Rugby World Cup 2027 Draw

[KiwiMurph]

@booboo said in Rugby World Cup 2027 Draw - LIVE:

Doubt they'll open with Aus v NZ in case we win.

Expect Aus v HK in Perth to open.

Didnt stop them doing France ABs as the last RWC opening game.....

Chile would be more competitive (and more likely) than HK

[akan004]

@Victor-Meldrew said in Rugby World Cup 2027 Draw - LIVE:

@akan004 said in Rugby World Cup 2027 Draw - LIVE:

@stodders said in Rugby World Cup 2027 Draw - LIVE:

Would NZ throw the Oz game to miss playing SA in the QFs?

I would. SA in the QF and France in the SF is the worst draw imaginable. QF exit is looking very likely.

We said that last time. Didn't happen and we almost won the thing.

We'll be fine.

Last time we had an easy semi, which meant that we were primed for the final. We only lost it due to Cane's red and two missed kicks. SA, on the other hand, were running on fumes in that final as a result of a tougher lead up, and were nowhere near their best in that game. The challenge of peaking for three consecutive games against the three best teams in the world shouldn't be underestimated. I have yet to see a team do it.

It's a no-brainer to me. When you have the option of taking the easier route, you always take it.

[Crazy Horse]

@Bones said in Rugby World Cup 2027 Draw - LIVE:

Don't really get the whinging, chances are we still have to beat SA in the final anyway if we end up on the other side, plus beat a team equal to or not far off France (who aren't exactly our bogey team at WCs).

Just fucking get on with it and earn it.

I totally get the whinging, because if we do get through to the final I will be a fucking nervous wreck having to sit through three tough games in a row. Not sure I have the energy.

[Bones]

@Crazy-Horse said in Rugby World Cup 2027 Draw - LIVE:

@Bones said in Rugby World Cup 2027 Draw - LIVE:

Don't really get the whinging, chances are we still have to beat SA in the final anyway if we end up on the other side, plus beat a team equal to or not far off France (who aren't exactly our bogey team at WCs).

Just fucking get on with it and earn it.

I totally get the whinging, because if we do get through to the final I will be a fucking nervous wreck having to sit through three tough games in a row. Not sure I have the energy.

What's the alternative?

I really couldn't give a shit, it's a world cup and the ultimate point is to be better than everyone else.

[Fredsaua12]

@KiwiMurph said in Rugby World Cup 2027 Draw - LIVE:

@booboo said in Rugby World Cup 2027 Draw - LIVE:

Doubt they'll open with Aus v NZ in case we win.

Expect Aus v HK in Perth to open.

Didnt stop them doing France ABs as the last RWC opening game.....

Chile would be more competitive (and more likely) than HK

Yeah but having the HK game in Perth, both countries are in the same time zone and Rugby is growing rapidly in the country there. I'm anticipating that they bank on a lot of Expats taking the flight to Perth to watch especially with some HSBC funding

[kiwiinmelb]

@Chris-B said in Rugby World Cup 2027 Draw - LIVE:

Fuck it!

You're not likely to get easy games in the semis or the final, but getting a soft QF is highly desirable.

Dream draw for England.

Shit draw for us (and SA).

The problem is the type of team we are , inconsistent,

The 2015 team you would back in to win consecutive tough games , this side without trying to be pessimistic, but who would have confidence in them achieving that ? unless something dramatically changes between now and then.

[sparky]

Main positive for me from this draw is that the All Blacks weren't drawn in the same pool as Italy yet again.

[sparky]

@Dodge said in Rugby World Cup 2027 Draw - LIVE:

well we've never been beaten in a world cup game in Australia,

Apart from this one......

[reprobate]

If we get SA in the 1/4s, as things stand right now, that strikes me as a good thing.
We're a decent chance in a one-off game, and the longer the tournament goes the more their superior depth is likely to show. We also tend to get up for one game, then go to shit the next.
Knock them out, then lose in the semi to whoever the fuck: I can't be bothered investigating, but Argentina or Scotland or Fiji would be pretty funny.

[nzzp]

@reprobate said in Rugby World Cup 2027 Draw - LIVE:

Knock them out, then lose in the semi to whoever the fuck: I can't be bothered investigating, but Argentina or Scotland or Fiji would be pretty funny.

France.

Again.

[PN]

modeled the difficulty of each band 1's path to winning the cup based on current rankings:

South Africa – Pool B, reaches final

Route: Pool B → R16 v Uruguay → QF v NZ → SF v Ireland → Final v England

Stage Opponent Opp Rank Opp Rating Difficulty (0–10)
Pool vs Italy Italy 10 78.98 5.7
Pool vs Georgia Georgia 13 73.18 4.1
Pool vs Romania Romania 22 61.50 0.8
R16 vs Uruguay Uruguay 14 69.19 3.0
QF vs New Zealand New Zealand 2 90.33 9.0
SF vs Ireland Ireland 4 87.97 8.3
Final vs England England 3 89.41 8.7

England – Pool F, reaches final

Route: Pool F → R16 v Japan → QF v Australia → SF v France → Final v South Africa

Stage Opponent Opp Rank Opp Rating Difficulty (0–10)
Pool vs Wales Wales 11 74.23 4.4
Pool vs Tonga Tonga 18 66.66 2.2
Pool vs Zimbabwe Zimbabwe 24 58.80 0.0
R16 vs Japan Japan 12 74.09 4.4
QF vs Australia Australia 7 81.53 6.5
SF vs France France 5 87.24 8.1
Final vs S. Africa South Africa 1 93.94 10.0

New Zealand – Pool A, loses in QF to SA

Route: Pool A → R16 v USA → QF v South Africa

Stage Opponent Opp Rank Opp Rating Difficulty (0–10)
Pool vs Australia Australia 7 81.53 6.5
Pool vs Chile Chile 17 66.72 2.3
Pool vs Hong Kong China Hong Kong China 23 59.61 0.2
R16 vs USA USA 16 68.26 2.7
QF vs South Africa South Africa 1 93.94 10.0

Ireland – Pool D, loses in SF to SA

Route: Pool D → R16 v Spain → QF v Argentina → SF v South Africa

Stage Opponent Opp Rank Opp Rating Difficulty (0–10)
Pool vs Scotland Scotland 9 80.22 6.1
Pool vs Uruguay Uruguay 14 69.19 3.0
Pool vs Portugal Portugal 20 64.98 1.8
R16 vs Spain Spain 15 69.01 2.9
QF vs Argentina Argentina 6 84.97 7.5
SF vs South Africa South Africa 1 93.94 10.0

France – Pool E, loses in SF to England

Route: Pool E → R16 v Wales → QF v Scotland → SF v England

Stage Opponent Opp Rank Opp Rating Difficulty (0–10)
Pool vs Japan Japan 12 74.09 4.4
Pool vs USA USA 16 68.26 2.7
Pool vs Samoa Samoa 19 66.42 2.2
R16 vs Wales Wales 11 74.23 4.4
QF vs Scotland Scotland 9 80.22 6.1
SF vs England England 3 89.41 8.7

Argentina – Pool C, loses in QF to Ireland

Route: Pool C → R16 v Georgia → QF v Ireland

Stage Opponent Opp Rank Opp Rating Difficulty (0–10)
Pool vs Fiji Fiji 8 81.14 6.4
Pool vs Spain Spain 15 69.01 2.9
Pool vs Canada Canada 25 58.76 0.0
R16 vs Georgia Georgia 13 73.18 4.1
QF vs Ireland Ireland 4 87.97 8.3

South Africa

Path assumed:
Pool B (Italy, Georgia, Romania) → R16 Uruguay → QF New Zealand → SF Ireland → Final England (win).

Average pool-stage opponent rating:
≈ 71.22 (mid-table Tier-1/Tier-2 mix)

Average KO opponent rating (R16 + QF + SF):
≈ 82.50 (NZ + IRE drags this right up into top-6 territory)

Average difficulty index (0–10) across all pre-final matches:
≈ 5.14 (your original “~5.15”)

England

Path assumed:
Pool F (Wales, Tonga, Zimbabwe) → R16 Japan → QF Australia → SF France → Final South Africa (win in England’s scenario).

Average pool-stage opponent rating:
≈ 66.56 (softest Band-1 pool on this model)

Average KO opponent rating (R16 + QF + SF):
≈ 80.95 (solid: JPN + AUS + FRA)

Average difficulty index (0–10) across all pre-final matches:
≈ 4.26

New Zealand

Path assumed:
Pool A (Australia, Chile, Hong Kong China) → R16 USA → QF South Africa (upset win) → SF Ireland → Final England (win in NZ’s scenario).

Average pool-stage opponent rating:
≈ 69.29

Average KO opponent rating (R16 + QF + SF):
≈ 83.39 (SA + IRE in the KOs is nasty)

Average difficulty index (0–10) across all pre-final matches:
≈ 5.00

Ireland

Path assumed:
Pool D (Scotland, Uruguay, Portugal) → R16 Spain → QF Argentina → SF South Africa (upset win) → Final England (win in Ireland’s scenario).

Average pool-stage opponent rating:
≈ 71.46 (very similar to SA’s pool)

Average KO opponent rating (R16 + QF + SF):
≈ 82.64

Average difficulty index (0–10) across all pre-final matches:
≈ 5.20

France

Path assumed:
Pool E (Japan, USA, Samoa) → R16 Wales → QF Scotland → SF England (upset win) → Final South Africa (win in France’s scenario).

Average pool-stage opponent rating:
≈ 69.59

Average KO opponent rating (R16 + QF + SF):
≈ 81.29

Average difficulty index (0–10) across all pre-final matches:
≈ 4.74

Argentina

Path assumed:
Pool C (Fiji, Spain, Canada) → R16 Georgia → QF Ireland (upset win) → SF South Africa (upset win) → Final England (win in Argentina’s scenario).

Average pool-stage opponent rating:
≈ 69.64

Average KO opponent rating (R16 + QF + SF):
≈ 85.03 (the highest of all Band-1 teams – IRE + SA back-to-back)

Average difficulty index (0–10) across all pre-final matches:
≈ 5.28 (hardest overall run on this scale)

[Catogrande]

@sparky said in Rugby World Cup 2027 Draw - LIVE:

@Dodge said in Rugby World Cup 2027 Draw - LIVE:

well we've never been beaten in a world cup game in Australia,

Apart from this one......

And v Wales

[W32]

@Crazy-Horse said in Rugby World Cup 2027 Draw - LIVE:

@Bones said in Rugby World Cup 2027 Draw - LIVE:

Don't really get the whinging, chances are we still have to beat SA in the final anyway if we end up on the other side, plus beat a team equal to or not far off France (who aren't exactly our bogey team at WCs).

Just fucking get on with it and earn it.

I totally get the whinging, because if we do get through to the final I will be a fucking nervous wreck having to sit through three tough games in a row. Not sure I have the energy.

Its good times. Loved it in 23

[Victor Meldrew]

@akan004 said in Rugby World Cup 2027 Draw - LIVE:

@Victor-Meldrew said in Rugby World Cup 2027 Draw - LIVE:

@akan004 said in Rugby World Cup 2027 Draw - LIVE:

@stodders said in Rugby World Cup 2027 Draw - LIVE:

Would NZ throw the Oz game to miss playing SA in the QFs?

I would. SA in the QF and France in the SF is the worst draw imaginable. QF exit is looking very likely.

We said that last time. Didn't happen and we almost won the thing.

We'll be fine.

Last time we had an easy semi, which meant that we were primed for the final. We only lost it due to to Cane's red and two missed kicks. SA, on the other hand, were running on fumes in that final as a result of a tougher lead up, and were nowhere near their best in that game. The challenge of peaking for three consecutive games against the three best teams in the world shouldn't be underestimated. I have yet to see a team do it.

It's a no-brainer to me. When you have the option of taking the easier route, you always take it.

Head Coach Scott Hansen will have everything sorted out by then, hopefully.

[W32]

Geeze its so long until the next WC things are likely to be way different in the pecking order. As a SA supporter im not expecting another WC win and its likely we will flame out against NZ. Hopefully a test series win in SA next year to assuage what will come at the WC.

[Crazy Horse]

@W32 said in Rugby World Cup 2027 Draw - LIVE:

@Crazy-Horse said in Rugby World Cup 2027 Draw - LIVE:

@Bones said in Rugby World Cup 2027 Draw - LIVE:

Don't really get the whinging, chances are we still have to beat SA in the final anyway if we end up on the other side, plus beat a team equal to or not far off France (who aren't exactly our bogey team at WCs).

Just fucking get on with it and earn it.

I totally get the whinging, because if we do get through to the final I will be a fucking nervous wreck having to sit through three tough games in a row. Not sure I have the energy.

Its good times. Loved it in 23

Maybe I am weird, but I don't actually enjoy it at the time.

[sparky]

@Catogrande The game that England lost 16-3 to Wales in Brisbane at the 1987 RWC was a Quarter Final, not a pool match.

[Tim]

Are the pool games going to be ridiculously spread out again, or over in two weeks? Wake me up for the quarter finals.

World Rugby needs to go.

[sparky]

@Tim The tournament starts on 1st October 2027 and finishes on 13th November 2027 so it looks like it.

[booboo]

@KiwiMurph said in Rugby World Cup 2027 Draw - LIVE:

@booboo said in Rugby World Cup 2027 Draw - LIVE:

Doubt they'll open with Aus v NZ in case we win.

Expect Aus v HK in Perth to open.

Didnt stop them doing France ABs as the last RWC opening game.....

Chile would be more competitive (and more likely) than HK

My conjecture about Hong Kong is down to proximity to Perth, and potential ex-Pat interest.