All Blacks v BI Lions Test #3
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I am 100% the sky is falling down and unfortunately for me I don’t have any chill pills. Here’s why.
• Despite NZ winning the first test and almost winning the second while being a man down, there was enough in those two games to suggest to me this Lions team is one of the best teams I have seen in NZ for a very long time. And the ABs have looked vulnerable in areas where they have been very good in the past.
• High balls. It started with Ben SMITH dropping ones he would normally take in Auckland and it continued with Dagg putting a few down in Wellington. Plus Dagg having to pretty much take them all Wellington because of our wing selections.
• Kick off reception and clearing. The Lions are doing a bloody good job here. They are getting the ball high and deep and their chase is nicely timed for when the ABs take the ball. We seem to be getting pinned down near our 22 after scoring, giving the Lions a chance to bite back. There was a good example of this on the weekend near the end of the game. The ABs had just kicked a penalty and the lions kicked off deep as usual. Cruden took the ball and hesitated to kick it for fear of the ball being charged. A ruck followed and the ball was cleared to an under pressure kicker (possibly Barrett) who only managed to clear it to around the 22. The Lions scored a try in the following phases. This has happened a lot the whole tour. The Lions have been able to keep in touch because they have pressured the NZ teams outstandingly well at restart time.
• Line outs. We are starting to see body language in the NZ lineout reminiscent of the bad old days. I know there are extenuating circumstances with the Lions yelling over our calls and sometimes setting up camp down the middle of the lineout, but shit we look nervous. Taylor is taking an age to throw the ball in and when that happens you know the lineout is under pressure. I haven’t seen the lineout stats and I am guessing they won’t look too bad, but fuck we are looking nervous in that area.
• Counter attack. Even in Auckland when we had a full quota of players the Lions looked more dangerous than us on the counter attack. And they were creating more chances to counter attack. It seems when they spill the ball they are either first to the loose ball or if an AB gets there first he is immediately set upon by a number of Lions meaning a shitty pass gets thrown or we end up in a ruck situation where fast ball is not coming. When the ABs spill the ball it seems like the Lions have very little trouble in moving the ball wide to have a go.
• Rush defence. This is a magnificent part of the Lions game. Maybe they are offside a lot of the time but they have been doing it all tour and NZ teams, apart from every now and then, have looked very ineffective against it. I find myself yelling at the TV that the bastards are offside but game in game out the refs have not pinged them for it. Why? Are the Lions in fact not offside but appear that way to us/me because they are outstanding at this facet of the game? Surely if they live offside Hansen would have brought this to the attention of the refs pre game, but nothing seems to have changed.
• AB midfield/backline. We got away with it last year but I think we are seeing that Nonu and Smith are not proving easy to replace. To borrow a basketball term, at this stage in their careers, apart from Barrett and Aaron Smith, the NZ backline seems to be made up of role players. There doesn’t seem to be anyone out wide (especially with the absence of Ben Smith) who seems capable of saying “Fuck this, give me the ball I am going to win this bloody game.” Nonu used to do it against the very best, so too Smith. Noone is doing it for the ABs currently. This is why, despite me being a big fan of Goodhue and I am picking him to be a long term AB, I would not pick him for this weekend. Even for the Crusaders he is a role player at the moment, a very, very good one, but I have yet to see him take a game by the scruff of the neck. I am not sure the ABs have anyone willing and able (apart from 9 and 10) to take a game by the scruff.All of the above is tempered by last weekend. Because the ABs were down to 14 we have no idea of the relative merits of the two teams. Despite the score line in Auckland I felt that game could have gone either way. I also feel that the Lions nearly self-destructed in Wellington rather than the ABs outplaying the Lions during the time we built a lead. It seemed to me when the Lions finally got their shit together they scored pretty easily. Was this because the ABs were tiring? Who knows and we won’t know until the weekend.
I am sure I have forgotten something to worry about and I am sure I will remember in the dead of night when I am trying to sleep. I need a hug and somebody to tell me everything is going to be Ok.
@Crazy-Horse Great post. Interesting point about game breakers vs role players.
Speaking of game breakers. I think fairly or unfairly from an AB point of view a lot of eyes are going to be on Beauden Barrett in this game. He's the reigning World Player of the Year (leaving aside the history of this award is a little suspect) and he's replacing a guy who in the last Lions tour had one of the greatest 10 performances of all time - unfairly he's naturally going to be compared to Carter.
Now for Beauden he hasn't had the smoothest series - he's had to move back to fullback, his backline keeps changing, he's missed some kicks in Wellington/down to 14 men in Wellington etc.
Beauden is known for being able to create a magic play to either score or create a try. So far that hasn't happened in the series.
Can the Lions contain him in the 3rd test or will be spark something. It will be fascinating.
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I'll wait until team announcement and see if I get a feeling in me water
@Pot-Hale said in All Blacks v BI Lions Test #3:
I'll wait until team announcement and see if I get a feeling in me water
I think that will be Thursday, but you guys don't always play by the rules
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@Crazy-Horse Thanks for your thoughts mate, very interesting and nice to see some credit being attributed to the Lions; however I don't share your concerns re the All Blacks, they've not been too bad mate.
Interesting view on the rush/offside defence thing. For sure a rush defence is going to be on the margin all bloody game, but a few things make me think that it isn't quite as bad as has been suggested. As you've said, whilst this has been an issue for fans all the way through, it has not been quite so much an issue for a selection of refs and ARs, of different nationalities. Also we have not heard anything much (at least up here we haven't) from the NZ coaching team. I know Hansen doesn't moan much in public but he does have blokes to do that for him when required. Lastly, the Lions have given up a fair few penalties for offside (as you will with a rush defence), so it is not as if it is not being policed. Yeah, no doubt some have been missed but that's pretty standard.
The line out shit is just fucking embarrassing though and I'm ashamed that we have an Englishman as forwards coach and line out specialist that is letting this happen. Refs should be all over that.
@Catogrande said in All Blacks v BI Lions Test #3:
@Crazy-Horse Thanks for your thoughts mate, very interesting and nice to see some credit being attributed to the Lions; however I don't share your concerns re the All Blacks, they've not been too bad mate.
Interesting view on the rush/offside defence thing. For sure a rush defence is going to be on the margin all bloody game, but a few things make me think that it isn't quite as bad as has been suggested. As you've said, whilst this has been an issue for fans all the way through, it has not been quite so much an issue for a selection of refs and ARs, of different nationalities. Also we have not heard anything much (at least up here we haven't) from the NZ coaching team. I know Hansen doesn't moan much in public but he does have blokes to do that for him when required. Lastly, the Lions have given up a fair few penalties for offside (as you will with a rush defence), so it is not as if it is not being policed. Yeah, no doubt some have been missed but that's pretty standard.
The line out shit is just fucking embarrassing though and I'm ashamed that we have an Englishman as forwards coach and line out specialist that is letting this happen. Refs should be all over that.
This is pretty much my view.
I don't think the Lions are camped offside, I think they time it well. Sometimes the man 3rd or 4th out does get offside and gets away with it, but only sometimes.They are more onside than the average nz SR team imo. But they need to be as the rush would accentuate it if they were a metre offside like the typical NZ SR passive defence team.
The joker in the pack of refereeing the modern offside line is that often the 'last foot' is actually head and arms of an attacking team player doing naughty nonsense which stretches the length of a ruck while the defence has fanned out based on the (previous) last foot line.
So yes, I like Crucial's idea about the onus to be clearly onside , as offside is a bugbear of mine, but naughtiness of ruck cleanouts blowing over the ruck and grabbing people makes this subsequently harder to judge.
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As has been mentioned in the media over the last few days, I am expecting the ABs to bounce back like they did in Dublin last year after the loss in Chicago. That doesn't mean it will be easy but BBBR's comments yesterday reiterate that the players themselves know what is required to give themselves the best chance to win.
Even though we AB fans don't like losing, the Lions win in Wellington was exactly what the series needed. These games are called tests for a reason and everything is on the line in Auckland for the players and coaches. For those of us lucky enough to be at Eden Park, these are the games to look forward to.
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Well if we do lose the 3rd test, at least the Saders are still on top of Super rugby
The key thing for me this week is how will our attack draw in more numbers. Lions were very effective in fanning out quickly and realigning the defensive line that there were very few gaps. When there were some opportunities, the Lions scrambled well but did give away penalties.
I know some are particularly beholden to the "must take the 3", but there was at least two occasions that I had hoped we kicked to the corner and maul from 5m out to create a try. That's not a criticism of taking kicks (Barrett exceeding my expectations on that front), but I am not averse to them trying what might seem risky but has been a pretty fruitful play for us.
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Good to see Aura made her way into this article!
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Well if we do lose the 3rd test, at least the Saders are still on top of Super rugby
The key thing for me this week is how will our attack draw in more numbers. Lions were very effective in fanning out quickly and realigning the defensive line that there were very few gaps. When there were some opportunities, the Lions scrambled well but did give away penalties.
I know some are particularly beholden to the "must take the 3", but there was at least two occasions that I had hoped we kicked to the corner and maul from 5m out to create a try. That's not a criticism of taking kicks (Barrett exceeding my expectations on that front), but I am not averse to them trying what might seem risky but has been a pretty fruitful play for us.
Aaron Smith:
"They wanted to make it a struggle at the ruck, and we weren't able to be assertive with our carries. But we didn't help ourselves and we didn't attack where they weren't, and that's something we're going to fix this week. There was a lot more space than we thought. We've learned a lot from this game. There were opportunities there. Those opportunities will present themselves again this Saturday and we've got to be good enough to see them, and take them."
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I noticed Smith hardly ever box kicked after the rogue penalty on Retallick as a a pillar.
Went the traditional route with pass back to the 10 for clearing kicks.
I like that they were adaptable.
But I don't like clearing via the 10. Get so much more distance from the 9 usually. Would prefer better pillars.
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@Crazy-Horse said in All Blacks v BI Lions Test #3:
I am 100% the sky is falling down and unfortunately for me I don’t have any chill pills. Here’s why.
• Despite NZ winning the first test and almost winning the second while being a man down, there was enough in those two games to suggest to me this Lions team is one of the best teams I have seen in NZ for a very long time. And the ABs have looked vulnerable in areas where they have been very good in the past.
• High balls. It started with Ben SMITH dropping ones he would normally take in Auckland and it continued with Dagg putting a few down in Wellington. Plus Dagg having to pretty much take them all Wellington because of our wing selections.
• Kick off reception and clearing. The Lions are doing a bloody good job here. They are getting the ball high and deep and their chase is nicely timed for when the ABs take the ball. We seem to be getting pinned down near our 22 after scoring, giving the Lions a chance to bite back. There was a good example of this on the weekend near the end of the game. The ABs had just kicked a penalty and the lions kicked off deep as usual. Cruden took the ball and hesitated to kick it for fear of the ball being charged. A ruck followed and the ball was cleared to an under pressure kicker (possibly Barrett) who only managed to clear it to around the 22. The Lions scored a try in the following phases. This has happened a lot the whole tour. The Lions have been able to keep in touch because they have pressured the NZ teams outstandingly well at restart time.
• Line outs. We are starting to see body language in the NZ lineout reminiscent of the bad old days. I know there are extenuating circumstances with the Lions yelling over our calls and sometimes setting up camp down the middle of the lineout, but shit we look nervous. Taylor is taking an age to throw the ball in and when that happens you know the lineout is under pressure. I haven’t seen the lineout stats and I am guessing they won’t look too bad, but fuck we are looking nervous in that area.
• Counter attack. Even in Auckland when we had a full quota of players the Lions looked more dangerous than us on the counter attack. And they were creating more chances to counter attack. It seems when they spill the ball they are either first to the loose ball or if an AB gets there first he is immediately set upon by a number of Lions meaning a shitty pass gets thrown or we end up in a ruck situation where fast ball is not coming. When the ABs spill the ball it seems like the Lions have very little trouble in moving the ball wide to have a go.
• Rush defence. This is a magnificent part of the Lions game. Maybe they are offside a lot of the time but they have been doing it all tour and NZ teams, apart from every now and then, have looked very ineffective against it. I find myself yelling at the TV that the bastards are offside but game in game out the refs have not pinged them for it. Why? Are the Lions in fact not offside but appear that way to us/me because they are outstanding at this facet of the game? Surely if they live offside Hansen would have brought this to the attention of the refs pre game, but nothing seems to have changed.
• AB midfield/backline. We got away with it last year but I think we are seeing that Nonu and Smith are not proving easy to replace. To borrow a basketball term, at this stage in their careers, apart from Barrett and Aaron Smith, the NZ backline seems to be made up of role players. There doesn’t seem to be anyone out wide (especially with the absence of Ben Smith) who seems capable of saying “Fuck this, give me the ball I am going to win this bloody game.” Nonu used to do it against the very best, so too Smith. Noone is doing it for the ABs currently. This is why, despite me being a big fan of Goodhue and I am picking him to be a long term AB, I would not pick him for this weekend. Even for the Crusaders he is a role player at the moment, a very, very good one, but I have yet to see him take a game by the scruff of the neck. I am not sure the ABs have anyone willing and able (apart from 9 and 10) to take a game by the scruff.All of the above is tempered by last weekend. Because the ABs were down to 14 we have no idea of the relative merits of the two teams. Despite the score line in Auckland I felt that game could have gone either way. I also feel that the Lions nearly self-destructed in Wellington rather than the ABs outplaying the Lions during the time we built a lead. It seemed to me when the Lions finally got their shit together they scored pretty easily. Was this because the ABs were tiring? Who knows and we won’t know until the weekend.
I am sure I have forgotten something to worry about and I am sure I will remember in the dead of night when I am trying to sleep. I need a hug and somebody to tell me everything is going to be Ok.
Exhibit A your honour.
@Rancid-Schnitzel he does raise some legitimate issues however
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@Billy-Tell said in All Blacks v BI Lions Test #3:
The Lions have basically been unaffected by injury, they will have a core test team who will be well up for this.
This has been key in the incremental development of the Lions squad, Test 23 and game plan.
Don't get me wrong, I thought we'd blown it last Saturday and was left relieved but underwhelmed by the margin of victory.
But going into the decider we have a largely unchanged 23 who are peaking fitness wise, are more comfortable with the game plan, who trust each other, and who have a greater sense of how they're running off the ball and combining.
@MiketheSnow said in All Blacks v BI Lions Test #3:
@Billy-Tell said in All Blacks v BI Lions Test #3:
The Lions have basically been unaffected by injury, they will have a core test team who will be well up for this.
This has been key in the incremental development of the Lions squad, Test 23 and game plan.
Don't get me wrong, I thought we'd blown it last Saturday and was left relieved but underwhelmed by the margin of victory.
But going into the decider we have a largely unchanged 23 who are peaking fitness wise, are more comfortable with the game plan, who trust each other, and who have a greater sense of how they're running off the ball and combining
Our losses have been gradual , so probably less fuss has been made of them . But if a few months ago we knew we would be going into a decider without , Coles , b smith , sbw and crotty , we might be getting a little nervous .
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@Rancid-Schnitzel he does raise some legitimate issues however
@mariner4life said in All Blacks v BI Lions Test #3:
@Rancid-Schnitzel he does raise some legitimate issues however
Most of it was knee-jerk hysteria though. Like I said, it reminds me of the RWC.
Of course the abs have deficiencies and are always beatable on a given day, but you could just as easily write a 50,000 word essay lamenting why the Lions very nearly lost to 14 men.
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@mariner4life said in All Blacks v BI Lions Test #3:
@Rancid-Schnitzel he does raise some legitimate issues however
Most of it was knee-jerk hysteria though. Like I said, it reminds me of the RWC.
Of course the abs have deficiencies and are always beatable on a given day, but you could just as easily write a 50,000 word essay lamenting why the Lions very nearly lost to 14 men.
@Rancid-Schnitzel said in All Blacks v BI Lions Test #3:
Of course the abs have deficiencies and are always beatable on a given day, but you could just as easily write a 50,000 word essay lamenting why the Lions very nearly lost to 14 men.
I keep thinking of the counterfactual - how much damage would we do to the sport if we were able to beat the cream of the NH with 14 men. FFS, that's ridiculous - we shouldn't have been within 20 points of them. It's like we're playing on easy mode some days ... to lead with 5 to go was remarkable.
It's going to be huge this weekend. Like the first two test matches, if the ABs play to their potential, they win. We crushed them up front in Test 1 - being up by 30-8 with a couple of minutes to go is dominance. It's going to take a lot to beat this AB side, and some of that groundwork is already laid:
- Smith, Coles, SBW goooone
- French ref
- Wet weather
- Virtually an away game with visiting support
stuff it, I'll get our excuses in early. If we don't lose by less than 10 it's a victory, right?
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@Rocky-Rockbottom said in All Blacks v BI Lions Test #3:
@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in All Blacks v BI Lions Test #3:
There really are some incredibly negative people in the AB fan base.
We're born in blood and pain and we die alone.
And apparently are miserable for all the years in between......
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As has been mentioned in the media over the last few days, I am expecting the ABs to bounce back like they did in Dublin last year after the loss in Chicago. That doesn't mean it will be easy but BBBR's comments yesterday reiterate that the players themselves know what is required to give themselves the best chance to win.
Even though we AB fans don't like losing, the Lions win in Wellington was exactly what the series needed. These games are called tests for a reason and everything is on the line in Auckland for the players and coaches. For those of us lucky enough to be at Eden Park, these are the games to look forward to.
@Bovidae said in All Blacks v BI Lions Test #3:
As has been mentioned in the media over the last few days, I am expecting the ABs to bounce back like they did in Dublin last year after the loss in Chicago. That doesn't mean it will be easy but BBBR's comments yesterday reiterate that the players themselves know what is required to give themselves the best chance to win.
These bounce-back scenarios are pretty fascinating. For me it's about the balance between confidence vs fear of losing and how that changes between matches.
Going into Match1 you sensed the All Blacks were a bit more fearful with a relatively unknown opponent while the Lions were pretty confident on the basis of good wins against Maori and Crusaders, who they wrongly perceived as being pretty close to the All Blacks level.
The Lions then went into Match 2 with the balance heavily towards fear of losing and the All Blacks, although they'll deny it forever, were carrying too much confidence from their previous effort. For Match 3 the All Blacks will be back in the fear zone in a big way and if they can channel that into focus and not jitters, they'll win.
Amateurish pop psychology aside, I hope they select a Fekitoa - Lienert Brown midfield and leave the rest unchanged.
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@Bovidae said in All Blacks v BI Lions Test #3:
As has been mentioned in the media over the last few days, I am expecting the ABs to bounce back like they did in Dublin last year after the loss in Chicago. That doesn't mean it will be easy but BBBR's comments yesterday reiterate that the players themselves know what is required to give themselves the best chance to win.
These bounce-back scenarios are pretty fascinating. For me it's about the balance between confidence vs fear of losing and how that changes between matches.
Going into Match1 you sensed the All Blacks were a bit more fearful with a relatively unknown opponent while the Lions were pretty confident on the basis of good wins against Maori and Crusaders, who they wrongly perceived as being pretty close to the All Blacks level.
The Lions then went into Match 2 with the balance heavily towards fear of losing and the All Blacks, although they'll deny it forever, were carrying too much confidence from their previous effort. For Match 3 the All Blacks will be back in the fear zone in a big way and if they can channel that into focus and not jitters, they'll win.
Amateurish pop psychology aside, I hope they select a Fekitoa - Lienert Brown midfield and leave the rest unchanged.
@Marty said in All Blacks v BI Lions Test #3:
The Lions then went into Match 2 with the balance heavily towards fear of losing and the All Blacks, although they'll deny it forever, were carrying too much confidence from their previous effort. For Match 3 the All Blacks will be back in the fear zone in a big way and if they can channel that into focus and not jitters, they'll win.
Couldn't disagree more.
Match 2 I reckon we were playing our full 80 game. We don't often tear into things at the front end, so that we can finish over the top of teams in the last quarter. Until the Red Card on Saturday night, I had no fear that we would lose if we played close to our potential. On the other hand, I could see the intensity from the Lions being hard to maintain through the game.
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There really are some incredibly negative people in the AB fan base.
@Baron-Silas-Greenback I aren't seeing anyone being incredibly negative. I do see people expressing concerns over the possible outcome and AB shortcomings. Is that not allowed?
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@Marty said in All Blacks v BI Lions Test #3:
The Lions then went into Match 2 with the balance heavily towards fear of losing and the All Blacks, although they'll deny it forever, were carrying too much confidence from their previous effort. For Match 3 the All Blacks will be back in the fear zone in a big way and if they can channel that into focus and not jitters, they'll win.
Couldn't disagree more.
Match 2 I reckon we were playing our full 80 game. We don't often tear into things at the front end, so that we can finish over the top of teams in the last quarter. Until the Red Card on Saturday night, I had no fear that we would lose if we played close to our potential. On the other hand, I could see the intensity from the Lions being hard to maintain through the game.
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@Baron-Silas-Greenback I aren't seeing anyone being incredibly negative. I do see people expressing concerns over the possible outcome and AB shortcomings. Is that not allowed?
@Crazy-Horse no
we don't have shortcomings, just cheating dirty opposition and incompetent refs, sheesh, where the hell you been all these years?@Marty yeah will be interesting, with it all on the line will the Lions go to a more conservative game plan and try and shut us down up front?
