Does Super Rugby prepare players for Test Rugby?

[reprobate]

@Mauss I agree that McKenzie is exactly the sort of guy who can both run himself and put people into space which we need in the back 3, but I think he's also (and moreso) needed at 10.
Or are we stuck waiting for Mo'unga still?

In Jordan, Clark and Tangitau we have 3 guys who are all potentially devastating runners, but none are really noted distributors.

[Mauss]

@reprobate said in Does Super Rugby prepare players for Test Rugby?:

I agree that McKenzie is exactly the sort of guy who can both run himself and put people into space which we need in the back 3, but I think he's also (and moreso) needed at 10.
Or are we stuck waiting for Mo'unga still?

I think, with the new coaching ticket, it’s likely that we’ll see someone else at first five. It could be a fresh face (Love, Reihana, Jacomb) but I think it’s most likely that Mo’unga will be given the keys for the run-up to the World Cup.

I think a Mo’unga-McKenzie combination could work quite well: Mo’unga is a very classic first five who likes his hands on the ball a lot at first receiver (similar to someone like George Ford but with a better running game) while McKenzie is one of the world’s best attacking players at second receiver. Who plays 10 and who plays 15 there is also rather fluid in today’s game: while Jalibert is wearing the 10-jersey for France, he is mostly attacking the line at second receiver while Ramos is the one with the ball in his hands first. It’s all pretty pragmatic.

In Jordan, Clark and Tangitau we have 3 guys who are all potentially devastating runners, but none are really noted distributors.

Jordan-Clarke-Tangitau could be a lethal back 3 but then you have to adjust your game plan accordingly. Emphasizing transition attack with these players isn’t a great idea because, as you say, none of those players are renowned for their passing.

Tangitau showed this very neatly on one occasion against the Crusaders where the Landers had numbers on the right. After Tavatavanawai is able to get the ball away in contact, the only thing Tangitau needed to do was make sure to move the ball along the chain. Instead, he clogs up the space by taking a few steps forward, gets caught man and ball by Ennor and the ball is turned over at the ensuing ruck.

Numbers and space on the right. If the Landers score here, the game would’ve been over much sooner

Players like Tangitau and Clarke would be great in a Schmidt-style possession game where they’re allowed to roam behind the rucks, looking for gaps either in tight or out wide. They would also be great at using their pace for finishing strike moves from set piece, similar to Jordan’s score against Ireland in the World Cup quarter final.

So, I’d be fine with either, as long as selection matches strategy.

[canefan]

Selection matches strategy. Now there's a novel idea....

[jimmyb]

@Mauss I remember an article from Nick Bishop a few years ago explaining exactly that re. McKenzie and how much more effective the chiefs attack was with Ioane at 10 and McKenzie at 15.

Imo Dmac does not offer enough due to his physical size to attack the line at 10 in international rugby. If he’s running at the set defence of South Africa, England, France, the players know his only real option is to pass or kick, which puts massive pressure on the receiver.

We need a 10 that can at least hold parity in contact and has the sideways movement to beat defenders in a congested contact zone

[Mauss]

@jimmyb said in Does Super Rugby prepare players for Test Rugby?:

We need a 10 that can at least hold parity in contact and has the sideways movement to beat defenders in a congested contact zone

That's probably the strongest argument for putting a player like Love at first five. He made 4 line breaks from his five games at 10 last season, which is a very solid return. His injuries worry me, though. He needs time in the saddle more than anything else. I thought it was noticeable that he hadn't played a lot of first five during the '25 season; he was often quite late to be in the position he needed to be.

If he's able to get through a lot of minutes during Super Rugby, I do think players like him and Reihana are genuine options. But they would both need to be paired up with a playmaker, either at 12 or 15. Neither of them are game controlling 10s (yet). But with Roigard and someone like McKenzie in the backline, perhaps they don't need to be.

[jimmyb]

@Mauss said in Does Super Rugby prepare players for Test Rugby?:

@jimmyb said in Does Super Rugby prepare players for Test Rugby?:

We need a 10 that can at least hold parity in contact and has the sideways movement to beat defenders in a congested contact zone

That's probably the strongest argument for putting a player like Love at first five. He made 4 line breaks from his five games at 10 last season, which is a very solid return. His injuries worry me, though. He needs time in the saddle more than anything else. I thought it was noticeable that he hadn't played a lot of first five during the '25 season; he was often quite late to be in the position he needed to be.

If he's able to get through a lot of minutes during Super Rugby, I do think players like him and Reihana are genuine options. But they would both need to be paired up with a playmaker, either at 12 or 15. Neither of them are game controlling 10s (yet). But with Roigard and someone like McKenzie in the backline, perhaps they don't need to be.

Well exactly. With Roigard and a play making 15, all we need is a 10 that can kick, pass, and square the defence up.

But also what is desperately needed is a 12 that can break the line. J Barrett is a great player but does not offer the line break ability that is needed. That get out of jail ball to a 12 that can make metres when the pressure is on is needed

[nostrildamus]

@jimmyb said in Does Super Rugby prepare players for Test Rugby?:

But also what is desperately needed is a 12 that can break the line. J Barrett is a great player but does not offer the line break ability that is needed. That get out of jail ball to a 12 that can make metres when the pressure is on is needed

Quinn Tupaea?

[Bones]

@nostrildamus said in Does Super Rugby prepare players for Test Rugby?:

@jimmyb said in Does Super Rugby prepare players for Test Rugby?:

But also what is desperately needed is a 12 that can break the line. J Barrett is a great player but does not offer the line break ability that is needed. That get out of jail ball to a 12 that can make metres when the pressure is on is needed

Quinn Tupaea?

Or TT

[reprobate]

@mauss so if we are waiting for Mo'unga for the WC, would the coach want to chuck a newbie in for the SA tour, or go with McKenzie as a more conservative place-holder? I guess if one of them has a storming Super season maybe - but right now Love is injured, Reihana may well share game time with Kemara, and Jacomb is mostly going to be on the bench - so it might be a stretch. (I would say that Mo'unga + McKenzie was always the one dual playmaker option that looked like it might work to me though).

Pairing one of the young guys with a playmaking 12 I'd say yes great, but question who our international quality playmaking 12s actually are? (apart from the near-mythological Higgins). Is Jordie that guy, or are the long levers just a little too slow? Our Super starters seem like Tupaea, Tavatavanawai, Havili and Ahki... Which then makes it look a bit like the loose forward situation: just pick an unnamed big hard-hitting, hard-working ruck-hitting lineout option guy to pair with Savea and Sititi, oh wait...

@jimmyb The Hurricanes had Roigard at 9 and a solid basics 10 in Cameron with a playmaking Love at fullback, and were pretty well beaten by the Brumbies last year. Roigard is good, but he has tended to go into his shell a bit at times - I don't think he is consistent enough to take enough of that playmaking load on himself at international level (yet) to make an e.g. Reihana work. I also don't think our other AB halfbacks really play the game the same way (very unfortunate the Pledger injury) - which also means a change in plan at 60 minutes, and big problems if/when Roigard is injured. And if you want a bruiser at 12, that is likely to increase the playmaking load on 10 too, because a Ma'a Nonu doesn't come around every couple of years.

[Mauss]

@jimmyb said in Does Super Rugby prepare players for Test Rugby?:

But also what is desperately needed is a 12 that can break the line. J Barrett is a great player but does not offer the line break ability that is needed. That get out of jail ball to a 12 that can make metres when the pressure is on is needed

Just in an effort to try and get this back on topic: if you look at the current 6N lineups, the crash ball off 12 isn’t a massive priority for most teams. Dingwall (ENG, 91 kg), Marin (ITA, 88 kg), Brau-Boirie (FRA, 98 kg) and Hawkins (WAL, 98 kg) are anything but typical crash ball merchants, with most of those players having experience of playing 10 as well. Sione Tuipulotu (SCO, 104 kg) should probably be categorized as something between a playmaker and a carrying threat, while the one side who still picks big, carry-first 12s, Ireland (McCloskey/Aki), is currently struggling to get their attack going (17 points scored on average after 2 rounds).

Instead, what a lot of teams are doing is putting their most dominant gainline back at 13, like England (Freeman/Lawrence), France (Depoortère), Wales (Eddie James), and Italy (Menoncello). (You could argue that Huw Jones belongs in this list as well.) A player like Garry Ringrose – 1 line break after the first two rounds, 33% gainline – bucks this trend but he has been rather anonymous so far, compared to, for example, his performances at the 2023 World cup (1.6 line break per 80 min).

The reason for this shift by teams is pretty simple, I think: you get an extra playmaker at 12 who can facilitate moving the ball away from the point of contact quickly and accurately while you have your dominant carrier running into space instead of into crowded areas.

Quinn Tupaea’s increased effectiveness at 13 is a good example of this. While he carries more often and makes more metres at 12, he is a bigger linebreaking threat at 13 at Test level, while also able to beat more defenders.

Tupaea’s averages from 3 starts at 12 (FRA 3, SCO, ENG) and 2 starts at 13 (AU 2, IRE) for carries, metres made, defenders beaten and line breaks

Having a player like Tupaea, Fainga’anuku or even Tavatavanawai at 13 seems to offer some real advantages: all of these players have the ability to bust through tackles as well as offload in contact, allowing them to set free their outsides. Their chances of creating a line break, either for themselves or for others, are currently higher on the outside edges than in the spaces close to the ruck.

Turning back to Super Rugby Pacific, it’s clear that the SRP sides aren’t particularly eager to follow this trend. Apart from the Blues, who have stuck with AJ Lam (105 kg) at outside centre, most other teams have resisted putting a big body at 13, with the Crusaders preferring Ennor (94 kg) to Fainga’anuku (109 kg) and the Chiefs putting Rona (94 kg) at outside centre rather than putting Tupaea (102 kg) out one wider. With the lack of efficacy from Proctor during the 2025 Test season and the (attacking) success of Tupaea and Fainga’anuku there, it lays bare another area in which there’s not a great deal of alignment between Super Rugby and Test rugby.

As far as 12 is concerned, I think Jordie Barrett still has a head start to the jersey. He’s got a skillset which suits the role of the playmaking 12 well (13.3 passes per 80 min), while not being short of physicality himself (2.2 defenders beaten per 80 min).

Jordie Barrett’s averages from the 2025 Rugby Championship: carries, metres made, defenders beaten, line breaks, passes and kicks

In Super Rugby Pacific, most Kiwi teams retain their dominant gainline back in the 12-jersey (CHI, HIG, BLU), with only the Crusaders and Hurricanes employing a more traditional playmaking second five (equal to or more passes than carries).

Numbers for this week’s starting 12s (stats are from previous SRP season or Champions Cup, in the cases of Barrett and Ahki): carries, post-contact metres, passes and percentage of accurate passing

It would be interesting to see a bit more experimentation from SRP sides in terms of selection, although the Blues’ decision to go for a double gainline midfield is one of those experiments worth keeping a closer eye one. If they can shows signs of clicking, it might pave the way for a similar midfield for the ABs.

[mariner4life]

all your posts show how dated the AB attack has been. a non-distributing lump at 12, a centre playing on his shoulder with no room to distribute, generally a loose forward between the centre and the winger. A non-distributing 15, a 10 who sat in the pocket and passed.

[reprobate]

@mariner4life said in Does Super Rugby prepare players for Test Rugby?:

all your posts show how dated the AB attack has been. a non-distributing lump at 12, a centre playing on his shoulder with no room to distribute, generally a loose forward between the centre and the winger. A non-distributing 15, a 10 who sat in the pocket and passed.

Don't forget the props in the 9-10-12 axis bro, you're underselling it.

[Duluth]

@mariner4life said in Does Super Rugby prepare players for Test Rugby?:

all your posts show how dated the AB attack has been. a non-distributing lump at 12, a centre playing on his shoulder with no room to distribute, generally a loose forward between the centre and the winger. A non-distributing 15, a 10 who sat in the pocket and passed.

It's even weirder than that, the 15 was meant to be a distributor but they asked Jordan to do it. The pass out the back was usually to the 15 and he had to link with the wingers

It was the Foster template which was better suited to a 10 at 15. Also time had moved on and defences were very comfortable against it

[taniwharugby]

@mariner4life and for a period, had the fastest guy on the park at 13, but used him to crash the ball up...we really have helped our demise over the past half dozen or so years.

[reprobate]

@Duluth said in Does Super Rugby prepare players for Test Rugby?:

@mariner4life said in Does Super Rugby prepare players for Test Rugby?:

all your posts show how dated the AB attack has been. a non-distributing lump at 12, a centre playing on his shoulder with no room to distribute, generally a loose forward between the centre and the winger. A non-distributing 15, a 10 who sat in the pocket and passed.

It's even weirder than that, the 15 was meant to be a distributor but they asked Jordan to do it. The pass out the back was usually to the 15 and he had to link with the wingers

It was the Foster template which was better suited to a 10 at 15. Also time had moved on and defences were very comfortable against it

It's more a reverse-Foster I reckon: instead of having a 2nd 10 at 15, we had a 2nd 15 at 10... didn't go so well.

One of the nice things about the Blues success was them doing it with a (for NZ Super) different, tight, forward-focused game plan. Such a shame that team has been dismantled so quick. Maybe I'm just an old fluffybunny, but I miss the days when e.g. Waikato were all forward grunt and Otago would go to great lengths to keep the ball moving to avoid their forwards being dominated - having to deal with that sort of variety in opposition I think gives players (and coaches) a broader skillset, and e.g. a big Blues pack dominating for a few years would encourage teams to select big forwards to combat them, rather than half our teams having what should be big loosies playing at lock, and 3 small-medium loose forwards.

[canefan]

@reprobate said in Does Super Rugby prepare players for Test Rugby?:

@Duluth said in Does Super Rugby prepare players for Test Rugby?:

@mariner4life said in Does Super Rugby prepare players for Test Rugby?:

all your posts show how dated the AB attack has been. a non-distributing lump at 12, a centre playing on his shoulder with no room to distribute, generally a loose forward between the centre and the winger. A non-distributing 15, a 10 who sat in the pocket and passed.

It's even weirder than that, the 15 was meant to be a distributor but they asked Jordan to do it. The pass out the back was usually to the 15 and he had to link with the wingers

It was the Foster template which was better suited to a 10 at 15. Also time had moved on and defences were very comfortable against it

It's more a reverse-Foster I reckon: instead of having a 2nd 10 at 15, we had a 2nd 15 at 10... didn't go so well.

One of the nice things about the Blues success was them doing it with a (for NZ Super) different, tight, forward-focused game plan. Such a shame that team has been dismantled so quick. Maybe I'm just an old fluffybunny, but I miss the days when e.g. Waikato were all forward grunt and Otago would go to great lengths to keep the ball moving to avoid their forwards being dominated - having to deal with that sort of variety in opposition I think gives players (and coaches) a broader skillset, and e.g. a big Blues pack dominating for a few years would encourage teams to select big forwards to combat them, rather than half our teams having what should be big loosies playing at lock, and 3 small-medium loose forwards.

The Blues played the prototypical test game. Direct forward orientated play, a 10 who drove them around the park and gave the ball early so his outsides could cook, kicked his goals. What is so wrong with wanting all of that in our ABs? You aren't alone in that sentiment