All Blacks vs Wales

Provincial Stalwart

A pretty good team Chris, and a bold (perhaps prescient) call to go with the extra prop over a 4th midfielder. That midfield guy is not really putting his hand up. I'd take McKenzie over Dagg, and both if they don't need a 4th midfielder. I'm taking 18 forwards though. 
 
My team has Dixon over Luatua, plus Taufua. I think Dixon is the 2nd best 6 in the country behind Test Match Kaino and has been the best 6 over the last two SR seasons. I don't really see the logic in Luatua's selection (I also don't think he's physical enough). He is a jack of all trades covering 6, 8 and lock (in that order?). I'd say they'd pick Tuipolutu and a 6 or a 7 on the bench (most likely Dixon).
 
Luatua is obviously not in the top four locks, and surely not in the top 2 6's is he? Both Dixon and Taufua are better 6's than Luatua, and I'd say those two and Liam Squire are a better bet at 8 (though probably keeping the seat warm for Akira Ioane). Maybe Luatua is the 2nd best no 8, I'm not sure. The depth at 8 is certainly less convincing than the depth at 6, though 8 is probably the more demanding position. The reserve 8 position is also a bit redundant in this squad as the captain plays that position and will play 80 almost every time.
 
Tuipolotu was outstanding in 2014 coming off the bench in tandem with a loose forward (Messam or Cane were used) and would have been on the bench last year if not injured. Therefore the Vito / Cane bench at RWC would have been Tuipolutu and probably Vito. Though PT's form is unconvincingish this year the ABs will be keen to recreate his debut season.

Crucial

Chris, I have adjusted yours for my guess of what I think they will go with
 
Owen Franks 
Charlie Faumuina <strike>Jeff Toomaga-Allen</strike> 
Dane Coles 
Codie Taylor 
Nathan Harris 
Joe Moody 
Wyatt Crockett <strike>Kane Hames</strike> 
Sam Whitelock 
Brodie Retallick 
Patrick Tuipolotu 
Luke Romano
Dominic Bird 
Jerome Kaino 
Stephen Luatua <strike>Jordan Taufua</strike>
Matt Todd
Luke Whitelock 
Sam Cane 
Ardie Savea 
Kieran Read 
Aaron Smith 
Brad Weber 
TJ Perenara 
Aaron Cruden 
Lima Sopoaga 
Beauden Barrett 
Ryan Crotty 
Malakai Fekitoa 
Charlie Ngatai 
Julian Savea 
Waisake Naholo 
Ben Smith
Damian McKenzie <strike>Israel Dagg</strike>

Chris B.

Can't disagree with too much of that PS.
 
To be honest, I haven't watched much of Luatua this year (nor Dixon for that matter), so I'm going on the advice of the Blues supporters who I asked the other day about Luatua - and my own observations of the excellent Taufua. Does Dixon play eight? I think we need someone who can cover No. 8 for Read's potential injuries, we need a loose forward to sit on the bench, and we need to be grooming whomever is going to ultimately replace Kaino. Squire might be somewhere in that picture.
 
I kind of think we have to have six props, so I'd probably have left out a lock or one of the blindsides if I'd gone with 14 backs.

Bovidae

I'm not convinced Taufua will be selected due to his size - he's smaller than Cane. Dixon has to be picked and has played all 3 loose forward positions for the Highlanders. Hansen and co will be loyal so I don't see too many changes - that probably helps Luatua's cause. I also think Moala could be included as a utility back to cover wing and midfield. As Barrett would be the back-up FB in a test squad, Dagg or DMac might be surplus to requirements as well.

Billy Tell

32-man squad (18 forwards, 14 backs).
 
1. Moody => 16. Crockett (also Goodes)
2. Coles => 17. Taylor (also Harris)
3. Franks => 18. Faumuina
4. Retallick => 19. Tuipolotou
5. Whitelock (also Romano)
6. Kaino (also Dixon)
7. Cane => 20. Savea (also Todd)
8. Read (capt.)
 
9. Smith => 21. Kerr-Barlow if not still injured (also Weber)
10. Cruden => 22. Barrett (also Sopoaga)
11. Savea
12. Crotty => 23. Ngatai
13. Fekitoa (also Moala)
14. Naholo
15. Smith (also Dagg)
 
I suppose the major interest in the selection is whether McKenzie gets the nod.

Crucial

My squad may be one short on the props and one too many on the loosies. Swap out Dixon for a prop (possibly Goodes)

Crucial

TKB unlikely unless they think he will be right for the last test. Prognosis was 6 weeks out. Maybe TKB picked and Weber asked to attend training as emergency.

KiwiMurph

It's a little bit harsh to talk about Luatua's ability at 6 when he's barely played at 6 this season, if at all (he certainly hasn't started there from my memory, maybe a handful of minutes throughout the season in the second halves but I don't remember much of it at all) - he's been playing 8 (and a bit of lock).
 
He's easily had his best season since 2013. He might be left out, and fairly so due to the outstanding form of other options, but he certainly has earned his spot if he does sneak in.
 
That's the outstanding thing about this weekend, NZ derbies (and a good test for the Chiefs away v Tahs), great opportunities for all these fringe contenders to make their final AB push.

Chris B.

<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="Crucial" data-cid="582487" data-time="1464148508">
<div>
Chris, I have adjusted yours for my guess of what I think they will go with
 
 
Chris Bird 

</div>
</blockquote>
 
A nice gesture, but that's not my name and I am too short and old to play lock. :)
 
Bird might push out Romano and Todd might push out Savea, but I think otherwise they're surplus to requirements.
 
I don't think you can get away with four props - as someone pointed out to me the other day, what if one of them pulls a calf muscle during warm-ups? I'm not sure we can even get away with five - have we got one who can credibly play both sides at test level? Edit: I see you've addressed that.

Crucial

Ha. Fixed it. Multitasking at work on the fern and dealing with a Chris at the time.

sparky

<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="KiwiMurph" data-cid="582253" data-time="1464086073">
Not sure there is much use having both Barrett and Dagg on the bench - if Ngatai can't go then someone like Moala would be useful (covers wing, midfield)</blockquote>Moala's strengths are his versatility and athleticism? But what about his composure and temperament? I'm not entirely sold on him based on what I've seen on the Blues backline this year. Does he have the goods to develop into a world class player? I'd love him to be the new Ma'a Nonu but he doesn't seem to have Nonu's passing skills, balance or work rate. 
The advantage of both Barrett and Dagg is that they are proven performers at the highest level: World Cup knock outs and Tests in South Africa. Both are seasoned internationals. To be honest, I see Moala as a project player at this stage, worth a spot in the wider squad but probably not in the first test line-up.

KiwiMurph

<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="sparky" data-cid="582515" data-time="1464151401">
<div>
Moala's strengths are his versatility and athleticism? But what about his composure and temperament? I'm not entirely sold on him based on what I've seen on the Blues backline this year. Does he have the goods to develop into a world class player? I'd love him to be the new Ma'a Nonu but he doesn't seem to have Nonu's balance or work rate. 
The advantage of both Barrett and Dagg is that they are proven performers at the highest level: World Cup knock outs and Tests in South Africa. Both are seasoned internationals. To be honest, I see Moala as a project player at this stage, worth a spot in the squad but probably not in the first test.
</div>
</blockquote>
 
I'm talking purely of the makeup of the bench in the team you named.
 
Having both Barrett and Dagg on the bench doesn't seem the right balance. Moala was just the first player that I could think of that would fit that the role of midfield covering wing. Someone like a Richard Buckman would fit that role as well (if he was fit and playing like he was last year).

hydro11

<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="Crucial" data-cid="582487" data-time="1464148508">
<div>
Chris, I have adjusted yours for my guess of what I think they will go with
 
Owen Franks 
Charlie Faumuina <strike>Jeff Toomaga-Allen</strike> 
Dane Coles 
Codie Taylor 
Nathan Harris 
Joe Moody 
Wyatt Crockett <strike>Kane Hames</strike> 
Sam Whitelock 
Brodie Retallick 
Patrick Tuipolotu 
Luke Romano
Dominic Bird 
Jerome Kaino 
Stephen Luatua <strike>Jordan Taufua</strike>
Matt Todd
Luke Whitelock 
Sam Cane 
Ardie Savea 
Kieran Read 
Aaron Smith 
Brad Weber 
TJ Perenara 
Aaron Cruden 
Lima Sopoaga 
Beauden Barrett 
Ryan Crotty 
Malakai Fekitoa 
Charlie Ngatai 
Julian Savea 
Waisake Naholo 
Ben Smith
Damian McKenzie <strike>Israel Dagg</strike>
</div>
</blockquote>
 
No chance that they are only taking 4 props.
 
I definitely think Moala is valuable as well. No one else in the squad can play midfield and wing.

Crucial

I reckon 5 props in the official squad and one or two others invited to training.

Catogrande

<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="sparky" data-cid="582515" data-time="1464151401">
<div>
Moala's strengths are his versatility and athleticism? But what about his composure and temperament? I'm not entirely sold on him based on what I've seen on the Blues backline this year. Does he have the goods to develop into a world class player? I'd love him to be the new Ma'a Nonu but he doesn't seem to have Nonu's passing skills, balance or work rate....
</div>
</blockquote>
 
Neither did Nonu when he was first picked for NZ. If ever there was a player that dramatically changed my perception of their skills and worth it was Nonu.

mariner4life

It's apparently very easy for people to forget what Nonu was like 2003-2008. He certainly was not the best 12 i have ever seen, like he was over the past few years (that's right, I'm calling it, he was better than Horan by the end). 
 
Suspect hands, suspect temperament, suspect workrate, suspect vision, suspect passing. In addition to the best 12 i have seen, he may also be the player who most improved/evolved over his career i ever saw. 2003 Nonu and 2015 Nonu are worlds apart.

dogmeat

I'm not certain about best 12 but most improved given how mediocre he was for a while is a very good call

Nepia

<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="mariner4life" data-cid="582565" data-time="1464157066">
<div>
It's apparently very easy for people to forget what Nonu was like 2003-2008. He certainly was not the best 12 i have ever seen, like he was over the past few years (that's right, I'm calling it, he was better than Horan by the end). 
 
Suspect hands, suspect temperament, suspect workrate, suspect vision, suspect passing. In addition to the best 12 i have seen, he may also be the player who most improved/evolved over his career i ever saw. 2003 Nonu and 2015 Nonu are worlds apart. 
</div>
</blockquote>
So you're saying he's Kata like? ;)
 
The 2003 version of Nonu busted defences apart, but I think he dropped off the boil a bit not long after (maybe 2nd year blues?), but agree 100% that he's probably the player who improved the most over his career.
 
Not sure I agree he's better than Horan ... but maybe I have Stockholm Syndrome being a Sydney-ite now.

Bones

Is everyone too scared to say it? We need a 6/8 that covers lock? Welcome back lucky Luke.

cgrant

Both Canes props have improved greatly this year as far as scrum is concerned. I had big doubts about JTA's qualities as a scrummager but he has done surprisingly well during the last four rounds. As NZ THP stocks are thin, maybe he could get a call, at least in a wider squad for training. Goodes is the third best LHP in NZ. He could get a call as well.
I don't see Mitch Graham nor Hohneck in the mix while Ofa T chances have diminished dramatically since the game vs the Crusaders.

The Silver Fern

All Blacks vs Wales