Super Rugby 2024

[Tim]

Lets look at the bottom half of the table.

The run home:

Rebels

Chiefs (H), Brumbies (A), Drua (A)
Prediction: L, L, L, and one bonus point - 26 pts

Highlanders

Blues (A), Drua (H), Hurricanes (A)
Prediction: L, W, L, and one bonus point - 28 pts

Drua

Reds (H), Highlanders (A), Rebels (H)
Prediction: L, L, W, and one bonus point - 22 pts

Force

Waratahs (H), Reds (A), Brumbies (H) - do the Brumbies rest players in the final round?
Prediction: W, L, L - 19 pts

Moana Pasifika

Hurricanes (A), Waratahs (H), Crusaders (A)
Prediction: L, W, L - 18 pts

Crusaders

Brumbies (A), Blues (H), MP (H)
Prediction: L, L, W, and one bonus point - 19 pts

Waratahs

Force (A), MP (A), Reds (H)
Prediction: L, L, L, and two bonus points - 14 pts

Force vs. Brumbies, Crusaders vs. MP, and Drua vs. Rebels all important games in the final round.

Predicted cut-off for quarter-finals: 22 points

Final predicted standings:

6. Highlanders - 28
7. Rebels - 26
8. Drua - 22
9. Crusaders - 19
10. Force - 19
11. Moana Pasifika - 18
12. Waratahs - 14

[Duluth]

@Tim

On form that looks about right

Drua v Reds this weekend is an interesting one. An afternoon game in Fiji, they have a good shot.

That could mean 6th, 7th & 8th are very close on points at the end

[Duluth]

Hayden Meikle of the ODT did a similar prediction to @Tim

It's paywalled.. I think the main difference was that Drua v Reds on Saturday. Here's his guess:

Highlanders 28
Drua 27
Rebels 27
Crusaders 20
Force 19
Moana Pasifika 18
Waratahs 15

[Kiwiwomble]

i said pre season that 6th would be a success....i had forgotten how poor you can be and still get 6th :cat_face_with_tears_of_joy:

[mikedogz]

[gt12]

There will be plenty of alignment between the Drua and Fiji national team then.

[Bovidae]

[Tim]

With just the one loss to their name in 2024, the Aucklanders have not just proved their attacking flair can score with the best of the rest, but their defence is on track to be the second most suffocating in Super Rugby history – among eventual champions.

The 2008 Crusaders hold the top spot on that list, having allowed just 14 points per game during their season.

The 2024 Blues have an average of 15.5 points conceded throughout the 13 rounds of action so far. The team travel to Christchurch to play the Crusaders and host the Chiefs at Eden Park to round out the regular season.

https://www.rugbypass.com/news/defence-wins-championships-blues-on-the-brink-of-historic-feat/

[Mr Fish]

That early loss to the Hurricanes has probably helped keep a lot of the pressure off this year. They're not chasing a perfect season or anything like that, they're just going about their business without too much fuss and fairly comfortably dismantling everyone in their way. Of course, the outlook will be markedly different if they drop their last two games (unlikely but certainly not impossible).

[Tim]

TAB odds for making the playoffs:

Highlanders
1.20

Rebels
1.30

Fijian Drua
1.60

Western Force
2.00

Moana Pasifika
3.00

Crusaders
8.00

Waratahs
21.00

[mariner4life]

a short season and bloated play offs makes some of the "finalists" laughable. The Tah's are 2-10 but still a mathematical chance.

Comp is no more top heavy than any other code, clear top 4 then a gap. Imagine a top 6 finals? Last 2 weeks will be epic, with even the Reds joining the Landers, Rebels and Drua battling for 2 spots.
Yes fans in Christchurch, Perth, South Auckland (or wherever) and Sydney will have already clocked off. But that's what you get for a combined 11-37

[Kiwiwomble]

have done absolutely no research on this.....so read this with that in mind

is the 4 try bonus point a bit of a problem, you get extra reward for thrashings....and nothing for ding dong tight clashes, when you have such disparity between the top and bottom of the ladder you're going to have some thrashings and that allows the team at the top to get clear...and so the powers that be have this 8 team play offs to give some of the bottom teams a slim chance to play another week

i wonder what would happen without that bonus point, would the table contract a bit and so we might have more movement in the middle, more teams might be mathematical chances of making the top 6 and we could have a more meaningful playoff series

[Bovidae]

@Kiwiwomble You need to score 3 more tries than the opposition to get a try BP.

[Machpants]

@Tim said in Super Rugby 2024:

TAB odds for making the playoffs:

Waratahs
21.00

Pretty good odds, considering it is a mathematical impossibility

[Kiwiwomble]

@Bovidae you know what i mean, there are only two types of bonus point and im obviously not talking about the loosing by 7 or less

[mariner4life]

@Kiwiwomble quick squiz at the table and it does fuck all.

[Kiwiwomble]

@mariner4life ok, flag that then

[Kiwiwomble]

how do we think competitions that dont have playoff keep teams and fan engaged? like a straight up league....finish top of the table and win, most teams know they have no chance pretty quick but they keep going purely to finish as high as possible

[Machpants]

@Kiwiwomble said in Super Rugby 2024:

how do we think competitions that dont have playoff keep teams and fan engaged? like a straight up league....finish top of the table and win, most teams know they have no chance pretty quick but they keep going purely to finish as high as possible

By being part of the cultures, and years of tradition. Soccer in the UK, fit example, is like rugby used to be here. Admittedly playing numbers aren't huge, but it is still a big thing. During the WC the country goes nuts. And people support the club's their great grandfather did etc. Super rugby hasn't got that

[Kiwiwomble]

@Machpants thats what i was thinking but kind of hoped id missed something, would have hoped after the better part of 30 years we might have got super rugby some of that history....but i kind of feel its LESS of a thing than in the late 90's early 2000's