All Blacks 2025
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AI slop 🤨
@zedsdeadbaby It's also missed Caleb Clarke's injury.
https://www.rugby.com.au/news/injured-nz-winger-to-miss-part-of-rugby-championship-2025714
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@antipodean said in All Blacks 2025:
But Savea, Kirifi and Lakai (and to a lesser extent Lio-Willie) appear to be much the same.
can't agree with this point because Savea continues to be an enigma.
The ruck attendance stats posted in the other thread don't seem to match the eye test so i would be interest as to how many of those he arrived at 3rd and leaned on. He absolutely cleaned a couple later in the test, memorable for their exception.
But he's getting picked, he's playing 80, and he is going to do his own thing. The bigger question is what shirt should he wear?The other 3 are small busy loose forwards without a real point of difference.
With Vaai and Finau playing the dirty stuff, Savea doing his thing, what do we need from the #8? Is it purely a worker? If so, then that guy can't be another smaller body, he needs to make a difference when contact is required.
I tell you what, a Finau, Savea, Vaai starting trio with Sititi off the bench would be tough to handle.
He was absent from the discussion of first / second to the breakdown in the discussion on the rugby pod (no idea if by design or not).
They did mention stat hunters who go to many rucks as the third when they shouldn’t be needed….
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@antipodean said in All Blacks 2025:
But Savea, Kirifi and Lakai (and to a lesser extent Lio-Willie) appear to be much the same.
can't agree with this point because Savea continues to be an enigma.
The ruck attendance stats posted in the other thread don't seem to match the eye test so i would be interest as to how many of those he arrived at 3rd and leaned on. He absolutely cleaned a couple later in the test, memorable for their exception.
But he's getting picked, he's playing 80, and he is going to do his own thing. The bigger question is what shirt should he wear?The other 3 are small busy loose forwards without a real point of difference.
With Vaai and Finau playing the dirty stuff, Savea doing his thing, what do we need from the #8? Is it purely a worker? If so, then that guy can't be another smaller body, he needs to make a difference when contact is required.
I tell you what, a Finau, Savea, Vaai starting trio with Sititi off the bench would be tough to handle.
@mariner4life much like the post 2am dancefloor hunt it's no secret I prefer big bodies.
Vaai, Finau and Savea is probably the best we can hope for with the current administration.
But I view with great scepticism stats suggesting Ardie does much at ruck time other than try to be the next person to carry.
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@antipodean said in All Blacks 2025:
But Savea, Kirifi and Lakai (and to a lesser extent Lio-Willie) appear to be much the same.
can't agree with this point because Savea continues to be an enigma.
The ruck attendance stats posted in the other thread don't seem to match the eye test so i would be interest as to how many of those he arrived at 3rd and leaned on. He absolutely cleaned a couple later in the test, memorable for their exception.
But he's getting picked, he's playing 80, and he is going to do his own thing. The bigger question is what shirt should he wear?The other 3 are small busy loose forwards without a real point of difference.
With Vaai and Finau playing the dirty stuff, Savea doing his thing, what do we need from the #8? Is it purely a worker? If so, then that guy can't be another smaller body, he needs to make a difference when contact is required.
I tell you what, a Finau, Savea, Vaai starting trio with Sititi off the bench would be tough to handle.
@mariner4life said in All Blacks 2025:
The ruck attendance stats posted in the other thread don't seem to match the eye test so i would be interest as to how many of those he arrived at 3rd and leaned on. He absolutely cleaned a couple later in the test, memorable for their exception.
Looking at the attacking rucks throughout the game, I thought Savea was physical at the breakdown. He had one particularly poor clean in the first half, going off his feet too quickly to move Fickou - who was already out of the play - which led to the Guillard penalty in the 35th minute.
But if it wasn't for Savea, with Kirifi looking a bit overwhelmed in the first half and Finau being positioned out wide, the AB attacking breakdown would've become a massacre.
I'll agree that Savea was not good enough at the attacking ruck in 2024. But I think he was more than good enough in this area during this Test series, while also being one of the biggest attacking threats in the team (chip-kick not included).
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Lakai, though heavily strapped up, was running around with the Wellington Lions today at training. Good signs. I feared he sustained a longer term injury in that last round robin game against the Brumbies. Razor will be happy after some of the comments he made about Lakai after his injury, comments that make me think he's high up in Razor's plan leading into the next WC.
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@booboo I fed those names into Chat GTP and asked it if they would be available for the start of the Rugby Championship.
Unavailable for Start of Championship-
^Ofa Tu’ungafasi – Undergoing neck surgery and ruled out for the rest of Super Rugby Pacific, making him unlikely to return by early August oai_citation:0‡SuperSport.
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^Beauden Barrett – Suffered a fractured right hand in early March. Expected 6–8 weeks of recovery, which means he’ll be close to match fitness in May–June; likely fully fit by August oai_citation:1‡RUGBY.com.au oai_citation:2‡SABC Sport oai_citation:3‡RugbyPass.
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^Wallace Sititi – Long-term knee injury still ruling him out.
🟡 Mid-Term/Conditional – Likely Fit by August
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^Josh Lord – “Mid-term” knee concern; unclear timeline but expected back pre-championship.
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^Ethan Blackadder – Quad injury with unspecified timeline, but recovery likely before August.
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^Scott Barrett – Despite recent breaks (missed two tests vs France due to a broken finger), he's training and expected to be match-ready well before the Rugby Championship oai_citation:4‡Reddit oai_citation:5‡Reddit oai_citation:6‡Reuters.
Fit or Uninjured- Scott Barrett, Tamati Williams, Tyrell Lomax, Asafo Aumua, Luke Jacobsen, Peter Lakai, Simon Parker, Reiko Ioane, Caleb Clarke, Stephen Perofeta—all expected to be available once their minor issues settle.
🟢 Summary Table
Player Status Likely Available in August Ofa Tu’ungafasi Out rest of Super Rugby (neck surgery) 
NoBeauden Barrett Fractured hand (6–8 weeks) YesSam Darry Season-ending shoulder NoWallace Sititi Long-term knee NoTyrell Lomax Ankle injury (short-term) YesAsafo Aumua Concussion (returned) YesLuke Jacobsen Minor nose issue YesScott Barrett Broken finger, back in training YesJosh Lord Mid-term knee ProbablyEthan Blackadder Quad injury 
️ LikelyPeter Lakai Fit YesSimon Parker Fit YesReiko Ioane Fit YesCaleb Clarke Minor thigh issue YesStephen Perofeta Calf strain (short) YesTamati Williams Fit Yes
🟢 Final Take
- Definitely unavailable: Tu’ungafasi, Darry, Sititi.
- Uncertain depending on recovery: Blackadder, Lord.
- Likely fit: Beauden Barrett (prior hand issue), Scott Barrett, Lomax, Aumua, Jacobsen, Williams, Parker, Ioane, Clarke, Perofeta, Lakai.
So by early August, most of the squad should be ready—except for the long-term injured trio and two players who are the last to fully recover.
@sparky said in All Blacks 2025:
@booboo I fed those names into Chat GTP and asked it if they would be available for the start of the Rugby Championship.
Unavailable for Start of Championship-
^Ofa Tu’ungafasi – Undergoing neck surgery and ruled out for the rest of Super Rugby Pacific, making him unlikely to return by early August oai_citation:0‡SuperSport.
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^Beauden Barrett – Suffered a fractured right hand in early March. Expected 6–8 weeks of recovery, which means he’ll be close to match fitness in May–June; likely fully fit by August oai_citation:1‡RUGBY.com.au oai_citation:2‡SABC Sport oai_citation:3‡RugbyPass.
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^Wallace Sititi – Long-term knee injury still ruling him out.
🟡 Mid-Term/Conditional – Likely Fit by August
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^Josh Lord – “Mid-term” knee concern; unclear timeline but expected back pre-championship.
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^Ethan Blackadder – Quad injury with unspecified timeline, but recovery likely before August.
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^Scott Barrett – Despite recent breaks (missed two tests vs France due to a broken finger), he's training and expected to be match-ready well before the Rugby Championship oai_citation:4‡Reddit oai_citation:5‡Reddit oai_citation:6‡Reuters.
Fit or Uninjured- Scott Barrett, Tamati Williams, Tyrell Lomax, Asafo Aumua, Luke Jacobsen, Peter Lakai, Simon Parker, Reiko Ioane, Caleb Clarke, Stephen Perofeta—all expected to be available once their minor issues settle.
🟢 Summary Table
Player Status Likely Available in August Ofa Tu’ungafasi Out rest of Super Rugby (neck surgery) NoBeauden Barrett Fractured hand (6–8 weeks) YesSam Darry Season-ending shoulder NoWallace Sititi Long-term knee NoTyrell Lomax Ankle injury (short-term) YesAsafo Aumua Concussion (returned) YesLuke Jacobsen Minor nose issue YesScott Barrett Broken finger, back in training YesJosh Lord Mid-term knee ProbablyEthan Blackadder Quad injury ️ LikelyPeter Lakai Fit YesSimon Parker Fit YesReiko Ioane Fit YesCaleb Clarke Minor thigh issue YesStephen Perofeta Calf strain (short) YesTamati Williams Fit Yes
🟢 Final Take
- Definitely unavailable: Tu’ungafasi, Darry, Sititi.
- Uncertain depending on recovery: Blackadder, Lord.
- Likely fit: Beauden Barrett (prior hand issue), Scott Barrett, Lomax, Aumua, Jacobsen, Williams, Parker, Ioane, Clarke, Perofeta, Lakai.
So by early August, most of the squad should be ready—except for the long-term injured trio and two players who are the last to fully recover.
I see AI can’t spell Jacobson!
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@sparky Sititi had surgery on his ankle, not a knee injury. When I posted a couple of weeks back that he would be in his moon boot for 3 weeks that was directly from him.
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@mariner4life much like the post 2am dancefloor hunt it's no secret I prefer big bodies.
Vaai, Finau and Savea is probably the best we can hope for with the current administration.
But I view with great scepticism stats suggesting Ardie does much at ruck time other than try to be the next person to carry.
@antipodean said in All Blacks 2025:
@mariner4life much like the post 2am dancefloor hunt it's no secret I prefer big bodies.
Vaai, Finau and Savea is probably the best we can hope for with the current administration.
But I view with great scepticism stats suggesting Ardie does much at ruck time other than try to be the next person to carry.
I saw him do a solid clean out on Saturday, so seems he knows how to do it.
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Overall the French series was a success. New players were tried and we got an idea of what some players have to offer.
Holland was a major win. His combination with Tuipulotu and with Vaa'i there at 6 offered a lot. We saw how dominant the lineout and maul could be in the first half of the second test.
The biggest questions are around who will be the loose forwards and who will be center?
Will Savea be 7 or 8 or will he continue to move around mid game?
Savea, Kirifi, Lio Willie, Lakai and Sititi are all a bit too samey so would hope they make a decision on who to back out of those and pick a bit more variety for the remaining positions.
Would suspect that Savea, Sititi and Finau are the first three named in the squad and that the rest will be selected from there.
Can't see someone like Parker coming in with no test experience and no game time. Suspect he will need to get some games under his belt in the NPC to come under consideration for the EOYT.
Papali'i showed he can offer genuine impact off the bench and he helped us dominate possession for the last 10 minutes. Took a clean lineout on the French 5m line. Made a dominant tackle on Taofifenua. Made strong carries and probably scored a try.
Still Papali'i was only in as injury cover so there is that.
Not sure on the injury status of Jacobson or Blackadder or Lakai but suspect that they will be picking 6 from the following:
Savea, Sititi, Finau, Lakai, Kirifi, Lio-Willie, Papali'i, Jacobson and Blackadder.
@brodean said in All Blacks 2025:
Overall the French series was a success. New players were tried and we got an idea of what some players have to offer.
Holland was a major win. His combination with Tuipulotu and with Vaa'i there at 6 offered a lot. We saw how dominant the lineout and maul could be in the first half of the second test.
The biggest questions are around who will be the loose forwards and who will be center?
Will Savea be 7 or 8 or will he continue to move around mid game?
Savea, Kirifi, Lio Willie, Lakai and Sititi are all a bit too samey so would hope they make a decision on who to back out of those and pick a bit more variety for the remaining positions.
Would suspect that Savea, Sititi and Finau are the first three named in the squad and that the rest will be selected from there.
Can't see someone like Parker coming in with no test experience and no game time. Suspect he will need to get some games under his belt in the NPC to come under consideration for the EOYT.
Papali'i showed he can offer genuine impact off the bench and he helped us dominate possession for the last 10 minutes. Took a clean lineout on the French 5m line. Made a dominant tackle on Taofifenua. Made strong carries and probably scored a try.
Still Papali'i was only in as injury cover so there is that.
Not sure on the injury status of Jacobson or Blackadder or Lakai but suspect that they will be picking 6 from the following:
Savea, Sititi, Finau, Lakai, Kirifi, Lio-Willie, Papali'i, Jacobson and Blackadder.
As Lakai was noted as ruled out by injury we can expect him to be added.
I I reckon the decision will come down to the lock situation. If another is added (Darry/Lord), then can see Vaa’i as sixth man, with Kirifi dropping out.
No extra locks and choice for last spot between Kirifi/Lio Willie/Paps/Bladder. Parker and Hoss on edge of discussions.
For me, I’d prefer Lakai and Jacobson seen as punchy 7s and RD and Wally seen as running 8s. Which leaves a need for two big 6s.
So I’d go for Parker if Vaa’i required in engine room. Ah Khoi would also fit the spec.
Luke/Parker/Wally was a nicely balanced unit for Minor Champions.
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@antipodean said in All Blacks 2025:
@mariner4life much like the post 2am dancefloor hunt it's no secret I prefer big bodies.
Vaai, Finau and Savea is probably the best we can hope for with the current administration.
But I view with great scepticism stats suggesting Ardie does much at ruck time other than try to be the next person to carry.
I saw him do a solid clean out on Saturday, so seems he knows how to do it.
@pakman said in All Blacks 2025:
@antipodean said in All Blacks 2025:
@mariner4life much like the post 2am dancefloor hunt it's no secret I prefer big bodies.
Vaai, Finau and Savea is probably the best we can hope for with the current administration.
But I view with great scepticism stats suggesting Ardie does much at ruck time other than try to be the next person to carry.
I saw him do a solid clean out on Saturday, so seems he knows how to do it.
Must've tripped.
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Has there been any word on Hotham's injury from the weekend?
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Has there been any word on Hotham's injury from the weekend?
@Crazy-Horse said in All Blacks 2025:
Has there been any word on Hotham's injury from the weekend?
High ankle sprain
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Sparky's 37 for the Rugby Championship (what I'd pick, not what I think it will be and obviously some guys will drop out if their injuries don't heal in time)
Tamati Williams
Ethan de Groot
Ollie Norris
Tyrell Lomax
Fletcher Newell
Pasilio TosiCodie Taylor
Asafo Aumua
Samisoni Taukei'ahoScott Barrett (c)
Tupou Vaa'i
Patrick Tuipolutu
Fabian Holland
Sam DarrySimon Parker (New Cap)
Samipeni Finau
Ardie Savea
Dalton Papalii
Christian Lio-Willie
Wallace SititiCam Roigard
Cortez Ratima
Noah HothamBeauden Barrett
Damien McKenzie
Rivez Reihana (New Cap)Jordie Barrett
Quinn Tupaea
Timoci Tavatavanawai
Billy Proctor
Anton Leinert-BrownReiko Ioane
Caleb Clarke
Emoni Narawa
Sevu ReeceWill Jordan
Ruben LoveOn Standby:
George Bower, Brodie McAlister, Josh Beehre, Peter Lakai, Folau Fakatava, AJ Lam, Leroy Carter
Not considered: Ofa Tu'ungafasi (out for the season), Caleb Tangitau (needs to show form and fitness), Leicester Fainga'anuku (needs to show some form back in NZ), Riley Higgins (this world ain't ready yet)
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Sparky's 37 for the Rugby Championship (what I'd pick, not what I think it will be and obviously some guys will drop out if their injuries don't heal in time)
Tamati Williams
Ethan de Groot
Ollie Norris
Tyrell Lomax
Fletcher Newell
Pasilio TosiCodie Taylor
Asafo Aumua
Samisoni Taukei'ahoScott Barrett (c)
Tupou Vaa'i
Patrick Tuipolutu
Fabian Holland
Sam DarrySimon Parker (New Cap)
Samipeni Finau
Ardie Savea
Dalton Papalii
Christian Lio-Willie
Wallace SititiCam Roigard
Cortez Ratima
Noah HothamBeauden Barrett
Damien McKenzie
Rivez Reihana (New Cap)Jordie Barrett
Quinn Tupaea
Timoci Tavatavanawai
Billy Proctor
Anton Leinert-BrownReiko Ioane
Caleb Clarke
Emoni Narawa
Sevu ReeceWill Jordan
Ruben LoveOn Standby:
George Bower, Brodie McAlister, Josh Beehre, Peter Lakai, Folau Fakatava, AJ Lam, Leroy Carter
Not considered: Ofa Tu'ungafasi (out for the season), Caleb Tangitau (needs to show form and fitness), Leicester Fainga'anuku (needs to show some form back in NZ), Riley Higgins (this world ain't ready yet)
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@pakman That was a tough call. My heart wanted to pick Peter Lakai, but my head went with CL-W. Slightly bigger unit and he's impressed me a lot with his decision making this year.
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