Rough tips and other bets...
-
so where is the smart money or the lucky money going tomorrow?
-
so where is the smart money or the lucky money going tomorrow?
@taniwharugby Smart money is on Almandin and Humidor. Wouldn't surprise me to see Almandin win it again.
-
Going with these in first 4
1st
Tiberian
Red Cardinal2nd
Marmelo
Johannes Vermeer
Wall of Fire
Rekindling
Thomas Hobson
Tiberian
Red Cardinal3rd
Max Dyanmite
Alamandin
Big Duke
Amelie's Star
Marmelo
Johannes Vermeer
Wall of Fire
Rekindling
Thomas Hobson
Tiberian
Red Cardinal4th
Humidor
Boom Time
Nakeeta
Tiberian
Red Cardinal
Marmelo
Max Dynamite
Wall of Fire
Rekindling
Thomas Hobson
Johannes Vermeer
Alamandin
Big Duke
Amelie's Star
Ventura Storm
LibranWill try and weed a couple of these out before tomorrow to get the % up.
-
Can’t back humidor at this distance personally. Think has peaked and been backed in to under the odds
Marmelo, Tiberian, red cardinal (even from the Car park). Rekindling worth considering too
Will have a shot at tri to
Marmelo 1st
Then box up tiberian, red cardinal, rekindling, big duke, almandin
A bit of Money coming in overnight for max dynamite
-
@taniwharugby Smart money is on Almandin and Humidor. Wouldn't surprise me to see Almandin win it again.
@sneakdefreak said in Rough tips and other bets...:
@taniwharugby Smart money is on Almandin and Humidor. Wouldn't surprise me to see Almandin win it again.
I will be a little surprised if Humidor goes the trip. I know he was awesome in Cox Plate but I don't know of 2 mile
-
The Melbourne Cup is such a horrible punting race. I only have one rule, which has served me well over the years: never back a horse that has never run in Australia before.
Which rules out the likes of Red Cardinal and Rekindling, though I will be including them in multiples.
I like Marmelo. Good European form, definitely gets the distance, and a nice lead-up run in the Caulfield Cup. Drawn well with a good jockey aboard. Reckon it wins from Johannes Vermeer and Wall of Fire.
-
The Melbourne Cup is such a horrible punting race. I only have one rule, which has served me well over the years: never back a horse that has never run in Australia before.
Which rules out the likes of Red Cardinal and Rekindling, though I will be including them in multiples.
I like Marmelo. Good European form, definitely gets the distance, and a nice lead-up run in the Caulfield Cup. Drawn well with a good jockey aboard. Reckon it wins from Johannes Vermeer and Wall of Fire.
@barbarian said in Rough tips and other bets...:
The Melbourne Cup is such a horrible punting race. I only have one rule, which has served me well over the years: never back a horse that has never run in Australia before.
Which rules out the likes of Red Cardinal and Rekindling, though I will be including them in multiples.
I like Marmelo. Good European form, definitely gets the distance, and a nice lead-up run in the Caulfield Cup. Drawn well with a good jockey aboard. Reckon it wins from Johannes Vermeer and Wall of Fire.
Red Cardinbal has run in Australia hasn't it? Wasn't he in last years cup?
-
Yeah. Small mishap this morning and we had to get vet cert. He will be fine but not for today
-
@barbarian said in Rough tips and other bets...:
The Melbourne Cup is such a horrible punting race. I only have one rule, which has served me well over the years: never back a horse that has never run in Australia before.
Which rules out the likes of Red Cardinal and Rekindling, though I will be including them in multiples.
I like Marmelo. Good European form, definitely gets the distance, and a nice lead-up run in the Caulfield Cup. Drawn well with a good jockey aboard. Reckon it wins from Johannes Vermeer and Wall of Fire.
Red Cardinbal has run in Australia hasn't it? Wasn't he in last years cup?
-
@hooroo said in Rough tips and other bets...:
Red Cardinbal has run in Australia hasn't it? Wasn't he in last years cup?
No he's never run in Oz.
@barbarian said in Rough tips and other bets...:
@hooroo said in Rough tips and other bets...:
Red Cardinbal has run in Australia hasn't it? Wasn't he in last years cup?
No he's never run in Oz.
yeah just looked and confirmed he hasn't. First first (and 2nd) up record is very good though. Also unbeaten at this distance
-
@barbarian said in Rough tips and other bets...:
@hooroo said in Rough tips and other bets...:
Red Cardinbal has run in Australia hasn't it? Wasn't he in last years cup?
No he's never run in Oz.
yeah just looked and confirmed he hasn't. First first (and 2nd) up record is very good though. Also unbeaten at this distance
@jk said in Rough tips and other bets...:
yeah just looked and confirmed he hasn't. First first (and 2nd) up record is very good though. Also unbeaten at this distance
He could be amazing, and win the thing by 6 lengths. But the fact is that no horse has ever won the Melbourne Cup without a run in Australia beforehand. Now obviously that streak will probably end soon, but I steer clear because history suggests you just don't know how well a horse will respond to Aussie conditions.
And it's worth noting more than a few horses have run 2nd and 3rd in their first Aussie run, so my rule doesn't exclude them from trifectas etc.
-
@jk said in Rough tips and other bets...:
yeah just looked and confirmed he hasn't. First first (and 2nd) up record is very good though. Also unbeaten at this distance
He could be amazing, and win the thing by 6 lengths. But the fact is that no horse has ever won the Melbourne Cup without a run in Australia beforehand. Now obviously that streak will probably end soon, but I steer clear because history suggests you just don't know how well a horse will respond to Aussie conditions.
And it's worth noting more than a few horses have run 2nd and 3rd in their first Aussie run, so my rule doesn't exclude them from trifectas etc.
@barbarian said in Rough tips and other bets...:
He could be amazing, and win the thing by 6 lengths. But the fact is that no horse has ever won the Melbourne Cup without a run in Australia beforehand. Now obviously that streak will probably end soon, but I steer clear because history suggests you just don't know how well a horse will respond to Aussie conditions.
Well... records are made to be broken, I suppose. Rekindling had a beautiful run, was the winner about 300 out.
Marmelo just took off way too early, think it probably settled a bit too far forward.
