All Blacks 2024
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@Chris as I see it atm, if we are selecting 7 loose forwards I'd hope Razor's loose forward mix will look something like the below. I've given each player a percentage of what I think their chances of being selected are right now, assuming Razor will pick a few Crusaders players even though they've been mostly ordinary all year.
Certainties
- Ardie Savea - coming back from Japan. Chances of being selected - 100%
- Samipeni Finau - his physical attributes will be hard to ignore - Chances of being selected - 100%
- Hoskins Sotutu - has really upped his work-rate this year, he's too hard to ignore. Chances of being selected - 100%
- Dalton Papali'i - his form has been great this year. Chances of being selected - 100%
- Ethan Blackadder - he's gods gift and one of Blackadder's favourite players. Chances of being selected - 100%
In the frame
- Peter Lakai - has been one of the strongest carriers in Super Rugby and has the physical attributes to be a superb international loose forward, may be too early for him though. Chances of being selected - 60%
- Christian Lio-Willie - had a great game last week but he needs to show that against better teams. High work-rate and that's what Razor likes. Chances of being selected - 60%
- Brayden Iose - has been dynamite this year but hit a road block last week against the Brums. He offers so much x-factor off the back of the scrum and could be a weapon coming off the bench as an impact player. Chances of being selected - 60%
- Luke Jacobsen - was completely outplayed a couple weeks ago against the Canes but has very strong leadership skills. Has opportunity to play his way into the mixer with a few more strong performances to finish out the Super season. Chances of being selected - 50%
- Billy Harmon - was on my AB radar at the beginning of the season but the Highlanders form has probably impacted his form somewhat. Still a guy I'd pick for the ABs. I'd have him over Cane. Chances of being selected - 40%
- Cullen Grace - has plenty of support from inside the Crusaders so wouldn't be surprised if he was selected, I just don't see it though. He simply hasn't been good enough IMO. Far too inconsistent. Chances of being selected - 30%
- Brad Shields - he's been awesome for the Canes and he's probably the other physical 6 that can match Finau. Age will be against him here though. Chances of being selected - 20%
- Du Plessis Kirifi - had a chance to stake a claim against the Brumbies but didn't perform to the standard expected. Chances of being selected - 20%
- Devan Flanders - has all the attributes for international rugby but probably lacks a little bit of physicality to stake a claim for an AB just yet. If he can mature and become more physical he could be a mainstay in the ABs by the World Cup. Chances of being selected - 20%
- Hugh Renton - started off the season in great nick and was probably the best Highlanders player before getting injured. Needs to show that he can play for a lengthy period without breaking down. Chances of being selected - 10%
- Wallace Sititi - 100% a player of the future but probably a little too young for me. Chances of being selected - 10%
Dead and buried.
- Sam Cane - the All Blacks need to move on from Cane IMO, he no longer warrants automatic selection for me. Chances of being selected - 10%
- Akira Ioane - another player that's far too inconsistent. Drifts in and out of games far too often and won't be a guy that Robertson will even think about TBH. His inability to perform in big games previously will haunt him. Chances of being selected - 10%
The 7 players that I think will be picked by for the squad against England.
- Ardie Savea (Hurricanes)
- Samipeni Finau (Chiefs)
- Hoskins Sotutu (Blues)
- Dalton Papali'i (Crusaders)
- Ethan Blackadder (Crusaders)
- Christian Lio-Willie (Crusaders) - gets in over Brayden Iose because Razor has worked with him before.
- Peter Lakai (Hurricanes)
I agree with a lot of those selections and thoughts on most of the players.
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In addition to the above, the 7 loosies that I think will be selected for the All Blacks XV are:
- Brayden Iose (Hurricanes)
- Billy Harmon (Highlanders)
- Devan Flanders (Hurricanes)
- Brad Shields (Hurricanes)
- Luke Jacobsen (Chiefs)
- Cullen Grace (Crusaders)
- Du Plessis Kirifi (Hurricanes)
This shows we have great depth in NZ atm.
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just so i am clear, it is your contention that, of the 13 best loose forwards in the country (plus one overseas), 5 of them are currently at the Hurricanes, 2 of them are at the Blues, 2 of them are at the Chiefs, 3 of them are at the Crusaders, and 1 is at the Highlanders?
And you are convinced that the coaches will also see what you see?
Just so i am clear
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just so i am clear, it is your contention that, of the 13 best loose forwards in the country (plus one overseas), 5 of them are currently at the Hurricanes, 2 of them are at the Blues, 2 of them are at the Chiefs, 3 of them are at the Crusaders, and 1 is at the Highlanders?
And you are convinced that the coaches will also see what you see?
Just so i am clear
@mariner4life yes, that's how I see it right now based on the form of players atm. I saw it quite differently at the start of the season and I will probably see it differently towards the end of the season as players get put under pressure come playoff time. If you see my initial post there are now 15 players, I've included Renton and Sititi aswell.
Just to be clear on the above, it's essentially a list of players I think Razor should go for, not necessarily what he will actually pick. For example someone like Grace who I don't think warrants selection might actually have a very high chance based on what Razor's said about him previously.
What this does show is that there is plenty of depth in our loose forward stocks atm, definitely not an area we should be worried about.
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My main concern is our lack of depth at 10. Getting BB back now appears to be a masterstroke by razor as the vast, echoing expanse from DMac to the next best cab off the ranks is now reaching grand canyon proportions.
No-one has really put their hand up this year which is dissapointing.
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@Victor-Meldrew said in All Blacks 2024 - looking forward:
Worked for Frizzell and Mo'unga and the loyalty paid off at RWC.
No it fucking didn't. The flake returned to his flake ways and we all lost money.
@Nepia said in All Blacks 2024 - looking forward:
@Victor-Meldrew said in All Blacks 2024 - looking forward:
Worked for Frizzell and Mo'unga and the loyalty paid off at RWC.
No it fucking didn't. The flake returned to his flake ways and we all lost money.
Yeah, one OKish game in his entire AB career and then fucked off overseas. That coupled with his assault charges makes him one of the worst investments any AB coach has made in a player.
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@Nepia said in All Blacks 2024 - looking forward:
@Victor-Meldrew said in All Blacks 2024 - looking forward:
Worked for Frizzell and Mo'unga and the loyalty paid off at RWC.
No it fucking didn't. The flake returned to his flake ways and we all lost money.
Yeah, one OKish game in his entire AB career and then fucked off overseas. That coupled with his assault charges makes him one of the worst investments any AB coach has made in a player.
@No-Quarter I dunno - TTT has repaid years of selection in AB camps and coaching under arguably our best ever halfback by bursting his way into the Chiefs development team.
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I'd wager Tom Christie is a better chance to make the ABs than some of those Hurricanes loose forwards.
@Bovidae said in All Blacks 2024 - looking forward:
I'd wager Tom Christie is a better chance to make the ABs than some of those Hurricanes loose forwards.
If we name Blackadder (6), Christie (7) and Grace (8) I’m going to open a bottle of wine and enjoy the shit fight here.
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@Bovidae said in All Blacks 2024 - looking forward:
I'd wager Tom Christie is a better chance to make the ABs than some of those Hurricanes loose forwards.
If we name Blackadder (6), Christie (7) and Grace (8) I’m going to open a bottle of wine and enjoy the shit fight here.
@gt12 Save a seat for me please and pour me a glass while you're at it.
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My main concern is our lack of depth at 10. Getting BB back now appears to be a masterstroke by razor as the vast, echoing expanse from DMac to the next best cab off the ranks is now reaching grand canyon proportions.
No-one has really put their hand up this year which is dissapointing.
@Windows97 said in All Blacks 2024 - looking forward:
My main concern is our lack of depth at 10.
I was concerned to read last week that using Havili as the backup 1st 5 for the Crusaders was after conversations with the AB coaches.
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@Windows97 said in All Blacks 2024 - looking forward:
My main concern is our lack of depth at 10.
I was concerned to read last week that using Havili as the backup 1st 5 for the Crusaders was after conversations with the AB coaches.
@Bovidae said in All Blacks 2024 - looking forward:
I was concerned to read last week that using Havili as the backup 1st 5 for the Crusaders was after conversations with the AB coaches.
If the AB's are serious about him covering ten he needs to start there for the Crusaders in a few games. That would make more sense to happen before Burke gets back
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@Windows97 said in All Blacks 2024 - looking forward:
My main concern is our lack of depth at 10.
I was concerned to read last week that using Havili as the backup 1st 5 for the Crusaders was after conversations with the AB coaches.
@Bovidae said in All Blacks 2024 - looking forward:
@Windows97 said in All Blacks 2024 - looking forward:
My main concern is our lack of depth at 10.
I was concerned to read last week that using Havili as the backup 1st 5 for the Crusaders was after conversations with the AB coaches.
That's truely horrifying, nothing against Havili - he's only doing what he's been asked to do but my goodness. Is the cupboard really that bare??
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@Bovidae said in All Blacks 2024 - looking forward:
@Windows97 said in All Blacks 2024 - looking forward:
My main concern is our lack of depth at 10.
I was concerned to read last week that using Havili as the backup 1st 5 for the Crusaders was after conversations with the AB coaches.
That's truely horrifying, nothing against Havili - he's only doing what he's been asked to do but my goodness. Is the cupboard really that bare??
@Windows97 said in All Blacks 2024 - looking forward:
Is the cupboard really that bare??
Probably?
McKenzie & Barrett will be in the squad
3rd spot is likely between Perofeta and Cameron. Neither is demanding selection. After that you're into the utilities Havili & Plummer
Also you have to think about what happens if there's a couple of injuries. We're two injuries away from having to take big risks at 10
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@Bovidae said in All Blacks 2024 - looking forward:
@Windows97 said in All Blacks 2024 - looking forward:
My main concern is our lack of depth at 10.
I was concerned to read last week that using Havili as the backup 1st 5 for the Crusaders was after conversations with the AB coaches.
That's truely horrifying, nothing against Havili - he's only doing what he's been asked to do but my goodness. Is the cupboard really that bare??
Not really, we have five players available who have been capped and play first five, including three of the top four from recent AB squads.
One of those should be nowhere near an AB team, but the others are all reasonable choices. Dmac should be easily the first choice. We are fine.
Add in Plummer, Love, and even Burke (if available for this year) and we aren’t in bad shape.
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Not really, we have five players available who have been capped and play first five, including three of the top four from recent AB squads.
One of those should be nowhere near an AB team, but the others are all reasonable choices. Dmac should be easily the first choice. We are fine.
Add in Plummer, Love, and even Burke (if available for this year) and we aren’t in bad shape.
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Top two are good. A few injuries and we're in trouble
Are you including Josh Ioane as an option? I think he's a long way away from Test standard right now
In reality, we have only lost Mo’unga and (soon) Burke.
Ioane is the player who I suggested should be nowhere near the frame, however he is still here and is available.
But not counting him we still have arguably the player who should have been at 10 last year anyway, and at least one acceptable backup.
We are in the year(s) early to bring through new options so I think we want an extra space to trial players.
I’m not 100% against Havili there but I think we have at least three who are reasonable other choices.
I’m not concerned about 10, anyway. I’m much more worried about lock, 9, backup midfield.
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Just to follow up, doesn’t it seem strange that Burke is leaving now? He has a clear run at the jersey that has provided the AB10 for most of the last 20 years, with a coach that knows him.
My speculation is that he knew that Razor would be pushing to get overseas players selected and saw himself getting squeezed out. Either that or he got the quiet word?
In other news, I also saw chat this week on social media that Sullivan could be a target for the Saders for next year. Apparently off contract.
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Just to follow up, doesn’t it seem strange that Burke is leaving now? He has a clear run at the jersey that has provided the AB10 for most of the last 20 years, with a coach that knows him.
My speculation is that he knew that Razor would be pushing to get overseas players selected and saw himself getting squeezed out. Either that or he got the quiet word?
In other news, I also saw chat this week on social media that Sullivan could be a target for the Saders for next year. Apparently off contract.
@gt12 said in All Blacks 2024 - looking forward:
My speculation is that he knew that Razor would be pushing to get overseas players selected and saw himself getting squeezed out. Either that or he got the quiet word?
It's not that shocking of a situation
With Barrett and DMac still around Burke is at best pushing for the 3rd string AB 10 spot.
There's also the real possibility Mo'unga returns during the World Cup cycle.
Given all of the above plus Burke having a significant injury so is barely playing Super Rugby this year it's hardly surprising he has taken big money overseas plus still has the ability to play international rugby with either England or Scotland.
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Hopefully we shouldn't read too much into Razor allegedly talking with the Crusaders about Havili at 10. His body of work in that position is minimal and it's not unreasonable for Razor to want a look given our resources. FWIW, I' d hate to see Havili at 10 for the ABs unless there are exceptional circumstances. Jeez I don't even like him there for the Saders, but I am softening to that idea this season.
