NFL
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LOL!
After ruling out the Browns, Deshaun Watson has chosen the Browns
5 year $230mil (fully guaranteed)
**Deal hasn't been finalised yet, but it is being work on
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3 firsts and change. That's a lot of draft capital but the Browns roster is pretty good and if they're competing they'll be able to attract the top free agents.
230m for 5 years is expensive but doesn't reset the QB market. The fully guaranteed part might. I rate Watson and think he's a top 10 QB and an long as he keeps producing at that level the Browns will be happy. But there's no off ramp for them so if he struggles to adjust after a year off or if his suspension is worse than expected then they're dead.
AFC North catching up with the West. Burrow, Lamar and now Watson. Meanwhile Steelers have Rudolph and Trubisky in a competition... Might be a tough few years ahead for the Steelers.
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3 firsts and change. That's a lot of draft capital but the Browns roster is pretty good and if they're competing they'll be able to attract the top free agents.
230m for 5 years is expensive but doesn't reset the QB market. The fully guaranteed part might. I rate Watson and think he's a top 10 QB and an long as he keeps producing at that level the Browns will be happy. But there's no off ramp for them so if he struggles to adjust after a year off or if his suspension is worse than expected then they're dead.
AFC North catching up with the West. Burrow, Lamar and now Watson. Meanwhile Steelers have Rudolph and Trubisky in a competition... Might be a tough few years ahead for the Steelers.
@cyclops said in NFL Season 2020/21/22:
230m for 5 years is expensive but doesn't reset the QB market. The fully guaranteed part might. I rate Watson and think he's a top 10 QB and an long as he keeps producing at that level the Browns will be happy. But there's no off ramp for them so if he struggles to adjust after a year off or if his suspension is worse than expected then they're dead.
The QB market is borked. Good QB have all the power - GM just have to take a punt, mortgage the farm, and bet it all on a player. Imagine how much Brady could get if he wanted the cash? It'd be nuts.
Remember, the cap resets shortly, and with betting money, $45M a year for a reasonable QB could soon be a bargain. Provided he doesn't get RG3'd running the ball
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Okay so the Watson deal might be worse than I thought. His base salary this year is $1 million and he gets a 45m signing bonus. That means his cap hit this year is 10m. The low base salary might be the browns managing their cap or in might be because he's expecting a suspension and his base salary is pro rated for games missed.
I was expecting a fully guaranteed 5 year deal to be relatively evenly spread. But with the law hit this year than means the other 4 years his cap hit is going to be 55m. Plus if the trade him the signing bonus will all be charged at once rather than prorated across the life of the deal so even if they try to trade him they'll have to eat at least 9m per year remaining dead cap.
Yes the salary cap is projected to go up and yes there is a big new tv deal coming, but that hit is the biggest is the league. And making it fully guaranteed makes it impossible to get out.
The full structure isn't out yet, the will be interesting. I suspect it's going to be backloaded further so I wouldn't be surprised if the final years cap hits are over 60m. This deal is really a commitment for 6 or 7 years because they're going to have to extend him to spread the cap hits over the last couple of years. (Although that can probably be done with void years if he's below average).
If Watson is the 10th best QB in the league, the Browns might actually regret this deal. I think he needs to be top 5 for them to be clearly winning.
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JuJu Smith-Schuster to the Chiefs
The AFC West continues to be an arms race
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Okay so the Watson deal might be worse than I thought. His base salary this year is $1 million and he gets a 45m signing bonus. That means his cap hit this year is 10m. The low base salary might be the browns managing their cap or in might be because he's expecting a suspension and his base salary is pro rated for games missed.
I was expecting a fully guaranteed 5 year deal to be relatively evenly spread. But with the law hit this year than means the other 4 years his cap hit is going to be 55m. Plus if the trade him the signing bonus will all be charged at once rather than prorated across the life of the deal so even if they try to trade him they'll have to eat at least 9m per year remaining dead cap.
Yes the salary cap is projected to go up and yes there is a big new tv deal coming, but that hit is the biggest is the league. And making it fully guaranteed makes it impossible to get out.
The full structure isn't out yet, the will be interesting. I suspect it's going to be backloaded further so I wouldn't be surprised if the final years cap hits are over 60m. This deal is really a commitment for 6 or 7 years because they're going to have to extend him to spread the cap hits over the last couple of years. (Although that can probably be done with void years if he's below average).
If Watson is the 10th best QB in the league, the Browns might actually regret this deal. I think he needs to be top 5 for them to be clearly winning.
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Always a very knowledgeable guy.
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/33541834/long-nfl-reporter-john-clayton-dies-67
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@bovidae said in NFL Season 2020/21/22:
Always a very knowledgeable guy.
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/33541834/long-nfl-reporter-john-clayton-dies-67
I was quite surprised. He's younger than I thought. Always seemed like a knowledgeable guy
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@kiwimurph said in NFL Season 2020/21/22:
More QB movement
Matt Ryan traded to the Colts for a 3rd round pick.
Falcons sign Marcus Mariota.
Mariota? Do they think they can get a tune out of him, or is he a cheap replacement while they rebuild?
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@kiwimurph said in NFL Season 2020/21/22:
More QB movement
Matt Ryan traded to the Colts for a 3rd round pick.
Falcons sign Marcus Mariota.
Mariota? Do they think they can get a tune out of him, or is he a cheap replacement while they rebuild?
@canefan said in NFL Season 2020/21/22:
@kiwimurph said in NFL Season 2020/21/22:
More QB movement
Matt Ryan traded to the Colts for a 3rd round pick.
Falcons sign Marcus Mariota.
Mariota? Do they think they can get a tune out of him, or is he a cheap replacement while they rebuild?
More the latter. Falcons had to eat a huge chunk of salary cap to deal Ryan.
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@canefan said in NFL Season 2020/21/22:
@kiwimurph said in NFL Season 2020/21/22:
More QB movement
Matt Ryan traded to the Colts for a 3rd round pick.
Falcons sign Marcus Mariota.
Mariota? Do they think they can get a tune out of him, or is he a cheap replacement while they rebuild?
More the latter. Falcons had to eat a huge chunk of salary cap to deal Ryan.
@kiwimurph said in NFL Season 2020/21/22:
@canefan said in NFL Season 2020/21/22:
@kiwimurph said in NFL Season 2020/21/22:
More QB movement
Matt Ryan traded to the Colts for a 3rd round pick.
Falcons sign Marcus Mariota.
Mariota? Do they think they can get a tune out of him, or is he a cheap replacement while they rebuild?
More the latter. Falcons had to eat a huge chunk of salary cap to deal Ryan.
I didn't track him last year, but Matt Ryan will be an upgrade on Wentz if he has any juice left
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@canefan said in NFL Season 2020/21/22:
@kiwimurph said in NFL Season 2020/21/22:
More QB movement
Matt Ryan traded to the Colts for a 3rd round pick.
Falcons sign Marcus Mariota.
Mariota? Do they think they can get a tune out of him, or is he a cheap replacement while they rebuild?
More the latter. Falcons had to eat a huge chunk of salary cap to deal Ryan.
40m dead cap. Almost 20% of the total cap.
Baker still on the market but that's about it. Saints signing Winston to a 2 year deal. Can't see Baker moving anywhere now, and Jimmy will presumably stay at the 49ers. Maybe the Panthers might a move for one of them. Don't think either is a clear upgrade on Darnold though. Small improvement probably but they're probably better off with the picks and cap space. Very small chance that the Seahawks make a move. They seem happy with what they've got and more likely to treat Lock as a bridge while they develop a rookie.
Other than that, looks like the QB market is pretty much settled until draft day.
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@dice said in NFL Season 2020/21/22:
Remember the days when you could get a 1st for Sam Bradford?
Unique situation when Vikings lost their starting QB to an ACL one week before the season.
@kiwimurph True, although I don't think he was close to being worth a 1st.
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40m dead cap. Almost 20% of the total cap.
Baker still on the market but that's about it. Saints signing Winston to a 2 year deal. Can't see Baker moving anywhere now, and Jimmy will presumably stay at the 49ers. Maybe the Panthers might a move for one of them. Don't think either is a clear upgrade on Darnold though. Small improvement probably but they're probably better off with the picks and cap space. Very small chance that the Seahawks make a move. They seem happy with what they've got and more likely to treat Lock as a bridge while they develop a rookie.
Other than that, looks like the QB market is pretty much settled until draft day.
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@cyclops NFL changes quick. Not that long ago Baker and Darnold were battling to be the number 1 overall draft pick.
@kiwimurph said in NFL Season 2020/21/22:
@cyclops NFL changes quick. Not that long ago Baker and Darnold were battling to be the number 1 overall draft pick.
Goes to show how tough it is to pick a top QB. I think scouts tend to focus too much on the physical gifts and less on the mental and character side. But I would imagine it is difficult to assess that in a 20 year old
