All Blacks 2025
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@Chris-B said in All Blacks 2025:
@pukunui said in All Blacks 2025:
@KiwiMurph said in All Blacks 2025:
@Chris-B said in All Blacks 2025:
@No-Quarter He'd signed in Japan!
After getting the quiet word he wasn't in the AB plans.....
Is there any actual evidence of this happening?
Given there's not a thousand post thread on the topic, I'm guessing not!
But, it's another reading from the Book of the Injustices of Akira!
Honestly, it's like the bloody Jehovah's Witnesses - they just keep coming back.
Burn the dossiers boys, he's left the building - he left a bit earlier than this last year!
This is a bit rich coming from Frizell's publicist.
@Nepia said in All Blacks 2025:
@Chris-B said in All Blacks 2025:
@pukunui said in All Blacks 2025:
@KiwiMurph said in All Blacks 2025:
@Chris-B said in All Blacks 2025:
@No-Quarter He'd signed in Japan!
After getting the quiet word he wasn't in the AB plans.....
Is there any actual evidence of this happening?
Given there's not a thousand post thread on the topic, I'm guessing not!
But, it's another reading from the Book of the Injustices of Akira!
Honestly, it's like the bloody Jehovah's Witnesses - they just keep coming back.
Burn the dossiers boys, he's left the building - he left a bit earlier than this last year!
This is a bit rich coming from Frizell's publicist.
I've never met the guy, but providing a few facts to the conversation never goes amiss. Doesn't always get you many likes on the Fern though.
May surprise you that I have nothing against Akira - I'd have liked to see him used more - and at times persisted with.
But, I do have an axe to grind with his cheerleaders - and to an extent his detractors (several of whom were trolling the cheerleaders). I've had to listen to ten years of crap that have made discussing blindside flanker pretty much a waste of time of the Fern.
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it's not really about Akira though is it?
We've been pretty fucking average for a good 5 seasons in a row now, a history basically re-written at times because of two wins over Ireland, and running the Boks close in the World Cup Final (a game very rarely one sided no matter what form shown by the participants leading up to it).
And yet, for all that, even now with supposedly new coaches, we wheel the same guys out week after week to the same old shit. We are weak in the same areas. While there are fringe guys out there looked over continually because of some perceived flaw in their game, despite the incumbents also being flawed.
@mariner4life What gets to me most is the lack of ambition with the current custodians of the Black Jersey. There seems to be a belief in AB HQ that if we are third or fourth in the world and hold onto the Bledisloe Cup then that's alright. Bugger that!
Our coaches have lost their belief in polishing rough diamonds into world class players, our administrators seem content to play second fiddle to the Springboks, our players enjoy being legends in their own small country rather than global superstars.
It won't be too long until the fans lose their passion too.
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FWIW i still maintain if they had the balls to leave Aaron Smith on for the full 80 we still win that 2nd Lions test.
I don't disagree with anything there (and i am definitely on board with "it's nigh on impossible to win everything now") but i have been mystified with so many selections for so long now (actually, writing that out, i guess the problem is me), and while the results haven't been appalling, we have played shit so many times.
And i am sick of the same core guys getting wheeled out every single week, most for 80 minutes, failing to deliver, and never being under pressure for their spot.
I expect the 2025 squad to be the 2024 squad with maaaaybe some fiddling around the edges, and the test team to be the same as last year as well. That's kinda depressing really.
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@mariner4life What gets to me most is the lack of ambition with the current custodians of the Black Jersey. There seems to be a belief in AB HQ that if we are third or fourth in the world and hold onto the Bledisloe Cup then that's alright. Bugger that!
Our coaches have lost their belief in polishing rough diamonds into world class players, our administrators seem content to play second fiddle to the Springboks, our players enjoy being legends in their own small country rather than global superstars.
It won't be too long until the fans lose their passion too.
@sparky To be honest, I don't get that feeling.
I think there's probably a degree of apprehension with the contraction of Super rugby, and especially with the Aussie teams being rubbish for a few years. There's not really anywhere for us to go if they'd imploded. Thankfully, they're looking to be on the improve - and Moana and the Drua are building.
I think mostly, there's an overarching fear of losing test matches - that's been exacerbated by our extraordinary success of especially 2011-2015. It's a professional game, we've shared our IP with the world, what exactly is our competitive advantage at the highest level? Not any of us posting on the Fern, I suspect.
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@mariner4life Well, it is - but, I appreciate your effort to move the conversation on.
In my mind you can trace our decline from clearly the best in the world to the exact instant that SBW got red-carded vs the Lions. We'd beaten them comfortably in the first test (as did several Super teams), we were well on the way to doing so again - but, fate intervened. And by the third test, we were weakened by injury and we had the deal-making referees to deny us at the end.
Another important waypoint was Hansen departing from his mantra of experience and selecting lots of rookies to play the knock-out games in Japan (maybe the cyclone that canceled one of our games didn't help either). Reading Gregor Paul's biography of Hansen, apparently the real plan for dual playmakers was to use Beaudy and DMac, so probably DMac's injury didn't help either. But, we could have fielded the likes of Cane, Ben Smith, Rieko and Crotty. If Hansen had his time again I think he would have.
The absolute dumbest decision of recent times was asking the contenders for All Black coach in 2020 to pre-select their coaching teams (based on the Deans-Henry decision in 2007). So we ended up closing the door on the best assistants for Fozzie by requiring pre-selection. Total lack of appreciation of consequences.
Once we had Fozzie, Schmidt and Ryan in place, we pretty much started to build to a good place. At the RWC, I think we understood better than anyone that there was no point in shooting your bolt early. We took our licks vs SA in a warm-up game and vs France in the pool match. Smart by Foster - I want to win the tournament, not protect minor records like never losing a pool match, though I don't think he'd put it in as many words. Going into the Final, I think SA were somewhat running on fumes - but some unfortunate things happened and we ended up coulda, shoulda, woulda.
Then about 10 of our squad retired including a few legends.
Last year, a bit of a rebuilding year. We had a tough schedule - SA away and Rassie hadn't lost many of his RWC winning team - IMO we went OK in terms of results, but I didn't really comprehend a clear gameplan - maybe play at speed. Initially there was a weird backline configuration that didn't seem to work (similar to what the Crusaders appeared to be using - and not working), but that departed with Leon.
Our golden generation of 2015 is pretty much gone now. I'm pretty optimistic we've got some good talent coming through.
In some ways, I think we as fans have to change our expectations about winning every test. Sometimes, you have to risk losing to develop players - and especially at RWC, it's the Grand Final that matters.
Maybe the Blues are about to teach us something in that regard?
@Chris-B said in All Blacks 2025:
In my mind you can trace our decline from clearly the best in the world to the exact instant that SBW got red-carded vs the Lions
Agree with that
If he doesn't have that brain fart, we win 3 zip, win 2019 and 2023 rwcs...only really serious about one of 3 things...but sliding doors and all
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FWIW i still maintain if they had the balls to leave Aaron Smith on for the full 80 we still win that 2nd Lions test.
I don't disagree with anything there (and i am definitely on board with "it's nigh on impossible to win everything now") but i have been mystified with so many selections for so long now (actually, writing that out, i guess the problem is me), and while the results haven't been appalling, we have played shit so many times.
And i am sick of the same core guys getting wheeled out every single week, most for 80 minutes, failing to deliver, and never being under pressure for their spot.
I expect the 2025 squad to be the 2024 squad with maaaaybe some fiddling around the edges, and the test team to be the same as last year as well. That's kinda depressing really.
@mariner4life said in All Blacks 2025:
I expect the 2025 squad to be the 2024 squad with maaaaybe some fiddling around the edges, and the test team to be the same as last year as well. That's kinda depressing really.
I think you'll be right on this. I expect most of us will be able to pick 90% of the squad.
But, I think there's a significant jump to test level from Super rugby, so most of the best prospects take time to get acclimatised - so there's a bit of disincentive to change.
But, more importantly, we never have to deal with any man-management issues associated with dropping a player. For example, if you were to drop Ardie - as many were advocating last year - you'd be feeling a bit sick right now if he'd signed a multi-million dollar contract to fuck off to Japan.
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@sparky To be honest, I don't get that feeling.
I think there's probably a degree of apprehension with the contraction of Super rugby, and especially with the Aussie teams being rubbish for a few years. There's not really anywhere for us to go if they'd imploded. Thankfully, they're looking to be on the improve - and Moana and the Drua are building.
I think mostly, there's an overarching fear of losing test matches - that's been exacerbated by our extraordinary success of especially 2011-2015. It's a professional game, we've shared our IP with the world, what exactly is our competitive advantage at the highest level? Not any of us posting on the Fern, I suspect.
@Chris-B said in All Blacks 2025:
I think mostly, there's an overarching fear of losing test matches - that's been exacerbated by our extraordinary success of especially 2011-2015. It's a professional game, we've shared our IP with the world, what exactly is our competitive advantage at the highest level? Not any of us posting on the Fern, I suspect.
The issue is - the fear of losing test matches is getting in the way of winning test matches.
Ironically last year was probably the year to try things - first year of a 4 year deal, the two Bok games were away (which we lost anyway) and Razor had 12 months between finishing Crusaders and starting the ABs.
Razor will be building his whole 2025 TRC around keeping Bledisloe and beating Boks at Eden Park - given 2024 I see very few risks being taken in the 23 for those games - which in and of itself could see us get Ws for those games but in the background we still have the same underlying issues that never get addressed (i.e. loose forward balance, midfield, impact from bench loose forward and bench utility etc etc) which could bite us down the track
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@mariner4life said in All Blacks 2025:
I expect the 2025 squad to be the 2024 squad with maaaaybe some fiddling around the edges, and the test team to be the same as last year as well. That's kinda depressing really.
I think you'll be right on this. I expect most of us will be able to pick 90% of the squad.
But, I think there's a significant jump to test level from Super rugby, so most of the best prospects take time to get acclimatised - so there's a bit of disincentive to change.
But, more importantly, we never have to deal with any man-management issues associated with dropping a player. For example, if you were to drop Ardie - as many were advocating last year - you'd be feeling a bit sick right now if he'd signed a multi-million dollar contract to fuck off to Japan.
@Chris-B said in All Blacks 2025:
@mariner4life said in All Blacks 2025:
I expect the 2025 squad to be the 2024 squad with maaaaybe some fiddling around the edges, and the test team to be the same as last year as well. That's kinda depressing really.
I think you'll be right on this. I expect most of us will be able to pick 90% of the squad.
But, I think there's a significant jump to test level from Super rugby, so most of the best prospects take time to get acclimatised - so there's a bit of disincentive to change.
But, more importantly, we never have to deal with any man-management issues associated with dropping a player. For example, if you were to drop Ardie - as many were advocating last year - you'd be feeling a bit sick right now if he'd signed a multi-million dollar contract to fuck off to Japan.
If guys are getting spots because we're scared they'll leave then we are more fucked than I thought
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Ngani coming into the equation next year could be interesting. When is Joey Manu coming to New Zealand? Have predicted for a while that we might have a few ex Nrl players vying for a spot in the next World Cup.
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@SBW1 you wanna go external. do guys like AJ Lam, Timoci Tavatavanawai & Quinn Tupaea not impress you in the slightest or something lol
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The red cards have certainly been an issue.
Loss - SBW Lions
Loss - Scott Barrett Australia
Loss - Tu'ungafasi Australia
Win - Jordie Barrett Australia
Loss - Angus Ta'avao Ireland
Win - Brodie Retallick Japan
Loss - Scott Barrett South Africa ( Plus Sam Cane Yellow )
Win - Ethan De Groot Nambia
Loss - Sam Cane South AfricaApart from the Jordie Barrett one it cost us against the better teams.
Still I feel that loss in Ireland in 2016 was more significant than the Lion's loss. That game marked a real moment of complacency.
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FWIW i still maintain if they had the balls to leave Aaron Smith on for the full 80 we still win that 2nd Lions test.
I don't disagree with anything there (and i am definitely on board with "it's nigh on impossible to win everything now") but i have been mystified with so many selections for so long now (actually, writing that out, i guess the problem is me), and while the results haven't been appalling, we have played shit so many times.
And i am sick of the same core guys getting wheeled out every single week, most for 80 minutes, failing to deliver, and never being under pressure for their spot.
I expect the 2025 squad to be the 2024 squad with maaaaybe some fiddling around the edges, and the test team to be the same as last year as well. That's kinda depressing really.
@mariner4life said in All Blacks 2025:
And i am sick of the same core guys getting wheeled out every single week, most for 80 minutes, failing to deliver, and never being under pressure for their spot.
This. And then e.g. our props recently where some serial underperformer who has been there for ages get injured and someone else comes in and is an immediate improvement, and you just go "fucking no shit dummies, why didn't you pick him 10 tests ago".
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Selection consistency has been an issue. These are the times this decade where the same loose forward trios have been consecutively selected ( according to Gemini ).
28% of games this decade had a consecutive loose forward selection. Win rate is 82% when we have consecutive loose forward selection and 65% when we don't.
11 October 2020 vs Australia (Wellington):
BF: Shannon Frizell
OF: Sam Cane
No. 8: Ardie Savea18 October 2020 vs Australia (Auckland):[1]
BF: Shannon Frizell
OF: Sam Cane
No. 8: Ardie Savea7 August 2021 vs Australia (Auckland):[4]
BF: Akira Ioane[4]
OF: Dalton Papalii[4]
No. 8: Ardie Savea[4]14 August 2021 vs Australia (Auckland):[5]
BF: Akira Ioane[5]
OF: Dalton Papalii
No. 8: Ardie Savea[5]5 September 2021 vs Australia (Perth):
BF: Akira Ioane
OF: Dalton Papalii
No. 8: Ardie Savea13 August 2022 vs South Africa (Johannesburg):
BF: Shannon Frizell
OF: Sam Cane
No. 8: Ardie Savea27 August 2022 vs Argentina (Christchurch):
BF: Shannon Frizell
OF: Sam Cane
No. 8: Ardie Savea3 September 2022 vs Argentina (Hamilton):[7]
BF: Shannon Frizell
OF: Sam Cane[7]
No. 8: Ardie Savea8 July 2023 vs Argentina (Mendoza):
BF: Shannon Frizell
OF: Sam Cane
No. 8: Ardie Savea15 July 2023 vs South Africa (Auckland):
BF: Shannon Frizell
OF: Sam Cane
No. 8: Ardie Savea14 October 2023 vs Ireland (Saint-Denis) (Rugby World Cup Quarter-final):[10]
BF: Shannon Frizell
OF: Sam Cane
No. 8: Ardie Savea20 October 2023 vs Argentina (Saint-Denis) (Rugby World Cup Semi-final):[10]
BF: Shannon Frizell
OF: Sam Cane
No. 8: Ardie Savea28 October 2023 vs South Africa (Saint-Denis) (Rugby World Cup Final):[10]
BF: Shannon Frizell
OF: Sam Cane
No. 8: Ardie SaveaSaturday, July 6, 2024 vs England (Dunedin):
BF: Samipeni Finau
OF: Dalton Papalii
No. 8: Ardie SaveaSaturday, July 13, 2024 vs England (Auckland):
BF: Samipeni Finau
OF: Dalton Papalii
No. 8: Ardie SaveaSaturday, September 21, 2024 vs Australia (Sydney):
BF: Wallace Sititi[5]
OF: Sam Cane[5]
No. 8: Ardie Savea[5]Saturday, September 28, 2024 vs Australia (Wellington):[5]
BF: Wallace Sititi[5]
OF: Sam Cane[5]
No. 8: Ardie Savea[5] -
@ACT-Crusader said in All Blacks 2025:
I think the coaches will keep the faith with Vaa’i but I would really like to see Barrett and Holland get a couple of starts together.
bro you're better than this. Vaa'i has been the premier lock at both levels for the past 12-15 months. If anything SB is the one who should be giving way.
@mariner4life said in All Blacks 2025:
@ACT-Crusader said in All Blacks 2025:
I think the coaches will keep the faith with Vaa’i but I would really like to see Barrett and Holland get a couple of starts together.
bro you're better than this. Vaa'i has been the premier lock at both levels for the past 12-15 months. If anything SB is the one who should be giving way.
They are all in on Barrett being captain so I don’t think they will shift him, and I am a big Vaa’i fan and he will feature in all the big tests - more a case of giving Holland a start perhaps against the Argies or Aussies.
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It's 2025 and people are still claiming Akira Ioane is the saviour for the ABs. A very good Super Rugby player, who never quite kicked on. As the dedicated thread showed, none of the guys we have used since Kaino have consistently done it.
Picking this ABs pack is far from straight forward, because you are balancing impact out of your front row, with the fact your two best locks are short by international standard, with the fact your two best loosies are both best when left to roam loosely.
IMO, nevermind Sititi and Savea being balanced, Barrett, Vaa'i, Sititi & Savea is extraordinarily undersized regardless of who you pair with it. The lineout will get screwed, and what you make-up for in x-factor, you lose proper grunt that allows you to use the x-factor.
You could make a serious argument that his work-rate and height means Holland should start. I won't pretend I am not biased, but picking Holland over Patty T shouldn't even be a consideration. That pack desperately lacks height.
@frugby said in All Blacks 2025:
It's 2025 and people are still claiming Akira Ioane is the saviour for the ABs. A very good Super Rugby player, who never quite kicked on.
Bollocks. He had some great games for the ABs.
https://www.allblacks.com/videos/akira-ioane-goes-beast-mode-vs-australia -
@mariner4life said in All Blacks 2025:
@ACT-Crusader said in All Blacks 2025:
I think the coaches will keep the faith with Vaa’i but I would really like to see Barrett and Holland get a couple of starts together.
bro you're better than this. Vaa'i has been the premier lock at both levels for the past 12-15 months. If anything SB is the one who should be giving way.
They are all in on Barrett being captain so I don’t think they will shift him, and I am a big Vaa’i fan and he will feature in all the big tests - more a case of giving Holland a start perhaps against the Argies or Aussies.
@ACT-Crusader said in All Blacks 2025:
@mariner4life said in All Blacks 2025:
@ACT-Crusader said in All Blacks 2025:
I think the coaches will keep the faith with Vaa’i but I would really like to see Barrett and Holland get a couple of starts together.
bro you're better than this. Vaa'i has been the premier lock at both levels for the past 12-15 months. If anything SB is the one who should be giving way.
They are all in on Barrett being captain so I don’t think they will shift him, and I am a big Vaa’i fan and he will feature in all the big tests - more a case of giving Holland a start perhaps against the Argies or Aussies.
I'm not actually in love with this idea, but for discussion sake since I've had a few too many beers on a weeknight.
Vaai has (more than) the size and workrate we are looking for in our 6, he is good in contact, makes dominant tackles and goes well around the field (he is a good passer when the chiefs run through their set plays but can also be the ball carrier).
Williams and others (e.g., Taylor) can do a role attacking the ball in middle of park, while Savea and Sotutu operate towards the edges.
I don't think any of the above will happen btw.
I'm picking Lio Willie to get the 8 shirt and us to have hybrids in the loosies and to struggle with our line out.
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@ACT-Crusader said in All Blacks 2025:
@mariner4life said in All Blacks 2025:
@ACT-Crusader said in All Blacks 2025:
I think the coaches will keep the faith with Vaa’i but I would really like to see Barrett and Holland get a couple of starts together.
bro you're better than this. Vaa'i has been the premier lock at both levels for the past 12-15 months. If anything SB is the one who should be giving way.
They are all in on Barrett being captain so I don’t think they will shift him, and I am a big Vaa’i fan and he will feature in all the big tests - more a case of giving Holland a start perhaps against the Argies or Aussies.
I'm not actually in love with this idea, but for discussion sake since I've had a few too many beers on a weeknight.
Vaai has (more than) the size and workrate we are looking for in our 6, he is good in contact, makes dominant tackles and goes well around the field (he is a good passer when the chiefs run through their set plays but can also be the ball carrier).
Williams and others (e.g., Taylor) can do a role attacking the ball in middle of park, while Savea and Sotutu operate towards the edges.
I don't think any of the above will happen btw.
I'm picking Lio Willie to get the 8 shirt and us to have hybrids in the loosies and to struggle with our line out.
@gt12 said in All Blacks 2025:
@ACT-Crusader said in All Blacks 2025:
@mariner4life said in All Blacks 2025:
@ACT-Crusader said in All Blacks 2025:
I think the coaches will keep the faith with Vaa’i but I would really like to see Barrett and Holland get a couple of starts together.
bro you're better than this. Vaa'i has been the premier lock at both levels for the past 12-15 months. If anything SB is the one who should be giving way.
They are all in on Barrett being captain so I don’t think they will shift him, and I am a big Vaa’i fan and he will feature in all the big tests - more a case of giving Holland a start perhaps against the Argies or Aussies.
I'm not actually in love with this idea, but for discussion sake since I've had a few too many beers on a weeknight.
Vaai has (more than) the size and workrate we are looking for in our 6, he is good in contact, makes dominant tackles and goes well around the field (he is a good passer when the chiefs run through their set plays but can also be the ball carrier).
Williams and others (e.g., Taylor) can do a role attacking the ball in middle of park, while Savea and Sotutu operate towards the edges.
I don't think any of the above will happen btw.
I'm picking Lio Willie to get the 8 shirt and us to have hybrids in the loosies and to struggle with our line out.
Believe that Razor thinks Lio-Willie is too small for Test rugby.
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@gt12 said in All Blacks 2025:
@ACT-Crusader said in All Blacks 2025:
@mariner4life said in All Blacks 2025:
@ACT-Crusader said in All Blacks 2025:
I think the coaches will keep the faith with Vaa’i but I would really like to see Barrett and Holland get a couple of starts together.
bro you're better than this. Vaa'i has been the premier lock at both levels for the past 12-15 months. If anything SB is the one who should be giving way.
They are all in on Barrett being captain so I don’t think they will shift him, and I am a big Vaa’i fan and he will feature in all the big tests - more a case of giving Holland a start perhaps against the Argies or Aussies.
I'm not actually in love with this idea, but for discussion sake since I've had a few too many beers on a weeknight.
Vaai has (more than) the size and workrate we are looking for in our 6, he is good in contact, makes dominant tackles and goes well around the field (he is a good passer when the chiefs run through their set plays but can also be the ball carrier).
Williams and others (e.g., Taylor) can do a role attacking the ball in middle of park, while Savea and Sotutu operate towards the edges.
I don't think any of the above will happen btw.
I'm picking Lio Willie to get the 8 shirt and us to have hybrids in the loosies and to struggle with our line out.
Believe that Razor thinks Lio-Willie is too small for Test rugby.
