Rough tips and other bets...
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@JK said in Rough tips and other bets...:
@Chris-B said in Rough tips and other bets...:
@JK said in Rough tips and other bets...:
@JK said in Rough tips and other bets...:
Nah mate small stakes for random shit like that.
There are two bets actually, both have the same 3 legs down and both have roosters to win as 4th leg. They both have different final legs which will discuss IF 4th leg gets up, along with possible hedge options to lock in a return. Oh and both can't win.
One is $50 to $16,037 so ony $321.75 to $1
The other is $25 to $22,095 so $884.81 to $1So the Roosters got up which means my multis are still live. Tense game!
One (the $50 one) has final leg as All Blacks to win world cup. The other ($25) has England to win.
Assuming England beat france and we both win quarters we should meet in the semis and then one progress to final and one live bet. Not sure would have the balls to ride it out so could hedge it with a big bet on the opposition.
I will be taking great interest in most games from here on in!
I'd imagine you'd be pretty delighted if Wales win the other semi - Wales at $4.25 a much more attractive hedge than SA at $2.27!
SA are $2.75 at the moment, only a 4.5point head start. So three options.
- Let it ride....@$22k on the line....well really its just the $50 outlay (or so I keep telling myself)
- Chuck approx $8k on SA at $2.75 meaning $22k return and $14k profit for either winner
- Try double up and take SA +4.5 @ $1.90. Means $11k bet required and worst case (ie England win by 5 or more) then an $11k return. BUT if SA win or England win by 4 points or less then return would be $22k plus another $10k from the SA +4.5
Interested in any other ideas tho.
Decisions...decisions
The ticket....
Fark me. That is one helluva bet coming in there!
But the Boks are going to win. So make your call accordingly
@JK Glad to hear you were sensible enough to lay it off mate. I did warn you
@Billy-Webb said in Rough tips and other bets...:
Fark me. That is one helluva bet coming in there!
But the Boks are going to win. So make your call accordingly
Congrats on the cash!
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@JK Glad to hear you were sensible enough to lay it off mate. I did warn you
@Billy-Webb said in Rough tips and other bets...:
Fark me. That is one helluva bet coming in there!
But the Boks are going to win. So make your call accordingly
Congrats on the cash!
@Billy-Webb said in Rough tips and other bets...:
@JK Glad to hear you were sensible enough to lay it off mate. I did warn you
@Billy-Webb said in Rough tips and other bets...:
Fark me. That is one helluva bet coming in there!
But the Boks are going to win. So make your call accordingly
Congrats on the cash!
Congrats on the Win!
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@Billy-Webb said in Rough tips and other bets...:
@JK Glad to hear you were sensible enough to lay it off mate. I did warn you
@Billy-Webb said in Rough tips and other bets...:
Fark me. That is one helluva bet coming in there!
But the Boks are going to win. So make your call accordingly
Congrats on the cash!
Congrats on the Win!
@JK Thanks JK. Feels jolly good to get the trophy off you blokes, even if just for a bit
The 100th test between us should be pretty epic!
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The course is likely going to be chewed after the first six races, I don’t think I’ll want anything at the rail coming ‘round the turn, I’m leaning towards a closer like Raymond Tuck coming 6-or-7 wide and using the best part of the straight. I’ll be doing most of my handicapping closer to race time and tossing a few balls in the air. I’ll play a WPS on a single horse; single the same horse on top of a $2-or-$4 trifecta; and probably play a smaller $1 trifecta using two or three horses on top. Probably throwing a hundred bucks away, but if you hit there should be a nice little jackpot.
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The course is likely going to be chewed after the first six races, I don’t think I’ll want anything at the rail coming ‘round the turn, I’m leaning towards a closer like Raymond Tuck coming 6-or-7 wide and using the best part of the straight. I’ll be doing most of my handicapping closer to race time and tossing a few balls in the air. I’ll play a WPS on a single horse; single the same horse on top of a $2-or-$4 trifecta; and probably play a smaller $1 trifecta using two or three horses on top. Probably throwing a hundred bucks away, but if you hit there should be a nice little jackpot.
@Salacious-Crumb said in Rough tips and other bets...:
The course is likely going to be chewed after the first six races, I don’t think I’ll want anything at the rail coming ‘round the turn, I’m leaning towards a closer like Raymond Tuck coming 6-or-7 wide and using the best part of the straight. I’ll be doing most of my handicapping closer to race time and tossing a few balls in the air. I’ll play a WPS on a single horse; single the same horse on top of a $2-or-$4 trifecta; and probably play a smaller $1 trifecta using two or three horses on top. Probably throwing a hundred bucks away, but if you hit there should be a nice little jackpot.
Flemington is one of the best draining courses on the planet. It goes from a slow 7 to a dead 4 in half a day.
I think with a bit of warm sunshine, they could be racing on a dead 4. What's it rated at at the moment?
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What’s the morning-line odds on a sjw peta protester running onto the track during the race? God, let’s hope not.
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@Salacious-Crumb said in Rough tips and other bets...:
The course is likely going to be chewed after the first six races, I don’t think I’ll want anything at the rail coming ‘round the turn, I’m leaning towards a closer like Raymond Tuck coming 6-or-7 wide and using the best part of the straight. I’ll be doing most of my handicapping closer to race time and tossing a few balls in the air. I’ll play a WPS on a single horse; single the same horse on top of a $2-or-$4 trifecta; and probably play a smaller $1 trifecta using two or three horses on top. Probably throwing a hundred bucks away, but if you hit there should be a nice little jackpot.
Flemington is one of the best draining courses on the planet. It goes from a slow 7 to a dead 4 in half a day.
I think with a bit of warm sunshine, they could be racing on a dead 4. What's it rated at at the moment?
@Hooroo said in Rough tips and other bets...:
@Salacious-Crumb said in Rough tips and other bets...:
The course is likely going to be chewed after the first six races, I don’t think I’ll want anything at the rail coming ‘round the turn, I’m leaning towards a closer like Raymond Tuck coming 6-or-7 wide and using the best part of the straight. I’ll be doing most of my handicapping closer to race time and tossing a few balls in the air. I’ll play a WPS on a single horse; single the same horse on top of a $2-or-$4 trifecta; and probably play a smaller $1 trifecta using two or three horses on top. Probably throwing a hundred bucks away, but if you hit there should be a nice little jackpot.
Flemington is one of the best draining courses on the planet. It goes from a slow 7 to a dead 4 in half a day.
I think with a bit of warm sunshine, they could be racing on a dead 4. What's it rated at at the moment?
I think good4 or soft5 at worst come time of the MC
Currently soft 6
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@Hooroo said in Rough tips and other bets...:
@Salacious-Crumb said in Rough tips and other bets...:
The course is likely going to be chewed after the first six races, I don’t think I’ll want anything at the rail coming ‘round the turn, I’m leaning towards a closer like Raymond Tuck coming 6-or-7 wide and using the best part of the straight. I’ll be doing most of my handicapping closer to race time and tossing a few balls in the air. I’ll play a WPS on a single horse; single the same horse on top of a $2-or-$4 trifecta; and probably play a smaller $1 trifecta using two or three horses on top. Probably throwing a hundred bucks away, but if you hit there should be a nice little jackpot.
Flemington is one of the best draining courses on the planet. It goes from a slow 7 to a dead 4 in half a day.
I think with a bit of warm sunshine, they could be racing on a dead 4. What's it rated at at the moment?
I think good4 or soft5 at worst come time of the MC
Currently soft 6
@JK said in Rough tips and other bets...:
@Hooroo said in Rough tips and other bets...:
@Salacious-Crumb said in Rough tips and other bets...:
The course is likely going to be chewed after the first six races, I don’t think I’ll want anything at the rail coming ‘round the turn, I’m leaning towards a closer like Raymond Tuck coming 6-or-7 wide and using the best part of the straight. I’ll be doing most of my handicapping closer to race time and tossing a few balls in the air. I’ll play a WPS on a single horse; single the same horse on top of a $2-or-$4 trifecta; and probably play a smaller $1 trifecta using two or three horses on top. Probably throwing a hundred bucks away, but if you hit there should be a nice little jackpot.
Flemington is one of the best draining courses on the planet. It goes from a slow 7 to a dead 4 in half a day.
I think with a bit of warm sunshine, they could be racing on a dead 4. What's it rated at at the moment?
I think good4 or soft5 at worst come time of the MC
Currently soft 6
Do they call it "Soft" over there? (Where we would call it a "Dead6" then it would be a 'Slow7))
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@JK said in Rough tips and other bets...:
@Hooroo said in Rough tips and other bets...:
@Salacious-Crumb said in Rough tips and other bets...:
The course is likely going to be chewed after the first six races, I don’t think I’ll want anything at the rail coming ‘round the turn, I’m leaning towards a closer like Raymond Tuck coming 6-or-7 wide and using the best part of the straight. I’ll be doing most of my handicapping closer to race time and tossing a few balls in the air. I’ll play a WPS on a single horse; single the same horse on top of a $2-or-$4 trifecta; and probably play a smaller $1 trifecta using two or three horses on top. Probably throwing a hundred bucks away, but if you hit there should be a nice little jackpot.
Flemington is one of the best draining courses on the planet. It goes from a slow 7 to a dead 4 in half a day.
I think with a bit of warm sunshine, they could be racing on a dead 4. What's it rated at at the moment?
I think good4 or soft5 at worst come time of the MC
Currently soft 6
Do they call it "Soft" over there? (Where we would call it a "Dead6" then it would be a 'Slow7))
@Hooroo said in Rough tips and other bets...:
@JK said in Rough tips and other bets...:
@Hooroo said in Rough tips and other bets...:
@Salacious-Crumb said in Rough tips and other bets...:
The course is likely going to be chewed after the first six races, I don’t think I’ll want anything at the rail coming ‘round the turn, I’m leaning towards a closer like Raymond Tuck coming 6-or-7 wide and using the best part of the straight. I’ll be doing most of my handicapping closer to race time and tossing a few balls in the air. I’ll play a WPS on a single horse; single the same horse on top of a $2-or-$4 trifecta; and probably play a smaller $1 trifecta using two or three horses on top. Probably throwing a hundred bucks away, but if you hit there should be a nice little jackpot.
Flemington is one of the best draining courses on the planet. It goes from a slow 7 to a dead 4 in half a day.
I think with a bit of warm sunshine, they could be racing on a dead 4. What's it rated at at the moment?
I think good4 or soft5 at worst come time of the MC
Currently soft 6
Do they call it "Soft" over there? (Where we would call it a "Dead6" then it would be a 'Slow7))
Yeah mate
Firm Good Soft Heavy
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@Hooroo said in Rough tips and other bets...:
@JK said in Rough tips and other bets...:
@Hooroo said in Rough tips and other bets...:
@Salacious-Crumb said in Rough tips and other bets...:
The course is likely going to be chewed after the first six races, I don’t think I’ll want anything at the rail coming ‘round the turn, I’m leaning towards a closer like Raymond Tuck coming 6-or-7 wide and using the best part of the straight. I’ll be doing most of my handicapping closer to race time and tossing a few balls in the air. I’ll play a WPS on a single horse; single the same horse on top of a $2-or-$4 trifecta; and probably play a smaller $1 trifecta using two or three horses on top. Probably throwing a hundred bucks away, but if you hit there should be a nice little jackpot.
Flemington is one of the best draining courses on the planet. It goes from a slow 7 to a dead 4 in half a day.
I think with a bit of warm sunshine, they could be racing on a dead 4. What's it rated at at the moment?
I think good4 or soft5 at worst come time of the MC
Currently soft 6
Do they call it "Soft" over there? (Where we would call it a "Dead6" then it would be a 'Slow7))
Yeah mate
Firm Good Soft Heavy
@JK said in Rough tips and other bets...:
@Hooroo said in Rough tips and other bets...:
@JK said in Rough tips and other bets...:
@Hooroo said in Rough tips and other bets...:
@Salacious-Crumb said in Rough tips and other bets...:
The course is likely going to be chewed after the first six races, I don’t think I’ll want anything at the rail coming ‘round the turn, I’m leaning towards a closer like Raymond Tuck coming 6-or-7 wide and using the best part of the straight. I’ll be doing most of my handicapping closer to race time and tossing a few balls in the air. I’ll play a WPS on a single horse; single the same horse on top of a $2-or-$4 trifecta; and probably play a smaller $1 trifecta using two or three horses on top. Probably throwing a hundred bucks away, but if you hit there should be a nice little jackpot.
Flemington is one of the best draining courses on the planet. It goes from a slow 7 to a dead 4 in half a day.
I think with a bit of warm sunshine, they could be racing on a dead 4. What's it rated at at the moment?
I think good4 or soft5 at worst come time of the MC
Currently soft 6
Do they call it "Soft" over there? (Where we would call it a "Dead6" then it would be a 'Slow7))
Yeah mate
Firm Good Soft Heavy
That's annoying. I wish we were the same. Fast, Good, Dead, Slow & Heavy
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@Salacious-Crumb said in Rough tips and other bets...:
The course is likely going to be chewed after the first six races, I don’t think I’ll want anything at the rail coming ‘round the turn, I’m leaning towards a closer like Raymond Tuck coming 6-or-7 wide and using the best part of the straight. I’ll be doing most of my handicapping closer to race time and tossing a few balls in the air. I’ll play a WPS on a single horse; single the same horse on top of a $2-or-$4 trifecta; and probably play a smaller $1 trifecta using two or three horses on top. Probably throwing a hundred bucks away, but if you hit there should be a nice little jackpot.
Flemington is one of the best draining courses on the planet. It goes from a slow 7 to a dead 4 in half a day.
I think with a bit of warm sunshine, they could be racing on a dead 4. What's it rated at at the moment?
@Hooroo said in Rough tips and other bets...:
@Salacious-Crumb said in Rough tips and other bets...:
The course is likely going to be chewed after the first six races, I don’t think I’ll want anything at the rail coming ‘round the turn, I’m leaning towards a closer like Raymond Tuck coming 6-or-7 wide and using the best part of the straight. I’ll be doing most of my handicapping closer to race time and tossing a few balls in the air. I’ll play a WPS on a single horse; single the same horse on top of a $2-or-$4 trifecta; and probably play a smaller $1 trifecta using two or three horses on top. Probably throwing a hundred bucks away, but if you hit there should be a nice little jackpot.
Flemington is one of the best draining courses on the planet. It goes from a slow 7 to a dead 4 in half a day.
I think with a bit of warm sunshine, they could be racing on a dead 4. What's it rated at at the moment?
Soft 6 right now. Rail has gone out 3m to take care of most of the chop from Saturday. While they are not expecting any more rain, they don't think it will dry out too much.
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got Finche and Master of Realty in office sweep...
@taniwharugby said in Rough tips and other bets...:
got Finche and Master of Realty in office sweep...
good score with Finche
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@taniwharugby said in Rough tips and other bets...:
got Finche and Master of Realty in office sweep...
good score with Finche
@voodoo said in Rough tips and other bets...:
@taniwharugby said in Rough tips and other bets...:
got Finche and Master of Realty in office sweep...
good score with Finche
favourite never wins!
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@voodoo said in Rough tips and other bets...:
@taniwharugby said in Rough tips and other bets...:
got Finche and Master of Realty in office sweep...
good score with Finche
favourite never wins!
@mariner4life yeah, 23% record of favs getting up apparently. Still, imagine that's better than the record of the rank outsider!
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Think I'll do the usual flexi-tri, aiming to get c. 20% of the pool with a large group of runners - the strategy that hasn't been successful for me in this race since 1998 when I got the Jezabeel/Champagne/Persian Punch tri!
I also like Mustajeer (and particularly DO on board), will have a go EW there
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@voodoo said in Rough tips and other bets...:
@taniwharugby said in Rough tips and other bets...:
got Finche and Master of Realty in office sweep...
good score with Finche
favourite never wins!
@mariner4life said in Rough tips and other bets...:
@voodoo said in Rough tips and other bets...:
@taniwharugby said in Rough tips and other bets...:
got Finche and Master of Realty in office sweep...
good score with Finche
favourite never wins!
I’d be very surprised if any selection is within a couple dollars of No. 2 for favouritism at post-time. I have reservations whether she can stay, but have to go with it for safety in my multis, simply can’t leave out.
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Sadly, I have to overthink it, because to me it’s a fun puzzle that I’m almost certain to lose, and losing a hundred is no small potatoes, so I need to overthink my donation.
I try to handicap the field down to six horses, a process of elimination that occasionally involves a blindfold and a flag. Hey, it’s The Melbourne Cup, ffs!
I hated to drop a few that will likely come back to bite me in the ass (I’m looking at you Finche, you too Il Paradiso...)... My six multi-wager selections are:
#8 MUSTAJEER; #2 MER DE GRACE and with hand firmly over my heart #18 SURPRISE BABY (for wins); and
#1 CROSS COUNTER; #3 MASTER OF REALITY; and #13 RAYMOND TUSK to fill the minors.
I like Mustajeer. I reckon Mer De Grace won’t like the soft turf and distance may be a bridge too far, but I learned the hard way in the Caulfield and have to keep her safe. As for Surprise Baby, nothing would make me happier than to see a Kiwibred win, especially if I have dollars wagered. It’s a huge leap in class and might not be able to handle the pressure, but it’s a gamble I am compelled to take.
Ticket #1:
$1 EXACTA box
1-3,8,18/ 1-3,8,18
Total $30Ticket #2:
$2 TRIFECTA box
2,8,18/ 2,8,18
Total $12Ticket #3:
$2 TRIFECTA straight
8/ 1-3,13,18/ 1-3,13,18
Total $40Ticket #4:
$1 TRIFECTA straight
2,18/ 1-3,8,13,18/ 1-3,8,13,18
Total $40TOTAL WAGER: $122.
