Rough tips and other bets...
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I have watched a lot of racing over the past 6 months, especially the racing channel here, and i have learned that
most of the "analysts" and tipsters can tell you a good story, showing you the last run, and the trial, and a head to head race this prep, something that would have taken a couple of hours for just a single race but
in the end, they usually pick the favourite, and for all their certainty, they don't get it right any more often than me, with a 5 minute read as the horses get to the mounting yard.
I'm sure they put a shit load of work in, because there is a fuck-ton or racing in this country, but if you just followed them you would go broke.
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I have watched a lot of racing over the past 6 months, especially the racing channel here, and i have learned that
most of the "analysts" and tipsters can tell you a good story, showing you the last run, and the trial, and a head to head race this prep, something that would have taken a couple of hours for just a single race but
in the end, they usually pick the favourite, and for all their certainty, they don't get it right any more often than me, with a 5 minute read as the horses get to the mounting yard.
I'm sure they put a shit load of work in, because there is a fuck-ton or racing in this country, but if you just followed them you would go broke.
@mariner4life My eyes (and ears) glaze over when they give their selections. I learned that from childhood.
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@mariner4life My eyes (and ears) glaze over when they give their selections. I learned that from childhood.
@Salacious-Crumb said in Rough tips and other bets...:
@mariner4life My eyes (and ears) glaze over when they give their tips. I learned that from childhood.
i am not saying i am good at this either, quite the opposite. I am what would be called a punting nuffie. I bet small. I don't do exotics. I back roughies almost as a rule (while pompously calling it "searching for value"). The vast majority of it is gut feel over any sort of reason (but i convince myself it's done on analysis, with 2nd up form, and wins on the track etc). And i play to prove analysts wrong.
But i haven't topped up an account in 7 months, in fact i have withdrawn while still keeping a decent balance. As my Saturday arvo hobby (and sunday arvo. and friday nights at the Valley) it is working out pretty fucking cheap.
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I have watched a lot of racing over the past 6 months, especially the racing channel here, and i have learned that
most of the "analysts" and tipsters can tell you a good story, showing you the last run, and the trial, and a head to head race this prep, something that would have taken a couple of hours for just a single race but
in the end, they usually pick the favourite, and for all their certainty, they don't get it right any more often than me, with a 5 minute read as the horses get to the mounting yard.
I'm sure they put a shit load of work in, because there is a fuck-ton or racing in this country, but if you just followed them you would go broke.
@mariner4life Although I would say the one analyst I will listen to is the one in post-parade giving condition reports of the horse right up to race, usually a female analyst I would say. This is usually a concern for me, because I like to play the Pick3-to-Pick6’s, which means my wagers are placed Sometimes hours prior to race time, and when they start reporting about my selection in a heavy lather I start sweating myself. Usually those analysts — the condition handicappers — know what they’re talking about. So if I had a recommendation where you’re going to make a play on a single race right up to the close of betting, I’d listen to the analyst and make a strong play against a favourite if the condition isn’t good. And that’s where the money’s made — betting against vulnerable favourites.
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I do my own form but then supplement with mounting yard reports where available (follow mounting yard live on FB for live updates at sydney meets - not likely to have any for a while though). Not really a fan though of some commentators pick of the yard, but helpful when they call out that a runner I like is behaving like a porkchop in the yard or got a sweat on etc, but hey some horses are just like that and will still run well (avantage etc)
I tend not to back a lot of roughies unless something really stands out. Default for me is to more often start at fav and try workout if it can be beat and where the value outside of it is.
I love horses that are fit, especially on heavier tracks or when they are front runners and back in distance (plus blinkers.....magic!). Also love those with good freshup form. It's funny the things we look out for and all of us will be different. There are certain jocker/trainer combos too I will always back, particularly when they dont have many races on the card.
I also have some very good mail sources and know which ones to trust and which stable chat to take with a great of salt. Have a few friends who are stable hands, strappers, trainers etc which really help.
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It's funny when you stumble across rules that are temporary
like in Spring it was "mares in form" doesn't matter where they are winning, if they are winning, get on
this time last year it was "if there are two godolphin horses in the race, back the one paying about $10"
both worked out handsomely for about a month
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It's funny when you stumble across rules that are temporary
like in Spring it was "mares in form" doesn't matter where they are winning, if they are winning, get on
this time last year it was "if there are two godolphin horses in the race, back the one paying about $10"
both worked out handsomely for about a month
@mariner4life “Angles.”
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I do recall the Daily Racing Form in the States looking at a hot “secret angle” from an old-time New York bettor years ago about throwing money at any horse who’d done a workout of at least a mile within a half-week before a race, regardless whether the coming race was a sprint or a route. Now, they conceeded it was a very small sample size conducted over 15 years, because that training strategy seldom ever happens, but the DRF was a little bit astounded to discover In their investigation that the “secret angle” (I think they even had a name for it) had a fairly high winning percentage, over 70% and maybe even in the high 70s, and included some nice longshots that paid handsomely. I look for the angle bc I’d love to play it in a multi-race, but I never see it. Nobody works out their horses a mile a couple days before a big race on dirt. And yet when I saw the results of that angle, it only made me curious why more U.S. trainers weren’t doing it.
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@Salacious-Crumb said in Rough tips and other bets...:
@mariner4life My eyes (and ears) glaze over when they give their tips. I learned that from childhood.
i am not saying i am good at this either, quite the opposite. I am what would be called a punting nuffie. I bet small. I don't do exotics. I back roughies almost as a rule (while pompously calling it "searching for value"). The vast majority of it is gut feel over any sort of reason (but i convince myself it's done on analysis, with 2nd up form, and wins on the track etc). And i play to prove analysts wrong.
But i haven't topped up an account in 7 months, in fact i have withdrawn while still keeping a decent balance. As my Saturday arvo hobby (and sunday arvo. and friday nights at the Valley) it is working out pretty fucking cheap.
@mariner4life said in Rough tips and other bets...:
@Salacious-Crumb said in Rough tips and other bets...:
@mariner4life My eyes (and ears) glaze over when they give their tips. I learned that from childhood.
i am not saying i am good at this either,
I wouldn’t say that either, I lose more than I win. But I grew up at my granddad’s knee thumbing his copy of Best Bets like it was a puzzle book (I think there were three different digest-sized race-field books published every week when I was a kid, and he bought ‘em all) as well as the Friday racing supplement in the Herald. I devoured that stuff when I was a kid, it was perfectly normal, the way kids play computer games nowadays. And of course, as a kid with an over-inflated ego, I was pretty sure all the guests on Glyn Tucker’s show told great stories but didn’t know jack about picking winners.
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Geee dont want to sound full of myself but I am waaaay up in terms of profitability and return from this 'game'. If I was making losses, while I'm sure I would still enjoy the thrill of trying to beat the bookie/other punters (as I get almost as much joy picking a winner or value place runner without placing a bet), I am sure it would be frowned upon at home for the amount of time that I put in.
Even now with good $ returns I do get a bit of pressure at home re the time I spend doing analysis but its probably more on the social side that pisses the wife off. If we are out on a sat arvo or evening she hates that I have to look at the phone for a race (cant handle just looking at results) or when a friend of ours asks if I am on the punt or backed any winners today (without me having the phone out).
Its the regular withdrawals and wifes knowledge that the horse/sport punt (or investment as I call it) has actually allowed us to purchase or do things that we may not have been otherwise able to do, that makes is relatively easy to justify my time.
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Geee dont want to sound full of myself but I am waaaay up in terms of profitability and return from this 'game'. If I was making losses, while I'm sure I would still enjoy the thrill of trying to beat the bookie/other punters (as I get almost as much joy picking a winner or value place runner without placing a bet), I am sure it would be frowned upon at home for the amount of time that I put in.
Even now with good $ returns I do get a bit of pressure at home re the time I spend doing analysis but its probably more on the social side that pisses the wife off. If we are out on a sat arvo or evening she hates that I have to look at the phone for a race (cant handle just looking at results) or when a friend of ours asks if I am on the punt or backed any winners today (without me having the phone out).
Its the regular withdrawals and wifes knowledge that the horse/sport punt (or investment as I call it) has actually allowed us to purchase or do things that we may not have been otherwise able to do, that makes is relatively easy to justify my time.
@JK i know you are way bigger in to this than me.
If i was putitng money in very month i reckon the wife would be having words. I bought her a fucking ace christmas gift from gambling winnings (actually @Smudge that was down to you mainly that particular one) so she can see the upside.
but i spend little time except for the actual time in front of the races. Quick squiz at the racing pull-out Friday morning, then not much else.
I have been looked at sideways when we have been out and i have pulled up a G1 to watch...
I kicked home Tagaloa in the Blue Diamond in an Uber with her parents on the way to a wedding. That was funny "are you serious...?"
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As someone who provides racing tips for a living (well at least a sideline gig), I know how much time many tipsters put into their selection. In my case, it's not long... but I'm sure there are others who have more time to commit to it.
But as I'm dealing with the same bunch of horses each week, I get to know their formlines pretty well. Best way to find random winners at nice odds in harness at least is to watch the workouts & trials videos and look for those horses having a quiet run at the back and either finding the line well late or never being pulled out by the driver.
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I do my own form but then supplement with mounting yard reports where available (follow mounting yard live on FB for live updates at sydney meets - not likely to have any for a while though). Not really a fan though of some commentators pick of the yard, but helpful when they call out that a runner I like is behaving like a porkchop in the yard or got a sweat on etc, but hey some horses are just like that and will still run well (avantage etc)
I tend not to back a lot of roughies unless something really stands out. Default for me is to more often start at fav and try workout if it can be beat and where the value outside of it is.
I love horses that are fit, especially on heavier tracks or when they are front runners and back in distance (plus blinkers.....magic!). Also love those with good freshup form. It's funny the things we look out for and all of us will be different. There are certain jocker/trainer combos too I will always back, particularly when they dont have many races on the card.
I also have some very good mail sources and know which ones to trust and which stable chat to take with a great of salt. Have a few friends who are stable hands, strappers, trainers etc which really help.
@JK said in [Rough tips and other bets...](/post/428615
I love horses that are fit, especially on heavier tracks or when they are front runners and back in distance (plus blinkers.....magic!)
Larimer street just then at MV was perfect example. Not a heavy track but a track that favours front runners and we had a fit horse back in distance with blinkers on. Too strong!
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The one fucking time I don't bet on Loving Gaby...
Scales of Justice was done in the first 100m. Fucking Moonee Valley
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GO POLLY GREY!!!
Her biggest race yet. Group 2 Japan Trophy. Fingers crossed.
We one this with Villifye a few years ago.
@Hooroo said in Rough tips and other bets...:
GO POLLY GREY!!!
Her biggest race yet. Group 2 Japan Trophy. Fingers crossed.
We one this with Villifye a few years ago.
I'm on!
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@Hooroo said in Rough tips and other bets...:
GO POLLY GREY!!!
Her biggest race yet. Group 2 Japan Trophy. Fingers crossed.
We one this with Villifye a few years ago.
I'm on!
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Me today
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@Smudge said in Rough tips and other bets...:
Oneloveonelife debuting on Saturday for the other syndicate I'm involved with.
Tough ask for him as he's straight into a Group 3 race at Wyndham (R7) and up against some tidy Canterbury types (he's trained in Southland). Best case scenario would be for him to sneak into a placing after being saved for one run. He's at 21s and 3.30 which is entirely fair.
Saved for one run, but they walked up front so he struggled to make any ground in the straight. Wasn't disgraced on debut though, so that's fine.
@Smudge said in Rough tips and other bets...:
@Smudge said in Rough tips and other bets...:
Oneloveonelife debuting on Saturday for the other syndicate I'm involved with.
Tough ask for him as he's straight into a Group 3 race at Wyndham (R7) and up against some tidy Canterbury types (he's trained in Southland). Best case scenario would be for him to sneak into a placing after being saved for one run. He's at 21s and 3.30 which is entirely fair.
Saved for one run, but they walked up front so he struggled to make any ground in the straight. Wasn't disgraced on debut though, so that's fine.
Bit more disappointing today. Found the trail thanks to some gate speed. Gait looked a little sloppy on the turn but looked to kick 150m out before just stopping and fading to 6th of 6. I suspect we'll have to wait for a few months to see him at the races again (probably as a 3YO).
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GO POLLY GREY!!!
Her biggest race yet. Group 2 Japan Trophy. Fingers crossed.
We one this with Villifye a few years ago.
