All Blacks 2025
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@brodean said in All Blacks 2025:
https://super.rugby/superrugby/match-centre/match-packs/2025-qualifying-finals/
Looking at the match pack stats for loose forwards this season:
Defenders Beaten ( carries ) :
36 Lio-Willie (143)
22 Sotutu (131)
23 Kirifi (125)
18 Lakai (168)
16 Papali'i (56)
15 Iose (74)
10 Finau (79)
9 Parker (70)
2 Blackadder (65)Defenders Beaten per carry:
0.28 Papali'i
0.25 Lio-Willie
0.2 Iose
0.18 Kirifi
0.17 Sotutu
0.13 Finau
0.13 Parker
0.11 Lakai
0.03 Blackadder( Sititi not in the match pack)
I like Dalton, and agree he's probably the best ruck forward in NZ (and also a very accurate defender) - but he is not a great carrier, or support runner. He's not bad, but having him at the top of a carrying stat as if he's a gun is misleading, and there's a good reason the Blues use him where his strengths lie.
His problem re AB selection isn't that though in my opinion - it's that he's not that big, not an outstanding lineout forward, and neither are Savea, Sititi and Barrett.@reprobate Barrett is a lock. You would think he was very good at his core job. Otherwise he's just another middling player who can do some good things but isn't a master of the most important ones
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@brodean said in All Blacks 2025:
https://super.rugby/superrugby/match-centre/match-packs/2025-qualifying-finals/
Looking at the match pack stats for loose forwards this season:
Defenders Beaten ( carries ) :
36 Lio-Willie (143)
22 Sotutu (131)
23 Kirifi (125)
18 Lakai (168)
16 Papali'i (56)
15 Iose (74)
10 Finau (79)
9 Parker (70)
2 Blackadder (65)Defenders Beaten per carry:
0.28 Papali'i
0.25 Lio-Willie
0.2 Iose
0.18 Kirifi
0.17 Sotutu
0.13 Finau
0.13 Parker
0.11 Lakai
0.03 Blackadder( Sititi not in the match pack)
I like Dalton, and agree he's probably the best ruck forward in NZ (and also a very accurate defender) - but he is not a great carrier, or support runner. He's not bad, but having him at the top of a carrying stat as if he's a gun is misleading, and there's a good reason the Blues use him where his strengths lie.
His problem re AB selection isn't that though in my opinion - it's that he's not that big, not an outstanding lineout forward, and neither are Savea, Sititi and Barrett.@reprobate said in All Blacks 2025:
@brodean said in All Blacks 2025:
https://super.rugby/superrugby/match-centre/match-packs/2025-qualifying-finals/
Looking at the match pack stats for loose forwards this season:
Defenders Beaten ( carries ) :
36 Lio-Willie (143)
22 Sotutu (131)
23 Kirifi (125)
18 Lakai (168)
16 Papali'i (56)
15 Iose (74)
10 Finau (79)
9 Parker (70)
2 Blackadder (65)Defenders Beaten per carry:
0.28 Papali'i
0.25 Lio-Willie
0.2 Iose
0.18 Kirifi
0.17 Sotutu
0.13 Finau
0.13 Parker
0.11 Lakai
0.03 Blackadder( Sititi not in the match pack)
I like Dalton, and agree he's probably the best ruck forward in NZ (and also a very accurate defender) - but he is not a great carrier, or support runner. He's not bad, but having him at the top of a carrying stat as if he's a gun is misleading, and there's a good reason the Blues use him where his strengths lie.
His problem re AB selection isn't that though in my opinion - it's that he's not that big, not an outstanding lineout forward, and neither are Savea, Sititi and Barrett.I’m sure he was when he came on the scene or did I imagine that ?
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@brodean said in All Blacks 2025:
@gt12 said in All Blacks 2025:
@KiwiMurph said in All Blacks 2025:
@sparky said in All Blacks 2025:
Why wouldn't a Sititi-Savea-Sotutu back row work at Test level?
At least give it a go ffs
I worry about our lineout.
I know Sotutu isn't terrible and Sititi can be used.
If we have Vaii's workrate at lock that's a good thing, right? But, you add Barrett as the other lock and suddenly we have five hybrids from 4-7.Sotutu won the most lineouts of all NZ players last year in SR. The Blues didn't use him as much this year but he is an excellent lineout operator.
Long arms and good aerial skills.
@Duluth said in All Blacks 2025:
Long arms and good aerial skills.
Reads like a CV for a satellite dish installer.
I'd like to see Sotutu given another chance, but just can't see it with the current coaching set-up.. Think it's going to be a Savea/Sititi/Blackadder combination, though maybe an injury might open things up for him.
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@Duluth said in All Blacks 2025:
Long arms and good aerial skills.
Reads like a CV for a satellite dish installer.
I'd like to see Sotutu given another chance, but just can't see it with the current coaching set-up.. Think it's going to be a Savea/Sititi/Blackadder combination, though maybe an injury might open things up for him.
@Victor-Meldrew said in All Blacks 2025:
@Duluth said in All Blacks 2025:
Long arms and good aerial skills.
> Reads like a CV for a satellite dish installer.
I'd like to see Sotutu given another chance, but just can't see it with the current coaching set-up.. Think it's going to be a Savea/Sititi/Blackadder combination, though maybe an injury might open things up for him.
I just want it to be known that @sparky liked this
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@brodean said in All Blacks 2025:
https://super.rugby/superrugby/match-centre/match-packs/2025-qualifying-finals/
Looking at the match pack stats for loose forwards this season:
Defenders Beaten ( carries ) :
36 Lio-Willie (143)
22 Sotutu (131)
23 Kirifi (125)
18 Lakai (168)
16 Papali'i (56)
15 Iose (74)
10 Finau (79)
9 Parker (70)
2 Blackadder (65)Defenders Beaten per carry:
0.28 Papali'i
0.25 Lio-Willie
0.2 Iose
0.18 Kirifi
0.17 Sotutu
0.13 Finau
0.13 Parker
0.11 Lakai
0.03 Blackadder( Sititi not in the match pack)
I like Dalton, and agree he's probably the best ruck forward in NZ (and also a very accurate defender) - but he is not a great carrier, or support runner. He's not bad, but having him at the top of a carrying stat as if he's a gun is misleading, and there's a good reason the Blues use him where his strengths lie.
His problem re AB selection isn't that though in my opinion - it's that he's not that big, not an outstanding lineout forward, and neither are Savea, Sititi and Barrett.He still has speed and pace off the mark as you can see in this try for Counties he scores from half way in 2024. There's very few loose forwards who score this try from halfway.
Watch from 6:40
Example of good support play this year:
It's just not how the Blues use Papali'i and I think you underestimate his ability as a carrier.
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I think looking at last season as a guide to what we do this season in the loose forwards is a little misleading when the AB coaches were committed to playing Cane at openiside in his final year when he was fit.
They resorted to type when he wasn’t fit and played the guy that had backed him up the last couple of years - Papali’i. I don’t really count the Fiji test where there were a number of changes to regular starters eg Newell at tighthead, Aumua at hooker, Jacobsen at 6, Blackadder at 7, Ratima at 9, Proctor at 13.
So now that Cane is retired do they now officially hand the baton over to Dalton as the permanent openside, thus keeping Savea at no8.
Either it’s a renewing of sorts or we keep trying to find a blindside that fits with Dalton and Savea.
Sititi got plenty of attention. Last season and rightly so because he made plays. But second seasons have been known to wreak havoc with young players so time will tell.
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I think looking at last season as a guide to what we do this season in the loose forwards is a little misleading when the AB coaches were committed to playing Cane at openiside in his final year when he was fit.
They resorted to type when he wasn’t fit and played the guy that had backed him up the last couple of years - Papali’i. I don’t really count the Fiji test where there were a number of changes to regular starters eg Newell at tighthead, Aumua at hooker, Jacobsen at 6, Blackadder at 7, Ratima at 9, Proctor at 13.
So now that Cane is retired do they now officially hand the baton over to Dalton as the permanent openside, thus keeping Savea at no8.
Either it’s a renewing of sorts or we keep trying to find a blindside that fits with Dalton and Savea.
Sititi got plenty of attention. Last season and rightly so because he made plays. But second seasons have been known to wreak havoc with young players so time will tell.
@ACT-Crusader Yeah, it is a possibility that I've been ignoring - the straight swap of Dalton for Cane and keeping Savea at 8. It did seem a bit like DP was on the outer last year though, which you wouldn't think they would do if that were the plan for this year.
They seemed very reluctant to play Savea at 7 last year, but there is a lot of evidence from this year that he's quite capable there, so I think that shifts the calculus a bit further against Dalton.
Second year blues for Sititi is something I think all of us are ignoring as he was such a highlight for us in a somewhat grim last year. He's seen as an 8 by those who have been following him from a young age, but his best AB performances so far have been at 6 - no idea what the coaches are thinking there. -
@ACT-Crusader Yeah, it is a possibility that I've been ignoring - the straight swap of Dalton for Cane and keeping Savea at 8. It did seem a bit like DP was on the outer last year though, which you wouldn't think they would do if that were the plan for this year.
They seemed very reluctant to play Savea at 7 last year, but there is a lot of evidence from this year that he's quite capable there, so I think that shifts the calculus a bit further against Dalton.
Second year blues for Sititi is something I think all of us are ignoring as he was such a highlight for us in a somewhat grim last year. He's seen as an 8 by those who have been following him from a young age, but his best AB performances so far have been at 6 - no idea what the coaches are thinking there.If they wish to achieve balance with Ardie, we need a Cane-like Paps, Blackadder, Jacobson there.
The issue is that all of them are better at 7 IMO than 6 due to a bit of a lack of size, however all of them a bit leaden footed to be a true 7. I think that's a bit of an issue for Paps.
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If they wish to achieve balance with Ardie, we need a Cane-like Paps, Blackadder, Jacobson there.
The issue is that all of them are better at 7 IMO than 6 due to a bit of a lack of size, however all of them a bit leaden footed to be a true 7. I think that's a bit of an issue for Paps.
@gt12 said in All Blacks 2025:
If they wish to achieve balance with Ardie, we need a Cane-like Paps, Blackadder, Jacobson there.
The issue is that all of them are better at 7 IMO than 6 due to a bit of a lack of size, however all of them a bit leaden footed to be a true 7. I think that's a bit of an issue for Paps.
Papali'i will be up there in the speed tests.
In terms of NZ loose forwards maybe only Savea and Lasaqa have higher top speed.
I'd be surprised if they look past Savea at 7. The easy solution in their mind is for them to pick Blackadder at 6 to counter Savea and Sititi's lack of cleaning.
Let's not forget that Blackadder was the preferred 6 for that first Bok test and Sititi only got a chance due to his injury.
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@gt12 said in All Blacks 2025:
If they wish to achieve balance with Ardie, we need a Cane-like Paps, Blackadder, Jacobson there.
The issue is that all of them are better at 7 IMO than 6 due to a bit of a lack of size, however all of them a bit leaden footed to be a true 7. I think that's a bit of an issue for Paps.
Papali'i will be up there in the speed tests.
In terms of NZ loose forwards maybe only Savea and Lasaqa have higher top speed.
I'd be surprised if they look past Savea at 7. The easy solution in their mind is for them to pick Blackadder at 6 to counter Savea and Sititi's lack of cleaning.
Let's not forget that Blackadder was the preferred 6 for that first Bok test and Sititi only got a chance due to his injury.
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Blackadder at 6.
The Saffa pack responds:
I wouldn't pick Blackadder but I'm not Jason Ryan.
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Lio-Willie has been the most consistent performer at 8. Both sides of the ball :beaming_face_with_smiling_eyes:
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I think they will go with Finau with EB in the squad. My gut feeling is they are basically conservative. Seems to me picking Savea at 7 gives them more options. Would he be the best 7 of all the options? Probably is or in top 2 or 3. And has that experience and mana.
As to Sititi at 8 in ABs-I thought he played against France and Japan there and was ok to pretty good? Hasn't been pulled in an AB game (yet). -
I think they will go with Finau with EB in the squad. My gut feeling is they are basically conservative. Seems to me picking Savea at 7 gives them more options. Would he be the best 7 of all the options? Probably is or in top 2 or 3. And has that experience and mana.
As to Sititi at 8 in ABs-I thought he played against France and Japan there and was ok to pretty good? Hasn't been pulled in an AB game (yet).@nostrildamus said in All Blacks 2025:
I think they will go with Finau with EB in the squad. My gut feeling is they are basically conservative. Seems to me picking Savea at 7 gives them more options. Would he be the best 7 of all the options? Probably is or in top 2 or 3. And has that experience and mana.
As to Sititi at 8 in ABs-I thought he played against France and Japan there and was ok to pretty good? Hasn't been pulled in an AB game (yet).Well they couldn't really pull Sititi in that game against the Pumas we lost last year but he had a shocker.
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My prediction for AB selection is that after Super form meant absolutely nothing last year, if the Crusaders manage to win the thing this year it will suddenly mean a lot, with comments like "red and black player X really stood up in the finals which is akin to test footy" from our completely unbiased coaching group.
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On speed of loosies, McCaw wasn't exactly a speed merchant either. More important than speed, particularly for a loosie playing the tighter role, is a big engine and great game awareness which allows them to get themselves in the right position more often than not.
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Lio-Willie has been the most consistent performer at 8. Both sides of the ball :beaming_face_with_smiling_eyes:
@Old-Samurai-Jack said in All Blacks 2025:
Lio-Willie has been the most consistent performer at 8. Both sides of the ball :beaming_face_with_smiling_eyes:
Been their best loose for the last couple of seasons.
He really feels like an 8 to me, and he’s not exactly huge.
If they were prepared to shake it up and put in a real 8, he or Sotutu would be my picks, especially based on form.
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@ACT-Crusader Yeah, it is a possibility that I've been ignoring - the straight swap of Dalton for Cane and keeping Savea at 8. It did seem a bit like DP was on the outer last year though, which you wouldn't think they would do if that were the plan for this year.
They seemed very reluctant to play Savea at 7 last year, but there is a lot of evidence from this year that he's quite capable there, so I think that shifts the calculus a bit further against Dalton.
Second year blues for Sititi is something I think all of us are ignoring as he was such a highlight for us in a somewhat grim last year. He's seen as an 8 by those who have been following him from a young age, but his best AB performances so far have been at 6 - no idea what the coaches are thinking there.@reprobate said in All Blacks 2025:
@ACT-Crusader Yeah, it is a possibility that I've been ignoring - the straight swap of Dalton for Cane and keeping Savea at 8. It did seem a bit like DP was on the outer last year though, which you wouldn't think they would do if that were the plan for this year.
They seemed very reluctant to play Savea at 7 last year, but there is a lot of evidence from this year that he's quite capable there, so I think that shifts the calculus a bit further against Dalton.
Second year blues for Sititi is something I think all of us are ignoring as he was such a highlight for us in a somewhat grim last year. He's seen as an 8 by those who have been following him from a young age, but his best AB performances so far have been at 6 - no idea what the coaches are thinking there.Sititi's best performances came at 6, but he didn't really the play the role of a 6, which is why our loosies got outplayed regardless. Balance is critical in the loosies and I don't think we should ruin that balance by trying to shoehorn both Ardie and Sititi into the starting 15. One of them on the bench would give us a huge weapon in the 2nd 40 as well.
I thought Dalts might have been on the outer last year but have seen comments that he had a hamstring injury during the EOYT which is why he didn't feature. I really hope (hoping against hope given he's an Aucklander) that they have him penciled in as their starting 7. A trio of Finau/Parker, Dalton and Savea with Sititi our weapon off the bench has a much better look than something like Blackadder, Savea, Sititi starting.
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On speed of loosies, McCaw wasn't exactly a speed merchant either. More important than speed, particularly for a loosie playing the tighter role, is a big engine and great game awareness which allows them to get themselves in the right position more often than not.
@No-Quarter said in All Blacks 2025:
On speed of loosies, McCaw wasn't exactly a speed merchant either. More important than speed, particularly for a loosie playing the tighter role, is a big engine and great game awareness which allows them to get themselves in the right position more often than not.
True, up to a point.
Like someone said with height at the lineout - it's not an issue until it's a big issue. If you aren't fast, you start needing other players who are around you - and then that changes the balance of the trio. And if you aren't fast enough and you go up against players who are faster, that can be a real problem. Also, early McCaw was quick!
We're looking at stats when they can be misleading - part of the issue with early Hooper and with Adam Thomson were they got to lots of places but didn't have a big impact when they did. Razor loves multi-position players, which means you dno't get specialists (by definition) ... and I think that is a real problem at Test level. EB is great in many ways, but he is not fast - seems to struggle to run at times - and I don't think is quick enough to be a 7 in Tests. Obviously Razor and Ryan disagree with me though.
