Rugby World Cup 2027 Draw - LIVE
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If we get SA in the 1/4s, as things stand right now, that strikes me as a good thing.
We're a decent chance in a one-off game, and the longer the tournament goes the more their superior depth is likely to show. We also tend to get up for one game, then go to shit the next.
Knock them out, then lose in the semi to whoever the fuck: I can't be bothered investigating, but Argentina or Scotland or Fiji would be pretty funny. -
@reprobate said in Rugby World Cup 2027 Draw - LIVE:
Knock them out, then lose in the semi to whoever the fuck: I can't be bothered investigating, but Argentina or Scotland or Fiji would be pretty funny.
France.
Again.
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modeled the difficulty of each band 1's path to winning the cup based on current rankings:
South Africa
– Pool B, reaches finalRoute: Pool B → R16 v Uruguay → QF v NZ → SF v Ireland → Final v England
Stage Opponent Opp Rank Opp Rating Difficulty (0–10)
Pool vs Italy Italy 10 78.98 5.7
Pool vs Georgia Georgia 13 73.18 4.1
Pool vs Romania Romania 22 61.50 0.8
R16 vs Uruguay Uruguay 14 69.19 3.0
QF vs New Zealand New Zealand 2 90.33 9.0
SF vs Ireland Ireland 4 87.97 8.3
Final vs England England 3 89.41 8.7England
– Pool F, reaches finalRoute: Pool F → R16 v Japan → QF v Australia → SF v France → Final v South Africa
Stage Opponent Opp Rank Opp Rating Difficulty (0–10)
Pool vs Wales Wales 11 74.23 4.4
Pool vs Tonga Tonga 18 66.66 2.2
Pool vs Zimbabwe Zimbabwe 24 58.80 0.0
R16 vs Japan Japan 12 74.09 4.4
QF vs Australia Australia 7 81.53 6.5
SF vs France France 5 87.24 8.1
Final vs S. Africa South Africa 1 93.94 10.0New Zealand
– Pool A, loses in QF to SARoute: Pool A → R16 v USA → QF v South Africa
Stage Opponent Opp Rank Opp Rating Difficulty (0–10)
Pool vs Australia Australia 7 81.53 6.5
Pool vs Chile Chile 17 66.72 2.3
Pool vs Hong Kong China Hong Kong China 23 59.61 0.2
R16 vs USA USA 16 68.26 2.7
QF vs South Africa South Africa 1 93.94 10.0Ireland
– Pool D, loses in SF to SARoute: Pool D → R16 v Spain → QF v Argentina → SF v South Africa
Stage Opponent Opp Rank Opp Rating Difficulty (0–10)
Pool vs Scotland Scotland 9 80.22 6.1
Pool vs Uruguay Uruguay 14 69.19 3.0
Pool vs Portugal Portugal 20 64.98 1.8
R16 vs Spain Spain 15 69.01 2.9
QF vs Argentina Argentina 6 84.97 7.5
SF vs South Africa South Africa 1 93.94 10.0France
– Pool E, loses in SF to EnglandRoute: Pool E → R16 v Wales → QF v Scotland → SF v England
Stage Opponent Opp Rank Opp Rating Difficulty (0–10)
Pool vs Japan Japan 12 74.09 4.4
Pool vs USA USA 16 68.26 2.7
Pool vs Samoa Samoa 19 66.42 2.2
R16 vs Wales Wales 11 74.23 4.4
QF vs Scotland Scotland 9 80.22 6.1
SF vs England England 3 89.41 8.7Argentina
– Pool C, loses in QF to IrelandRoute: Pool C → R16 v Georgia → QF v Ireland
Stage Opponent Opp Rank Opp Rating Difficulty (0–10)
Pool vs Fiji Fiji 8 81.14 6.4
Pool vs Spain Spain 15 69.01 2.9
Pool vs Canada Canada 25 58.76 0.0
R16 vs Georgia Georgia 13 73.18 4.1
QF vs Ireland Ireland 4 87.97 8.3 South AfricaPath assumed:
Pool B (Italy, Georgia, Romania) → R16 Uruguay → QF New Zealand → SF Ireland → Final England (win).Average pool-stage opponent rating:
≈ 71.22 (mid-table Tier-1/Tier-2 mix)Average KO opponent rating (R16 + QF + SF):
≈ 82.50 (NZ + IRE drags this right up into top-6 territory)Average difficulty index (0–10) across all pre-final matches:
≈ 5.14 (your original “~5.15”) EnglandPath assumed:
Pool F (Wales, Tonga, Zimbabwe) → R16 Japan → QF Australia → SF France → Final South Africa (win in England’s scenario).Average pool-stage opponent rating:
≈ 66.56 (softest Band-1 pool on this model)Average KO opponent rating (R16 + QF + SF):
≈ 80.95 (solid: JPN + AUS + FRA)Average difficulty index (0–10) across all pre-final matches:
≈ 4.26 New ZealandPath assumed:
Pool A (Australia, Chile, Hong Kong China) → R16 USA → QF South Africa (upset win) → SF Ireland → Final England (win in NZ’s scenario).Average pool-stage opponent rating:
≈ 69.29Average KO opponent rating (R16 + QF + SF):
≈ 83.39 (SA + IRE in the KOs is nasty)Average difficulty index (0–10) across all pre-final matches:
≈ 5.00 IrelandPath assumed:
Pool D (Scotland, Uruguay, Portugal) → R16 Spain → QF Argentina → SF South Africa (upset win) → Final England (win in Ireland’s scenario).Average pool-stage opponent rating:
≈ 71.46 (very similar to SA’s pool)Average KO opponent rating (R16 + QF + SF):
≈ 82.64Average difficulty index (0–10) across all pre-final matches:
≈ 5.20 FrancePath assumed:
Pool E (Japan, USA, Samoa) → R16 Wales → QF Scotland → SF England (upset win) → Final South Africa (win in France’s scenario).Average pool-stage opponent rating:
≈ 69.59Average KO opponent rating (R16 + QF + SF):
≈ 81.29Average difficulty index (0–10) across all pre-final matches:
≈ 4.74 ArgentinaPath assumed:
Pool C (Fiji, Spain, Canada) → R16 Georgia → QF Ireland (upset win) → SF South Africa (upset win) → Final England (win in Argentina’s scenario).Average pool-stage opponent rating:
≈ 69.64Average KO opponent rating (R16 + QF + SF):
≈ 85.03 (the highest of all Band-1 teams – IRE + SA back-to-back)Average difficulty index (0–10) across all pre-final matches:
≈ 5.28 (hardest overall run on this scale) -
@sparky said in Rugby World Cup 2027 Draw - LIVE:
@Dodge said in Rugby World Cup 2027 Draw - LIVE:
well we've never been beaten in a world cup game in Australia,
Apart from this one......
And v Wales
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@Crazy-Horse said in Rugby World Cup 2027 Draw - LIVE:
@Bones said in Rugby World Cup 2027 Draw - LIVE:
Don't really get the whinging, chances are we still have to beat SA in the final anyway if we end up on the other side, plus beat a team equal to or not far off France (who aren't exactly our bogey team at WCs).
Just fucking get on with it and earn it.
I totally get the whinging, because if we do get through to the final I will be a fucking nervous wreck having to sit through three tough games in a row. Not sure I have the energy.
Its good times. Loved it in 23
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@akan004 said in Rugby World Cup 2027 Draw - LIVE:
@Victor-Meldrew said in Rugby World Cup 2027 Draw - LIVE:
@akan004 said in Rugby World Cup 2027 Draw - LIVE:
@stodders said in Rugby World Cup 2027 Draw - LIVE:
Would NZ throw the Oz game to miss playing SA in the QFs?
I would. SA in the QF and France in the SF is the worst draw imaginable. QF exit is looking very likely.
We said that last time. Didn't happen and we almost won the thing.
We'll be fine.
Last time we had an easy semi, which meant that we were primed for the final. We only lost it due to to Cane's red and two missed kicks. SA, on the other hand, were running on fumes in that final as a result of a tougher lead up, and were nowhere near their best in that game. The challenge of peaking for three consecutive games against the three best teams in the world shouldn't be underestimated. I have yet to see a team do it.
It's a no-brainer to me. When you have the option of taking the easier route, you always take it.
Head Coach Scott Hansen will have everything sorted out by then, hopefully.
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Geeze its so long until the next WC things are likely to be way different in the pecking order. As a SA supporter im not expecting another WC win and its likely we will flame out against NZ. Hopefully a test series win in SA next year to assuage what will come at the WC.
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@W32 said in Rugby World Cup 2027 Draw - LIVE:
@Crazy-Horse said in Rugby World Cup 2027 Draw - LIVE:
@Bones said in Rugby World Cup 2027 Draw - LIVE:
Don't really get the whinging, chances are we still have to beat SA in the final anyway if we end up on the other side, plus beat a team equal to or not far off France (who aren't exactly our bogey team at WCs).
Just fucking get on with it and earn it.
I totally get the whinging, because if we do get through to the final I will be a fucking nervous wreck having to sit through three tough games in a row. Not sure I have the energy.
Its good times. Loved it in 23
Maybe I am weird, but I don't actually enjoy it at the time.
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@Catogrande The game that England lost 16-3 to Wales in Brisbane at the 1987 RWC was a Quarter Final, not a pool match.
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@KiwiMurph said in Rugby World Cup 2027 Draw - LIVE:
@booboo said in Rugby World Cup 2027 Draw - LIVE:
Doubt they'll open with Aus v NZ in case we win.
Expect Aus v HK in Perth to open.
Didnt stop them doing France ABs as the last RWC opening game.....
Chile would be more competitive (and more likely) than HK
My conjecture about Hong Kong is down to proximity to Perth, and potential ex-Pat interest.
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@Fredsaua12 said in Rugby World Cup 2027 Draw - LIVE:
@KiwiMurph said in Rugby World Cup 2027 Draw - LIVE:
@booboo said in Rugby World Cup 2027 Draw - LIVE:
Doubt they'll open with Aus v NZ in case we win.
Expect Aus v HK in Perth to open.
Didnt stop them doing France ABs as the last RWC opening game.....
Chile would be more competitive (and more likely) than HK
Yeah but having the HK game in Perth, both countries are in the same time zone and Rugby is growing rapidly in the country there. I'm anticipating that they bank on a lot of Expats taking the flight to Perth to watch especially with some HSBC funding
Great minds. #booboo
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Ignoring NZ for a moment - they have absolutely shafted the pool stages. It's clear who will be the top 2 in each pool with possible exceptions for Italy/Georgia and Japan/Samoa.
Some of the best matches in history happened in the pool stages and actually provided some jeopardy with big teams not making out of the pool. England in 2015 (knocked out by Wales), Scotland in 2019 (knocked out by Japan) and Aussie in 23 (knocked out by Fiji/Wales). Now it's just a parade and in some cases beneficial if you lose your game against the other big team in your pool.
Plus the permutations of round of 16 and 1/4s path is way too confusing. Should be able to summarised in 2 sentences.
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@Bones said in Rugby World Cup 2027 Draw - LIVE:
Don't really get the whinging, chances are we still have to beat SA in the final anyway if we end up on the other side, plus beat a team equal to or not far off France (who aren't exactly our bogey team at WCs).
Just fucking get on with it and earn it.
Im with Bonesy here.
With Will Jordan at 15 we are bang in the mix.
