Investing - Property/Shares
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@MajorRage said in Investing - Property/Shares:
@mariner4life said in Investing - Property/Shares:
Can someone explain to me how suddenly Tesla is worth more than every other car company combined?
It’s the battery tech, not the cars.
Bingo - Tesla isn't a car company, it is a tech company that makes cars.
Throw in the massive missteps by companies like Volkswagen and the refusal of some OEM to change rapidly (looking at Toyota and their "self-charging" hybrids), and it is not beyond complete insanity to put Tesla at the top of the pile by a long way.
Particularly in a carbon-constrained market, and before all the legislation forced changes.
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@NTA they're not that much far in front of everyone else. Chinese battery tech is bloody good. Hyundai make good electric cars. Tesla is a mini bubble
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@mariner4life said in Investing - Property/Shares:
@NTA they're not that much far in front of everyone else. Chinese battery tech is bloody good. Hyundai make good electric cars. Tesla is a mini bubble
No, probably not any more at a purely technical level, but Tesla have been doing it for a decade now, and don't suffer the political strains of Chinese companies.
Or their reputation. "Hey mate, nice Ford Ranger" versus "Great Wall, huh? Riiiiiight..."
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@NTA said in Investing - Property/Shares:
@mariner4life said in Investing - Property/Shares:
@NTA they're not that much far in front of everyone else. Chinese battery tech is bloody good. Hyundai make good electric cars. Tesla is a mini bubble
No, probably not any more at a purely technical level, but Tesla have been doing it for a decade now, and don't suffer the political strains of Chinese companies.
Or their reputation. "Hey mate, nice Ford Ranger" versus "Great Wall, huh? Riiiiiight"
They are the Apple Computer of the car world right now. Kid of geeky cool to have one
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@canefan said in Investing - Property/Shares:
@NTA NIO is making waves on the US stock market now, they are coming
And no doubt they'll do well along with XPeng who are turning out some sexy cars. But trust is a big thing and large sections of the American market look at Asian cars with suspicion. That's why I think Rivian and Ford will do well with their pickups.
Throw in China's reputation for embedding suspect chipsets for remote control/data access, and, well...
But we're OT right now and the Mods are eager to append all this to the EV thread
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Anyway, back to shares n shit:
How does the KiwiSaver thing work in terms of where it is invested?
Is it similar to Oz? For example, here I choose my Super fund manager (BT for example) and can even tell the financial adviser both where the balance of funds should sit in terms of risk, and also how the individual tranches are structured e.g. put this much in cash and then split the rest here, here, and there.
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@NTA bunch of different providers and with each (all?) you have a range of low, medium, and high risk options for investment. I don't actually know how widely provider options vary, really should look into it more.
I know you can change your split for further contributions, but I haven't tried to move existing investment from one bucket to another.
Recommendations on KiwiSaver providers welcome
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@mariner4life said in Investing - Property/Shares:
Can someone explain to me how suddenly Tesla is worth more than every other car company combined?
Can't sleep due to a few things so decided to pop down and give you my thoughts on what has happened here. I'm out of "the game" now so don't follow the metrics anymore, but bubbles like this one are usually backed up by some substance. Not the sort of substance that gives them any sort of valuation where they are now, but piece of shit companies don't have bubbles of this length. Basically here is what happens.
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The stock is hot due to what it does, not due to the way its run. This effectively means that a shitload of knowledgable investors are short it. Tesla was no different here, with it routinely on the heaviest shortest lists. I've no idea if this is still the case, but I'd imagine the really big HF (like 10bill plus) were likely to hold significant shorts 18 months ago
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Bubble begins based something which gives it momentum - could be anything. Tesla's was basically making profits and starting to approach S&P500 inclusion.
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Suddenly you have a shit ton of shorters losing loads ... and they must cover due to their risk management models. Usually based on position sizes (a 5% short becomes a 10% short when the stock doubles etc) but also due to the chance of a bubble. Basically a short squeeze. And because they are buying it to cover their shorts .... it pushes it up further.
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Retail funds which disclose holdings (which due to reporting laws is now basically all of them) realise they need a position in it to attract investments. Especially when the stock story is interesting and appeals to current trends. Zero emission is quite the trend ...
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Retail brokers have seen it before so they start pumping it. Suddenly everybody wants it in their pension funds, in their pots .... stock keeps rising
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In this case, Tesla then got included in the S&P500. So what happens then? All ETF's, trackers, index linked funds .. HAVE To buy it at any price. It's hard to overestimate just how much buying this is.
4 & 5 can start at any point ... they are more often than not what happens at point 2 but are generally what accelerates the growth.
Where we are now with Tesla is somewhere up the curve. Now that it's in the S&P 500, it has a fair bit of downside protection - billions of dollars worth of holders will never sell it. It's such a fairytale at the moment, I honestly can't see how it stops. Bad news gets buried quickly, good news just keeps coming. They're cars can be utter shit, it doesn't matter.
My view on the cars, as a car nut, is that the are actually quite shit. The handling is average at best, the wear on them is horrific, and they date really badly. They go like shit off a shovel off the mark though, and they are extremely trendy. If you compare a 2014 Model S to pretty much so any similar priced model of that year, the Tesla looks the worst.
But the tech in them is fucking amazing. And you've gotta remember in the world we live in now, fuck all people are car nuts. The youth gave up cars about 10-15 years ago, and they are now entering that period where they have the most expendable cash (well not in NZ due to the house price surge) and they don't give a fuck about Porsche, Ferrari etc. It's all about image, it's all about a car that has technology, and its' all about running it from your phone. Basically, it's a Tesla.
So if you've got balls, buy it, go deep. It could be 10k in 5 years, it could be where it is now, it could be 100 if something goes really tits up. I'd say it's more likely to be 10k, but what would I know. I'm the world's worst investor.
Oh, it may be worth also looking at the future of electricity. It's something that seems to have gone un noticed that I'd look into. What will x million electric cars do to power supply?
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@mariner4life said in Investing - Property/Shares:
@NTA they're not that much far in front of everyone else. Chinese battery tech is bloody good. Hyundai make good electric cars. Tesla is a mini bubble
and with the rumours that apple and hyundai are going to get into bed together for an electric car this space will be interesting, increased Hyundai share price 20% when they just said they were talking..
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@NTA said in Investing - Property/Shares:
Throw in the massive missteps by companies like Volkswagen and the refusal of some OEM to change rapidly (looking at Toyota and their "self-charging" hybrids), and it is not beyond complete insanity to put Tesla at the top of the pile by a long way.
Looking to go plug-in hybrid or all electric this year. The most realistic options are Kia or Hyundai. May go for an eNiro but there's a 6-12 month waiting list for some models. Nothing really available from Germany unless you're looking at £60k+ - but loads of "visions" of possible future cars.
Imagine situation will change in the next 12 months or so.
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@canefan said in Investing - Property/Shares:
@taniwharugby said in Happiness Scale:
@Snowy yeah doing the numbers I think we could handle it financially, but I just dont htink I want the headache, plenty of variables, including P...think I'll just keep smashing away on my mortgage and chucking money at my kiwisaver for now.
You could get a manager to manage a property for you. I know it costs but it takes away the stress and hassle
That’s what I’ve got for my rental. I’m fucked if I’m gonna muck around sorting a leaky tap or new washing machine !
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@MN5 said in Investing - Property/Shares:
@canefan said in Investing - Property/Shares:
@taniwharugby said in Happiness Scale:
@Snowy yeah doing the numbers I think we could handle it financially, but I just dont htink I want the headache, plenty of variables, including P...think I'll just keep smashing away on my mortgage and chucking money at my kiwisaver for now.
You could get a manager to manage a property for you. I know it costs but it takes away the stress and hassle
That’s what I’ve got for my rental. I’m fucked if I’m gonna muck around sorting a leaky tap or new washing machine !
Yeah, If you have too much stuff to worry about, it can seriously affect your happiness level. Apart from decent wine, where the opposite applies.
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@Victor-Meldrew Or institutionals surfing the sentiment of fans to the top of the market. I wouldn't be buying to hold. Such profit as it has had are due largely to the sale of EV regulatory credits as far as I can see. Selling them is pure profit. But I'm not sure its a sustainable business model.
As far as battery tech is concerned there seems to be other players like StoreDot who have more promising results:
StoreDot | Charging the EV lifestyle
StoreDot is a pioneer of extreme fast charging (XFC) EV batteries that overcome the critical barrier to mainstream EV adoption – range and charging anxiety.
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@MajorRage said in Investing - Property/Shares:
My view on the cars, as a car nut, is that the are actually quite shit. The handling is average at best, the wear on them is horrific, and they date really badly. They go like shit off a shovel off the mark though, and they are extremely trendy. If you compare a 2014 Model S to pretty much so any similar priced model of that year, the Tesla looks the worst.
I've seen a few reviews of the Model 3 versus something Euro in the same area (like an M3) and generally it is competitive in the reviewer's eyes.
A fair few also say the Model 3 is well ahead of the Model S in terms of overall performance and handling. Must be the weight - around 500kg lighter than the S across each model.
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@MajorRage I made your final point to my 10yr old daughter a week or so ago as she admired some wealthy friends of ours and their new Model X.
Here in good old Straya, I said, we still get 75% of our power from coal. So they are probably actually adding to our emissions rather than reducing them...
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@mariner4life said in Investing - Property/Shares:
Can someone explain to me how suddenly Tesla is worth more than every other car company combined?
FOMO. There's literally no other reason for the stock price.
Anyone thinking their battery technology is worth such a ridiculous valuation is ignoring that most of the IP is actually owned by their partners and smaller university backed companies are doing more interesting, ground breaking things.
The EPS of the stock is ludicrous. It's like muppets think Tesla is going to dominate the automobile industry. Now that all the other real manufacturers are stepping into the EV market, Tesla will remain a niche for people who don't know what quality is.
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@NTA said in Investing - Property/Shares:
@voodoo said in Investing - Property/Shares:
So they are probably actually adding to our emissions rather than reducing them...
You of all people on here should know that simply isn't true
Ha ha, was certainly being a bit facetious - and these friends have actually gone the whole hog with solar panels, battery and charging station, so they're doing their part. But also good to get her thinking, and understanding that an EV is only part of the solution. Especially at 200k per pop...
