What is decline?
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@Kirwan said in What is decline?:
@antipodean said in What is decline?:
I wonder if the decline is systemic in that so many New Zealanders are playing and coaching OS, so the competition to progress to first class rugby isn't there to the extent it used to be.
I am constantly surprised to see technical deficiencies in players though. How can up and coming scrum halves not model their passing on Aaron Smith? How do backline players not have a Cory fend, Ma'a wide ranging skillset and Dagg like security for the high ball?
But putting that aside, there's the selection ethos of the current coach who shuns outstanding competence in a position for the ability to play multiple? So instead of the bench being a risk management exercise, the entire team is from the loose forwards backwards.
We don't have that many players good enough to play multiple positions to Test standard.
Watch the Bok, Argie and even the Wallabies backline passing. Done at pace, from depth, in front of the player and often running into space.
It's quite the contrast watching us play.
Although the Boks did pass behind the player quite a bit which contributed to their high error rate.
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@No-Quarter Nailed it!
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@nonpartizan said in What is decline?:
Im not sure any other country can score that try. Maybe they could but I think there is still exceptionalism in kiwi rugby with regards to the skills.
Yes we still have a skills edge (and probably always will); but it's tiny now.
Not like two decades ago when it could win us games. Some times by huge margins against teams that were actually quite good.
Now, if we dont get the basics right, the skills edge aint enough to get us out of the shit.
We score one beautiful try, then let in six.But, if we get rock solid in the basics (kicking/catching/set piece etc), then the skills edge (now slight), will continue to provide a point of difference.
That exceptionalism (now arrogance) is the issue, naive to think it's still going to get the job done consistently.Haha, like when we play Fiji, the last thing we do is run out and throw the ball around!
That'd be asking for trouble!No team is ever going to take us on in an up tempo passing game.
If a team ever thought that would work against us, then we really would be in trouble. -
@mohikamo said in What is decline?:
@nonpartizan said in What is decline?:
Im not sure any other country can score that try. Maybe they could but I think there is still exceptionalism in kiwi rugby with regards to the skills.
Yes we still have a skills edge (and probably always will); but it's tiny now.
im not sure we do, our passing is slow and flat footed and tackling sloppy
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@mohikamo said in What is decline?:
@nonpartizan said in What is decline?:
Im not sure any other country can score that try. Maybe they could but I think there is still exceptionalism in kiwi rugby with regards to the skills.
Yes we still have a skills edge (and probably always will); but it's tiny now.
Not like two decades ago when it could win us games. Some times by huge margins against teams that were actually quite good.
Now, if we dont get the basics right, the skills edge aint enough to get us out of the shit.
We score one beautiful try, then let in six.But, if we get rock solid in the basics (kicking/catching/set piece etc), then the skills edge (now slight), will continue to provide a point of difference.
That exceptionalism (now arrogance) is the issue, naive to think it's still going to get the job done consistently.Haha, like when we play Fiji, the last thing we do is run out and throw the ball around!
That'd be asking for trouble!No team is ever going to take us on in an up tempo passing game.
If a team ever thought that would work against us, then we really would be in trouble.Good post. A couple thoughts -
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One thing that clearly needs to be coached at super rugby level and below is winning high balls. V France, South Africa and Argentina it has been exposed as a clear deficiency in the kiwi game. This is indisputable and needs to be fixed. Maybe you even select for it at lower levels ie don't take a single outside back to next year's under 20 world cup who isn't great under the high ball. It has to become an area of emphasis.
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Kiwi diaspora. Surely there is a way to partner with a northern union or a handful of clubs where kiwi coaches and players go on loan to gain experience whilst still being affiliated to the NZR. kind of like an exchange student programme..... Ofc similar to what Jordie just did but even earlier in his career. That way these players and coaches can get exposed to a different rugby environment and be more equipped to play against different styles instead of just the super rugby bubble 24/7. Push players out of their Christchurch/Wellington etc comfort zones and have them learn about rugby and life in a different milieu.
Even if it just half a season, six months or whatever it would prevent from intellectual stagnation that can occur when you are in an echo chamber.
I genuinely think that some of these problems can be solved if you go back to the drawing board and think creatively.
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@Snowy said in What is decline?:
Whilst I agree with all the concern about the loss, and the inconsistent results for quite a few years now, the Boks “declined” to the point where we beat them by 57 points in NZ and 42 points at home within a year.
They seem to have recovered…
A couple of interesting tidbits in relation to that 57 point win to last weekends loss.
- There were 4 All Blacks that played in both matches - BB and DMac started and Scooter and Ardie came off the bench - 4 players that are under the microscope for their performance, decision making, leadership.
- Boks also only had 4 players that played in both tests - Marx, Kolisi, Pollard,, PSDT - 4 players that still appear to be critical to the current Bok setup.
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@Snowy said in What is decline?:
Whilst I agree with all the concern about the loss, and the inconsistent results for quite a few years now, the Boks “declined” to the point where we beat them by 57 points in NZ and 42 points at home within a year.
They seem to have recovered…
True. they got thrashed by the Wallabies by 49-0 in 2006 too and then won the world cup the following year.
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Haha, your talking about just one particular team.
I'm talking about the whole game; down to the under 5s.
That's our intrinsic advantage; we just have to be smart enough to utilise it right thru to the top level of the game.
Used to be easy, not anymore.
There are some teams who see the ABs trying to move the ball; and you can tell they're thinking - beauty, let's smash them! -
@mohikamo said in What is decline?:
Haha, your talking about just one particular team.
I'm talking about the whole game; down to the under 5s.
That's our intrinsic advantage; we just have to be smart enough to utilise it right thru to the top level of the game.
Used to be easy, not anymore.
There are some teams who see the ABs trying to move the ball; and you can tell they're thinking - beauty, let's smash them!are you saying the players at lower levels are more skilled? still have the skill levels of old AB's?
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@nonpartizan said in What is decline?:
Kiwi diaspora. Surely there is a way to partner with a northern union or a handful of clubs where kiwi coaches and players go on loan to gain experience whilst still being affiliated to the NZR. kind of like an exchange student programme..... Ofc similar to what Jordie just did but even earlier in his career. That way these players and coaches can get exposed to a different rugby environment and be more equipped to play against different styles instead of just the super rugby bubble 24/7. Push players out of their Christchurch/Wellington etc comfort zones and have them learn about rugby and life in a different milieu.
A very big deal. In the amateur days virtually all those players and coaches were still in NZ.
But you cant blame them diasporing; 20% of NZ citizens dont live in NZ because they're trying to make a decent quid somewhere else.You are right about NZR.
What ever you think about them they are a NZ entity that is actually world leading.
The NZRU owns the contracts of all the pro players in NZ (about 700) and they should operate like a club.
Export the talent but retain the rights.
Send young players on loan overseas.
Not sure of the exact structure, they call it a sabbatical, but really I think its just a loan agreement.
More of that kind of thing.
Or even buy into a club in a top European competition. -
@Snowy said in What is decline?:
Whilst I agree with all the concern about the loss, and the inconsistent results for quite a few years now, the Boks “declined” to the point where we beat them by 57 points in NZ and 42 points at home within a year.
They seem to have recovered…
But they made tough choices, really tough choices, to turn things around.
I don't see that sort of leadership from anyone involved in New Zealand Rugby at the moment.
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Nah
Saying young NZ players get a skills edge on the rest of the world which they maintain right thru to seniors.
Thats the theory . . .
Used to be a larger edge, but the rest of the world has caught up, and only a slight edge now.
But I maintain it's still there.
That's where we have to get smart; the coaches have to work out a strategy that'll consistently make that small edge game decisive.But if we cant secure our set piece possession and the bombs, it wont matter what the fuck they come up with.
All those skills are practice makes perfect; not intrinsic skills. -
@sparky said in What is decline?:
@Snowy said in What is decline?:
Whilst I agree with all the concern about the loss, and the inconsistent results for quite a few years now, the Boks “declined” to the point where we beat them by 57 points in NZ and 42 points at home within a year.
They seem to have recovered…
But they made tough choices, really tough choices, to turn things around.
I don't see that sort of leadership from anyone involved in New Zealand Rugby at the moment.
I’m sure Bok fans felt the same way in 2017. And yet here we are.
The trouble for NZ is I don’t see someone like Rassie waiting to be brought in. Unless we are talking about Joe Schmidt.
Graham Henry laid the groundwork for the dominance in the 2000s and 2010s. It was his vision and structure (ex head master), and Hansen (people person) and Smith (culture and passion) helped him to deliver it. It all started with selecting the right characters and instilling responsibility and accountability into a new leadership group.
It is now 8 years since the ABs started their decline from the top if people are being honest. The Lions tour. And nobody at the top has sought to really challenge or change anything in the hope that success will just continue for a bit longer.
The Emperor has no clothes. It is ok to say it.
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@antipodean said in What is decline?:
@stodders Mark Robinson has been CEO of NZR since Jan 2020. IMO it's not unreasonable to suggest his tenure has been a catastrophic failure which will take as long again to resolve.
Yep. 100%.
It would be good to know the criteria he was selected against.
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@antipodean said in What is decline?:
@stodders Mark Robinson has been CEO of NZR since Jan 2020. IMO it's not unreasonable to suggest his tenure has been a catastrophic failure which will take as long again to resolve.
Steve Tew was very canny to bow out when he did. He probably saw what was coming.
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@gt12 said in What is decline?:
The rot started in 2017. It's the one question I'd ask Steve Hansen if I met him again - had he quit then, would we have had a better succession plan?
We were fat from success by then. If he left in 2017 as he originally intended, who would NZRU have turned to to succeed him? His assistants were Smith and Foster. I don't think they would have wanted to rock what appeared to be a winning boat, maybe we would have got Foster earlier than otherwise, or maybe Smith would have had another crack at being HC? I don't see them going outside the tent at that stage.
Maybe Razor (who I thought would usher in a new era, but has been exposed as a false prophet) will take us to rock bottom, and someone will come in next time to start from scratch as Henry did?
