Filling McCullums' Boots in ODIs
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<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="dogmeat" data-cid="558505" data-time="1455341064">
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Never forget too he was responsible for one of the most venal acts by a black cap ever so he's not always been whiter than white.</p>
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<p>What was that DM? Genuinely curious</p> -
<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="hydro11" data-cid="558536" data-time="1455360331"><p>
<a class="bbc_url" href="http://stats.espncricinfo.com/ci/engine/stats/index.html?captain_involve=10384;class=11;filter=advanced;orderby=start;page=2;team=5;template=results;type=team;view=results">http://stats.espncricinfo.com/ci/engine/stats/index.html?captain_involve=10384;class=11;filter=advanced;orderby=start;page=2;team=5;template=results;type=team;view=results</a><br><br>
McCullum has only won 6 of his last 19 tosses. That has just 8% cumulative probability. McCullum also lost 7 tosses in a row in 2014 but then won the next 8 in a row.<br><br>
Since 1 Jan 2014 McCullum has won 14 of his 42 tosses at home. This has a cumulative probability of just 2.1%. Over the same period he had 16 tosses away from home and won 10 of them. This has a cumulative probability of 90%.<br><br>
The idea that McCullum is exceptionally bad at tosses is just recency bias, conformation bias and because we don't watch away games as much. He is just sort of bad at tosses. Regardless, tosses don't make much difference to results. The Basin Reserve is actually one of the few grounds where you really want to win the toss.</p></blockquote>
So recent perception is actually correct then....despite overall it being an anomoly. -
<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="Siam" data-cid="558545" data-time="1455375799"><p>
What was that DM? Genuinely curious</p></blockquote>
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I imagine he's referring to Baz running out Murali when he left his crease prematurely to congratulate Sangakkara on a century.
