Rough tips and other bets...
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Watching that replay i've changed my mind about the whole race
I was furious at Lane for where he took VE but holy shit, it was probably the right move. Blew past everyone, but that sharp bend and Mounga being determined to be wide all day pushed him well wide. And there was absolutely no reason for that gap the winners took to appear either. Dalasan goes towards the rail for some fucking reason, the other 2 front runners shifted out, and bang, a gap appears, and the 1 and 2 pour through. I have watched a lot of Valley racing and seen more than 1 good horse just get stuck in the straight behind tiring leaders before running out of room.
Hot take: If they don't run the Manikato meet the night before at the Valley, thus fucking the rail, VE wins a CP.
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Watching that replay i've changed my mind about the whole race
I was furious at Lane for where he took VE but holy shit, it was probably the right move. Blew past everyone, but that sharp bend and Mounga being determined to be wide all day pushed him well wide. And there was absolutely no reason for that gap the winners took to appear either. Dalasan goes towards the rail for some fucking reason, the other 2 front runners shifted out, and bang, a gap appears, and the 1 and 2 pour through. I have watched a lot of Valley racing and seen more than 1 good horse just get stuck in the straight behind tiring leaders before running out of room.
Hot take: If they don't run the Manikato meet the night before at the Valley, thus fucking the rail, VE wins a CP.
@mariner4life said in Rough tips and other bets...:
And there was absolutely no reason for that gap the winners took to appear either. Dalasan goes towards the rail for some fucking reason, the other 2 front runners shifted out, and bang, a gap appears, and the 1 and 2 pour through. I have watched a lot of Valley racing and seen more than 1 good horse just get stuck in the straight behind tiring leaders before running out of room.
Too right. watching live i said holyfuckinbatshit, parted like the Red Sea. I couldn’t believe it, on a short straight yet. what a gift.
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James isn’t just a rider; he’s also a writer.
“I don’t even get to touch them. They fall apart before I get to them.”
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Could J-Mac reunite with Verry Elleegant in Melbourne Cup?
https://www.racenet.com.au/news/melbourne-cup-damian-lane-confirmed-to-ride-the-chosen-one-20211029
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Haven’t tipped out a horse in a while but I think our Sussex is a cracking chance today. Race 2, Tauranga
@hooroo said in Rough tips and other bets...:
Haven’t tipped out a horse in a while but I think our Sussex is a cracking chance today. Race 2, Tauranga
Mortgage. On.
No pressure
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Melbourne Cup in 24 hours.
I’ve done pretty well the past couple Cups, hitting nice exactas and tri’s, but I reckon this year there’s fuckall value so only going to play the race as the first leg in the late quaddie.
Selections.
2 INCENTIVISE going at shortest odds since Phar Lap. Don’t know if he can go the distance, but form and race record says everything. The hype says he can’t lose.
3 SPANISH MISSION (USA) has been dueling with Strativarius in marathons. After what happened in the Cox you’d be a fool to pass on anything top-drawer coming from UK. Serious threat.
Those are clear standouts.
After that I have to throw in…3 VERRY ELLEGEENT (NZ) my sentimental fave, but it’s a long race, she’s a small horse, and she’s carrying a lot of weight. Doubt she can do it, but it’s Jmac-Waller, I can’t leave off my ticket.
12 PERSAN loves the course, peaking at the right time, and a 5yo gelding which is an angle I always use when I’m lazy.
Gotta throw in one more roughie, and a Kiwi at that, so looking to
21 TRALEE ROSE (NZ) for some value.
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Melbourne Cup in 24 hours.
I’ve done pretty well the past couple Cups, hitting nice exactas and tri’s, but I reckon this year there’s fuckall value so only going to play the race as the first leg in the late quaddie.
Selections.
2 INCENTIVISE going at shortest odds since Phar Lap. Don’t know if he can go the distance, but form and race record says everything. The hype says he can’t lose.
3 SPANISH MISSION (USA) has been dueling with Strativarius in marathons. After what happened in the Cox you’d be a fool to pass on anything top-drawer coming from UK. Serious threat.
Those are clear standouts.
After that I have to throw in…3 VERRY ELLEGEENT (NZ) my sentimental fave, but it’s a long race, she’s a small horse, and she’s carrying a lot of weight. Doubt she can do it, but it’s Jmac-Waller, I can’t leave off my ticket.
12 PERSAN loves the course, peaking at the right time, and a 5yo gelding which is an angle I always use when I’m lazy.
Gotta throw in one more roughie, and a Kiwi at that, so looking to
21 TRALEE ROSE (NZ) for some value.
@kid-chocolate said in Rough tips and other bets...:
Melbourne Cup in 24 hours.
I’ve done pretty well the past couple Cups, hitting nice exactas and tri’s, but I reckon this year there’s fuckall value so only going to play the race as the first leg in the late quaddie.
Selections.
- INCENTIVISE going at shortest odds since Phar Lap. Don’t know if he can go the distance, but form and race record says everything. The hype says he can’t lose.
the weight he copped for the Caufield Cup run says he can lose, but sh*t that was a good run
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@kid-chocolate said in Rough tips and other bets...:
Melbourne Cup in 24 hours.
I’ve done pretty well the past couple Cups, hitting nice exactas and tri’s, but I reckon this year there’s fuckall value so only going to play the race as the first leg in the late quaddie.
Selections.
- INCENTIVISE going at shortest odds since Phar Lap. Don’t know if he can go the distance, but form and race record says everything. The hype says he can’t lose.
the weight he copped for the Caufield Cup run says he can lose, but sh*t that was a good run
@bayimports said in Rough tips and other bets...:
@kid-chocolate said in Rough tips and other bets...:
Melbourne Cup in 24 hours.
I’ve done pretty well the past couple Cups, hitting nice exactas and tri’s, but I reckon this year there’s fuckall value so only going to play the race as the first leg in the late quaddie.
Selections.
- INCENTIVISE going at shortest odds since Phar Lap. Don’t know if he can go the distance, but form and race record says everything. The hype says he can’t lose.
the weight he copped for the Caufield Cup run says he can lose, but sh*t that was a good run
and a terrible ride!!!
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Still looking for upsetters, I’m going to throw in a couple more 5yo geldings 16 GRAND PROMENADE and 22 FLOATING ARTIST, both should stay the trip at very low weights, peaking condition, and the latter has Ted Nugent in the saddle.
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I almost never follow the hype - but, today I'm going to. Because my TAB account is in a bad way. (I really should stick to sports betting and leave horses well alone).
I am assured by Jimmy Cassidy that Incentivise is going to shit in.
...and a little place bet on Tralee Rose just in case Jimmy is horribly wrong.
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I’m getting a last minute feeling last years’ winner and topweight Irish import 1 TWILIGHT PAYMENT might repeat. I’m adding to all my tickets as an insurance policy!!
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She uckin’ killed ‘em. What a finish.
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OMG!!! Amazing. J-Mac (NZ) Chris Waller (NZ) VERRY ELLEEGANT (NZ)
@kid-chocolate Sentiment sometimes gets there!
My TAB account gets sicker!
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My fave jockey, fave trainer, fave horse. Just won the Melbourne Cup. I can’t believe it. Pinch me. And I just hit the tri, the superfecta, and I’m alive deep in the quaddie. Pinch me!
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Up until Friday nobody knew VE was even going to start in the Cup. McDonald has just lost his ride, and I don’t recall Waller ever mentioning at any time this year that she was targeting the Melbourne Cup. Really seemed like an afterthought. Small horse, big weight, and she exploded on them. She could have gone another 400m and drawn more daylight.
Three days ago!!!
I’m looking forward to comments, but if I had to guess, if JMac doesn’t get scratched off that import Away He Goes early in the week, and J-Mac doesn’t ride that morning workout, then I’m guessing Waller doesn’t even enter VE in the race. James must’ve sold him.
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Up until Friday nobody knew VE was even going to start in the Cup. McDonald has just lost his ride, and I don’t recall Waller ever mentioning at any time this year that she was targeting the Melbourne Cup. Really seemed like an afterthought. Small horse, big weight, and she exploded on them. She could have gone another 400m and drawn more daylight.
Three days ago!!!
I’m looking forward to comments, but if I had to guess, if JMac doesn’t get scratched off that import Away He Goes early in the week, and J-Mac doesn’t ride that morning workout, then I’m guessing Waller doesn’t even enter VE in the race. James must’ve sold him.
@kid-chocolate nice work, Im looking at my cox plate bet and thinking damn right horse wrong day, double loss lol
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Up until Friday nobody knew VE was even going to start in the Cup. McDonald has just lost his ride, and I don’t recall Waller ever mentioning at any time this year that she was targeting the Melbourne Cup. Really seemed like an afterthought. Small horse, big weight, and she exploded on them. She could have gone another 400m and drawn more daylight.
Three days ago!!!
I’m looking forward to comments, but if I had to guess, if JMac doesn’t get scratched off that import Away He Goes early in the week, and J-Mac doesn’t ride that morning workout, then I’m guessing Waller doesn’t even enter VE in the race. James must’ve sold him.
@kid-chocolate To be honest, I just looked at the weight she had to carry and discounted her.
When Incentivise hit the front, I was just congratulating myself on backing the sure thing, when she sprinted past and no-one even looked like catching her.
