All Blacks XV 2025
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@sparky said in All Blacks XV 2025:
Really short of specialist Locks. That might not be an issue against the Barbarians or Uruguay, but it will be against England A.
Yeah, I had a similar thought as well, which I tried to work out by sifting through some of the NPC numbers.
Lineout
None of Ah Kuoi, Walker-Leawere, Beehre, Delany or Hannah are particularly dominant lineout players, either on their own feed or on opposition ball. Ah Kuoi is probably the biggest threat for opposition ball but his 0.7 steals per 80 minutes during the NPC was behind Wellingtonâs Akira Ieremia (0.8), North Harbourâs Tristyn Cook (0.9) and Canterburyâs Liam Jack. While the latter only had limited minutes in the NPC (233), he proved to be a big problem for opposition lineouts (1.7 steals per 80 minutes). Jack could be a real player to watch, if heâs able to continue producing these kinds of lineout numbers in the future.On own feeds, it is not surprising that tall timber provides the most reliable target. Only three players averaged over 5 lineout takes per game, and 2 out of those 3 were 2m+ (Josh Lord and Will Tucker). Mitch Dunshea of Southland is the other but his proficiency is perhaps more to be explained by Southlandâs lack of genuine lineout targets than his own lineout expertise, as Southland had the worst lineout success rate in the comp, at 77%.
Lineout might prove to be an issue for the AB XV, without easy banker options like Lord or Will Tucker in the squadThis lack of lineout proficiency might also explain the inclusion of a player like Kaylum Boshier who is, alongside Devan Flanders, TK Howden and (the unincluded) Jacob Norris, one of the best and most proficient lineout loose forwards in the competition.
Carrying
In other aspects of locking play, it will be interesting to see how SR and NPC form can be translated to what is most likely to be tougher opposition. While Walker-Leawere had a real mixed season so far, both at Super Rugby and NPC level, what he does offer is carrying ability, both in terms of number of carries and post-contact metres made. With the Hurricane lock now injured, the carrying onus will most likely fall on a player like Jamie Hannah, who has shown an ability throughout the NPC to make genuine inroads (24.2 post-contact metres made per 80 minutes).
With the loss of Walker-Leawere, Jamie Hannah now presents as the main running threat, with Beehre and Delany presenting less of a carrying optionThe question remains whether Hannah will remain as effective against the bigger bodies of international opposition. It makes one wonder whether some heavier players â like Fiti Sa, Aisake Vakasiuola or Akira Ieremia â might not have been an intriguing option, considering their more considerable bulk. Perhaps Ieremia isnât available due to his Japanese contract but the other two are promising young players who, as the stats show, can already contribute in a specific way. While they are raw in other areas, it mightâve been a good idea to see how they wouldâve responded to a more international environment.
Defence
While someone like Beehre had a great second half of the SRP season, he wasnât able to really continue that form for Auckland, making both less carries (8.1) and post-contact metres (15.5) per 80 minutes compared to Super Rugby (11.1 C/80 and 22.2 PCM/80). His defensive involvements were also higher at Super Rugby level, making nearly 15 tackles per 80 minutes for the Blues compared to only 12.8 for Auckland. He will have to show on tour that his not-so-great NPC was just a bump in his rugby road, as there are other players who are making compelling cases with their NPC form.
None of the real volume-tacklers were selected for the AB XV, with someone like Shalfoon being perhaps a tad unluckyZach Gallagher stands alone in terms of his defensive involvements per 80 minutes, further emphasizing the great season he had for Canterbury both at lock and at blindside. Heâs another, like Ieremia, who was probably not considered due to his Japanese contract. Players like Antonio Shalfoon, Jack Lee and Tristyn Cook also proved to be highly involved defensively, providing a solid rate of dominant tackling as well.
Looking at the numbers, North Harbourâs Tristyn Cook is an interesting player to keep a watch on for the future. A player like Cook is a fascinating example of how being confronted with certain stats can trigger a case of cognitive dissonance. Whenever Iâve watched Cook play for Harbour this season, I mostly noticed his ill-discipline and lack of breakdown efficacy. And yet, when putting these three graphs next to each other, Tristyn Cook is someone who consistently appears in a positive manner, whether itâs as a lineout threat (0.9 steals per 80 minutes), a carry option (23.9 post-contact metres made per 80 minutes) or as a highly involved defender (over 14 tackles made per 80 minutes).
Thatâs not to say that his lack of discipline and his, at times, ineffective physicality arenât an issue, especially if he wants to focus on blindside. But what it does show is that, if Cook can put on a few more pounds while retaining his mobility and involvements, he could become a very good player, whether itâs in the engine room or amongst the loose forwards.
Summary
The selection protocol of the AB XV, when looking at a specific area like lock, seems to mirror the AB selection strategy, which is to pick allrounders rather than specialists. Players like Ah Kuoi, Beehre, Delany, and Hannah are quite solid in most areas without necessarily excelling in a specific area (Walker-Leawere being perhaps the sole exception here).If the focus wouldâve been on certain areas of excellence, players like Will Tucker (lineout takes), Aisake Vakasiuola (carrying and post-contact metres) and Antonio Shalfoon (dominant tackling) mightâve been selected instead. While it makes players less interchangeable, it has the benefit of clarity in role distribution, with every player knowing exactly what their main responsibilities are.
Right now, the NZR selection strategy seems to rather work around having all bases covered, instead of targeting particular strengths and weaknesses. It feels like an exercise in raising the floor of performances rather than looking to maximize the teamâs ceiling. Whether thatâs a particularly wise strategy, Iâll leave that aside until after the tour.
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@brodean said in All Blacks XV 2025:
ETS should be in the ABs squad for sure. Tangitau is a defensive liability.
Tangitau is a 14 point swing type of player we cannot leave the Ferrari in the garage for too much longer, if Sevu Reece is still in the All Blacks at age 29 then I honestly give up!
13K views · 308 reactions | Same same but different đ§...
Same same but different đ§ @highlandersteam Caleb Tangitau is no stranger to nabbing a run away try against the run of play đ„ #SuperRugbyPacific
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My eyes might be deceiving, but I am not convinced Tangitau is a fast as we think.
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@taniwharugby said in All Blacks XV 2025:
@Grooter yeah if we are willing to overlook a wingers lack of pace...
Plus, Tangitau can be taught new.systems and hopefully learn, Reece ain't getting faster, ever.
And maybe he can be taught how to force the ball properly too
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