All Blacks 2024
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Richard Knowler runs his eye over the likely AB squad based on form
@Canes4life said in All Blacks 2024 - looking forward:
Richard Knowler runs his eye over the likely AB squad based on form
If that's based on form, then I'm surprised Funaki isn't in the no.9 mix.
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My personal 'barometer' (with the numbers actually adding up correctly, unlike Richard Knowler's random percentages):
Hookers
Codie Taylor - 100%
Samisoni Taukei'aho - 100%
Asafo Aumua - 100%Props
Ethan de Groot - 100%
Tyrel Lomax - 100%
Fletcher Newell - 100%
Tamaiti Williams - 80%
Ofa Tu'ungafasi - 60%
Xaver Numia - 50%
George Bower - 50%
George Dyer - 10%Locks
Scott Barrett - 100%
Tupou Vaa'i - 100%
Quinten Strange - 80%
Sam Darry - 50%
Naitoa Ah Kuoi - 30%
Isaia Walker-Leawere - 20%
Jamie Hannah - 20%Loose forwards
Ardie Savea - 100%
Dalton Papali'i - 100%
Samipeni Finau - 70%
Ethan Blackadder - 60%
Hoskins Sotutu - 50%
Christian Lio-Willie - 50%
Peter Lakai - 50%
Luke Jacobson - 40%
Brayden Iose - 30%Halfbacks
Finlay Christie - 80%
TJ Perenara - 80%
Cortez Ratima - 50%
Taufa Funaki - 40%
Folau Fakatava - 30%
Noah Hotham - 20%First fives
Damian McKenzie - 100%
Beauden Barrett - 100%
Harry Plummer - 30%
Cam Millar - 10%Midfield
Jordie Barrett - 100%
Anton Lienert-Brown - 100%
Rieko Ioane - 100%
Billy Proctor - 70%
David Havili - 15%
Quinn Tupaea - 10%
Rameka Poihipi - 5%Outside backs
Mark Tele'a - 100%
Sevu Reece - 100%
Ruben Love - 100%
Caleb Clarke - 80%
Emoni Narawa - 60%
Etene Nanai-Seturo - 20%Note: I've assumed Patrick Tuipulotu is unavailable but that Xavier Numia is fit for the series.
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@Duluth said in All Blacks 2024 - looking forward:
Did you forget Sotutu or are you giving him 0%?
Whoops - forgot him. I think it's probably 50/50 whether he gets the call up. On the one hand, he's in career-best form. On the other hand, whenever he's been in career-best form in the past he's not transferred that to Test rugby and the selectors never trusted him against the bigger teams, so not sure what exactly has changed.
Dropped Blackadder, Lio-Willie, Lakai, Jacobson and Iose all down 10% to accommodate.
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The whole barometer system is a bit random. Players who have been injured for a couple of weeks are excluded, as are guys who are based overseas. It's fine if you're just talking about potential selections but everyone knows that Ardie Savea is going to be in the squad and that changes the make-up of the loose forwards. It also feels fairly reactive, which I suppose is necessary if you want to change the squad up every two weeks. Ultimately, 75 per cent of the squad could have been predicted at the start of the season by every Tom, Dick and Harry.
@Mr-Fish said in All Blacks 2024 - looking forward:
The whole barometer system is a bit random. Players who have been injured for a couple of weeks are excluded, as are guys who are based overseas. It's fine if you're just talking about potential selections but everyone knows that Ardie Savea is going to be in the squad and that changes the make-up of the loose forwards. It also feels fairly reactive, which I suppose is necessary if you want to change the squad up every two weeks. Ultimately, 75 per cent of the squad could have been predicted at the start of the season by every Tom, Dick and Harry.
Pretty sure Richard Knowler knows this, but he wants to get half a dozen barometer articles out of the Super season - and he won't get paid if he just recycles the same names from article 1. Excluding Ardie and Beauden allows him to chuck in an extra couple of randoms.
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My personal 'barometer' (with the numbers actually adding up correctly, unlike Richard Knowler's random percentages):
Hookers
Codie Taylor - 100%
Samisoni Taukei'aho - 100%
Asafo Aumua - 100%Props
Ethan de Groot - 100%
Tyrel Lomax - 100%
Fletcher Newell - 100%
Tamaiti Williams - 80%
Ofa Tu'ungafasi - 60%
Xaver Numia - 50%
George Bower - 50%
George Dyer - 10%Locks
Scott Barrett - 100%
Tupou Vaa'i - 100%
Quinten Strange - 80%
Sam Darry - 50%
Naitoa Ah Kuoi - 30%
Isaia Walker-Leawere - 20%
Jamie Hannah - 20%Loose forwards
Ardie Savea - 100%
Dalton Papali'i - 100%
Samipeni Finau - 70%
Ethan Blackadder - 60%
Hoskins Sotutu - 50%
Christian Lio-Willie - 50%
Peter Lakai - 50%
Luke Jacobson - 40%
Brayden Iose - 30%Halfbacks
Finlay Christie - 80%
TJ Perenara - 80%
Cortez Ratima - 50%
Taufa Funaki - 40%
Folau Fakatava - 30%
Noah Hotham - 20%First fives
Damian McKenzie - 100%
Beauden Barrett - 100%
Harry Plummer - 30%
Cam Millar - 10%Midfield
Jordie Barrett - 100%
Anton Lienert-Brown - 100%
Rieko Ioane - 100%
Billy Proctor - 70%
David Havili - 15%
Quinn Tupaea - 10%
Rameka Poihipi - 5%Outside backs
Mark Tele'a - 100%
Sevu Reece - 100%
Ruben Love - 100%
Caleb Clarke - 80%
Emoni Narawa - 60%
Etene Nanai-Seturo - 20%Note: I've assumed Patrick Tuipulotu is unavailable but that Xavier Numia is fit for the series.
@Mr-Fish you think fakatava has been so bad hes gone from semi incumbent to 30%?
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@Duluth said in All Blacks 2024 - looking forward:
Did you forget Sotutu or are you giving him 0%?
Whoops - forgot him. I think it's probably 50/50 whether he gets the call up. On the one hand, he's in career-best form. On the other hand, whenever he's been in career-best form in the past he's not transferred that to Test rugby and the selectors never trusted him against the bigger teams, so not sure what exactly has changed.
Dropped Blackadder, Lio-Willie, Lakai, Jacobson and Iose all down 10% to accommodate.
@Mr-Fish said in All Blacks 2024 - looking forward:
whenever he's been in career-best form in the past he's not transferred that to Test rugby and the selectors never trusted him against the bigger teams, so not sure what exactly has changed
this argument gets thrown around about a lot of players, and i think it is really unfair.
A lot of the "fringe" guys over the past couple of years have only been given sporadic opportunities, often after playing nothing for an extended period of time. A guy like Sotutu might get a game here or there at best, because the last coaching group, rightly or wrongly, played the same guys when ever they are available (not unreasonable given tests are about winning, and there was often nice spacing of games). Vaai is in teh same boat, at best he's the fourth lock, so he doesn't exactly get a lot of shots at it.
Only the very very best arrive in test rugby and instantly look to the manor born. Most need time to work it out. So many guys, especially in certain positions, just never get that time, and get written off for it.
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Sotutu also has a the problem of being a specialist. He's one of the few loosies in NZ that genuinely only plays one position. He doesn't even get moved late in games
That counts against him if he's not a starter. It's more disruptive to fit a guy like that on the bench.
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@Duluth said in All Blacks 2024 - looking forward:
Did you forget Sotutu or are you giving him 0%?
Whoops - forgot him. I think it's probably 50/50 whether he gets the call up. On the one hand, he's in career-best form. On the other hand, whenever he's been in career-best form in the past he's not transferred that to Test rugby and the selectors never trusted him against the bigger teams, so not sure what exactly has changed.
Dropped Blackadder, Lio-Willie, Lakai, Jacobson and Iose all down 10% to accommodate.
@Mr-Fish Lakai at 10%, you're kidding right. He's well in the frame.
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@Mr-Fish Lakai at 10%, you're kidding right. He's well in the frame.
@Canes4life said in All Blacks 2024 - looking forward:
@Mr-Fish Lakai at 10%, you're kidding right. He's well in the frame.
I have him at 50%?
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@Canes4life said in All Blacks 2024 - looking forward:
@Mr-Fish Lakai at 10%, you're kidding right. He's well in the frame.
I have him at 50%?
@Mr-Fish said in All Blacks 2024 - looking forward:
@Canes4life said in All Blacks 2024 - looking forward:
@Mr-Fish Lakai at 10%, you're kidding right. He's well in the frame.
I have him at 50%?
dude, it's caners, anything less than 300% is a mortal insult that can only be rectified with a duel
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@Canes4life said in All Blacks 2024 - looking forward:
@Mr-Fish Lakai at 10%, you're kidding right. He's well in the frame.
I have him at 50%?
@Mr-Fish I'd switch Lio-Willie and Lakai around. The only reason Lio-Willie is really in the conversation is because he's a Crusader. Realistically Jacobsen, Lakai and Iose should have more of a chance of making it on form, especially now Ioane is leaving.
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Jimmy Tupou haha. Shows the benefit of being in a winning team eh. A 31-yead-old battler and gets a mention. Give me our big boy Oli Haig anytime.
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Jimmy Tupou haha. Shows the benefit of being in a winning team eh. A 31-yead-old battler and gets a mention. Give me our big boy Oli Haig anytime.
@SouthernMann said in All Blacks 2024 - looking forward:
Shows the benefit of being in a winning team eh
bro didn't Frizzell the lessor get the 6 jersey from your bench?
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@SouthernMann said in All Blacks 2024 - looking forward:
Shows the benefit of being in a winning team eh
bro didn't Frizzell the lessor get the 6 jersey from your bench?
@mariner4life said in All Blacks 2024 - looking forward:
@SouthernMann said in All Blacks 2024 - looking forward:
Shows the benefit of being in a winning team eh
bro didn't Frizzell the lessor get the 6 jersey from your bench?
Was an incumbent already though. He did come good at the World Cup too
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@Mr-Fish I'd switch Lio-Willie and Lakai around. The only reason Lio-Willie is really in the conversation is because he's a Crusader. Realistically Jacobsen, Lakai and Iose should have more of a chance of making it on form, especially now Ioane is leaving.
@Canes4life said in All Blacks 2024 - looking forward:
@Mr-Fish I'd switch Lio-Willie and Lakai around. The only reason Lio-Willie is really in the conversation is because he's a Crusader.
That's not accurate. He's been the form Saders loose forward this season by some distance. The problem he faces is the same as Sotutu that @Duluth mentioned - he's a specialist that needs to demand selection. He hasn't been as good as Sotutu so...
Realistically Jacobsen, Lakai and Iose should have more of a chance of making it on form, especially now Ioane is leaving.
Finau is the standout blindside who'll be here next year.
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@Canes4life said in All Blacks 2024 - looking forward:
@Mr-Fish I'd switch Lio-Willie and Lakai around. The only reason Lio-Willie is really in the conversation is because he's a Crusader.
That's not accurate. He's been the form Saders loose forward this season by some distance. The problem he faces is the same as Sotutu that @Duluth mentioned - he's a specialist that needs to demand selection. He hasn't been as good as Sotutu so...
Realistically Jacobsen, Lakai and Iose should have more of a chance of making it on form, especially now Ioane is leaving.
Finau is the standout blindside who'll be here next year.
@antipodean Lio-Willie has been inconsistent, he's had some great games this year mixed in with a few shitters. He's an AB XV player for me because he hasn't been as good as either Sotutu or Iose.
Finau is 100% in for me, he's our only genuine 6 option, just hope he starts showing that ruthless defence on bigger players rather than small tens.
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@mariner4life said in All Blacks 2024 - looking forward:
@SouthernMann said in All Blacks 2024 - looking forward:
Shows the benefit of being in a winning team eh
bro didn't Frizzell the lessor get the 6 jersey from your bench?
Was an incumbent already though. He did come good at the World Cup too
@SouthernMann said in All Blacks 2024 - looking forward:
@mariner4life said in All Blacks 2024 - looking forward:
@SouthernMann said in All Blacks 2024 - looking forward:
Shows the benefit of being in a winning team eh
bro didn't Frizzell the lessor get the 6 jersey from your bench?
Was an incumbent already though. He did come good at the World Cup too
Pretty sure Frizell made the ABs from the Highlanders bench in first year - i.e. before he was an incumbent.
Not sure getting carded early in the World Cup Final is 'coming good'
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@SouthernMann said in All Blacks 2024 - looking forward:
@mariner4life said in All Blacks 2024 - looking forward:
@SouthernMann said in All Blacks 2024 - looking forward:
Shows the benefit of being in a winning team eh
bro didn't Frizzell the lessor get the 6 jersey from your bench?
Was an incumbent already though. He did come good at the World Cup too
Pretty sure Frizell made the ABs from the Highlanders bench in first year - i.e. before he was an incumbent.
Not sure getting carded early in the World Cup Final is 'coming good'
@KiwiMurph he did..."from the bench" slightly over simplifies things as theyer were mainly rotating through loosies opponent specific, but yea, he wasnt the regular starter at 6 when he made the AB's
...and not sure i agree he came good either, 1.5 good games isnt a good strike rate
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@antipodean Lio-Willie has been inconsistent, he's had some great games this year mixed in with a few shitters. He's an AB XV player for me because he hasn't been as good as either Sotutu or Iose.
Finau is 100% in for me, he's our only genuine 6 option, just hope he starts showing that ruthless defence on bigger players rather than small tens.
@Canes4life I'm not suggesting Lio-Willie should bee in the AB squad, merely he was easily thier best, with Christie second. Christie is too limited IMO unless the coaches want a terrier on the field.
If I was picking, Lakai would easily get in the squad, as would Finau. Just depends on how many loose forwards they want. Two dedicated 8s, two 7s, a six and a 6/8 ?
Ardie Savea - 100%
Hoskins Sotutu - 100%
Dalton Papali'i - 100%
Peter Lakai - 100%
Samipeni Finau - 100%
Ethan Blackadder - 100% (if fit)
Luke Jacobson - 40%
Christian Lio-Willie - 10% -
@Canes4life I'm not suggesting Lio-Willie should bee in the AB squad, merely he was easily thier best, with Christie second. Christie is too limited IMO unless the coaches want a terrier on the field.
If I was picking, Lakai would easily get in the squad, as would Finau. Just depends on how many loose forwards they want. Two dedicated 8s, two 7s, a six and a 6/8 ?
Ardie Savea - 100%
Hoskins Sotutu - 100%
Dalton Papali'i - 100%
Peter Lakai - 100%
Samipeni Finau - 100%
Ethan Blackadder - 100% (if fit)
Luke Jacobson - 40%
Christian Lio-Willie - 10%
