RWC bolters
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At this point of the season I find the speculation about the potential squad composition more interesting than the potential players selection.
Due to the lack of utility players the selectors off this squad will need to have a crystal clear idea which players they are going to be willing to carry if/when they pick up a significant injury early in the tournament and which they will replace immediately.
With that in mind; they will return to four locks (including Barrett) after taking three last tournament, with five (down from six) additional loosies is the mix in the forwards.
There were murmurings of taking two halfbacks last time; I wouldn't be surprised if they look at this again to free up an extra spot to fix the positional inflexibility in the backline. With the M10 Cup running concurrently and jetlag not an issue I would strongly consider going in that direction. If Ben Smith gets dinged up early (older, history of headknocks, etc etc) most mock squads don't provide adequate within-squad coverage aside from DMac which is...uh...not ideal.
It's honestly quite amazing comparing this batch to the 2007 which had intra-squad versatility that respectably covered each backline position three players deep.
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In 2015, the initial squad for the RWC consisted of:
3 hookers
5 props
3 locks
6 loosies
3 halfbacks
3 first five-eighths
4 midfielders (2 second five-eighths and 2 centres)
4 outside backs (2 specialist wings)The number of 10s and outside backs will depend on whether they name Dmac as a first five-eighth, fullback, or utility back, but you'd expect at least two specialist wings again. So Rieko and at least one of Naholo/Bridge. BFA will be a certainty if fit. So adding up the 10s and outside backs (7), there's probably only room for two of Naholo, Bridge and Jordie.
Midfielders: probably four players, Crotty, Goodhue, ALB, and one of SBW/Laumape. Agree it should be Laumape, but ...
Halfbacks select themselves.
Lock/loosie will be interesting: will they count S Barrett as a lock or a loosie. Combined there should be 7 spots. Certainties are Retallick, S Whitelock, S Barret, A Savea, Read. Cane is a big question. Will he be fit enough in time? Will he come back as the quality player from before his broken neck. Todd will be in the conversation. The 6 jersey is the big question. S Barrett can play there; they might consider Cane for that spot, too.
Props: we need at least 2 LH and 2 TH, and preferably one that can play both (Ofa). So probably Moody, Franks, Laulala, Ofa and ... Tu'inukuafe?
Hookers: Taylor and Coles are certainties, if fit. I'm afraid Harris will be picked, too. It will be hard for any other hooker to play himself into the squad. I'd like them to try Makalio during the TRC, but don't think it will happen.
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Positional inflexibility? I think we are ok in that area. Quite possibly will have a 10/15, a 15/10, a 15/14, a 15/14 that everyone tells me should be a 12, two 12/13s (Crotty and ALB).
Only thing missing is a 9/10 and the closest we have had to one of those in yonks was Weepu. DMac could do that against a minnow anyway. -
@Stargazer DMac will be the third first five - even though he may actually be the starting fullback.
There's no-one else close and even if e.g. Black or Ioane has an standout Super seasons it's too late to give them any test rugby.
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Positional inflexibility? I think we are ok in that area. Quite possibly will have a 10/15, a 15/10, a 15/14, a 15/14 that everyone tells me should be a 12, two 12/13s (Crotty and ALB).
Only thing missing is a 9/10 and the closest we have had to one of those in yonks was Weepu. DMac could do that against a minnow anyway. -
Positional inflexibility? I think we are ok in that area. Quite possibly will have a 10/15, a 15/10, a 15/14, a 15/14 that everyone tells me should be a 12, two 12/13s (Crotty and ALB).
Only thing missing is a 9/10 and the closest we have had to one of those in yonks was Weepu. DMac could do that against a minnow anyway.@Crucial said in RWC bolters:
Positional inflexibility? I think we are ok in that area. Quite possibly will have a 10/15, a 15/10, a 15/14, a 15/14 that everyone tells me should be a 12, two 12/13s (Crotty and ALB).
I think that is a strong argument for the match day 23's ability to cover adequately at a pinch. They have had decent experience this cycle with the amount of yellows which our backs have been earning.
In the examples you have suggested Smith obviously is world class in either role, and the centres are adequately covered (perhaps even too much mix and match opportunities) but Barrett starting at 15 (in his first test ever AND creating a bigger hole at 10 than you have filled at 15) is not flexibility.
The 14 backs in the 2007 squad by contrast probably made up the 3 best players in the country for each backline position and who had actually played substantial test rugby recently at those respective positions.
Perhaps a lot of it comes down to how much you rate Mckenzie (I don't), but there is a very real chance we won't even be able to select the second best player in the country for one of the back three positions simply due to not having a viable 15/13 or another genuinely flexible 14/15 or 10/15.
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@Crucial said in RWC bolters:
Positional inflexibility? I think we are ok in that area. Quite possibly will have a 10/15, a 15/10, a 15/14, a 15/14 that everyone tells me should be a 12, two 12/13s (Crotty and ALB).
I think that is a strong argument for the match day 23's ability to cover adequately at a pinch. They have had decent experience this cycle with the amount of yellows which our backs have been earning.
In the examples you have suggested Smith obviously is world class in either role, and the centres are adequately covered (perhaps even too much mix and match opportunities) but Barrett starting at 15 (in his first test ever AND creating a bigger hole at 10 than you have filled at 15) is not flexibility.
The 14 backs in the 2007 squad by contrast probably made up the 3 best players in the country for each backline position and who had actually played substantial test rugby recently at those respective positions.
Perhaps a lot of it comes down to how much you rate Mckenzie (I don't), but there is a very real chance we won't even be able to select the second best player in the country for one of the back three positions simply due to not having a viable 15/13 or another genuinely flexible 14/15 or 10/15.
@rotated said in RWC bolters:
@Crucial said in RWC bolters:
Positional inflexibility? I think we are ok in that area. Quite possibly will have a 10/15, a 15/10, a 15/14, a 15/14 that everyone tells me should be a 12, two 12/13s (Crotty and ALB).
I think that is a strong argument for the match day 23's ability to cover adequately at a pinch. They have had decent experience this cycle with the amount of yellows which our backs have been earning.
In the examples you have suggested Smith obviously is world class in either role, and the centres are adequately covered (perhaps even too much mix and match opportunities) but Barrett starting at 15 (in his first test ever AND creating a bigger hole at 10 than you have filled at 15) is not flexibility.
The 14 backs in the 2007 squad by contrast probably made up the 3 best players in the country for each backline position and who had actually played substantial test rugby recently at those respective positions.
Perhaps a lot of it comes down to how much you rate Mckenzie (I don't), but there is a very real chance we won't even be able to select the second best player in the country for one of the back three positions simply due to not having a viable 15/13 or another genuinely flexible 14/15 or 10/15.
How did we go in 2007?
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I'm not advocating BB to start at 15 at all, just pointing out that he is class at both meaning flexibility during games should it be needed. Means we can do a 5/3 bench with a 9/10/midfielder which counters the need for a midfield/outside back such as Kahui (and to a lesser extent SBW in 2015). I would also back ALB to slot in at 14 if required.
I guess I'm just not sure what this extra flexibility is that you are after. Oh, and there is no chance that a fit Ben Smith doesn't play in the big games. -
@rotated said in RWC bolters:
@Crucial said in RWC bolters:
Positional inflexibility? I think we are ok in that area. Quite possibly will have a 10/15, a 15/10, a 15/14, a 15/14 that everyone tells me should be a 12, two 12/13s (Crotty and ALB).
I think that is a strong argument for the match day 23's ability to cover adequately at a pinch. They have had decent experience this cycle with the amount of yellows which our backs have been earning.
In the examples you have suggested Smith obviously is world class in either role, and the centres are adequately covered (perhaps even too much mix and match opportunities) but Barrett starting at 15 (in his first test ever AND creating a bigger hole at 10 than you have filled at 15) is not flexibility.
The 14 backs in the 2007 squad by contrast probably made up the 3 best players in the country for each backline position and who had actually played substantial test rugby recently at those respective positions.
Perhaps a lot of it comes down to how much you rate Mckenzie (I don't), but there is a very real chance we won't even be able to select the second best player in the country for one of the back three positions simply due to not having a viable 15/13 or another genuinely flexible 14/15 or 10/15.
How did we go in 2007?
@Crucial said in RWC bolters:
How did we go in 2007?
By that logic we should take Read out back and break his foot and make him play on because that worked in 2011? Not saying either is ideal just pointing out that both are extremes.
FWIW had they survived that injury toll in Cardiff and moved onto the semi-final they would have been able to pick an experienced side with ease (and without replacements). This year's side would be decimated and a sitting duck.
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@Crucial said in RWC bolters:
How did we go in 2007?
By that logic we should take Read out back and break his foot and make him play on because that worked in 2011? Not saying either is ideal just pointing out that both are extremes.
FWIW had they survived that injury toll in Cardiff and moved onto the semi-final they would have been able to pick an experienced side with ease (and without replacements). This year's side would be decimated and a sitting duck.
@rotated said in RWC bolters:
@Crucial said in RWC bolters:
How did we go in 2007?
By that logic we should take Read out back and break his foot and make him play on because that worked in 2011? Not saying either is ideal just pointing out that both are extremes.
FWIW had they survived that injury toll in Cardiff and moved onto the semi-final they would have been able to pick an experienced side with ease (and without replacements). This year's side would be decimated and a sitting duck.
Nah, unless your whole theory is based around having Mils and Rangi as centre options.
Our 2015 squad was probably less flexible than the likely 2019 one and the sky didn't fall on them. -
@Stargazer said in RWC bolters:
@Crucial TJP, too
Yeah he played 10 last Canes game at the end, right?
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@dogmeat said in RWC bolters:
This reminds me I need to write up my notes from Foxy last year.
Bridge in Naholo out
I'm coming around to George but see him as a Ben Smith replacement not a Naholo one.
We may still be after one outside back but Bridge/JB/Smith is way too samey with only Ioane as a 'power' option. Naholo may make it by default as I can't see many others out there. -
@booboo said in RWC bolters:
Robinson at 6?
I thought he played really well in the first two rounds but his performance against the Jaguares was poor
His workrate in defence dropped off significantly and he turned over a shitload of ball. He also tried that silly tap back to the fullback when he could’ve easily gotten two hands to it.
The drop in output is not a surprise, it's his first real year of being a professional. I don't think he's anywhere near ready for Test rugby
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Bolters - Bryn Hall, Bridge and Will Jordan. That would make a strong starting XV.
Moody
Taylor
Franks
Whitelock
Romano
S. Barrett
Todd
Read
Hall
Mo’unga
Bridge
Crotty
Goodhue
Havilli
Jordan@ACT-Crusader said in RWC bolters:
Bolters - Bryn Hall, Bridge and Will Jordan. That would make a strong starting XV.
Moody
Taylor
Franks
Whitelock
Romano
S. Barrett
Todd
Read
Hall
Mo’unga
Bridge
Crotty
Goodhue
Havilli
JordanYou forgot about Reece and Ennor.
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Back on topic. Lots of work ons still for them. But Shannon Frizzell,Dalton Papali'i, George Bridge and Will Jordan have all started the season well. Possible bolters if they keep improving.
@sparky said in RWC bolters:
Back on topic. Lots of work ons still for them. But Shannon Frizzell,Dalton Papali'i, George Bridge and Will Jordan have all started the season well. Possible bolters if they keep improving.
Will Jordan got injured but the other three made the Rugby Championship AB squad.
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@sparky said in RWC bolters:
Back on topic. Lots of work ons still for them. But Shannon Frizzell,Dalton Papali'i, George Bridge and Will Jordan have all started the season well. Possible bolters if they keep improving.
Will Jordan got injured but the other three made the Rugby Championship AB squad.
