Blues 2018
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@duluth said in Post your Super Rugby predictions:
The Blues:
If they don't make the playoffs Umaga should be sacked.The table will look bad for us in the first couple of months. Only one home game and two byes in the first 6 weeks.
However 6 of the last 7 matches are at home. There is potential for a late charge.I'll make a relatively positive prediction - beaten semi finalists
It's virtually impossible for all NZ teams to make it through. One NZ team at minimum (likely two) will miss out on the finals simply because of the derby games.
To sack a coach based on that is harsh. For a coach to pull a team up in our 'pool of death' is a massive achievement (unless another turns to shit). The key is getting a winning feeling and momentum and the draw does the Blues no favours at all in this regard.
I can see them playing really good rugby, winning most of their overseas games and having close losses to NZ teams. The fans will bring out the pitchforks, demand change and go back to the start again.
@crucial said in Blues 2018:
It's virtually impossible for all NZ teams to make it through.
Well that first sentence implies you think they'll come last. You'll note my prediction was relatively positive. I don't think they'll finish 5th for a 3rd time under Umaga. If the damage is limited in the first 6 weeks that draw suddenly looks good.
5th, 5th & 5th should be sackable. Do I think he will get sacked if there is no improvement? Unfortunately the answer is no. It seems Umaga is a special needs coach and should not be judged by the same standards of other coaches
"Judge him after three years" has quickly become "Give him a fourth year" just before the third season kicks off
Accountability is a problem at the Blues. I include the board and the coaches in that.
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@crucial said in Blues 2018:
It's virtually impossible for all NZ teams to make it through.
Well that first sentence implies you think they'll come last. You'll note my prediction was relatively positive. I don't think they'll finish 5th for a 3rd time under Umaga. If the damage is limited in the first 6 weeks that draw suddenly looks good.
5th, 5th & 5th should be sackable. Do I think he will get sacked if there is no improvement? Unfortunately the answer is no. It seems Umaga is a special needs coach and should not be judged by the same standards of other coaches
"Judge him after three years" has quickly become "Give him a fourth year" just before the third season kicks off
Accountability is a problem at the Blues. I include the board and the coaches in that.
@duluth said in Blues 2018:
@crucial said in Blues 2018:
It's virtually impossible for all NZ teams to make it through.
Well that first sentence implies you think they'll come last. You'll note my prediction was relatively positive. I don't think they'll finish 5th for a 3rd time under Umaga. If the damage is limited in the first 6 weeks that draw suddenly looks good.
5th, 5th & 5th should be sackable. Do I think he will get sacked if there is no improvement? Unfortunately the answer is no. It seems Umaga is a special needs coach and should not be judged by the same standards of other coaches
"Judge him after three years" has quickly become "Give him a fourth year" just before the third season kicks off
Accountability is a problem at the Blues. I include the board and the coaches in that.
I get all that, I just think that coming 5th in the NZ conference is often due to the strength of the other teams rather than the 5th team's inabilities. If all 5 NZ teams are even equally strong one still has to come 5th and likely miss out on finals. Its the structure of the comp whereby finals slots get handed to shit teams from other countries in place of a strong NZ team.
Let's say the three undoubtably strongest teams in the comp are from NZ. That makes a likely 6 losses on the books of the other 2
Aside from that aspect, have a look at AB representation through the teams, or rather top string AB representation. Winning teams attract top signings also and that makes it even harder to recruit.
Whoever comes 5th in NZ is going to carry a fail tag despite their performance levels. -
Speaking of coaches - im really interested to see how the scrum goes (with a new scrum coach in Afeaki and no Prattley) as well as the maul defence - two areas of real weakness for a long time for the Blues.
Prop selection is a tough one too. Manu is probably the better scrummager on the loosehead but he was well off the pace around the field
The change with the attack coach is where I am hopeful. Last year we looked so easy to defend against.
One off runners, no options, hardly any offloads because no one was there. It was so easy for the defence to see who was taking it to the line and smash them.
Then late in matches the players would get frustrated and start with the miracle playsGiven how many narrow loses there were (3 narrow losses to NZ teams and a draw), even a handful of extra tries across the season might flip some results
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@duluth said in Blues 2018:
@crucial said in Blues 2018:
It's virtually impossible for all NZ teams to make it through.
Well that first sentence implies you think they'll come last. You'll note my prediction was relatively positive. I don't think they'll finish 5th for a 3rd time under Umaga. If the damage is limited in the first 6 weeks that draw suddenly looks good.
5th, 5th & 5th should be sackable. Do I think he will get sacked if there is no improvement? Unfortunately the answer is no. It seems Umaga is a special needs coach and should not be judged by the same standards of other coaches
"Judge him after three years" has quickly become "Give him a fourth year" just before the third season kicks off
Accountability is a problem at the Blues. I include the board and the coaches in that.
I get all that, I just think that coming 5th in the NZ conference is often due to the strength of the other teams rather than the 5th team's inabilities. If all 5 NZ teams are even equally strong one still has to come 5th and likely miss out on finals. Its the structure of the comp whereby finals slots get handed to shit teams from other countries in place of a strong NZ team.
Let's say the three undoubtably strongest teams in the comp are from NZ. That makes a likely 6 losses on the books of the other 2
Aside from that aspect, have a look at AB representation through the teams, or rather top string AB representation. Winning teams attract top signings also and that makes it even harder to recruit.
Whoever comes 5th in NZ is going to carry a fail tag despite their performance levels.@crucial coming 5th over and over in a group of 5 is a strong indicator you haven't really improved.
Removing the vagueness of the pools with home and away, winning your home derbies is a key focus, you come last in 5, you come last in 5, and if you have done that on 3 previous years without improving your position...
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@duluth said in Blues 2018:
@crucial said in Blues 2018:
It's virtually impossible for all NZ teams to make it through.
Well that first sentence implies you think they'll come last. You'll note my prediction was relatively positive. I don't think they'll finish 5th for a 3rd time under Umaga. If the damage is limited in the first 6 weeks that draw suddenly looks good.
5th, 5th & 5th should be sackable. Do I think he will get sacked if there is no improvement? Unfortunately the answer is no. It seems Umaga is a special needs coach and should not be judged by the same standards of other coaches
"Judge him after three years" has quickly become "Give him a fourth year" just before the third season kicks off
Accountability is a problem at the Blues. I include the board and the coaches in that.
I get all that, I just think that coming 5th in the NZ conference is often due to the strength of the other teams rather than the 5th team's inabilities. If all 5 NZ teams are even equally strong one still has to come 5th and likely miss out on finals. Its the structure of the comp whereby finals slots get handed to shit teams from other countries in place of a strong NZ team.
Let's say the three undoubtably strongest teams in the comp are from NZ. That makes a likely 6 losses on the books of the other 2
Aside from that aspect, have a look at AB representation through the teams, or rather top string AB representation. Winning teams attract top signings also and that makes it even harder to recruit.
Whoever comes 5th in NZ is going to carry a fail tag despite their performance levels.Yes its a tough job with high standards.
I don't remember you being so forgiving of Hammett? His results were better. Has any other NZ coach finished last of the NZ teams 3 times and kept their job? I can't imagine the wagons circling other NZ coaching personalities if they got a wooden spoon 3-peat
But it hasn't happened yet.. I expect a tangible improvement and the Chiefs to have a tough season
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@crucial coming 5th over and over in a group of 5 is a strong indicator you haven't really improved.
Removing the vagueness of the pools with home and away, winning your home derbies is a key focus, you come last in 5, you come last in 5, and if you have done that on 3 previous years without improving your position...
@taniwharugby said in Blues 2018:
@crucial coming 5th over and over in a group of 5 is a strong indicator you haven't really improved.
Removing the vagueness of the pools with home and away, winning your home derbies is a key focus, you come last in 5, you come last in 5, and if you have done that on 3 previous years without improving your position...
That's very much an over simplification. If in the first year you don't win a thing and come last by a mile but by the last year win plenty of cross pool games, have narrow loses against your pool and come last by only a few points you are still improving relative to your own performance.
Don't think umaga should be guaranteed the job forever but if he does get sacked it should be because there is a better option or because of performance across the whole competition rather than just performance relative to the other NZ teams.
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@taniwharugby said in Blues 2018:
@crucial coming 5th over and over in a group of 5 is a strong indicator you haven't really improved.
Removing the vagueness of the pools with home and away, winning your home derbies is a key focus, you come last in 5, you come last in 5, and if you have done that on 3 previous years without improving your position...
That's very much an over simplification. If in the first year you don't win a thing and come last by a mile but by the last year win plenty of cross pool games, have narrow loses against your pool and come last by only a few points you are still improving relative to your own performance.
Don't think umaga should be guaranteed the job forever but if he does get sacked it should be because there is a better option or because of performance across the whole competition rather than just performance relative to the other NZ teams.
@pukunui people say winning ugly is still winning, so why doesn't that apply to losing, pretty or otherwise?
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Yes its a tough job with high standards.
I don't remember you being so forgiving of Hammett? His results were better. Has any other NZ coach finished last of the NZ teams 3 times and kept their job? I can't imagine the wagons circling other NZ coaching personalities if they got a wooden spoon 3-peat
But it hasn't happened yet.. I expect a tangible improvement and the Chiefs to have a tough season
@duluth said in Blues 2018:
Yes its a tough job with high standards.
I don't remember you being so forgiving of Hammett? His results were better. Has any other NZ coach finished last of the NZ teams 3 times and kept their job? I can't imagine the wagons circling other NZ coaching personalities if they got a wooden spoon 3-peat
But it hasn't happened yet.. I expect a tangible improvement and the Chiefs to have a tough season
For one, Hammett operated under a different comp structure which wasn't as harsh. Secondly T is untouchable because he coached CM to their first Shield. He gets a lifelong pass for that.
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@duluth said in Blues 2018:
Yes its a tough job with high standards.
I don't remember you being so forgiving of Hammett? His results were better. Has any other NZ coach finished last of the NZ teams 3 times and kept their job? I can't imagine the wagons circling other NZ coaching personalities if they got a wooden spoon 3-peat
But it hasn't happened yet.. I expect a tangible improvement and the Chiefs to have a tough season
For one, Hammett operated under a different comp structure which wasn't as harsh. Secondly T is untouchable because he coached CM to their first Shield. He gets a lifelong pass for that.
@crucial said in Blues 2018:
Secondly T is untouchable because he coached CM to their first Shield. He gets a lifelong pass for that.
Oh I'm aware that some people have an emotional attachment to Umaga for various reasons and are willing to waive normal standards when judging him as a SR coach
Just be honest about the tingly feelings he gives you and don't pretend its a logical position. Your mind is clouded by your love
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@crucial said in Blues 2018:
Secondly T is untouchable because he coached CM to their first Shield. He gets a lifelong pass for that.
Oh I'm aware that some people have an emotional attachment to Umaga for various reasons and are willing to waive normal standards when judging him as a SR coach
Just be honest about the tingly feelings he gives you and don't pretend its a logical position. Your mind is clouded by your love
@duluth said in Blues 2018:
@crucial said in Blues 2018:
Secondly T is untouchable because he coached CM to their first Shield. He gets a lifelong pass for that.
Oh I'm aware that some people have an emotional attachment to Umaga for various reasons and are willing to waive normal standards when judging him as a SR coach
Just be honest about the tingly feelings he gives you and don't pretend its a logical position. Your mind is clouded by your love
I thought I was just honest about that?
I still stand by my points about the '5th place in NZ' though.
It can be a poor result and it can also be a shit result after good performances missing a pinch of luck or a poor decision. THat's how tight the NZ conference can be.
By all means judge a coach on whether they have an under performing team against sides they should beat. Or when they are obviously a rabble that are under prepared and have bad tactics.
What I see with The Blues is a team that is trying hard but not only are the other sides in NZ more stable and attracting better players, they can't get that 'winning feeling' going that adds the confidence they need to start closing out games. Yes, it is a chicken and egg thing but I think NZers have to be realistic. Minimum of one team will always miss out on the finals. Be that team twice and it is a hard road back up as players prefer the other franchises. Doesn't mean you are a poorly coached team, just means you need to find the way to climb out of the hole.
Give T the Hurricanes and they will still be good. -
Yet I am the one predicting an improvement
You are a huge Umaga cheerleader but expect him to have a wooden spoon 3-peat. Reading re-emptive excuses why Umaga shouldn't be blamed for a poor season he hasn't had yet implies that his biggest fans don't actually rate him.
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Yet I am the one predicting an improvement
You are a huge Umaga cheerleader but expect him to have a wooden spoon 3-peat. Reading re-emptive excuses why Umaga shouldn't be blamed for a poor season he hasn't had yet implies that his biggest fans don't actually rate him.
@duluth said in Blues 2018:
Yet I am the one predicting an improvement
You are a huge Umaga cheerleader but expect him to have a wooden spoon 3-peat. Reading re-emptive excuses why Umaga shouldn't be blamed for a poor season he hasn't had yet implies that his biggest fans don't actually rate him.
It’s more that I am being optimistic about the Chiefs and I always underestimate the Highlanders.
If there’s one team that kills my tipping it’s the Blues. They lose when I back them and when I try to learn my lesson they win. -
@crucial said in Blues 2018:
Secondly T is untouchable because he coached CM to their first Shield. He gets a lifelong pass for that.
Oh I'm aware that some people have an emotional attachment to Umaga for various reasons and are willing to waive normal standards when judging him as a SR coach
Just be honest about the tingly feelings he gives you and don't pretend its a logical position. Your mind is clouded by your love
@duluth said in Blues 2018:
@crucial said in Blues 2018:
Secondly T is untouchable because he coached CM to their first Shield. He gets a lifelong pass for that.
Oh I'm aware that some people have an emotional attachment to Umaga for various reasons and are willing to waive normal standards when judging him as a SR coach
Just be honest about the tingly feelings he gives you and don't pretend its a logical position. Your mind is clouded by your love
I think your comparing of Tana with Hammett is way off base (and the reverse emotional attachment?). Hammett took over a team filled with ABs, many who played a starring role in the upcoming RWC. He melted the team down, alienated a large proportion of the fanbase and didn't ever take the Canes to the finals with a squad comparatively better than any of Tana's Blues teams (especially in relation to other NZ squads).
Tana inherited the 5th best team in NZ, with the 5th best squad in NZ and he's had the 5th best squad in NZ for the last two years.
Blues fans might not see any improvement, but I think outsiders have noticed improvements, marginal that they may be.
In saying all that, if he doesn't make the finals this year then he should go, assuming of course there's someone better to replace him.
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I think with Tana it is best to wait until the end of the season and then make an assessment - with the Blues having a very tough first 4 weeks playing with essentially the 3rd choice 10 it could very well start poorly but not necessarily a fair picture of how Tana is tracking.
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I think the blues have improved under Tana in their standard of play , even if its not reflected in results so much ,
Not arguing he deserves to keep his job , but i do believe they have made improvements under his coaching which at least has been better than his predecessors IMO
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@kiwimurph said in Blues 2018:
matt-duffie-hugely-motivated-to-complete-his-restoration-mission-with-the-blues
The Blues need a Pact! That'll sort them out
