Uber v Taxis
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<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="NTA" data-cid="608514" data-time="1471990713">
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<p>That fatality for Tesla will always hang around their necks like a millstone. Will be interesting to see how the other companies go once they're on the highway as well, rather than suburban streets and arterials.</p>
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<p>Yeah</p>
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<p>I think you either need full autonomy, or full self driving. in-between is suck ... you expect someone to sit there for weeks to months and then suddenly grab the wheel and make a smart decision?</p> -
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<a data-ipb='nomediaparse' href='http://www.gq.com/story/the-uber-killer'>http://www.gq.com/story/the-uber-killer</a><br><br>
Uber killer backstory -
<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="nzzp" data-cid="608515" data-time="1471991034">
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<p>Yeah</p>
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<p>I think you either need full autonomy, or full self driving. in-between is suck ... you expect someone to sit there for weeks to months and then suddenly grab the wheel and make a smart decision?</p>
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<p>In between lets people get all the benifits & get user to it while not needing the laws to catch up. If that had been full autonomous it'd have been a disaster for Tesla in a country as litigious as the US, as it wasn't they had a fall back & couldn't be touched. Sure the PR was bad, but not crippling.</p>
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<p>The next step is semi Auto taxis, so people who don't buy a Tesla can experience auto without the laws needing to be in place (because a driver is there). Rather than wait for the laws to be in place they are getting a groundswell of people demanding & experiencing full Auto, while a driver sits there for legal reasons. Its really smart. </p>
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<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="Godder" data-cid="608472" data-time="1471981906">
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<p>As said, it will start with trucks and busses. There is a shortage of truck drivers currently which incentivises them being first, so soon there will be a shortage of driving jobs instead.<br><br>
Taxis will quickly follow, and that's where the real cut-through will occur - when people stop using cars because it's cheaper to bus or taxi into work than drive and park.<br><br>
Likewise, if public transport can switch to electric driverless vehicles of various capacities, and pick up from and drop off to individual addresses for $1, people will actually use it in big numbers.</p>
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<p>Yeah, I fully expect within a few years most major city centres (eg the congestion zone in London) will be auto only. That's the easy way to roll it out. The less people actually living in the centre of a city the easier. Milton Keynes is already test running taxis.</p>
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<p>The biggest upside I can see (personally) is it'll make cycling to work viable & safe. At the moment the core thing stopping me is the abysmall standard of driving in London. In 5 years I'll be able to bike in without a black cab cutting me off or a bus turning across me. It'll be fricking great </p> -
<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="jegga" data-cid="608574" data-time="1472003620"><p><a class="bbc_url" href="http://www.gq.com/story/the-uber-killer">http://www.gq.com/story/the-uber-killer</a><br>
Uber killer backstory</p></blockquote>
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Crazy. I bet the tin-foiled hat brigade had a field-day with that too -
<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="gollum" data-cid="608684" data-time="1472029600">
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<p>In between lets people get all the benifits & get user to it while not needing the laws to catch up. If that had been full autonomous it'd have been a disaster for Tesla in a country as litigious as the US, as it wasn't they had a fall back & couldn't be touched. Sure the PR was bad, but not crippling.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>The next step is semi Auto taxis, so people who don't buy a Tesla can experience auto without the laws needing to be in place (because a driver is there). Rather than wait for the laws to be in place they are getting a groundswell of people demanding & experiencing full Auto, while a driver sits there for legal reasons. Its really smart. </p>
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<p>Yeah, I fully expect within a few years most major city centres (eg the congestion zone in London) will be auto only. That's the easy way to roll it out. The less people actually living in the centre of a city the easier. Milton Keynes is already test running taxis.</p>
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<p>The biggest upside I can see (personally) is it'll make cycling to work viable & safe. At the moment the core thing stopping me is the abysmall standard of driving in London. In 5 years I'll be able to bike in without a black cab cutting me off or a bus turning across me. It'll be fricking great </p>
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I have been cycling in to work in London for about 5 years, and been knocked off my bike twice. Both times: black taxi, pulling out without looking when I was going straight.</p> -
<p>What a crazy, chilling, interesting read. I want to share this with my wife, but I'm torn.</p>
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<p>Pro - get her off her fucking phone</p>
<p>Con - she'll be off her phone so want to talk to me whilst I'll be watching tv.</p>
<p>Pro - I don't like her using uber</p>
<p>Con - I like using uber</p>
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<p>Thanks for sharing the article though jegga, fascinating read.</p> -
<p><a data-ipb='nomediaparse' href='http://www.stuff.co.nz/motoring/news/83575880/worlds-first-selfdriving-taxis-debut-in-singapore'>http://www.stuff.co.nz/motoring/news/83575880/worlds-first-selfdriving-taxis-debut-in-singapore</a></p>
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<p>So Stuff are reporting this - basically a full trial of driverless taxis in singapore, albeit with a minder initially. The company is looking at deployment in 2018 -- amazing that we are about to move into production so soon. Not vapourware!</p> -
My expectation is most people will move towards subscription based transportation ie driverless uber. This will be particularly attractive for young singles / couples, maybe less so for families - I know I could make it work if the price was right (really, its just about ensuring car seats and stroller storage which is easily solved)<br>The benefits (for me) of subscription would far outweigh those for ownership<br>- No outright expense required<br>- No Garage or OSP required<br>- No Insurance<br>- No Maintainence / Running Costs<br>- No driving aimlessly looking for Parking at loaded shopping centers<br>- No more drink driving!<br>- Statistically safer driving meaning less road deaths over time<br>- No requirement for a drivers license<br>- Ability to be productive/consuming en route<br>- Completely new types of car services would be feasible... they'd be more likely novelty but they would differentiate competitiors (ie a car that has a movie/music library service or office facilities, food, flat beds (for long hauls)<br><br>I expect car ownership becoming a luxury in the future... millenials are already unlikely to own a car and this will tick their boxes, especially those that live in cities where the public transport is not quite adequate (in fact, perhaps public transport gets phased out over time)
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That is a pretty big fail. Can't use the "same colour as the sky" defence from the other incident.
The article is from September, but apparently this happened in January. Interesting that it took so long to come to light.
Typically the Tesla cars are reporting back fairly regularly, so going dark for 6 months would surely be picked up?
Could it be the data wasn't getting out of China through the regular internet setup?
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@NTA said in Uber v Taxis:
Could it be the data wasn't getting out of China through the regular internet setup?
Quite possibly, which you expect would mean the car wasn't getting updates to the OS either.
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@antipodean I think I'll choose to ride in manned cabs for now
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@NTA said in Uber v Taxis:
That is a pretty big fail. Can't use the "same colour as the sky" defence from the other incident.
On the plus side, it stays bang on dead centre in the lane. So for all bar the last half second that software is functioning perfectly.
This is sort of the thing that annoys me - and will more so in the future with self drive. That video will be on the news, it'll be viral, it'll be front page. The 2,000 identical instances where a drunk driver, a sleeping driver, a guy texting, changing the radio, trying to answer his phone etc do exactly that wont be.
I'd be more alarmed if we were choosing between pretty good self drive & perfect humans, but we are choosing between pretty good self drive & staggeringly poor drivers with bad attention spans & reflexes that, compared to a computer, are pigshit. Self drive dopesn't have to cause zero deaths, it just has to cause 10% fewer than the alternative
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@canefan said in Uber v Taxis:
@antipodean I think I'll choose to ride in manned cabs for now
Just as dangerous in China. From Hyatt to train station in Shanghai I counted three lanes painted on the road and five lanes of traffic at one point.
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@gollum said in Uber v Taxis:
Self drive dopesn't have to cause zero deaths, it just has to cause 10% fewer than the alternative
Not sure about the 10%, I think it'll have to be an order of magnitude safer due to the perception of control.
What is good is I can really see US insurance companies driving the change. If you have to pay out $$$ for each death associated with the car, it becomes an offset to the cost of the self driving package.
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@nzzp said in Uber v Taxis:
@gollum said in Uber v Taxis:
Self drive dopesn't have to cause zero deaths, it just has to cause 10% fewer than the alternative
Not sure about the 10%, I think it'll have to be an order of magnitude safer due to the perception of control.
I agree for the public to accept it & the press not to go mental it needs to be above 10%, more like 90%. But for it to actually be a good idea 10% is fine.
Which is why I expect China to be a mile ahead of the west in self drive pretty fast, as their standards are bad & no one will bitch about it. IE because their driving is so bad, the bar for self drive is pretty low. And no matter what the government can just impose it (more or less).
It's one of those where ther public should simply be forced to accept it once it gets to a threshold where its better than the alternatives (same deal with say vaccines).
If you rely on the public to decide if something is better for them it'll never happen. Everyone thinks they are awesome drivers, same way everyone knows someone who's kid spontaneously combusted from a measles jab or for whom rescue remedy cured their cancer. The public are fucking idiots.
In China they'll just impose it & they'll cut 10% of road deaths straight away, 20% the next year, 50% the next etc. While the the west will run footage like the above & talk about the madness on Chinese roads. Then in 20 years Didi Chuxing with have a market cap 5x Apple.
