Rugby Stats

MajorPom

I was doing big data statistics before it was trendy.

Probably explains why I was quite shit at it.

For me, stats are great but they don't explain the one big thing. That being why.

Why did Akira Ioane top most statistics vs Australia and then become a bit of a non entity against the Boks? What was it that changed?

Thats the most important thing. Stats don't tell you a lot on top of what you see.

Chester Draws

One reason why teams should keep their statistics to themselves is that anything that is a measure will be gamed.

So if you tell players to raise their tackle statistic, they will make more tackles. They may well be useless tackles, but that is the cost of using statistics as a measure. Tell them they need to make more dominant tackles, and they will make more dominant tackles, but possibly fall off more simple ones trying too hard to make them dominant. The person using the statistics needs to say "X isn't tackling as well as we would expect" and the coach then work on their tackling in general.

Don't use statistics as a measure of success, well rather, not a measure that the target knows. And one way to ensure that is not publish them.

Except fitness statistics. Which I suspect is the one measure that professional coaches all care deeply about.

nostrildamus

@majorrage said in Rugby Stats:

I was doing big data statistics before it was trendy.

Probably explains why I was quite shit at it.

For me, stats are great but they don't explain the one big thing. That being why.

Why did Akira Ioane top most statistics vs Australia and then become a bit of a non entity against the Boks? What was it that changed?

Thats the most important thing. Stats don't tell you a lot on top of what you see.

It probably won't be that much more helpful but if we had a table of say all 6 loose forwards across both ABs and opponents and their relative %stats across all those games it might indicate where Akira was complemented better or negated more by the opposition?

I also wonder if it is possible and helpful to have time each player holds onto the ball and correlate it to overall possession time, field gained and points taken..(is one person likely to be hindering or speeding up play?) probably not but I wonder.

mikedogz

From rugby database

With Ma'a Nonu signing on for the 2024 season with San Diego Legion he is set to equal Jimmy Gopperth for the most calendar years playing first-class rugby by a New Zealander.

Making his debut in 2002, this will be his 23rd year.

antipodean

@mikedogz the most interesting stat is that he qualified for veterans rugby seven years ago!

Smuts

@Chester-Draws said in Rugby Stats:

One reason why teams should keep their statistics to themselves is that anything that is a measure will be gamed.

…

Don't use statistics as a measure of success, well rather, not a measure that the target knows. And one way to ensure that is not publish them.

This is an interesting discussion and @Chester-Draws point resonates. Players will optimize for whatever coaches measure and value. In my limited experience that can be useful.

Most of us loosely judge our performance on whatever we idealize as the key part of our game: “I took 2 tightheads”, “made a heap of turnovers”, “caught that ruck rat a few times, eh.?” And of course “ran 40 yards through 16 defenders and scored a beauty.”

Your more fanatical teammates might even have logged simple stats like tackles, turnovers & lineouts won, tries scored. More rarely knock ons, penalties given away, tackles missed.

But it’s eye-opening to see detailed, team-wide stats week on week. Especially when you’re forced to face your two turnovers against 3 breakdown penalties. Or tries v points directly conceded.

And really useful to motivate players to work harder on the hard graft v flash stuff. Hilarious to see props and centres bragging about first arrivals at rucks.

And especially for kids it’s a good way to encourage them to appreciate all the work that needs to be done to create a try and get them keen to do it.

If you’re coaching youngsters try getting the subs to keep simple stats on the game and then ask them what they see that should be a focus at halftime. Takes a few games, but soon enough they’ll start delivering pretty solid insights.

taniwharugby

@Smuts I am sure with the software available, they have all the stats they need for the specific positions, but I guess how many dominant scrum hits, TH losing his grip on impact, two handed lineout takes, successful ruck protection, static pass vs moving pass etc dont make for great stats like tackle busts, turnovers, metres gained or missed tackles.

That said, I'd love to have a bigger range of stats.

Smuts

As a fan the stats I’m most interested in at the moment are scrum resets/collapses to penalties, scrum collapses on own ball v opponents’ ball & broken down by field position.

I’d also like to see rucks that ended with no offensive player on their feet per team…

We can dream

mariner4life

@Smuts said in Rugby Stats:

I’d also like to see rucks that ended with no offensive player on their feet per team

that one is easy, just look at the total ruck stats

Bovidae

I was reading today that Sevu Reece's try against the Reds now means he has 100 tries in first class rugby. He is one of 5 current NZ players who have achieved that feat. That got me thinking of who were the other four. I've worked out two of them (see below) but some of the other likely candidates are short of 100 tries. Maybe I am forgetting about an obvious player, or there are some non-ABs with a lot of NPC tries.

Julian Savea
Rieko Ioane

Does anyone know who the other two players are?