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All Blacks 2025

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  • MaussM Mauss

    Looking at some numbers across the Robertson Tests (2024-25), I’m honestly pretty stumped at what it exactly is that Robertson wants from his first five. If anyone has more of a clue, here are some statistics which might help you but which have, if anything, confused me more.

    The baseline: Richie Mo at the Saders
    Since Razor has been very explicit about his desire to get Richie Mo’unga back, I took Mo’unga’s performances for the Crusaders in 2022 and ’23 – stats available on RugbyPass and coached by Robertson – as a kind of baseline for both first five output and team direction. Looking at both Mo’unga’s individual contributions (avg. passing, carrying and kicking per game) and the team’s overall numbers (avg. team passing, carrying, kicking, and kick-to-pass ratio per game), you end up with this table.

    d6b497c1-057e-4d76-9e67-4c69d1c1af2f-image.png
    Table: individual passes, carries and kicks, combined with team passing, carrying, kicking and kick-to-pass ratio

    Mo’unga, across these two seasons which both ended up in championships, averaged around 27 passes and 9-ish carries and kicks per game. The Crusaders, as a whole, passed a lot (about 172 passes per game) but also kicked plenty, ending up with about 1 kick for every 5 passes.

    So you’d figure that this is about what Robertson wants to see at Test level: a team that moves the ball around but that doesn’t overplay, making sure to kick often enough in order to play in the right parts of the field and not give their opponents easy scores and momentum.

    The reject: Damian McKenzie
    When looking at the numbers for McKenzie, against this baseline, you get the impression that the Chiefs playmaker was tossed aside because he was unable to stop the team from overplaying.

    08e243f7-a2ed-4578-99ec-5174c11fd4b4-image.png
    McKenzie's 11 starts at 10 during Robertson's tenure: solid averages, inconsistent per-game-outputs

    While McKenzie’s individual passing, carrying and kicking numbers are remarkably consistent with Mo’unga’s, a few games stand out as potential examples of overplaying. The Argentina loss in Wellington, where McKenzie threw 35 passes with the team racking up a 1 to 8.4 kick:pass-ratio. The second South Africa Test where the AB attack kept banging its head into a Springbok defensive wall, without varying up the play. And the near-loss in Sydney, where the team lost complete control against a rampant Wallaby side, with no sign of the first five of being able to change the tide through territorial game management.

    So while McKenzie delivered a near-perfect game against Ireland in Dublin – 27 passes, 13 carries, 11 kicks and a team kick:pass-ratio of 1 to 5.8 – perhaps the coaches had already lost faith in their Invercargill-born first five, unconvinced that he’d be able to repeat these efforts Test after Test.

    But this is about the place where the logic stops.

    The curious case of Beauden Barrett
    Robertson and his coaches decide after the Sydney Test that it’s time for another 10 to have a go and give the reins to then 33-year-old Beauden Barrett for the Wellington rematch against the Wallabies. And while the team ends up comfortable victors, the underlying numbers don’t come closer to the Mo’unga-Crusaders baseline but only drift further and further away from them.

    096cc354-0962-4cf3-8e3d-225d4c9608c3-image.png
    I was expecting to find a healthier kick-to-pass ratio with the decision to go with Barrett. Instead, the opposite took place

    Only 5 kicks against the Wallabies in Wellington, 240 passes against just 16 kicks in Paris and nearly 260 passes for a kick:pass-ratio of 1:8.9 in Dunedin against the French in the first Test of July ’25; this represents less a return to the Crusaders’ template than its near-abandonment. Is this really what Robertson would’ve wanted from both Barrett and the team? It’s hard to imagine this being the case, when looking at both the Crusaders baseline as well as the timing of McKenzie being dropped.

    It is only in his last two Tests – France in Wellington and Argentina in Cordoba – that Barrett has shown an ability to steer the team in a direction away from overplaying, with a serious drop in both total passing and carrying from the ABs in both games. Putting the emphasis on set piece-excellence and back line efficiency, the team’s attacking effectiveness has also skyrocketed, with an astounding rate of 4.5 points per 22 entry in these two Tests. But then again, it is more of an an equivalence of McKenzie’s performance in Dublin rather than its supersession so it only puts into question: why exactly was McKenzie dropped so unceremoniously in the first place?

    Tl;dr
    I honestly don’t really have a clue what’s going on with the first five-position. Logic would dictate that Robertson wants his first fives to play like his own Crusaders 10, Richie Mo’unga. The Crusaders were able to play both with and without the ball, changing it up depending on both their opponent and season’s context, but would end up averaging around 170 passes, 120 carries and 25 kicks, for a ratio of 1 kick for every 5 passes.

    In the All Blacks, neither McKenzie nor Barrett seem capable of reproducing these numbers, the team often overplaying (nearly 200 passes and 140 carries per game) to their own detriment. Both have shown signs of getting it right (McKenzie: SA I 24, IRE 24; Barrett: FRA II 25, ARG I 25) but have also had games where the team clearly lost its way.

    Furthermore, I don’t really have a clue why Barrett is so much preferred at the moment. If I had to guess, I’d say Robertson doesn’t want the position to turn into a merry-go-round, sticking to Barrett in order to avoid further disruption. But it’s an unfortunate situation for McKenzie to be in, with seemingly little chance of actually reclaiming the 10-jersey.

    canefanC Online
    canefanC Online
    canefan
    wrote on last edited by
    #5165

    @Mauss so basically their decisions are illogical. Thanks for backing this idea up Mauss!

    This preoccupation with older players who aren't up to it is frustrating. BB should be in the squad but he is taking minutes away from DMac who could try and convince the coaches that he can be consistent. Christie is a waste of minutes when we could be looking for the next 9 in line. There is a line between consistency of selection and conservativism and IMHO we are over the line at the moment

    MaussM 1 Reply Last reply
    3
    • canefanC canefan

      @Mauss so basically their decisions are illogical. Thanks for backing this idea up Mauss!

      This preoccupation with older players who aren't up to it is frustrating. BB should be in the squad but he is taking minutes away from DMac who could try and convince the coaches that he can be consistent. Christie is a waste of minutes when we could be looking for the next 9 in line. There is a line between consistency of selection and conservativism and IMHO we are over the line at the moment

      MaussM Offline
      MaussM Offline
      Mauss
      wrote on last edited by
      #5166

      @canefan said in All Blacks 2025:

      @Mauss so basically their decisions are illogical.

      Yeah, the big stumbling block for me is McKenzie being dropped after Sydney. It signals two possible scenarios but each of the two makes little sense when taking other things into account.

      Scenario 1: McKenzie was dropped for overplaying
      McKenzie overplayed against the Wallabies, allowing them back into the contest and nearly losing the ABs the game. But if this is the case, why persist with Barrett, who pushes the team into even more passing and carrying? The worry here is that the coaches don't want this overplaying nature within the AB game but can't figure out a way to stop it from occurring.

      Scenario 2: McKenzie was dropped for not playing enough
      Perhaps the coaches wanted to push the attack even further and put Barrett at first five with explicit directions to kick less and move the ball through the hands. Then the switch sort of makes sense. But then you get the Mo’unga-question: why push so hard for a first five who you are familiar with, if your new attack is so different from the one you implemented at the Crusaders?

      Either way, I can’t really figure it out. Like I said in the post above, my guess is they backed themselves into a corner by dropping McKenzie for Barrett, and are now stuck with the latter. Dropping Barrett again would leave you with two dropped first fives and no real alternative.

      So now it’s like that Samuel Beckett play, two guys just aimlessly wandering around until the third one hopefully shows up: Waiting for Richie Mo.

      nzzpN 1 Reply Last reply
      6
      • MaussM Mauss

        Looking at some numbers across the Robertson Tests (2024-25), I’m honestly pretty stumped at what it exactly is that Robertson wants from his first five. If anyone has more of a clue, here are some statistics which might help you but which have, if anything, confused me more.

        The baseline: Richie Mo at the Saders
        Since Razor has been very explicit about his desire to get Richie Mo’unga back, I took Mo’unga’s performances for the Crusaders in 2022 and ’23 – stats available on RugbyPass and coached by Robertson – as a kind of baseline for both first five output and team direction. Looking at both Mo’unga’s individual contributions (avg. passing, carrying and kicking per game) and the team’s overall numbers (avg. team passing, carrying, kicking, and kick-to-pass ratio per game), you end up with this table.

        d6b497c1-057e-4d76-9e67-4c69d1c1af2f-image.png
        Table: individual passes, carries and kicks, combined with team passing, carrying, kicking and kick-to-pass ratio

        Mo’unga, across these two seasons which both ended up in championships, averaged around 27 passes and 9-ish carries and kicks per game. The Crusaders, as a whole, passed a lot (about 172 passes per game) but also kicked plenty, ending up with about 1 kick for every 5 passes.

        So you’d figure that this is about what Robertson wants to see at Test level: a team that moves the ball around but that doesn’t overplay, making sure to kick often enough in order to play in the right parts of the field and not give their opponents easy scores and momentum.

        The reject: Damian McKenzie
        When looking at the numbers for McKenzie, against this baseline, you get the impression that the Chiefs playmaker was tossed aside because he was unable to stop the team from overplaying.

        08e243f7-a2ed-4578-99ec-5174c11fd4b4-image.png
        McKenzie's 11 starts at 10 during Robertson's tenure: solid averages, inconsistent per-game-outputs

        While McKenzie’s individual passing, carrying and kicking numbers are remarkably consistent with Mo’unga’s, a few games stand out as potential examples of overplaying. The Argentina loss in Wellington, where McKenzie threw 35 passes with the team racking up a 1 to 8.4 kick:pass-ratio. The second South Africa Test where the AB attack kept banging its head into a Springbok defensive wall, without varying up the play. And the near-loss in Sydney, where the team lost complete control against a rampant Wallaby side, with no sign of the first five of being able to change the tide through territorial game management.

        So while McKenzie delivered a near-perfect game against Ireland in Dublin – 27 passes, 13 carries, 11 kicks and a team kick:pass-ratio of 1 to 5.8 – perhaps the coaches had already lost faith in their Invercargill-born first five, unconvinced that he’d be able to repeat these efforts Test after Test.

        But this is about the place where the logic stops.

        The curious case of Beauden Barrett
        Robertson and his coaches decide after the Sydney Test that it’s time for another 10 to have a go and give the reins to then 33-year-old Beauden Barrett for the Wellington rematch against the Wallabies. And while the team ends up comfortable victors, the underlying numbers don’t come closer to the Mo’unga-Crusaders baseline but only drift further and further away from them.

        096cc354-0962-4cf3-8e3d-225d4c9608c3-image.png
        I was expecting to find a healthier kick-to-pass ratio with the decision to go with Barrett. Instead, the opposite took place

        Only 5 kicks against the Wallabies in Wellington, 240 passes against just 16 kicks in Paris and nearly 260 passes for a kick:pass-ratio of 1:8.9 in Dunedin against the French in the first Test of July ’25; this represents less a return to the Crusaders’ template than its near-abandonment. Is this really what Robertson would’ve wanted from both Barrett and the team? It’s hard to imagine this being the case, when looking at both the Crusaders baseline as well as the timing of McKenzie being dropped.

        It is only in his last two Tests – France in Wellington and Argentina in Cordoba – that Barrett has shown an ability to steer the team in a direction away from overplaying, with a serious drop in both total passing and carrying from the ABs in both games. Putting the emphasis on set piece-excellence and back line efficiency, the team’s attacking effectiveness has also skyrocketed, with an astounding rate of 4.5 points per 22 entry in these two Tests. But then again, it is more of an an equivalence of McKenzie’s performance in Dublin rather than its supersession so it only puts into question: why exactly was McKenzie dropped so unceremoniously in the first place?

        Tl;dr
        I honestly don’t really have a clue what’s going on with the first five-position. Logic would dictate that Robertson wants his first fives to play like his own Crusaders 10, Richie Mo’unga. The Crusaders were able to play both with and without the ball, changing it up depending on both their opponent and season’s context, but would end up averaging around 170 passes, 120 carries and 25 kicks, for a ratio of 1 kick for every 5 passes.

        In the All Blacks, neither McKenzie nor Barrett seem capable of reproducing these numbers, the team often overplaying (nearly 200 passes and 140 carries per game) to their own detriment. Both have shown signs of getting it right (McKenzie: SA I 24, IRE 24; Barrett: FRA II 25, ARG I 25) but have also had games where the team clearly lost its way.

        Furthermore, I don’t really have a clue why Barrett is so much preferred at the moment. If I had to guess, I’d say Robertson doesn’t want the position to turn into a merry-go-round, sticking to Barrett in order to avoid further disruption. But it’s an unfortunate situation for McKenzie to be in, with seemingly little chance of actually reclaiming the 10-jersey.

        R Offline
        R Offline
        reprobate
        wrote on last edited by
        #5167

        @Mauss said in All Blacks 2025:

        . Both have shown signs of getting it right (McKenzie: SA I 24, IRE 24; Barrett: FRA II 25, ARG I 25)

        A difference here being the quality of the opposition they've been able to get it right against...
        I'd also wonder whether someone chucking it around against Japan or Fiji is as significant?

        1 Reply Last reply
        0
        • MaussM Mauss

          @canefan said in All Blacks 2025:

          @Mauss so basically their decisions are illogical.

          Yeah, the big stumbling block for me is McKenzie being dropped after Sydney. It signals two possible scenarios but each of the two makes little sense when taking other things into account.

          Scenario 1: McKenzie was dropped for overplaying
          McKenzie overplayed against the Wallabies, allowing them back into the contest and nearly losing the ABs the game. But if this is the case, why persist with Barrett, who pushes the team into even more passing and carrying? The worry here is that the coaches don't want this overplaying nature within the AB game but can't figure out a way to stop it from occurring.

          Scenario 2: McKenzie was dropped for not playing enough
          Perhaps the coaches wanted to push the attack even further and put Barrett at first five with explicit directions to kick less and move the ball through the hands. Then the switch sort of makes sense. But then you get the Mo’unga-question: why push so hard for a first five who you are familiar with, if your new attack is so different from the one you implemented at the Crusaders?

          Either way, I can’t really figure it out. Like I said in the post above, my guess is they backed themselves into a corner by dropping McKenzie for Barrett, and are now stuck with the latter. Dropping Barrett again would leave you with two dropped first fives and no real alternative.

          So now it’s like that Samuel Beckett play, two guys just aimlessly wandering around until the third one hopefully shows up: Waiting for Richie Mo.

          nzzpN Online
          nzzpN Online
          nzzp
          wrote on last edited by
          #5168

          @Mauss said in All Blacks 2025:

          Waiting for Richie Mo.

          that's quality. Well done @Mauss

          1 Reply Last reply
          3
          • nzzpN Online
            nzzpN Online
            nzzp
            wrote on last edited by
            #5169

            image.png

            1 Reply Last reply
            9
            • NepiaN Online
              NepiaN Online
              Nepia
              wrote on last edited by
              #5170

              @nzzp 2027 Razor when his pet Super Rugby Superstar fails for a third time:

              https://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2016/05/03/02/33BF1ED800000578-3570036-Blast_from_the_past_Filming_and_the_real_life_shootout_took_plac-a-51_1462239724268.jpg

              1 Reply Last reply
              5
              • sparkyS Offline
                sparkyS Offline
                sparky
                wrote on last edited by
                #5171

                What's Dave Rennie up to?

                JayCeeJ 1 Reply Last reply
                3
                • sparkyS sparky

                  What's Dave Rennie up to?

                  JayCeeJ Offline
                  JayCeeJ Offline
                  JayCee
                  wrote on last edited by
                  #5172

                  @sparky said in All Blacks 2025:

                  What's Dave Rennie up to?

                  Or let's get McMillan back

                  1 Reply Last reply
                  0
                  • Landers92L Offline
                    Landers92L Offline
                    Landers92
                    wrote on last edited by
                    #5173

                    Just watching the breakdown and they are talking about the halfback injury crisis. I can’t believe I’m sitting here in 2025 and I’ve just heard Justin Marshall say that the All Blacks should bring in Mitchell Drummond πŸ˜‚πŸ˜‚πŸ˜‚ how do you even come to that decision. Good god.

                    sparkyS African MonkeyA D 3 Replies Last reply
                    15
                    • Landers92L Landers92

                      Just watching the breakdown and they are talking about the halfback injury crisis. I can’t believe I’m sitting here in 2025 and I’ve just heard Justin Marshall say that the All Blacks should bring in Mitchell Drummond πŸ˜‚πŸ˜‚πŸ˜‚ how do you even come to that decision. Good god.

                      sparkyS Offline
                      sparkyS Offline
                      sparky
                      wrote on last edited by
                      #5174

                      @Landers92 It's not a serious programme. I think it's best enjoyed as a comedy.

                      nzzpN 1 Reply Last reply
                      3
                      • sparkyS Offline
                        sparkyS Offline
                        sparky
                        wrote on last edited by sparky
                        #5175

                        Looking a tough schedule for the next seven games.

                        Two against the world-champion Boks at home.
                        Away and home against a rejuvenated Australia hoping to win the Bledisloe for the first time in 23 years.
                        Ireland in Chicago.
                        Then Scotland in Edinburgh with their Lions backline and their chance to beat us for the first time ever.
                        Then England away.

                        We could end up winning only one or two of those.

                        boobooB 1 Reply Last reply
                        2
                        • sparkyS sparky

                          Looking a tough schedule for the next seven games.

                          Two against the world-champion Boks at home.
                          Away and home against a rejuvenated Australia hoping to win the Bledisloe for the first time in 23 years.
                          Ireland in Chicago.
                          Then Scotland in Edinburgh with their Lions backline and their chance to beat us for the first time ever.
                          Then England away.

                          We could end up winning only one or two of those.

                          boobooB Online
                          boobooB Online
                          booboo
                          wrote on last edited by
                          #5176

                          @sparky said in All Blacks 2025:

                          Looking a tough schedule for the next seven games.

                          Two against the world-champion Boks at home.
                          Away and home against a rejuvenated Australia hoping to win the Bledisloe for the first time in 23 years.
                          Ireland in Chicago.
                          Then Scotland in Edinburgh with their Lions backline and their chance to beat us for the first time ever.
                          Then England away.

                          We could end up winning only one or two of those.

                          Wales on a one game unbeaten streak too...

                          sparkyS MN5M 2 Replies Last reply
                          6
                          • boobooB booboo

                            @sparky said in All Blacks 2025:

                            Looking a tough schedule for the next seven games.

                            Two against the world-champion Boks at home.
                            Away and home against a rejuvenated Australia hoping to win the Bledisloe for the first time in 23 years.
                            Ireland in Chicago.
                            Then Scotland in Edinburgh with their Lions backline and their chance to beat us for the first time ever.
                            Then England away.

                            We could end up winning only one or two of those.

                            Wales on a one game unbeaten streak too...

                            sparkyS Offline
                            sparkyS Offline
                            sparky
                            wrote on last edited by
                            #5177

                            @booboo Which is one more than us currently.

                            boobooB 1 Reply Last reply
                            1
                            • sparkyS sparky

                              @booboo Which is one more than us currently.

                              boobooB Online
                              boobooB Online
                              booboo
                              wrote on last edited by
                              #5178

                              @sparky said in All Blacks 2025:

                              @booboo Which is one more than us currently.

                              You know? That never occurred to me.

                              1 Reply Last reply
                              2
                              • sparkyS Offline
                                sparkyS Offline
                                sparky
                                wrote on last edited by
                                #5179

                                Surely it's bye, bye Beauden time?

                                1 Reply Last reply
                                2
                                • Landers92L Landers92

                                  Just watching the breakdown and they are talking about the halfback injury crisis. I can’t believe I’m sitting here in 2025 and I’ve just heard Justin Marshall say that the All Blacks should bring in Mitchell Drummond πŸ˜‚πŸ˜‚πŸ˜‚ how do you even come to that decision. Good god.

                                  African MonkeyA Offline
                                  African MonkeyA Offline
                                  African Monkey
                                  wrote on last edited by
                                  #5180

                                  @Landers92 said in All Blacks 2025:

                                  Just watching the breakdown and they are talking about the halfback injury crisis. I can’t believe I’m sitting here in 2025 and I’ve just heard Justin Marshall say that the All Blacks should bring in Mitchell Drummond πŸ˜‚πŸ˜‚πŸ˜‚ how do you even come to that decision. Good god.

                                  Hahahahaha please tell me you're joking.

                                  πŸ˜‚πŸ˜‚πŸ˜‚ sorry I needed a good laugh.

                                  1 Reply Last reply
                                  0
                                  • Landers92L Landers92

                                    Just watching the breakdown and they are talking about the halfback injury crisis. I can’t believe I’m sitting here in 2025 and I’ve just heard Justin Marshall say that the All Blacks should bring in Mitchell Drummond πŸ˜‚πŸ˜‚πŸ˜‚ how do you even come to that decision. Good god.

                                    D Offline
                                    D Offline
                                    DurryMexted
                                    wrote on last edited by
                                    #5181

                                    @Landers92 and Jeff Wilson said it should be Dylan Pledger! They literally offer no better insight than any battler at the pub, just pumping the players from their own super rugby sides

                                    African MonkeyA jimmybJ Landers92L 3 Replies Last reply
                                    6
                                    • D DurryMexted

                                      @Landers92 and Jeff Wilson said it should be Dylan Pledger! They literally offer no better insight than any battler at the pub, just pumping the players from their own super rugby sides

                                      African MonkeyA Offline
                                      African MonkeyA Offline
                                      African Monkey
                                      wrote on last edited by
                                      #5182

                                      @DurryMexted said in All Blacks 2025:

                                      @Landers92 and Jeff Wilson said it should be Dylan Pledger! They literally offer no better insight than any battler at the pub, just pumping the players from their own super rugby sides

                                      Sounds like the public/us on the fern (some worse than others here).

                                      1 Reply Last reply
                                      1
                                      • D DurryMexted

                                        @Landers92 and Jeff Wilson said it should be Dylan Pledger! They literally offer no better insight than any battler at the pub, just pumping the players from their own super rugby sides

                                        jimmybJ Online
                                        jimmybJ Online
                                        jimmyb
                                        wrote on last edited by
                                        #5183

                                        @DurryMexted said in All Blacks 2025:

                                        @Landers92 and Jeff Wilson said it should be Dylan Pledger! They literally offer no better insight than any battler at the pub, just pumping the players from their own super rugby sides

                                        One of the best things rugby in general could do is get amateur era rugby players completely away from commentary

                                        1 Reply Last reply
                                        5
                                        • sparkyS sparky

                                          @Landers92 It's not a serious programme. I think it's best enjoyed as a comedy.

                                          nzzpN Online
                                          nzzpN Online
                                          nzzp
                                          wrote on last edited by
                                          #5184

                                          @sparky said in All Blacks 2025:

                                          @Landers92 It's not a serious programme. I think it's best enjoyed as a comedy.

                                          Or a modern art installation

                                          1 Reply Last reply
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