Super Rugby 2025

sparky

I'm enjoying Super Rugby a lot this year. The games are pacy, fun and the gap in standard between the sides is a lot closer than I can ever remember. There have been lots of games where the result goes down to the wire. There are also lots of fantastic young players coming through. Well done to everyone concerned with a great product in 2025.

But we need to be wary of the difference to how international Rugby will be officiated once the Tests arrive.

In Super Rugby, if Refs think it is a try they will give it. At international level, if there is any reasonable doubt at all they will send it to the TMOs to check.

There are tries being given in Super Rugby that would be scrubbed off at International Level because of all the checks that take place after a potential score.

Because of these breaks, the pace of international Rugby is slower. So there will be some superb Super Rugby players who won't be as well suited to the attritional grind of contemporary Test Rugby.

sparky

The Super Rugby table after Round 5.

I think the Chiefs are best and the Crusaders probably second best, but not much between the other sides.

sparky

My guess at the eventual Top 6 is:

Chiefs
Crusaders
Brumbies
Reds
Hurricanes
Highlanders

Bones

@sparky said in Super Rugby 2025:

I think the Chiefs are best and the Crusaders probably second best, but not much between the other sides.

After seeing boo's stupid shit post, this made me think.

Is sparky an AI bot?

sparky

@Bones I'm tempted to feed all my posts into a AI app then to let it post on my behalf. The results would be interesting.

Bones

@sparky said in Super Rugby 2025:

The results would be interesting.

Awww bro don't talk yourself down like that.

Mr Fish

I expect the Hurricanes/Highlanders rematch in May will decode the final make-up of the top six.

I imagine Chiefs, Crusaders, Reds, Brumbies, Blue will take the top five (more or less in the order).

Canes4life

@sparky said in Super Rugby 2025:

The Super Rugby table after Round 5.

I think the Chiefs are best and the Crusaders probably second best, but not much between the other sides.

It's hard to know where the Crusaders are, they've had two big wins the last two weeks but they've played two weakened Aussie sides at home and have leaked a fair few points. Good thing for them is they are piling on the points.

For me the Chiefs are clearly the best side atm, followed probably by the Reds when they have their full strength side on the park.

Canes4life

@Mr-Fish said in Super Rugby 2025:

I expect the Hurricanes/Highlanders rematch in May will decode the final make-up of the top six.

I imagine Chiefs, Crusaders, Reds, Brumbies, Blue will take the top five (more or less in the order).

The Blues have to win one of their home games against either the Crusaders and Canes coming up. Canes likely to be near full strength for that match with a number of players coming back after the bye so that should be close.

Lose both and they will struggle to make the top 6, especially considering they will have to beat the Saders down in Chch two weeks after those matches and then win every remaining game for the season. A big month coming up for the Blues.

I'm picking the below as my top 6

Chiefs
Reds
Crusaders
Brumbies
Hurricanes
Highlanders

Mr Fish

@Canes4life said in Super Rugby 2025:

@Mr-Fish said in Super Rugby 2025:

I expect the Hurricanes/Highlanders rematch in May will decode the final make-up of the top six.

I imagine Chiefs, Crusaders, Reds, Brumbies, Blue will take the top five (more or less in the order).

The Blues have to win one of their home games against either the Crusaders and Canes coming up. Canes likely to be near full strength for that match with a number of players coming back after the bye so that should be close.

Lose both and they will struggle to make the top 6, especially considering they will have to beat the Saders down in Chch two weeks after those matches and then win every remaining game for the season. A big month coming up for the Blues.

I'm picking the below as my top 6

Chiefs

Reds

Crusaders

Brumbies

Hurricanes

Highlanders

After factoring in two schedules, I'd rather be the Blues (who are 3 points behind the Highlanders but have played an extra game).

Highlanders:
Chiefs
Chiefs
Crusaders
Crusaders
Reds
Brumbies
Hurricanes (w injured players back)
Force (in Perth)
Drua
Moana

Blues:
Crusaders
Crusaders
Reds
Hurricanes (w/o injured players back)
Drua (in Fiji)
Waratahs
Force
Moana
Moana

Canes4life

@Mr-Fish said in Super Rugby 2025:

@Canes4life said in Super Rugby 2025:

@Mr-Fish said in Super Rugby 2025:

I expect the Hurricanes/Highlanders rematch in May will decode the final make-up of the top six.

I imagine Chiefs, Crusaders, Reds, Brumbies, Blue will take the top five (more or less in the order).

The Blues have to win one of their home games against either the Crusaders and Canes coming up. Canes likely to be near full strength for that match with a number of players coming back after the bye so that should be close.

Lose both and they will struggle to make the top 6, especially considering they will have to beat the Saders down in Chch two weeks after those matches and then win every remaining game for the season. A big month coming up for the Blues.

I'm picking the below as my top 6

Chiefs

Reds

Crusaders

Brumbies

Hurricanes

Highlanders
After factoring in two schedules, I'd rather be the Blues (who are 3 points behind the Highlanders but have played an extra game).

I have popped in the result predictions for the remaining games and based off this I have predicted how many points each team will make for the rest of the regular season. I think the Blues and Hurricanes will just pip the Highlanders for a playoff spot which goes against what I posted above. Likelihood is that I'll be completely wrong and there will be plenty of upsets remaining. All of this will be moot anyway as whoever gets in will likely play the Chiefs and/or someone like the Saders away in the quarters so that will be bloody difficult anyway but not impossible if they have most of their players available and healthy.

Highlanders:
Chiefs - likely loss away
Chiefs - 50/50 at home
Crusaders - likely loss away
Crusaders - 50/50 at home
Reds - 50/50
Brumbies - likely loss away
Hurricanes - likely loss away
Force (in Perth) - likely win
Drua - depends if home or away. If away likely loss
Moana - likely win

Points prediction from games above: 21 points which will leave them on 31 points to finish the season

Blues:
Crusaders - 50/50 at home
Crusaders - likely loss away
Reds - if at home likely win, if away 50/50
Hurricanes (w/o injured players back) - 50/50
Drua (in Fiji) - 50/50
Waratahs - likely win
Force - likely win
Moana - likely win
Moana - likely win

Points prediction from games above: 30 points which will leave them on 37 points to finish the season.

Hurricanes:
Waratahs - likely win
Blues - 50/50
Crusaders - 50/50
Force - likely win
Brumbies - the Canes have a horrible record in Canberra
Chiefs - 50/50
Highlanders - likely win
Reds - 50/50
Moana - likely win

Points prediction from games above: 27 points which will leave them on 36 points to finish the season

nzzp

@Canes4life the 6th place cutoff last year was 28 points.

If we win 5, we should get to the playoffs. And the run home looks very doable (brain fart against the Brumbies excluded):
M-P
Reds
Drua
M-P
Tahs

If you drop drua, you can pick up a game against Sadersx2 or Canes.

That loss to the Brumbies really hurt us. Our draw is so front loaded it's not funny.

Bovidae

Whoever was responsible for the draw did a terrible job when some NZ teams can play each other twice before playing other NZ teams.

Canes4life

@Bovidae said in Super Rugby 2025:

Whoever was responsible for the draw did a terrible job when some NZ teams can play each other twice before playing other NZ teams.

With only 11 teams I hope we get to a point where everyone plays everyone home and away. The fairest way IMO but I guess it's challenging as it might clash with the international schedule.

Landers92

@Mr-Fish said in Super Rugby 2025:

@Canes4life said in Super Rugby 2025:

@Mr-Fish said in Super Rugby 2025:
Highlanders:
Chiefs
Chiefs
Crusaders
Crusaders
Reds
Brumbies
Hurricanes (w injured players back)
Force (in Perth)
Drua
Moana

Highlanders:
Chiefs(Home)
Chiefs(Away)
Crusaders(Home)
Crusaders(Away)
Reds (Home)
Brumbies (Away)
Hurricanes (Away)
Force (Away)
Drua(Home)
Moana(Home)

5 home, 5 away. Of the away games remaining, I would expect to get at least 1 win(Force most likely of the bunch) with the home games remaining I would expect to win 3 or 4, losses to the Chiefs and the Crusaders home game being the up in the air. That would be 16-20 points before bonus points are considered(26-30 total). I think that’s a reasonable prediction.

A super tight comp, upsets are happening regularly so I think it’s reasonable to think every team has a real shot at the 6. If Drua and Moana can learn to get away wins it could really make things interesting.

SouthernMann

@Landers92 said in Super Rugby 2025:

@Mr-Fish said in Super Rugby 2025:

@Canes4life said in Super Rugby 2025:

@Mr-Fish said in Super Rugby 2025:
Highlanders:
Chiefs
Chiefs
Crusaders
Crusaders
Reds
Brumbies
Hurricanes (w injured players back)
Force (in Perth)
Drua
Moana

Highlanders:
Chiefs(Home)
Chiefs(Away)
Crusaders(Home)
Crusaders(Away)
Reds (Home)
Brumbies (Away)
Hurricanes (Away)
Force (Away)
Drua(Home)
Moana(Home)

5 home, 5 away. Of the away games remaining, I would expect to get at least 1 win(Force most likely of the bunch) with the home games remaining I would expect to win 3 or 4, losses to the Chiefs and the Crusaders home game being the up in the air. That would be 16-20 points before bonus points are considered(26-30 total). I think that’s a reasonable prediction.

A super tight comp, upsets are happening regularly so I think it’s reasonable to think every team has a real shot at the 6. If Drua and Moana can learn to get away wins it could really make things interesting.

If we do make it, we really need to win one of our last three to feel like we have any sort of momentum going in.

The final four rounds of

Bye
Hurricanes (A)
Crusaders (A)
Chiefs (H)

Is a brutal end to the season. If we lose all three, and fart into the top 6. We will be going in winless for a month, and battling for confidence. We need to be able to go potentially a win and a loss against the Canes and Crusaders. Then give ourselves a good shot against the Chiefs.

Canes4life

@Landers92 said in Super Rugby 2025:

@Mr-Fish said in Super Rugby 2025:

@Canes4life said in Super Rugby 2025:

@Mr-Fish said in Super Rugby 2025:
Highlanders:
Chiefs
Chiefs
Crusaders
Crusaders
Reds
Brumbies
Hurricanes (w injured players back)
Force (in Perth)
Drua
Moana

Highlanders:
Chiefs(Home)
Chiefs(Away)
Crusaders(Home)
Crusaders(Away)
Reds (Home)
Brumbies (Away)
Hurricanes (Away)
Force (Away)
Drua(Home)
Moana(Home)

5 home, 5 away. Of the away games remaining, I would expect to get at least 1 win(Force most likely of the bunch) with the home games remaining I would expect to win 3 or 4, losses to the Chiefs and the Crusaders home game being the up in the air. That would be 16-20 points before bonus points are considered(26-30 total). I think that’s a reasonable prediction.

A super tight comp, upsets are happening regularly so I think it’s reasonable to think every team has a real shot at the 6. If Drua and Moana can learn to get away wins it could really make things interesting.

I went very conservative for each team above so expect each of those teams to potentially pick up more points than what I've suggested. It's a shame the season doesn't run a little longer.

chchfanatic

So Chiefs to win the round robin and choke to the Crusaders in final. . I’ve seen this before somewhere.

Landers92

@chchfanatic said in Super Rugby 2025:

So Chiefs to win the round robin and choke to the Crusaders in final. . I’ve seen this before somewhere.

Pump the brakes, the crusaders wins have come against a severely under strength Canes side as well as Reds and Force teams minus their 10s and multiple wallabies… let’s see what they do when things really get going. I will say though, Crusaders look a lot better this year, just wouldn’t have them in the final just yet.

Mr Fish

The Crusaders have looked very Crusaders-like in the last few weeks. Not necessarily in the way they've played but simply because the ball has just kept bouncing their way. It's very reminiscent of the successful sides of the past (contrast with last year when the ball just never seemed to sit up for them).

Ominous.

The Silver Fern

Super Rugby 2025