Foster's Firsts.
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The Stuff's final stat article, so long and good riddance. With a win rate inflated by smashing Island Nations during covid, and Ozzie at its lowest for years
When you break down Foster’s record, there were clear struggles against the other sides currently ranked in the top four, with losing head-to-heads against each of South Africa (3-4), Ireland (2-3) and France (0-2), for a meagre 38% return.
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I also see many have become "Fosterized" as well like a frog in an ever-increasing bowl of heating water. "Experts" on the Breakdown saying the days of AB dominance are over and the new norm of thinking it is all right to pick 3 No.7s and people out of position in predicted 2024 AB teams.
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For me, I think Fozzie will go down as a "nearly" man.
He didn't need a lot more to go down as a good coach of the All Blacks. Arguably, he only needed Jordie to kick that penalty and we had our noses in front in a 14 on 14 game with 7 minutes left in a RWC Final. Us with momentum and, I think, more in the gas tank. He nearly got to ride into the sunset with his middle finger in the air. But, in the harsh light of day, he - and his players - did not get it done.
It finished, a bit the way it started. Fozzie's first game in charge was an unexpected draw vs Australia. The game where Rieko dropped the ball over the line, which likely would have seen us kick clear and win. The next week we beat them comfortably - 27-7 - but, Fozzie's reign had started on the wrong foot and he never quite managed to right it - until the RWC quarterfinal.
Along the way, a couple of somewhat (with all due respect) inexplicable losses to Argentina. Both times rapidly avenged by thumping them the following week, but the damage was done. A final 10 minutes capitulation to England. Games that could have pushed him towards the (somewhat unrealistic in this day and age) 80 percent pass mark All Black fans seem to demand. On the other hand, he needed a very friendly time-wasting call on Bernard Foley, not to lose one (and lose the RC) against Oz (though that game should have been put to bed much earlier).
Some mitigation on the first half of his tenure. The recruitment process where the various candidates had to apply as pre-formed coaching teams ("The Deans Legacy") was misguided, at best - dumb as fuck in reality. Closed off recruiting the best assistants left Fozzie with Plumtree, Mooar and McLeod and I think that was proven to be a fair way short of optimal. We definitely looked better with Schmidt and Ryan on board.
At the end of the day, Fozzie probably came up about 20 points short of a good tenure. If he'd won the World Cup, much would have been forgiven. If he'd won the Ireland series (2-1), we would have stomached dropping one at home. The two draws could and probably should have been won. And winning at least one of the Argentina losses.
Fine margins and all that. Nearly!
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A lot of it was his own stubborn fault. Refusing to get better assistants as he would up skill them. Until change was forced on him by NZR, fucking lucky that Schmidt was available. Refusing to see players in their best position or the best player. Until forced by injury (jordie, front row, etc). Refusing too change the way they defended until over half way through his reign. Sticking with the flat spin it wide attack for far too long. We still had our shit kicking game which he never moved on from. Refusing to drop players. He was obviously popular, but fuck me he never, or was very slow, to learn his oft repeated learnings.
Too fucking stubborn to ever admit he got it wrong
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@Chris-B There are winners and losers. Some people have it in them to win the biggest events, and some don't. Cane doesn't as a captain as we saw in the SR final and the RWC final.
Same with Foster, as Machpants said he's too stubborn and incompetent to recognise his mistakes and implement change. It's stupid to give these kind of people positions of power when all they know is failure. You have to select winners.
Its a shame too because I believe this was the cycle where we had the strongest chance of winning the RWC with still a few greats left in the team. Not sure if the player pool will be as strong going forward, only time will tell.
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@Chris-B I think the final was probably a summary of the team under him in the past 4 years.
Poor discipline, lack of composure, poor decision making mixed with some excellent rugby, doing enough to win the game, but not quite finishing what was started.
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@akan004 There's something in that - winners and losers - but, it doesn't always hold true. 2007 a case in point. Beaver in 2011.
I don't think Fozzie and Cane were fated to lose that final. We had an awful lot of people in our team who are proven winners. If you take Jordie, for instance - he potentially had the winning of the game in his hands. He didn't make the kick - but, a couple of weeks earlier, it's him who saves the day by holding up the Irishman (and maybe he did it earlier in this game as well? Him or Beaudy).
I certainly don't think we had the luck on the day - starting with the weather.
But, maybe with a different coach and captain we storm to the title. I think we had at least as much talent in our team as we had in 2011 - especially once Danny Boy went down.
It will certainly be interesting to see whether Razor's stardust ends up making Fozzie look like Toddy Blackadder.
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First All Blacks coach to lose a World Cup Final by a single point.
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@taniwharugby said in Foster's Firsts.:
@Chris-B I think the final was probably a summary of the team under him in the past 4 years.
Poor discipline, lack of composure, poor decision making mixed with some excellent rugby, doing enough to win the game, but not quite finishing what was started.
I think this is what is and has been so frustrating - this tournament showed that actually we did have the cattle (despite being told for years that we didn’t). I do think with better coaching over the previous 4 years the team would have won that match.
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@junior said in Foster's Firsts.:
@taniwharugby said in Foster's Firsts.:
@Chris-B I think the final was probably a summary of the team under him in the past 4 years.
Poor discipline, lack of composure, poor decision making mixed with some excellent rugby, doing enough to win the game, but not quite finishing what was started.
I think this is what is and has been so frustrating - this tournament showed that actually we did have the cattle (despite being told for years that we didn’t). I do think with better coaching over the previous 4 years the team would have won that match.
Did we have the cattle? Or did the coach get a performance out of them greater than the sum of the parts?
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@booboo said in Foster's Firsts.:
@junior said in Foster's Firsts.:
@taniwharugby said in Foster's Firsts.:
@Chris-B I think the final was probably a summary of the team under him in the past 4 years.
Poor discipline, lack of composure, poor decision making mixed with some excellent rugby, doing enough to win the game, but not quite finishing what was started.
I think this is what is and has been so frustrating - this tournament showed that actually we did have the cattle (despite being told for years that we didn’t). I do think with better coaching over the previous 4 years the team would have won that match.
Did we have the cattle? Or did the coach get a performance out of them greater than the sum of the parts?
You most definitely had and have the cattle
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@booboo said in Foster's Firsts.:
@junior said in Foster's Firsts.:
@taniwharugby said in Foster's Firsts.:
@Chris-B I think the final was probably a summary of the team under him in the past 4 years.
Poor discipline, lack of composure, poor decision making mixed with some excellent rugby, doing enough to win the game, but not quite finishing what was started.
I think this is what is and has been so frustrating - this tournament showed that actually we did have the cattle (despite being told for years that we didn’t). I do think with better coaching over the previous 4 years the team would have won that match.
Did we have the cattle? Or did the coach get a performance out of them greater than the sum of the parts?
LOL
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@booboo said in Foster's Firsts.:
@junior said in Foster's Firsts.:
@taniwharugby said in Foster's Firsts.:
@Chris-B I think the final was probably a summary of the team under him in the past 4 years.
Poor discipline, lack of composure, poor decision making mixed with some excellent rugby, doing enough to win the game, but not quite finishing what was started.
I think this is what is and has been so frustrating - this tournament showed that actually we did have the cattle (despite being told for years that we didn’t). I do think with better coaching over the previous 4 years the team would have won that match.
Did we have the cattle? Or did the coach get a performance out of them greater than the sum of the parts?
The cards suggest our discipline could have been better.
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Agreed. Quite often lack of discipline is down to muddled thinking and that is usually down to a poor game plan. Guys not knowing what page they are on.
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@junior said in Foster's Firsts.:
I think this is what is and has been so frustrating - this tournament showed that actually we did have the cattle (despite being told for years that we didn’t). I do think with better coaching over the previous 4 years the team would have won that match.
If that's true (I'm not convinced it is - other countries seem to have have better player development) - then surely we should look forward to pre-Foster 40-50+ points shellackings of the Boks and France on a regular basis and comfortably win RWC 2027?
If we do have the cattle, then anything less would indicate the coaching hasn't much improved since 2019.
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Yeah but other teams also have the cattle. Boks, France, Ireland have many very good players too. Boks and Ireland are also very well coached, albeit in different styles.
France are, well, France.
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@Victor-Meldrew you have made your bed and are sticking to it, fair enough.
I know your 40 point comment was tongue in cheek but as we know at the elite level it is the little things that can turn a 1 point loss into a 1 point win, and this is where we have fallen over so often the past 4 years or more even.
I have banged the opposite drum to you, that we did have the cattle but Fozzie just wasnt pushing the right buttons with his players.
We have long joked about the powder dry thing, but it would appear Fozzie had been building to the RWC.
There were subtle changes this year and for periods in many games things clicked, and those little things worked and the much vaunted Boks, French and Irish struggled...problem was, these new things still weren't instinct, and when the heat came on they struggled to stick in thier patterns.
So I absolutely believe we had the cattle to win, and based on some of the rugby we played this year, we actually had the coaching team too, but reckon things still weren't quite there, maybe another year or so...probably the biggest issue under Fosters tenure and even just prior when Hansen had talked about giving him more control, has been lack of discipline, so many cards in the past 5 or so years...
Sure, the players should take the heat for the dumb action, but there was obviously something else not quite right for players to keep making mistakes leading to cards.
Anywhoo, fuck all this looking back now, look forward, with all these retirements we could be in for another ride...
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@Catogrande said in Foster's Firsts.:
Yeah but other teams also have the cattle. Boks, France, Ireland have many very good players too.
Exactly my point. I find the argument that NZ will always have a superior talent pool both wrong and, well, arrogant.
IMHO, we need to look carefully at how the likes of France & Oireland have developed their top level players.
