Exodus 2017
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@akan004 said in Exodus 2017:
This year has been arguably the worst ever in terms of losing quality players still in their prime. Luatua, Faumaina, TKB, Lowe, Cruden and Fekitoa. FFS, that's some serious talent gone. Faumaina and Cruden in particular will be massive losses that won't be easy to replace.
Inevitable really. Lions tour over, players who have either been established ABs, but no longer/not first choice, and already have silverware, or else fringe or else never going to make it.
Faumuina and Cruden are really the only major losses, but NZ being NZ, we will find perfectly fine replacements.
@Billy-Tell said in Exodus 2017:
@akan004 said in Exodus 2017:
This year has been arguably the worst ever in terms of losing quality players still in their prime. Luatua, Faumaina, TKB, Lowe, Cruden and Fekitoa. FFS, that's some serious talent gone. Faumaina and Cruden in particular will be massive losses that won't be easy to replace.
Inevitable really. Lions tour over, players who have either been established ABs, but no longer/not first choice, and already have silverware, or else fringe or else never going to make it.
Faumuina and Cruden are really the only major losses, but NZ being NZ, we will find perfectly fine replacements.
For their experience, sure, but I think Luatua and TKB are huge losses too. Luatua's finally come into his own and has been huge this year. While TKB is the form Super halfback and gives us a ton of depth there. Once he goes, there's a huge drop down to the fourth pick (which I guess is Weber or shudder Pulu).
Not sure why people still bring Shields up in the ABs conversation. Feels like people have been talking him up as a future AB since he was in the U20s and it's not going to happen.
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@Billy-Tell said in Exodus 2017:
@Stargazer said in Exodus 2017:
Still waiting for the official announcement ....
... but according to the rumours, he'll only join Toulon in October. So he may play Mitre 10 Cup if he's not named in the AB squad for the Rugby Championship.
According to Midi Olympique, it will all become official on Tuesday (27 June). They say he has signed a two-year contract.
...when he's not named...
The player I am fully expecting to head overseas is Brad Shields, barring a miraculous call-up. Too good a player to earn a Super salary with no AB expectations.
Shields might be the Luke Braid of his mini-generation.
Thing is with Shields. There's not much youth coming through in the 6 & 8 positions who are better than him or who look particularly promising. Only really Akira Ioane.
Then there is Dixon, Squire, Shields and Fifita who are all about the same mid-20s age.
I could see him getting an opportunity, but it's not nailed on. Maybe 20% chance.
@Rapido I think that's why Hansen was annoyed at losing Luatua. More than any of them, he probably had the physical attributes to replace Kaino (who is talking of hanging around for another RWC, but I'm pretty doubtful - he's well past 34 - won't be surprised if we get an announcement from him in the next few months. Even Read is not far from 32. Vito is gone and Messam looks to be on recent evidence.
At the moment, Squire is at the head of the queue, but he's very injury prone - has been even at NPC level. Then apparently Ioane and Fifita, Dixon has dropped back in the running from last year. A wildcard is Luke Whitelock, who is playing much better rugby than when he made the ABs several years ago. Most of his web stats list him as 104kg, but I find that hard to believe. He could probably do with adding a couple more kgs to his frame for international rugby, but he wouldn't be the worst. I'd have him ahead of Shields and Jordan Taufua, who needs some platform shoes to make him a lineout option.
That Luke Jacobson looks a good prospect with the U20s. The little I saw of him was impressive.
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@Rapido I think that's why Hansen was annoyed at losing Luatua. More than any of them, he probably had the physical attributes to replace Kaino (who is talking of hanging around for another RWC, but I'm pretty doubtful - he's well past 34 - won't be surprised if we get an announcement from him in the next few months. Even Read is not far from 32. Vito is gone and Messam looks to be on recent evidence.
At the moment, Squire is at the head of the queue, but he's very injury prone - has been even at NPC level. Then apparently Ioane and Fifita, Dixon has dropped back in the running from last year. A wildcard is Luke Whitelock, who is playing much better rugby than when he made the ABs several years ago. Most of his web stats list him as 104kg, but I find that hard to believe. He could probably do with adding a couple more kgs to his frame for international rugby, but he wouldn't be the worst. I'd have him ahead of Shields and Jordan Taufua, who needs some platform shoes to make him a lineout option.
That Luke Jacobson looks a good prospect with the U20s. The little I saw of him was impressive.
@Chris-B. Forgot Luke Whitelock. I like the newly re-shaped cut of his jib.
Yeah. Taufua not a candidate, too short.
It's a very bare cupboard, in a position we normally churn them out.
Luatua must be either stark raving bonkers, or have the worst manager in the game, or just not up for it?
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Luatua, Faumauina and TKB hurt. Fekitoa will hurt too. These are international standard players ready to step in if we lose anyone, and still not overly weaken us (Charlie is more than that, he's a huge part of our gameday squad). They aren't guys at the end of their careers building a well deserved nest egg, they are players in their prime.
Surely this has got to bite at some point? We can't keep turning guys up to fill these holes, it's just not possible.
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@Chris-B. Forgot Luke Whitelock. I like the newly re-shaped cut of his jib.
Yeah. Taufua not a candidate, too short.
It's a very bare cupboard, in a position we normally churn them out.
Luatua must be either stark raving bonkers, or have the worst manager in the game, or just not up for it?
@Rapido Two others I forgot about are the invisible men Mitchell Dunshea and Hugh Renton. I've got very little idea about these two, but theoretically they should be part of a younger generation coming through - but they've been sighted less frequently than a Blue Duck.
Dunshea did look useful for the Barbarians.
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@Rapido I think that's why Hansen was annoyed at losing Luatua. More than any of them, he probably had the physical attributes to replace Kaino (who is talking of hanging around for another RWC, but I'm pretty doubtful - he's well past 34 - won't be surprised if we get an announcement from him in the next few months. Even Read is not far from 32. Vito is gone and Messam looks to be on recent evidence.
At the moment, Squire is at the head of the queue, but he's very injury prone - has been even at NPC level. Then apparently Ioane and Fifita, Dixon has dropped back in the running from last year. A wildcard is Luke Whitelock, who is playing much better rugby than when he made the ABs several years ago. Most of his web stats list him as 104kg, but I find that hard to believe. He could probably do with adding a couple more kgs to his frame for international rugby, but he wouldn't be the worst. I'd have him ahead of Shields and Jordan Taufua, who needs some platform shoes to make him a lineout option.
That Luke Jacobson looks a good prospect with the U20s. The little I saw of him was impressive.
@Chris-B. Agree with the next "generation". From this year's U20s, Luke Jacobson looks a prospect for the 6 jersey and Marino Mikaele-Tu'u is one to watch for no. 8. Still very young though; it will be interesting to see how they go in Mitre 10 Cup this year.
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Luatua, Faumauina and TKB hurt. Fekitoa will hurt too. These are international standard players ready to step in if we lose anyone, and still not overly weaken us (Charlie is more than that, he's a huge part of our gameday squad). They aren't guys at the end of their careers building a well deserved nest egg, they are players in their prime.
Surely this has got to bite at some point? We can't keep turning guys up to fill these holes, it's just not possible.
@mariner4life said in Exodus 2017:
Luatua, Faumauina and TKB hurt. Fekitoa will hurt too. These are international standard players ready to step in if we lose anyone, and still not overly weaken us (Charlie is more than that, he's a huge part of our gameday squad). They aren't guys at the end of their careers building a well deserved nest egg, they are players in their prime.
Surely this has got to bite at some point? We can't keep turning guys up to fill these holes, it's just not possible.
Yes, it will probably bite at some point. But it also has many advantages for the Al Blacks (if not fans of provincial or franchise rugby).
The constant refreshing of the team, while still keeping the absolute core, means the machine just keeps on. No one ever blocks a pipe like a past it Genia for example.
It has also played a part in reducing French rugby to its knees.
Were it has bitten in the past:
Hayman. It was amazing to replace him so quickly with a young keeper in O Franks, but we were razor thin theirfor a few years.Back up 10s to Carter when Evans and McAllister exodused.
Could see one of the 4 you mentioned creating a similar scenario over next few years. Interesting to see which.
I'm pleasantly surprised with Ofa T. So Charlie replacement is ok, but depth thin.
Discussed Luatua above. This is thin.
TKB means our current test quality depth is just 2 players. I'm thinking Nock or Enari will gallop past Pulu (but I like Webber).
Cruden narrows depth, nz fans are nervous about depth at 10. But there are at least some promising options here.
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@mariner4life said in Exodus 2017:
Luatua, Faumauina and TKB hurt. Fekitoa will hurt too. These are international standard players ready to step in if we lose anyone, and still not overly weaken us (Charlie is more than that, he's a huge part of our gameday squad). They aren't guys at the end of their careers building a well deserved nest egg, they are players in their prime.
Surely this has got to bite at some point? We can't keep turning guys up to fill these holes, it's just not possible.
Yes, it will probably bite at some point. But it also has many advantages for the Al Blacks (if not fans of provincial or franchise rugby).
The constant refreshing of the team, while still keeping the absolute core, means the machine just keeps on. No one ever blocks a pipe like a past it Genia for example.
It has also played a part in reducing French rugby to its knees.
Were it has bitten in the past:
Hayman. It was amazing to replace him so quickly with a young keeper in O Franks, but we were razor thin theirfor a few years.Back up 10s to Carter when Evans and McAllister exodused.
Could see one of the 4 you mentioned creating a similar scenario over next few years. Interesting to see which.
I'm pleasantly surprised with Ofa T. So Charlie replacement is ok, but depth thin.
Discussed Luatua above. This is thin.
TKB means our current test quality depth is just 2 players. I'm thinking Nock or Enari will gallop past Pulu (but I like Webber).
Cruden narrows depth, nz fans are nervous about depth at 10. But there are at least some promising options here.
@Rapido said in Exodus 2017:
Yes, it will probably bite at some point. But it also has many advantages for the Al Blacks (if not fans of provincial or franchise rugby).
The constant refreshing of the team, while still keeping the absolute core, means the machine just keeps on. No one ever blocks a pipe like a past it Genia for example.
It has also played a part in reducing French rugby to its knees.That's why I don't see it continuing.
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@akan004 said in Exodus 2017:
This year has been arguably the worst ever in terms of losing quality players still in their prime. Luatua, Faumaina, TKB, Lowe, Cruden and Fekitoa. FFS, that's some serious talent gone. Faumaina and Cruden in particular will be massive losses that won't be easy to replace.
2015 was a worse crop.
Piatau, Saili, Halai, Tamiefuna, TNW, Slade & Taylor, Cater, Smith, Nonu, Franks, Gear, Thrush.
Cruden has already been replaced.
Faumuina is a loss, but so were Sommerville and Afoa before him.
@rotated said in Exodus 2017:
@akan004 said in Exodus 2017:
Cruden has already been replaced.
If that were true he wouldn't be playing in the Lions series. We've got a good player next in line but he's still our current 3rd choice.
@Chris-B. said in Exodus 2017:
@Rapido Two others I forgot about are the invisible men Mitchell Dunshea and Hugh Renton.
You'd think that all Renton would need to do to make the ABs would be to get injured before the naming of the squad. It's worked well for him in Super rugby.
Outside of Cruden, Faumauina is a big loss.
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I don't think we need to worry about our no. 10 stocks. Behind BB (26), Cruden (28) and Sops (26), we have potential in:
Dmac (22) and Mo'unga (23)
Next, you have Black (22) and Hunt (22).
U20s: Perofeta (20) and Falcon (20)
At NZ Schools level: McClutchie (17, Hastings BHS) & probably more talentEdited to add their age.
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I don't think we need to worry about our no. 10 stocks. Behind BB (26), Cruden (28) and Sops (26), we have potential in:
Dmac (22) and Mo'unga (23)
Next, you have Black (22) and Hunt (22).
U20s: Perofeta (20) and Falcon (20)
At NZ Schools level: McClutchie (17, Hastings BHS) & probably more talentEdited to add their age.
@Stargazer said in Exodus 2017:
At NZ Schools level: McClutchie (17, Hastings BHS) & probably more talent
Yep McClutchie was very impressive when he played for NZ Barbarians Schools last year. Another one is Harry Plummer (turned 19 last week, out of St Peters College Auckland) who was the NZ Schools 10 last year. He's the top points scorer in his first season of Auckland club rugby this year in a middle of the road Grammar TEC side.
Also - more on the topic of the thread - Auckland outside back Lolagi Visinia has headed offshore to take up a contract with FC Grenoble in France
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I don't think we need to worry about our no. 10 stocks. Behind BB (26), Cruden (28) and Sops (26), we have potential in:
Dmac (22) and Mo'unga (23)
Next, you have Black (22) and Hunt (22).
U20s: Perofeta (20) and Falcon (20)
At NZ Schools level: McClutchie (17, Hastings BHS) & probably more talentEdited to add their age.
@Stargazer said in Exodus 2017:
I don't think we need to worry about our no. 10 stocks. Behind BB, Cruden and Sops, we have potential in:
Dmac (22) and Mo'unga (23)
Next, you have Black (22) and Hunt (22).
U20s: Perofeta (20) and Falcon (20)
At NZ Schools level: McClutchie (17, Hastings BHS) & probably more talentEdited to add their age.
worry? No. By having a player the quality of Sopoaga not even make our test 23 we are in a better spot than basically everyone.
But counting the rest of that list as some kind of measure of depth? A guy who hasn't looked good at 10, and miserably failed his last audition. A guy who has had a breakout season in Super rugby behind a great pack, but battled when the pack got under pressure. Then guys from the 20s, and we've over-rated guys based on that tournament more than once. None of those guys would make the Wallabies 23 as 10s FFS.
Next year, we are an injury from one of them being in the 23.
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I still recall the horror that took hold of NZ in 2011 when DC, our only quality 10 did his groin in...we wuz fuked!
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I still recall the horror that took hold of NZ in 2011 when DC, our only quality 10 did his groin in...we wuz fuked!
@taniwharugby said in Exodus 2017:
I still recall the horror that took hold of NZ in 2011 when DC, our only quality 10 did his groin in...we wuz fuked!
you know, when you think about it, the fact we won a World Cup despite going through four 10s in four games, and playing the final with not only two guys who weren't in the squad at the start, but one guy who wasn't in the squad at Qtr final time, is astounding. Everyone else really picked up the slack there
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The replenishment of the props will be interesting, mainly because the next tier have little or no international experience - yet.
At TH, Charlie is leaving and Franks won't be going on forever. Ofa T is obviously considered the next in line and he will get more opportunity at TH for the Blues from next season to prove he's up to it. After that there is Laulala and JTA.
At LH, Crockett is 34 so will need to be replaced before 2019. The next tier is Hames, Manu and Goodes.
There should be a place available on the EOYT for one of the above.
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@taniwharugby said in Exodus 2017:
I still recall the horror that took hold of NZ in 2011 when DC, our only quality 10 did his groin in...we wuz fuked!
you know, when you think about it, the fact we won a World Cup despite going through four 10s in four games, and playing the final with not only two guys who weren't in the squad at the start, but one guy who wasn't in the squad at Qtr final time, is astounding. Everyone else really picked up the slack there
@mariner4life well Piri even played at 10 for a decent part of a game too didn't he, meaning we played 5 different people at 10.
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The replenishment of the props will be interesting, mainly because the next tier have little or no international experience - yet.
At TH, Charlie is leaving and Franks won't be going on forever. Ofa T is obviously considered the next in line and he will get more opportunity at TH for the Blues from next season to prove he's up to it. After that there is Laulala and JTA.
At LH, Crockett is 34 so will need to be replaced before 2019. The next tier is Hames, Manu and Goodes.
There should be a place available on the EOYT for one of the above.
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@Tim said in Exodus 2017:
@Bovidae How do you rate Atu Moli's prospects?
I was going to suggest Moli might be a candidate as an apprentice on the EOYT tour. Moli has only just turned 22 so is still very young for a prop. He is playing mostly off the bench at TH for the Chiefs, is a big unit and mobile. He could be someone they look at to fill the role that Charlie does.
Laulala is not really a ball-carrier, more Franks-like. Let's see how JTA goes tonight.
