AB's v Wales
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@tordah said in AB's v Wales:
I guess Havili and Scott Barrett come in, then?
Tamanivalu should be a straight swap for Ioane. I'd prefer Pat T to start ahead of Barrett.
@bovidae said in AB's v Wales:
@tordah said in AB's v Wales:
I guess Havili and Scott Barrett come in, then?
Tamanivalu should be a straight swap for Ioane. I'd prefer Pat T to start ahead of Barrett.
Agree on Tamanivalu.
I’d prefer PT to come off the bench. The best rugby he’s ever played for the ABs has been in an impact role off the bench to close out games.
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@gunner said in AB's v Wales:
We’re in serious danger of losing this one.
Wales I’m not sure. If it was England or Ireland I’d have us as underdogs which is a bit sickening.
@billy-tell said in AB's v Wales:
@gunner said in AB's v Wales:
We’re in serious danger of losing this one.
Wales I’m not sure. If it was England or Ireland I’d have us as underdogs which is a bit sickening.
I'm not saying Wales are favourites, but they're as good a chance right now than they have been in a long while.
I'm always pretty confident that the ABs will win, but I just feel a bit uneasy about this one...
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I realise this is a tiny sample but here are the territoy and possession stats from the AB's last 4 tests.
Territory Possession
Scotland 34% 40%
France 46% 43%
Australia 43% 46%
SA 37% 36%Clearly we have some issues holding onto the ball in the right places. I can only assume its a tactic of the coaches to kick the ball back to the opposition and hope they make a mistake and score from broken play. Or perhaps teams who play the AB's do not want to kick the ball to our back 3 so they hold onto it for longer. Either way, I would have thought it would be easier to score points when you have the ball at the right end of the park.
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I realise this is a tiny sample but here are the territoy and possession stats from the AB's last 4 tests.
Territory Possession
Scotland 34% 40%
France 46% 43%
Australia 43% 46%
SA 37% 36%Clearly we have some issues holding onto the ball in the right places. I can only assume its a tactic of the coaches to kick the ball back to the opposition and hope they make a mistake and score from broken play. Or perhaps teams who play the AB's do not want to kick the ball to our back 3 so they hold onto it for longer. Either way, I would have thought it would be easier to score points when you have the ball at the right end of the park.
@chimoaus said in AB's v Wales:
Either way, I would have thought it would be easier to score points when you have the ball at the right end of the park.Not necessarily. The ABs have been shoddy these past few tests, however they do consistently score tries despite not having an advantage in possession or territory. This is directly related to them trying to score tries from all parts of the field - if it's on, they will go for it, even from deep in their own half. Which means they score tries more often - but also hand the ball back when it doesn't work out. So they could change their style and just rumble it endlessly, thereby improving their stats but not their points scoring as all teams struggle to score tries by "just holding onto the ball".
Similar to the flat or deep backline. The Scots appeared to always be making ground yet sometimes they were flinging it so wide and deep that they were already 20 metres back before they started making that ground. They made few clean line breaks - often they were beating a man to be hit by the covering defenders. The AB flat line does annoy me a lot yet it did yield a fair few clean breaks which could and maybe should have ended in tries.
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@bovidae said in AB's v Wales:
@tordah said in AB's v Wales:
I guess Havili and Scott Barrett come in, then?
Tamanivalu should be a straight swap for Ioane. I'd prefer Pat T to start ahead of Barrett.
Agree on Tamanivalu.
I’d prefer PT to come off the bench. The best rugby he’s ever played for the ABs has been in an impact role off the bench to close out games.
@act-crusader said in AB's v Wales:
I’d prefer PT to come off the bench. The best rugby he’s ever played for the ABs has been in an impact role off the bench to close out games.
I just worry about Barrett's lack of size against the larger NH packs. I agree, Tuipulotu is perfectly suited as an impact sub, as long as he gets more than 20 mins off the bench.
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I realise this is a tiny sample but here are the territoy and possession stats from the AB's last 4 tests.
Territory Possession
Scotland 34% 40%
France 46% 43%
Australia 43% 46%
SA 37% 36%Clearly we have some issues holding onto the ball in the right places. I can only assume its a tactic of the coaches to kick the ball back to the opposition and hope they make a mistake and score from broken play. Or perhaps teams who play the AB's do not want to kick the ball to our back 3 so they hold onto it for longer. Either way, I would have thought it would be easier to score points when you have the ball at the right end of the park.
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I think we need to take a look at the bench options. Although not in favour with things originally we need to look at it now.
Pat t and Akira off the bench for me with Aumua (I'm done with Harris) let's see what impact they bring.
In the backs we don't have much options. Maybe laumape is a difference maker, if alb ain't starting I'm not sure I see his value as impact.Starters predictable with Barrett in. As for wing I wld not put goodhue there, u20 is massive difference to tests!! Inclined to start Taminavalu.
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What were the possession and territory stats for the SA test at Albany?
Those stats can be misleading and not indicative of the final score.
@bovidae said in AB's v Wales:
What were the possession and territory stats for the SA test at Albany?
Those stats can be misleading and not indicative of the final score.
Looks like 52% Territory and 55% Possession to the AB's. No doubt what you do with it when you have it is more important that simply holding onto the ball. I guess I just get frustrated with unforced turnovers where a silly play/penalty gifts the ball back to the opposition.
I really think our set piece has saved us this year, the scrum and lineout overall have been excellent. Its our errors, poor kicking and just a lack of direction in general play that seems to be hurting us.
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@act-crusader said in AB's v Wales:
I’d prefer PT to come off the bench. The best rugby he’s ever played for the ABs has been in an impact role off the bench to close out games.
I just worry about Barrett's lack of size against the larger NH packs. I agree, Tuipulotu is perfectly suited as an impact sub, as long as he gets more than 20 mins off the bench.
@bovidae said in AB's v Wales:
@act-crusader said in AB's v Wales:
I’d prefer PT to come off the bench. The best rugby he’s ever played for the ABs has been in an impact role off the bench to close out games.
I just worry about Barrett's lack of size against the larger NH packs. I agree, Tuipulotu is perfectly suited as an impact sub, as long as he gets more than 20 mins off the bench.
I totally agree about Barrett (S). And still seems a bit odd that he was on bench for NZ XV but not in 23 for Scotland.
And also prefer Patty T for impact. But with BBBR and Romero out we need a power lock to start, and PT was excellent in that role for NZ XV, so give him a shot, I say. -
@billy-tell said in AB's v Wales:
@gunner said in AB's v Wales:
We’re in serious danger of losing this one.
Wales I’m not sure. If it was England or Ireland I’d have us as underdogs which is a bit sickening.
I'm not saying Wales are favourites, but they're as good a chance right now than they have been in a long while.
I'm always pretty confident that the ABs will win, but I just feel a bit uneasy about this one...
@gunner said in AB's v Wales:
@billy-tell said in AB's v Wales:
@gunner said in AB's v Wales:
We’re in serious danger of losing this one.
Wales I’m not sure. If it was England or Ireland I’d have us as underdogs which is a bit sickening.
I'm not saying Wales are favourites, but they're as good a chance right now than they have been in a long while.
I'm always pretty confident that the ABs will win, but I just feel a bit uneasy about this one...
True. If we click and NZ don't then we could sneak a win.
Conversely, if NZ click and we don't then it could be a 30-40 point drubbing like the bad old good old days.
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@gunner said in AB's v Wales:
@billy-tell said in AB's v Wales:
@gunner said in AB's v Wales:
We’re in serious danger of losing this one.
Wales I’m not sure. If it was England or Ireland I’d have us as underdogs which is a bit sickening.
I'm not saying Wales are favourites, but they're as good a chance right now than they have been in a long while.
I'm always pretty confident that the ABs will win, but I just feel a bit uneasy about this one...
True. If we click and NZ don't then we could sneak a win.
Conversely, if NZ click and we don't then it could be a 30-40 point drubbing like the bad old good old days.
@mikethesnow said in AB's v Wales:
@gunner said in AB's v Wales:
@billy-tell said in AB's v Wales:
@gunner said in AB's v Wales:
We’re in serious danger of losing this one.
Wales I’m not sure. If it was England or Ireland I’d have us as underdogs which is a bit sickening.
I'm not saying Wales are favourites, but they're as good a chance right now than they have been in a long while.
I'm always pretty confident that the ABs will win, but I just feel a bit uneasy about this one...
True. If we click and NZ don't then we could sneak a win.
Conversely, if NZ click and we don't then it could be a 30-40 point drubbing like the bad old good old days.
I actually think the ABs will click because of Gatland's comments this week!
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I'd really like to see Akira get some game-time in this one. Fifita and Squire are both flat track bullies, and are not the answer long term. Neither of them could put in a performance like Akira did for the Maori vs the Lions while the rest of the pack got their asses handed to them. I see him as our long term 6 following Kaino's retirement.
@no-quarter said in AB's v Wales:
I'd really like to see Akira get some game-time in this one. Fifita and Squire are both flat track bullies, and are not the answer long term. Neither of them could put in a performance like Akira did for the Maori vs the Lions while the rest of the pack got their asses handed to them. I see him as our long term 6 following Kaino's retirement.
I think this is nonsense.
I am not a long term Akira watcher, but went to the NZ Maori v French Barbarians game in Bordeaux, and was staggered by how much of the time Akira was walking around behind the play as a passenger. Was also in Rotorua so have some idea of the Akira upside.
Squire is streets ahead of Akira currently, and has the potential to be a great AB 6 IMHO.
Wouldn't want to quote the AB selectors in my defence, as we seem to disagree on other selections, but they seem to be with me on this one.
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@no-quarter said in AB's v Wales:
I'd really like to see Akira get some game-time in this one. Fifita and Squire are both flat track bullies, and are not the answer long term. Neither of them could put in a performance like Akira did for the Maori vs the Lions while the rest of the pack got their asses handed to them. I see him as our long term 6 following Kaino's retirement.
I think this is nonsense.
I am not a long term Akira watcher, but went to the NZ Maori v French Barbarians game in Bordeaux, and was staggered by how much of the time Akira was walking around behind the play as a passenger. Was also in Rotorua so have some idea of the Akira upside.
Squire is streets ahead of Akira currently, and has the potential to be a great AB 6 IMHO.
Wouldn't want to quote the AB selectors in my defence, as we seem to disagree on other selections, but they seem to be with me on this one.
@infidel said in AB's v Wales:
@no-quarter said in AB's v Wales:
I'd really like to see Akira get some game-time in this one. Fifita and Squire are both flat track bullies, and are not the answer long term. Neither of them could put in a performance like Akira did for the Maori vs the Lions while the rest of the pack got their asses handed to them. I see him as our long term 6 following Kaino's retirement.
I think this is nonsense.
I am not a long term Akira watcher, but went to the NZ Maori v French Barbarians game in Bordeaux, and was staggered by how much of the time Akira was walking around behind the play as a passenger. Was also in Rotorua so have some idea of the Akira upside.
Squire is streets ahead of Akira currently, and has the potential to be a great AB 6 IMHO.
Wouldn't want to quote the AB selectors in my defence, as we seem to disagree on other selections, but they seem to be with me on this one.
It must be remembered comparing Squire playing 6 vs Akira playing 8 isn't exactly the same thing.
Akira was playing 6 for the Maori (and for the Blues v Lions) as opposed to number 8 which is where he was playing in Bordeaux. Akira also came on at 6 for the ABs in Lyon and looked better than he did in Bordeaux. I can't remember the last time Squire played 8.
I think an argument can be made Akira is better suited to playing 6 at this point in his career than 8.
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Thanks for the clarifications here.
From what I saw in Bordeaux, I wouldn't be changing my opinion on Akira.
As you are saying Akira is better suited at 6, I would still say Squire is a mile ahead of Akira at 6 currently.
Not saying Akira can't make it as either 6 or 8, but my thinking is he needs to lift his workrate/attitude over current output. Would love to see him in the mix. It is possible Akira could be a better option at 8?
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@gunner said in AB's v Wales:
We’re in serious danger of losing this one.
Wales I’m not sure. If it was England or Ireland I’d have us as underdogs which is a bit sickening.
@billy-tell said in AB's v Wales:
@gunner said in AB's v Wales:
We’re in serious danger of losing this one.
Wales I’m not sure. If it was England or Ireland I’d have us as underdogs which is a bit sickening.
Ooh a second one! Keep ‘em coming.
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I've whacked $10 on Wales at $7.50. Seems a good bet given our form, injuries, and we often suck in the last game of the year
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I've whacked $10 on Wales at $7.50. Seems a good bet given our form, injuries, and we often suck in the last game of the year
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@mariner4life I'd do the same, except I never bet against the All Blacks.
@gunner me either, he's obviously lived in Aus too long!
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I've whacked $10 on Wales at $7.50. Seems a good bet given our form, injuries, and we often suck in the last game of the year
@mariner4life said in AB's v Wales:
I've whacked $10 on Wales at $7.50. Seems a good bet given our form, injuries, and we often suck in the last game of the year
Those look to be very good odds, bookies know something we don't obviously. Or perhaps we are just too harsh on our beloved team.
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I've whacked $10 on Wales at $7.50. Seems a good bet given our form, injuries, and we often suck in the last game of the year
@mariner4life thats a nice return but you won't see it. This is the statement game. Wales are going to get raped.
