Exodus 2017
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@mariner4life well Piri even played at 10 for a decent part of a game too didn't he, meaning we played 5 different people at 10.
@taniwharugby said in Exodus 2017:
@mariner4life well Piri even played at 10 for a decent part of a game too didn't he, meaning we played 5 different people at 10.
It's also likely that if Cowan wasn't in such cabbage form that they might have just gone with Piri at 10.
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@Rapido I think that's why Hansen was annoyed at losing Luatua. More than any of them, he probably had the physical attributes to replace Kaino (who is talking of hanging around for another RWC, but I'm pretty doubtful - he's well past 34 - won't be surprised if we get an announcement from him in the next few months. Even Read is not far from 32. Vito is gone and Messam looks to be on recent evidence.
At the moment, Squire is at the head of the queue, but he's very injury prone - has been even at NPC level. Then apparently Ioane and Fifita, Dixon has dropped back in the running from last year. A wildcard is Luke Whitelock, who is playing much better rugby than when he made the ABs several years ago. Most of his web stats list him as 104kg, but I find that hard to believe. He could probably do with adding a couple more kgs to his frame for international rugby, but he wouldn't be the worst. I'd have him ahead of Shields and Jordan Taufua, who needs some platform shoes to make him a lineout option.
That Luke Jacobson looks a good prospect with the U20s. The little I saw of him was impressive.
@Chris-B. said in Exodus 2017:
@Rapido I think that's why Hansen was annoyed at losing Luatua. More than any of them, he probably had the physical attributes to replace Kaino (who is talking of hanging around for another RWC, but I'm pretty doubtful - he's well past 34 - won't be surprised if we get an announcement from him in the next few months. Even Read is not far from 32. Vito is gone and Messam looks to be on recent evidence.
At the moment, Squire is at the head of the queue, but he's very injury prone - has been even at NPC level. Then apparently Ioane and Fifita, Dixon has dropped back in the running from last year. A wildcard is Luke Whitelock, who is playing much better rugby than when he made the ABs several years ago. Most of his web stats list him as 104kg, but I find that hard to believe. He could probably do with adding a couple more kgs to his frame for international rugby, but he wouldn't be the worst. I'd have him ahead of Shields and Jordan Taufua, who needs some platform shoes to make him a lineout option.
That Luke Jacobson looks a good prospect with the U20s. The little I saw of him was impressive.
I think Akira is the obvious replacement for Kaino. He's really finding his feet at this level now, and was huge for the Maori playing in a pack that was well beaten.
Cane is only 25 so will be around for 5+ years easy.
Read is the biggest problem, he's very difficult to replace as he's such an integral part of the team. Ardie has been great and is a genuine option at 8, but we lose a lot in the lineout.
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Luatua, Faumauina and TKB hurt. Fekitoa will hurt too. These are international standard players ready to step in if we lose anyone, and still not overly weaken us (Charlie is more than that, he's a huge part of our gameday squad). They aren't guys at the end of their careers building a well deserved nest egg, they are players in their prime.
Surely this has got to bite at some point? We can't keep turning guys up to fill these holes, it's just not possible.
@mariner4life said in Exodus 2017:
Luatua, Faumauina and TKB hurt. Fekitoa will hurt too. These are international standard players ready to step in if we lose anyone, and still not overly weaken us (Charlie is more than that, he's a huge part of our gameday squad). They aren't guys at the end of their careers building a well deserved nest egg, they are players in their prime.
Surely this has got to bite at some point? We can't keep turning guys up to fill these holes, it's just not possible.
Though we've lost a lot of players overseas one thing that has been very constant since Henry took over is the coaching personal. Which is why I am (gulp) comfortable with the idea of Foster taking the reigns from Hansen when the time comes - IMO we need that continuity to help offset/manage the inevitable player loss.
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NQ - I reckon Ardie's lacking a bit of height and weight to be a genuine option as an international No. 8. No matter how much energy he brings it's hard to see him as a bullocking, hard driving 8 that I like to see. Even as an openside flanker I reckon Hansen would like to see him a bit bigger a la Cane and McCaw.
@Stargazer - I'd have Mitchell Drummond on your halfback's list somewhere around Weber and Pulu. He's much improved from last year, not brilliant but playing very solidly in pretty much all aspects. It would be interesting to see how he went behind a weaker pack.
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@mariner4life said in Exodus 2017:
Luatua, Faumauina and TKB hurt. Fekitoa will hurt too. These are international standard players ready to step in if we lose anyone, and still not overly weaken us (Charlie is more than that, he's a huge part of our gameday squad). They aren't guys at the end of their careers building a well deserved nest egg, they are players in their prime.
Surely this has got to bite at some point? We can't keep turning guys up to fill these holes, it's just not possible.
Though we've lost a lot of players overseas one thing that has been very constant since Henry took over is the coaching personal. Which is why I am (gulp) comfortable with the idea of Foster taking the reigns from Hansen when the time comes - IMO we need that continuity to help offset/manage the inevitable player loss.
@No-Quarter see how long our love of this succession planning and continuity lasts if we start losing a bit.
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NQ - I reckon Ardie's lacking a bit of height and weight to be a genuine option as an international No. 8. No matter how much energy he brings it's hard to see him as a bullocking, hard driving 8 that I like to see. Even as an openside flanker I reckon Hansen would like to see him a bit bigger a la Cane and McCaw.
@Stargazer - I'd have Mitchell Drummond on your halfback's list somewhere around Weber and Pulu. He's much improved from last year, not brilliant but playing very solidly in pretty much all aspects. It would be interesting to see how he went behind a weaker pack.
@Chris-B. said in Exodus 2017:
NQ - I reckon Ardie's lacking a bit of height and weight to be a genuine option as an international No. 8. No matter how much energy he brings it's hard to see him as a bullocking, hard driving 8 that I like to see. Even as an openside flanker I reckon Hansen would like to see him a bit bigger a la Cane and McCaw.
Lacking a bit in height probably, but in a similar mold to Rodders who did a great job for us over a number of years. He made some very strong runs when he came on in the weekend, his leg drive is out of this world, so I'm not sold that he doesn't have the physicality required with ball in hand. The wide ranging game suits him a lot better then staying tight and smacking blokes backwards like Cane and Kaino.
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@mariner4life if Foster takes over and we lose a couple I'll probably lead the angry mob calling for his head... but right now I can see the sense in it...
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@mariner4life if Foster takes over and we lose a couple I'll probably lead the angry mob calling for his head... but right now I can see the sense in it...
@No-Quarter said in Exodus 2017:
@mariner4life if Foster takes over and we lose a couple I'll probably lead the angry mob calling for his head... but right now I can see the sense in it...
good luck getting to the front of that mob, there are a whole bunch of Chiefs fans on here who have never got rid our torches and pitchforks (they're just in storage)
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@Chris-B. said in Exodus 2017:
NQ - I reckon Ardie's lacking a bit of height and weight to be a genuine option as an international No. 8. No matter how much energy he brings it's hard to see him as a bullocking, hard driving 8 that I like to see. Even as an openside flanker I reckon Hansen would like to see him a bit bigger a la Cane and McCaw.
Lacking a bit in height probably, but in a similar mold to Rodders who did a great job for us over a number of years. He made some very strong runs when he came on in the weekend, his leg drive is out of this world, so I'm not sold that he doesn't have the physicality required with ball in hand. The wide ranging game suits him a lot better then staying tight and smacking blokes backwards like Cane and Kaino.
@No-Quarter said in Exodus 2017:
@Chris-B. said in Exodus 2017:
NQ - I reckon Ardie's lacking a bit of height and weight to be a genuine option as an international No. 8. No matter how much energy he brings it's hard to see him as a bullocking, hard driving 8 that I like to see. Even as an openside flanker I reckon Hansen would like to see him a bit bigger a la Cane and McCaw.
Lacking a bit in height probably, but in a similar mold to Rodders who did a great job for us over a number of years. He made some very strong runs when he came on in the weekend, his leg drive is out of this world, so I'm not sold that he doesn't have the physicality required with ball in hand. The wide ranging game suits him a lot better then staying tight and smacking blokes backwards like Cane and Kaino.
Yeah, lets say looking in the future that it's Cane at 7 and a slightly tighter Akira at 6 then you could definitely have a wider ranging 8.
Maybe Squire will be the guy for a few years, ticks the height and then robustness, age might count against him, but players last a bit longer these days.
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@Rapido I'm sure he'd get a call up if he removed the toasters from his hands.
@antipodean said in Exodus 2017:
@Rapido I'm sure he'd get a call up if he removed the toasters from his hands.
Is this a real thing now though? Are there stats to back this up, especially for this year? I have not seen him drop a ball in a while
He does brig a lot of leadership. He is not a Reid, but he is not a bad player -
@antipodean said in Exodus 2017:
@Rapido I'm sure he'd get a call up if he removed the toasters from his hands.
Is this a real thing now though? Are there stats to back this up, especially for this year? I have not seen him drop a ball in a while
He does brig a lot of leadership. He is not a Reid, but he is not a bad player@Darren-Nicholson that's only because the 'canes have had a month off...
He's got "early years Rodney So'oialo" hands
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@No-Quarter said in Exodus 2017:
@Chris-B. said in Exodus 2017:
NQ - I reckon Ardie's lacking a bit of height and weight to be a genuine option as an international No. 8. No matter how much energy he brings it's hard to see him as a bullocking, hard driving 8 that I like to see. Even as an openside flanker I reckon Hansen would like to see him a bit bigger a la Cane and McCaw.
Lacking a bit in height probably, but in a similar mold to Rodders who did a great job for us over a number of years. He made some very strong runs when he came on in the weekend, his leg drive is out of this world, so I'm not sold that he doesn't have the physicality required with ball in hand. The wide ranging game suits him a lot better then staying tight and smacking blokes backwards like Cane and Kaino.
Yeah, lets say looking in the future that it's Cane at 7 and a slightly tighter Akira at 6 then you could definitely have a wider ranging 8.
Maybe Squire will be the guy for a few years, ticks the height and then robustness, age might count against him, but players last a bit longer these days.
@Nepia said in Exodus 2017:
@No-Quarter said in Exodus 2017:
@Chris-B. said in Exodus 2017:
NQ - I reckon Ardie's lacking a bit of height and weight to be a genuine option as an international No. 8. No matter how much energy he brings it's hard to see him as a bullocking, hard driving 8 that I like to see. Even as an openside flanker I reckon Hansen would like to see him a bit bigger a la Cane and McCaw.
Lacking a bit in height probably, but in a similar mold to Rodders who did a great job for us over a number of years. He made some very strong runs when he came on in the weekend, his leg drive is out of this world, so I'm not sold that he doesn't have the physicality required with ball in hand. The wide ranging game suits him a lot better then staying tight and smacking blokes backwards like Cane and Kaino.
Yeah, lets say looking in the future that it's Cane at 7 and a slightly tighter Akira at 6 then you could definitely have a wider ranging 8.
Maybe Squire will be the guy for a few years, ticks the height and then robustness, age might count against him, but players last a bit longer these days.
On the other hand - assuming that Kaino really does retire this year - we can hopefully have at least Squire/Ioane, Cane/Ardie, Read combos through to 2019, by which time the landscape will have changed quite a lot.
You'd hope that, imminently, we're only likely to lose Kaino and Crockett due to age - aside from those already with seats booked on the plane - with Kieran Read, Ben Smith (get well!) and SBW as the next tranche - maybe after the next RWC.
It all bodes pretty well and - despite that he annoys me at times - you have to say Steve Tew has done a pretty sterling job in running NZ rugby. Especially when you see the way the Aussies and Jaapies are struggling.
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@Stargazer said in Exodus 2017:
I don't think we need to worry about our no. 10 stocks. Behind BB, Cruden and Sops, we have potential in:
Dmac (22) and Mo'unga (23)
Next, you have Black (22) and Hunt (22).
U20s: Perofeta (20) and Falcon (20)
At NZ Schools level: McClutchie (17, Hastings BHS) & probably more talentEdited to add their age.
worry? No. By having a player the quality of Sopoaga not even make our test 23 we are in a better spot than basically everyone.
But counting the rest of that list as some kind of measure of depth? A guy who hasn't looked good at 10, and miserably failed his last audition. A guy who has had a breakout season in Super rugby behind a great pack, but battled when the pack got under pressure. Then guys from the 20s, and we've over-rated guys based on that tournament more than once. None of those guys would make the Wallabies 23 as 10s FFS.
Next year, we are an injury from one of them being in the 23.
@mariner4life said in Exodus 2017:
@Stargazer said in Exodus 2017:
I don't think we need to worry about our no. 10 stocks. Behind BB, Cruden and Sops, we have potential in:
Dmac (22) and Mo'unga (23)
Next, you have Black (22) and Hunt (22).
U20s: Perofeta (20) and Falcon (20)
At NZ Schools level: McClutchie (17, Hastings BHS) & probably more talentEdited to add their age.
worry? No. By having a player the quality of Sopoaga not even make our test 23 we are in a better spot than basically everyone.
But counting the rest of that list as some kind of measure of depth? A guy who hasn't looked good at 10, and miserably failed his last audition. A guy who has had a breakout season in Super rugby behind a great pack, but battled when the pack got under pressure. Then guys from the 20s, and we've over-rated guys based on that tournament more than once. None of those guys would make the Wallabies 23 as 10s FFS.
Next year, we are an injury from one of them being in the 23.
Yes, this is depth; maybe not for now, but for years to come. I prefer looking ahead; short-term thinking hasn't brought the ABs to the top where they are now. This list is our top "production line". Only Dmac and Mo'unga are players they'll look at in the first two years. I don't think we can dismiss those two as prospects for the near future based on one game against the Lions, esp not Mo'unga who has never played or even trained at test level, unlike Dmac. Both are excellent, young SR players who may develop into good or even great Abs, although I'd prefer Dmac at fullback. Until they are, I expect that players like TJP and, possibly, Dagg and Jordie will cover 10 in emergencies. I have faith in our coaches and they have had plenty of time to think about solutions for those emergencies; I'm sure they have thought about it thoroughly and have a plan.
@KiwiMurph I thought about adding Plummer, but didn't because I don't know what the reason was why he didn't make the U20s, not even the wider training camps late last year (while other 18 year-olds did). He wasn't injured. He may make the U20s next year though.
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@Stargazer said in Exodus 2017:
At NZ Schools level: McClutchie (17, Hastings BHS) & probably more talent
Yep McClutchie was very impressive when he played for NZ Barbarians Schools last year. Another one is Harry Plummer (turned 19 last week, out of St Peters College Auckland) who was the NZ Schools 10 last year. He's the top points scorer in his first season of Auckland club rugby this year in a middle of the road Grammar TEC side.
Also - more on the topic of the thread - Auckland outside back Lolagi Visinia has headed offshore to take up a contract with FC Grenoble in France
@KiwiMurph said in Exodus 2017:
@Stargazer said in Exodus 2017:
At NZ Schools level: McClutchie (17, Hastings BHS) & probably more talent
Yep McClutchie was very impressive when he played for NZ Barbarians Schools last year. Another one is Harry Plummer (turned 19 last week, out of St Peters College Auckland) who was the NZ Schools 10 last year. He's the top points scorer in his first season of Auckland club rugby this year in a middle of the road Grammar TEC side.
Also - more on the topic of the thread - Auckland outside back Lolagi Visinia has headed offshore to take up a contract with FC Grenoble in France
So the pigeon arrived?
He already signed last November. -
@KiwiMurph said in Exodus 2017:
@Stargazer said in Exodus 2017:
At NZ Schools level: McClutchie (17, Hastings BHS) & probably more talent
Yep McClutchie was very impressive when he played for NZ Barbarians Schools last year. Another one is Harry Plummer (turned 19 last week, out of St Peters College Auckland) who was the NZ Schools 10 last year. He's the top points scorer in his first season of Auckland club rugby this year in a middle of the road Grammar TEC side.
Also - more on the topic of the thread - Auckland outside back Lolagi Visinia has headed offshore to take up a contract with FC Grenoble in France
So the pigeon arrived?
He already signed last November.@Stargazer IIRC, at the time, people said that he turned down a Crusaders contract.
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@mariner4life said in Exodus 2017:
@Stargazer said in Exodus 2017:
I don't think we need to worry about our no. 10 stocks. Behind BB, Cruden and Sops, we have potential in:
Dmac (22) and Mo'unga (23)
Next, you have Black (22) and Hunt (22).
U20s: Perofeta (20) and Falcon (20)
At NZ Schools level: McClutchie (17, Hastings BHS) & probably more talentEdited to add their age.
worry? No. By having a player the quality of Sopoaga not even make our test 23 we are in a better spot than basically everyone.
But counting the rest of that list as some kind of measure of depth? A guy who hasn't looked good at 10, and miserably failed his last audition. A guy who has had a breakout season in Super rugby behind a great pack, but battled when the pack got under pressure. Then guys from the 20s, and we've over-rated guys based on that tournament more than once. None of those guys would make the Wallabies 23 as 10s FFS.
Next year, we are an injury from one of them being in the 23.
Yes, this is depth; maybe not for now, but for years to come. I prefer looking ahead; short-term thinking hasn't brought the ABs to the top where they are now. This list is our top "production line". Only Dmac and Mo'unga are players they'll look at in the first two years. I don't think we can dismiss those two as prospects for the near future based on one game against the Lions, esp not Mo'unga who has never played or even trained at test level, unlike Dmac. Both are excellent, young SR players who may develop into good or even great Abs, although I'd prefer Dmac at fullback. Until they are, I expect that players like TJP and, possibly, Dagg and Jordie will cover 10 in emergencies. I have faith in our coaches and they have had plenty of time to think about solutions for those emergencies; I'm sure they have thought about it thoroughly and have a plan.
@KiwiMurph I thought about adding Plummer, but didn't because I don't know what the reason was why he didn't make the U20s, not even the wider training camps late last year (while other 18 year-olds did). He wasn't injured. He may make the U20s next year though.
@Stargazer said in Exodus 2017:
Yes, this is depth; maybe not for now, but for years to come. I prefer looking ahead; short-term thinking hasn't brought the ABs to the top where they are now
alternatively, just about all of our top level All Blacks are in the team within 2 years of their Super rugby debut. Some, like Dane Coles, take a while to build, but most fall in to their lap. What they seem to do is pick the right ones, and get them in early.
Looking too far ahead is pointless. Any new players coming in to the team in 2 years probably aren't even Super rugby players at the moment.
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@mariner4life said in Exodus 2017:
@Stargazer said in Exodus 2017:
I don't think we need to worry about our no. 10 stocks. Behind BB, Cruden and Sops, we have potential in:
Dmac (22) and Mo'unga (23)
Next, you have Black (22) and Hunt (22).
U20s: Perofeta (20) and Falcon (20)
At NZ Schools level: McClutchie (17, Hastings BHS) & probably more talentEdited to add their age.
worry? No. By having a player the quality of Sopoaga not even make our test 23 we are in a better spot than basically everyone.
But counting the rest of that list as some kind of measure of depth? A guy who hasn't looked good at 10, and miserably failed his last audition. A guy who has had a breakout season in Super rugby behind a great pack, but battled when the pack got under pressure. Then guys from the 20s, and we've over-rated guys based on that tournament more than once. None of those guys would make the Wallabies 23 as 10s FFS.
Next year, we are an injury from one of them being in the 23.
Yes, this is depth; maybe not for now, but for years to come. I prefer looking ahead; short-term thinking hasn't brought the ABs to the top where they are now. This list is our top "production line". Only Dmac and Mo'unga are players they'll look at in the first two years. I don't think we can dismiss those two as prospects for the near future based on one game against the Lions, esp not Mo'unga who has never played or even trained at test level, unlike Dmac. Both are excellent, young SR players who may develop into good or even great Abs, although I'd prefer Dmac at fullback. Until they are, I expect that players like TJP and, possibly, Dagg and Jordie will cover 10 in emergencies. I have faith in our coaches and they have had plenty of time to think about solutions for those emergencies; I'm sure they have thought about it thoroughly and have a plan.
@KiwiMurph I thought about adding Plummer, but didn't because I don't know what the reason was why he didn't make the U20s, not even the wider training camps late last year (while other 18 year-olds did). He wasn't injured. He may make the U20s next year though.
@Stargazer said in Exodus 2017:
Only Dmac and Mo'unga are players they'll look at in the first two years. I don't think we can dismiss those two as prospects for the near future based on one game against the Lions, esp not Mo'unga who has never played or even trained at test level, unlike Dmac. Both are excellent, young SR players who may develop into good or even great Abs, although I'd prefer Dmac at fullback. Until they are, I expect that players like TJP and, possibly, Dagg and Jordie will cover 10 in emergencies.
Hell no, to that last sentence!
You can't just press people who don't play there into service at first five in a test match.
I think the first five plan for the next couple of years very clearly should be....
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With a bit of luck we'll have Beauden available to start most tests including all the hardest ones.
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We'll have Lima available to step into the current Cruden role of being on the bench for most tests and starting a few of the lesser ones to develop him in case Beaudy gets injured for a significant period.
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We'll have Richie Mo'unga to step into the apprentice role that Lima's been playing for the past couple of years with a few bench games and maybe the odd start.
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We'll have DMac playing a season of NPC and then helming the Chiefs for a Super season to see how he goes, relative to Otere Black and Ihaia West at the Blues. If any of these guys turn out to be outstanding they can supplant Richie.
Barring both our first fives being broken in a single test, we shouldn't see anyone else in that role.
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