Iâve already mentioned what I think is the most important quality of a number 8: they need to be able to keep hold of the ball while moving forward. Ball security (not turning the ball over) and the ability to make post-contact metres are, in other words, the positionâs key skills.
Stag dominance: Tupou-Taâeiloa has been the competitionâs most reliable number 8 by an absolute landslideIf ball security is an art, then Southlandâs Semisi Tupou-Taâeiloa is this yearâs Pablo Picasso. While others, like Ta$manâs Fletcher Anderson and Northlandâs Terrell Peita, can compete with Tupou-Taâeiloaâs post-contact metres (46.6 post-contact metres per 80 minutes), nobody comes close when it comes to ball security. The Southland Stag has only turned the ball over just three times from 117 carries across the season, a staggering rate of 39 carries per turnover. It means that when you give him the ball, youâre not going to lose it.
Contrast this to Canterburyâs makeshift number 8, Dom Gardiner, who loses the ball once every 5.7 carries, and you get a sense of the security and reliability you get from the Moana Pasifika number 8. Terrell Peita also deserves some credit for what has been a very solid campaign, with 51.9 post-contact metres per 80 minutes and a respectable 17 carries per turnover. Youâd expect a player like Peita to come into serious consideration for potential SRP-gigs at number 8.
Graph 3: Hardworking hookers
The hooker position has come to be associated in New Zealand with some of the most industrious players on the field, with a player like Codie Taylor embodying the grit and determination of the man in the middle. So how do current players stack up to a player like Taylor, who consistently racks up both big minutes as well as double figures in both tackles and carries?
A brotherly affair: George and Henry Bell are some of the most active players amongst their peers, with George being the primary carrier and Henry the primary tacklerGeorge Bell looks like the most complete option in the NPC at this stage, reaching double figures per 80 minutes for both carries (18.4) and tackles (14.4). Especially as a carrier, nobody comes particularly close to the younger Bell brother, Southlandâs Jack Taylor being a long way back in second with 13.6 carries per 80 minutes. When it comes to tackle numbers, the other Bell, Henry, leads the pack with 20.8 tackles per 80 minutes. Others, like Sanerivi, Poasa, Moulds, Kereru-Symes and Gordon, also work hard on defence.
The graph also makes clear that players like Vikena, Bason, and Maka need to get their hands on the ball more. All three can be destructive carriers but with just 4.8 (Vikena and Bason) and 5.6 (Maka) carries per 80, there is too little opportunity for them to show it. What it also shows is that tries scored doesnât necessarily equate to attack contributions, as despite Makaâs 9 tries he doesnât really show up in the carrying numbers.
Graph 4: dual-threat first fives
Playmakers are a hot topic in NZ rugby circles, especially those who can attack and break the line, as fans are becoming increasingly exasperated at Beauden Barrettâs shovel passing. But how can you trace whether a first five can both create and produce line breaks? With not a huge amount of data available, I tried to be a little creative. I combined passing numbers with try assists to see who can produce the final pass consistently. And then I combined carrying numbers with line breaks, to see who has an effective running game.While most graphs end up with the desired position in the right top corner, this one is the opposite. You want to be as close as possible to both axis lines, as it shows that you can break the line most efficiently.
No real surprises, or perhaps just the one: Jacomb and Millar have shown the greatest ability to both break the line as put others through, with North Harbour's Cam Howell an interesting name to pop upJosh Jacomb, unsurprisingly, proves to be the biggest dual-threat when it comes to breaking the line. With just 10.6 carries per line break and 36.2 passes per try assist, Jacomb has shown an efficient ability to pierce opposition defences, both by running himself and by using his passing game. Millar has also shown great improvement this season, being more willing to attack the line himself, which has proven to be a fruitful tactic. Perhaps a more unexpected name is Cam Howell, the North Harbour first five, who has also proved to be something of a dual-threat when attacking the line.
Other first fives have specific qualities: Garden-Bachop has been fantastic at putting others into space (9 try assists, just 28.7 passes per assist) but isnât a real running threat himself. McClutchie, on the other hand, has been a real threat ball-in-hand (8.75 carries per line break) but hasnât really been as effective in finishing the play.
And yes, I have noticed Aaron Cruden hanging out all by himself in the top right corner. Cruden is still is an excellent first five through his game management and kicking ability but he is no longer the line-breaking first five from his younger years. Again, this graph isnât meant to show âgoodâ and âbadâ first fives (if only there was such a graph); it reflects a particular way of playing the line, and Cruden no longer has the wheels to be very effective in that role. Sorry, Aaron, you'll always be my preferred 2016-'17 AB first five.
Graph 5: Two-way wingers
Todayâs wingers are a different breed from what they used to be. No longer the defensive black holes they once were, the winger is now a crucial figure in any defensive line, often required to fulfil a whole range of defensive tasks. Whether itâs shooting up, outside-in, drift or backtrack, the winger has to have both an understanding of defensive duties and willingness to make big calls. And this hasnât made any mention of their attacking duties nor kick-chase responsibilities.So who are the wingers in the NPC who have shown the most complete profile? In order to check this, Iâve tried to reconstruct their level of dominance on both sides of the ball: how often do they tackle with dominance (dominant tackle percentage) and how often do they carry with dominance (defenders beaten per carry)? When put together, this is what you end up with.
While there are no complete profiles, there are some clear defensive and attacking standouts from this yearâs NPCInterestingly, Canterbury and Otago have some of the most dominant defensive wingers in the competition (Fihaki, Punivai and Nareki) while the losing semi-finalists, Bay of Plenty and Hawkeâs Bay had some of the most potent attacking threats (Fineanganofo, Lasaqa, Lowe). So while individual ability is certainly a factor, being part of a system also strongly shapes how some of these numbers come into being, of course.
The two most intriguing profiles are probably those of Canterburyâs Chay Fihaki and BOPâs Fehi Fineanganofo. While Fihaki is a much-maligned figure, his defensive stats are pretty impressive, tackling at a dominance rate of 20% (one in every five tackles is dominant). Similarly, Fineanganofoâs 55% carrying dominance is exceptional, as it means that he beats a defender in less than every two carries.
So while neither are the finished product, they do appear to provide an edge, which is important for selection at the next level. It gives a coach a clearer picture of how and where to use certain players. Other hopefuls, like Taumoefolau, Springer, Tangitau and Tito-Harris would probably do well to find their own unique selling point, as a way up the rugby pyramid.
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@Mauss Thought-provoking as always, thank you mate.
A player like Tupou-Ta'eiloa, despite limitations in some areas, can be such a hugely effective part of a team with strengths like that if they're used well. A low-error rate with go-forward is gold. I always find myself mentally matching up the 'possession lost' vs 'possession won' to form a sort of a net position on a player's effect on possession for the team, so would be interested in seeing how many 'turnovers won' for a guy like that vs some of the other contenders.
George Bell is looking very promising this year, and that is a hell of a lot of involvements per game.
On the wingers, while I quite like Fineanganofo, I'm not sure about his top-end pace for the higher level. Guys like Lowe operate well in traffic and while he bounces around and makes valuable metres, I would think it is not many metres made per defender beaten, because he's never going to take an outside break and gas the defence - very effective for the bay because of how they use him, but not the attributes I see as key for a top winger. Fihaki I feel the same about, he has a lot of positive attributes, but I tihnk he should just move to midfield asap if he aspires to a higher level. -
the public have had their say and Josh Jacomb has come up Trumps! Dan I know you'll be pleased mate
The people have spoken đŁď¸ Listeners of Afternoons with Staffy on Sport Nation NZ have named their Bunnings NPC Team of the Season, with Josh Jacomb taking home MVP honours after a breakout campaign...
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@reprobate said in NPC 2025:
A player like Tupou-Ta'eiloa, despite limitations in some areas, can be such a hugely effective part of a team with strengths like that if they're used well. A low-error rate with go-forward is gold. I always find myself mentally matching up the 'possession lost' vs 'possession won' to form a sort of a net position on a player's effect on possession for the team, so would be interested in seeing how many 'turnovers won' for a guy like that vs some of the other contenders.
If youâre interested in comparing turnovers won, the RugbyPass NPC stats page actually has a pretty decent feature for that, where you can compare individual players, including how many turnovers theyâve won. For example, if you want to compare Tupou-Taâeiloa to someone like Flanders, youâd get this kind of overview:
(link: https://www.rugbypass.com/bunnings-npc/stats/)So Flanders clearly has an edge when it comes to winning possession back, despite turning the ball over more regularly.
I also find it quite interesting how, based on this kind of presentation, youâd think Flanders had a much better season. But the comparison isnât really fair because Flanders played two more games than Tupou-Taâeiloa (quarters and semi), which obviously inflates the formerâs numbers. Still interesting though, of course, and Flanders had a very good NPC campaign.
Agreed about the wingers. Tangitau has had a mixed season for Auckland but heâs the kind of guy who might make a real fist of it at the next level so good that theyâre giving him an opportunity with the AB XV. But Iâm quite high on guys like Fineanganofo and Taumoefolau as well: they might not have Tangitauâs pace but they have a range of ways they can impact a game, I feel.
