Aussie Pro Rugby
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@mariner4life said in Aussie Rugby:
There is significant danger that what we are seeing now is not a temporary blip, but the beginning of the end for the code as a serious force.
agree with everything except this....i think the beginning was a long time ago, the AB's success from 2010 - 2019 kind of plastered over cracks and the aussie rugby kind of rode on the coat tails by being in the RC and super rugby
If im honest im worried NZ is just where aussie was a decade ago, in 10 years we're going to be on here debating why concentrating almost solely on the international game and only investing on the very best of the best hasn't worked
@Kiwiwomble that's actually very fair comment
We can't decide on a structure for NZ moving forward either. And where Aus have a bunch of guys who think the Shute Shield is the way to go because that's what historical success came from, we have people who still think the NPC should be the bedrock.
The NH have shown if you build a solid club game, international success flows from that. NZ and Australia are still thinking the opposite (i used to think it was only Aus but your comment actually made me think about it).
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This morning felt like rock bottom for Australian rugby, it really did. And unfortunately for NZ, we are intrinsically tied to them.
There is significant danger that what we are seeing now is not a temporary blip, but the beginning of the end for the code as a serious force.
Everyone knows the current format is not working for them, and interest is at an all-time low. The problem is, what next? The ARU are broke, and it's already a case of community rugby paying up to fund the elite level, rather than the other way around. The two big football codes go from strength to strength, hoover up more fans and more resources, and spend heaps on development pathways. Rugby is two decades behind in this, and catch up is really hard to do.A little over 2 decades ago rugby was flying here. Wallabies were the World Cup holders, we had the Lions series that almost single-handedly re-vamped the concept. The 2003 world cup was one of the best ever. Since then a series of shithouse decisions has been made by i cavalcade of either Sydney investment bankers, or dangerously under-qualified old boys has reduced the code to it's current state, broke, hidden behind a streaming service, best players overseas, and no interest.
And we are slowly getting fucked because of it. Our super rugby teams are getting soft feeding on easy kills for half of the comp. Our skills are deteriorating because we don't need them more then 3 times a season. The Bledisloe lost its shine a decade ago. Super Rugby is going with it. And our major partner is staring down the barrell of irrelevance.
A big issue is, what is probably best for NZ is Australia do nothing, and just continue on the same path. Because the alternatives are a national reset, a process that would take a decade at least, and just further erode our only competition, or they just pack it in all together and leave us with nothing.
Huge danger signs for NZ rugby.
@mariner4life said in Aussie Rugby:
This morning felt like rock bottom for Australian rugby, it really did.
It does right now.
But whenever RA reach the bottom of the barrel, they'll say "hand me that axe, would ya?"
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If you think about some of the things that make and keep a country strong on the international stage, you'd have a list looking something like this:
- lots of engaged players
- strong and growing community support
- well-run administration
- access to strong competitions with like-minded countries
NZ and Oz will always be down the list on #1 (see below, sorted for Adult males)
We have had success with #2 for a long time, Australia less so in recent years.
#3 seems to be an issue for us both right now
#4 we had this once, but even then it wasn't perfect given the way Super rugby is played. The RC helped with regular competition against SA. Right now, we have nothing - geographically we are pretty fcked, and long ago we opted to play Australia 17 times every year cos money or something.
To be honest, I think the strength of #1 and #4 for NH teams is going to be really hard to turn around for both NZ and Oz. I can totally see why SA opted to join them, and they're never coming back. We are in danger of turning into Argentina.
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@Kiwiwomble that's actually very fair comment
We can't decide on a structure for NZ moving forward either. And where Aus have a bunch of guys who think the Shute Shield is the way to go because that's what historical success came from, we have people who still think the NPC should be the bedrock.
The NH have shown if you build a solid club game, international success flows from that. NZ and Australia are still thinking the opposite (i used to think it was only Aus but your comment actually made me think about it).
@mariner4life my current feeling is concentrating on only the best of the best is too narrow, we've seen that 3-4 of the super teams will all be trying to play the same style of rugby...it doesn't allow for innovation....so it works when it works....but when it doesnt...you're fucked
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I think if you look at Australian rugby with a very long lens (since 1960) then this doesn't look like rock bottom. What it looks like is a reversion to the mean.
And the period from 1990-2003 is the outlier. As the code became more professional, Australia adapted much better than any other nation and were richly rewarded. As the other countries caught up, we've gone back to the pack.
So now we sit were we always have, maybe slightly below. We will rise and fall but the idea we will return to #1 is fanciful.
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If you think about some of the things that make and keep a country strong on the international stage, you'd have a list looking something like this:
- lots of engaged players
- strong and growing community support
- well-run administration
- access to strong competitions with like-minded countries
NZ and Oz will always be down the list on #1 (see below, sorted for Adult males)
We have had success with #2 for a long time, Australia less so in recent years.
#3 seems to be an issue for us both right now
#4 we had this once, but even then it wasn't perfect given the way Super rugby is played. The RC helped with regular competition against SA. Right now, we have nothing - geographically we are pretty fcked, and long ago we opted to play Australia 17 times every year cos money or something.
To be honest, I think the strength of #1 and #4 for NH teams is going to be really hard to turn around for both NZ and Oz. I can totally see why SA opted to join them, and they're never coming back. We are in danger of turning into Argentina.
@voodoo do you really think NZ still has a "strong and growing community support"? feels like thats been dwindling for years, in any tangible way anyway anyway, everyone saying they support the local team when asked is very different to actually giving over their time and or money
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@voodoo do you really think NZ still has a "strong and growing community support"? feels like thats been dwindling for years, in any tangible way anyway anyway, everyone saying they support the local team when asked is very different to actually giving over their time and or money
@Kiwiwomble said in Aussie Rugby:
@voodoo do you really think NZ still has a "strong and growing community support"? feels like thats been dwindling for years, in any tangible way anyway anyway, everyone saying they support the local team when asked is very different to actually giving over their time and or money
I dunno mate, haven't lived in NZ since '99. I'd from afar that the population appears invested still at least, unlike Oz?
But if we don't have that either, then it's even more dire than I thought
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I think if you look at Australian rugby with a very long lens (since 1960) then this doesn't look like rock bottom. What it looks like is a reversion to the mean.
And the period from 1990-2003 is the outlier. As the code became more professional, Australia adapted much better than any other nation and were richly rewarded. As the other countries caught up, we've gone back to the pack.
So now we sit were we always have, maybe slightly below. We will rise and fall but the idea we will return to #1 is fanciful.
@barbarian said in Aussie Rugby:
I think if you look at Australian rugby with a very long lens (since 1960) then this doesn't look like rock bottom. What it looks like is a reversion to the mean.
And the period from 1990-2003 is the outlier. As the code became more professional, Australia adapted much better than any other nation and were richly rewarded. As the other countries caught up, we've gone back to the pack.
So now we sit were we always have, maybe slightly below. We will rise and fall but the idea we will return to #1 is fanciful.
When I suggested that elsewhere, a bunch of nuffies shouted me down.
Historically - prior to the 80s, say - we've had the odd good win against a proper rugby nation and long stretches of zero.
I think you could easily say Grand Slam through to 2001 we seriously overachieved, but for many that became the norm.
Hence why you see old farts saying Club Rugby is the answer.
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@Kiwiwomble said in Aussie Rugby:
@voodoo do you really think NZ still has a "strong and growing community support"? feels like thats been dwindling for years, in any tangible way anyway anyway, everyone saying they support the local team when asked is very different to actually giving over their time and or money
I dunno mate, haven't lived in NZ since '99. I'd from afar that the population appears invested still at least, unlike Oz?
But if we don't have that either, then it's even more dire than I thought
@voodoo I think people would become more invested in NPC if it was the main focus for NZR (below ABs) but that wont happen as it would appear NZR has all but washed its hands of the NPC.
NZR really needs to have a look at things and map a way forward from here, closer ties with Japan is one part of the equation for the money it will generate, but again this wont help our on field play.
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@Kiwiwomble said in Aussie Rugby:
@voodoo do you really think NZ still has a "strong and growing community support"? feels like thats been dwindling for years, in any tangible way anyway anyway, everyone saying they support the local team when asked is very different to actually giving over their time and or money
I dunno mate, haven't lived in NZ since '99. I'd from afar that the population appears invested still at least, unlike Oz?
But if we don't have that either, then it's even more dire than I thought
@voodoo NZ doesn't look much better to me, clubs going belly up, abysmal crowds in stands, i think some of us look at +60k people turning up to an AB's game and think all is fine....what we need to +20k every week for all teams in the super rugby
The fact the AB's can play in chch in the stadium with 25k capacity...and you can still get tickets the week of (that was my experience when living in chch)...aint good
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@voodoo NZ doesn't look much better to me, clubs going belly up, abysmal crowds in stands, i think some of us look at +60k people turning up to an AB's game and think all is fine....what we need to +20k every week for all teams in the super rugby
The fact the AB's can play in chch in the stadium with 25k capacity...and you can still get tickets the week of (that was my experience when living in chch)...aint good
@Kiwiwomble Yep
The purpose of my post was to paint a depressing picture, not a positive one. I'm actually a bit down on where we go from here, I genuinely think we are in for a long period of NH /SA dominance. Strong and well backed club game, with a really solid test window against quality teams - self-perpetuating stuff.
NZ can maybe replicate the club format (or NPC, I dunno), but that'll take time. And our geographic position means quality tests are always tough to schedule - we have years of experience of France and England sending C teams to play us in June, then we get the Wallabies who suck, and now SA don't want to play us anymore. Playing Japan is fun but ain't gonna solve the issue
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I think if you look at Australian rugby with a very long lens (since 1960) then this doesn't look like rock bottom. What it looks like is a reversion to the mean.
And the period from 1990-2003 is the outlier. As the code became more professional, Australia adapted much better than any other nation and were richly rewarded. As the other countries caught up, we've gone back to the pack.
So now we sit were we always have, maybe slightly below. We will rise and fall but the idea we will return to #1 is fanciful.
@barbarian said in Aussie Rugby:
I think if you look at Australian rugby with a very long lens (since 1960) then this doesn't look like rock bottom. What it looks like is a reversion to the mean.
And the period from 1990-2003 is the outlier. As the code became more professional, Australia adapted much better than any other nation and were richly rewarded. As the other countries caught up, we've gone back to the pack.
So now we sit were we always have, maybe slightly below. We will rise and fall but the idea we will return to #1 is fanciful.
I've been saying that for years to supporters whose expectations were set on a generation of outliers. People without a sense or knowledge of history. The amount of disbelief when you explain to some of them that the Wallabies have lost to Tonga for example. The sad aspect is it didn't have to be this way, but instead of becoming Ireland, they spent 20 years mismanaging it and squandering the opportunity.
That's why there's the hope that 2025-27 will be a great reset. But as the FIFA WWC showed, you need your team to be successful at the same time. Eddie may well be correct that there's quality in the current squad that will turn into world class players, but that light at the end of the tunnel is very dim.
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@voodoo NZ doesn't look much better to me, clubs going belly up, abysmal crowds in stands, i think some of us look at +60k people turning up to an AB's game and think all is fine....what we need to +20k every week for all teams in the super rugby
The fact the AB's can play in chch in the stadium with 25k capacity...and you can still get tickets the week of (that was my experience when living in chch)...aint good
@Kiwiwomble said in Aussie Rugby:
@voodoo NZ doesn't look much better to me, clubs going belly up, abysmal crowds in stands, i think some of us look at +60k people turning up to an AB's game and think all is fine....what we need to +20k every week for all teams in the super rugby
Why, when you can watch it from home and not get gouged for food and drinks at a ridiculous nonfamily friendly time?
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@Kiwiwomble said in Aussie Rugby:
@voodoo NZ doesn't look much better to me, clubs going belly up, abysmal crowds in stands, i think some of us look at +60k people turning up to an AB's game and think all is fine....what we need to +20k every week for all teams in the super rugby
Why, when you can watch it from home and not get gouged for food and drinks at a ridiculous nonfamily friendly time?
@antipodean i cant argue with that...but other sports manage it (and much more), so i think rugby is missing something
@Tim said in Aussie Rugby:
Australia needs to drop two SR teams, or there needs to be more NZ teams. Current competition isn't competitive.
personally i feel that means theyre only going to be developing less than a hundred top players...so i feel the latter is a better option, might lower the average skill level in the short term....but long term i think it will come back up
