NPC 2025
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@Grooter The only thing I can come up with, is they think Otago are bound for the semis, so Bower will get another game, whereas they want Tosi to get a game in.
Razor's gone native!
It's why we've got all these bloody Chiefs players in the ABs and now he's boosting those central North Island swamp provinces!
Finlay Christie not released to Ta$man - presumably soon on a plane to Europe.
No pleasing you, Razor does you a favour and you're still complaining.
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@Nepia Very harsh!
Somewhat in regard to the discussion on Jacombe going to the Highlanders, it can be very unpredictable making these deals.
We swapped out Louie Chapman on the assumption that he would be trapped behind Hotham and Christie for the NPC season - and took Mitch Drummond in exchange.
Now Hotham and Drummond are both broken, and Finlay's in AB camp - we're using Renton and Thornally.
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Dylan Pledger is having something of a historic season, at least as far as attacking numbers are concerned. RugbyPass has the statistical recording for try assists since the 2021 Bunnings NPC season. In that time, the highest recorded number for assists belonged to Te Toiroa Tahuriorangi, with 10 during the 2024 season.
With potentially two games left to play, Pledger has already surpassed that record. On Friday against Waikato, Pledger registered his 14th try assist of the season. When combining these try assist numbers with tries scored – for the total of halfback try involvements – Pledger’s standout season becomes even more apparent.
Here, the record also originated during the 2024 season, with Kyle Preston having 12 total try involvements (8 tries, 4 assists) for Wellington during their victorious season. After scoring another two tries against Waikato, Pledger’s try involvements now total a staggering 21 (7 tries, 14 assists).
A historic season: Pledger’s total try involvements prove to be a statistical outlierWhat the graph furthermore shows is that halfbacks rarely combine high try-scoring rates with high assist numbers. Typically they are finishers or distributors, being either particularly adept at finding the try line (Hotham, Preston, Weber) or at putting others over the line (Drummond, Tahuriorangi, Hall). With Pledger, this either/or seems to not apply.
While Dylan Pledger is far from the finished product – others have already mentioned his need for further physical development, which has also impacted his ability to be an effective defender – this season has shown that he has serious attacking potential, both as a game manager and as a lethal finisher in his own right. And while I feel it's too early to know how he'll go at the next level, at the very least he does deserve some plaudits for what he's achieved at this one.
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64K views · 965 reactions | Kieran Read has nothing but Counties...
Kieran Read has nothing but Counties Manukau in the DNA 👏 📲 Watch LIVE on Sky Sport NZ
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Roe and Fakatava are getting short changed here.
Yeah, that’s fair enough. The reason I didn’t mention both Roe and Fakatava is because I find it more difficult to put either of them into one of those categories. Roe can have seasons where he’s mainly a distributing threat (2021: 0 tries, 4 try assists; 2024: 1 try, 9 try assists), and others where he’s seemingly looking to cross the chalk himself (2023: 5 tries, 2 try assists). So while he can do both, he hasn’t been able to put the two together simultaneously. So he’s an all-rounder, in theory, but just not quite in execution.
Fakatava, like Pledger, is already a real dual-threat on attack. While he had only try assists (0 tries, 8 assists) in the 2023 season after coming back from persistent injury issues in the previous two years, he’s been one of the standout halfbacks – from a scoring contribution-perspective – both in 2024 and ’25. In 2024, he had 10 try involvements (3 tries, 7 assists) while this year, he’s equalled Preston’s previous record of 12, as he’s scored 3 himself while assisting 9 others.
To me, it looks like Fakatava is gradually returning to his attacking effectiveness from before his injury issues, when he was one of the most dangerous attacking halfbacks in New Zealand. So while the Highlanders are still looking for a quality first five, it could well be that most of their attacking game in 2026 is run through 9 anyway.
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The Canterbury-Hawke's Bay SF will be played at the same time, in the same city, as the Black Caps-England T20i game.
Rugby v cricket and Sky v TVNZ.
I initially thought the Bay match clashed with the Kiwis match and was ready to go all grumpy old man, but thankfully they're a day apart.
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Bunnings Provincial Rugby
6,943 days. That's how long Otago Rugby fans have had to wait for their spot in a top-flight semi-final 🤯 Their last outing came in 2006 vs Waikato. After 19 years, Otago are back where it matters...
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Goes alright I reckon, David Kidwell will help him improve on his defence no doubt
Dual threat ⚡️ Dylan Pledger’s fingerprints are on every stat for Otago Rugby in 2025 🏉 Otago vs Bay of Plenty 📲 LIVE on Sky Sport NZ - Friday 7.15 PM
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Goes alright I reckon, David Kidwell will help him improve on his defence no doubt
Dual threat ⚡️ Dylan Pledger’s fingerprints are on every stat for Otago Rugby in 2025 🏉 Otago vs Bay of Plenty 📲 LIVE on Sky Sport NZ - Friday 7.15 PM
The only thing Kidwell has ever improved has been Tongan rugby league.
Yes, I am still carrying a grudge.
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This is nice it's great when a battler such as Cam can prove his weight in Blue & Gold
Most conversions for Otago Rugby in an NPC season: 48 Cameron Millar (2025) * 43 Tony Brown (1998) 30 Josh Ioane (2018) 28 Greg Cooper (1990) 26 Fletcher Smith (2017) Bunnings Provincial Rugby
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I’ve been browsing through some of this year’s NPC statistics from RugbyPass and threw together some graphs to get a better overview.
Graph 1: Midfield crash ball options
Gibson Popoali’i has been a dominant force for Counties Manukau this year and this dominance is properly reflected when comparing the numbers from the Patumahoe second five to his peers in the competition.
To crash or not to crash? Midfield crash ball is not a young man’s gamePopoali’i leads the pack when it comes to defenders beaten per carry (0.45), nearly beating a defender every two carries. He also completes the top 3 for post-contact metres per carry for second fives, trailing only Thomas Umaga-Jensen and Dallas McLeod (3.84).
The graph also shows that crashing the ball up isn’t necessarily a young man’s game, With Canterbury’s Dallas McLeod the youngest of the players reaching about 3.5 post-contact metres per carry at 26 years of age. Julian Savea, while no longer the supreme athlete from the early 2010s, shows that he can still perform a role at this level. For others, like Ngani Laumape, it might take a while to get back up to speed after a few seasons in Japan.
Another surprising name near the bottom of the list is that of Gideon Wrampling. While Wrampling plays with great physicality, at the moment he’s not yet able to make consistently big dents in the defensive line. But at 24, it might be that he is yet to enter his prime years as a crash ball-option.
Graph 2: the art of the number 8
In the Highlanders topic, I’ve already mentioned what I think is the most important quality of a number 8: they need to be able to keep hold of the ball while moving forward. Ball security (not turning the ball over) and the ability to make post-contact metres are, in other words, the position’s key skills.
Stag dominance: Tupou-Ta’eiloa has been the competition’s most reliable number 8 by an absolute landslideIf ball security is an art, then Southland’s Semisi Tupou-Ta’eiloa is this year’s Pablo Picasso. While others, like Ta$man’s Fletcher Anderson and Northland’s Terrell Peita, can compete with Tupou-Ta’eiloa’s post-contact metres (46.6 post-contact metres per 80 minutes), nobody comes close when it comes to ball security. The Southland Stag has only turned the ball over just three times from 117 carries across the season, a staggering rate of 39 carries per turnover. It means that when you give him the ball, you’re not going to lose it.
Contrast this to Canterbury’s makeshift number 8, Dom Gardiner, who loses the ball once every 5.7 carries, and you get a sense of the security and reliability you get from the Moana Pasifika number 8. Terrell Peita also deserves some credit for what has been a very solid campaign, with 51.9 post-contact metres per 80 minutes and a respectable 17 carries per turnover. You’d expect a player like Peita to come into serious consideration for potential SRP-gigs at number 8.
Graph 3: Hardworking hookers
The hooker position has come to be associated in New Zealand with some of the most industrious players on the field, with a player like Codie Taylor embodying the grit and determination of the man in the middle. So how do current players stack up to a player like Taylor, who consistently racks up both big minutes as well as double figures in both tackles and carries?
A brotherly affair: George and Henry Bell are some of the most active players amongst their peers, with George being the primary carrier and Henry the primary tacklerGeorge Bell looks like the most complete option in the NPC at this stage, reaching double figures per 80 minutes for both carries (18.4) and tackles (14.4). Especially as a carrier, nobody comes particularly close to the younger Bell brother, Southland’s Jack Taylor being a long way back in second with 13.6 carries per 80 minutes. When it comes to tackle numbers, the other Bell, Henry, leads the pack with 20.8 tackles per 80 minutes. Others, like Sanerivi, Poasa, Moulds, Kereru-Symes and Gordon, also work hard on defence.
The graph also makes clear that players like Vikena, Bason, and Maka need to get their hands on the ball more. All three can be destructive carriers but with just 4.8 (Vikena and Bason) and 5.6 (Maka) carries per 80, there is too little opportunity for them to show it. What it also shows is that tries scored doesn’t necessarily equate to attack contributions, as despite Maka’s 9 tries he doesn’t really show up in the carrying numbers.
Graph 4: dual-threat first fives
Playmakers are a hot topic in NZ rugby circles, especially those who can attack and break the line, as fans are becoming increasingly exasperated at Beauden Barrett’s shovel passing. But how can you trace whether a first five can both create and produce line breaks? With not a huge amount of data available, I tried to be a little creative. I combined passing numbers with try assists to see who can produce the final pass consistently. And then I combined carrying numbers with line breaks, to see who has an effective running game.While most graphs end up with the desired position in the right top corner, this one is the opposite. You want to be as close as possible to both axis lines, as it shows that you can break the line most efficiently.
No real surprises, or perhaps just the one: Jacomb and Millar have shown the greatest ability to both break the line as put others through, with North Harbour's Cam Howell an interesting name to pop upJosh Jacomb, unsurprisingly, proves to be the biggest dual-threat when it comes to breaking the line. With just 10.6 carries per line break and 36.2 passes per try assist, Jacomb has shown an efficient ability to pierce opposition defences, both by running himself and by using his passing game. Millar has also shown great improvement this season, being more willing to attack the line himself, which has proven to be a fruitful tactic. Perhaps a more unexpected name is Cam Howell, the North Harbour first five, who has also proved to be something of a dual-threat when attacking the line.
Other first fives have specific qualities: Garden-Bachop has been fantastic at putting others into space (9 try assists, just 28.7 passes per assist) but isn’t a real running threat himself. McClutchie, on the other hand, has been a real threat ball-in-hand (8.75 carries per line break) but hasn’t really been as effective in finishing the play.
And yes, I have noticed Aaron Cruden hanging out all by himself in the top right corner. Cruden is still is an excellent first five through his game management and kicking ability but he is no longer the line-breaking first five from his younger years. Again, this graph isn’t meant to show ‘good’ and ‘bad’ first fives (if only there was such a graph); it reflects a particular way of playing the line, and Cruden no longer has the wheels to be very effective in that role. Sorry, Aaron, you'll always be my preferred 2016-'17 AB first five.
Graph 5: Two-way wingers
Today’s wingers are a different breed from what they used to be. No longer the defensive black holes they once were, the winger is now a crucial figure in any defensive line, often required to fulfil a whole range of defensive tasks. Whether it’s shooting up, outside-in, drift or backtrack, the winger has to have both an understanding of defensive duties and willingness to make big calls. And this hasn’t made any mention of their attacking duties nor kick-chase responsibilities.So who are the wingers in the NPC who have shown the most complete profile? In order to check this, I’ve tried to reconstruct their level of dominance on both sides of the ball: how often do they tackle with dominance (dominant tackle percentage) and how often do they carry with dominance (defenders beaten per carry)? When put together, this is what you end up with.
While there are no complete profiles, there are some clear defensive and attacking standouts from this year’s NPCInterestingly, Canterbury and Otago have some of the most dominant defensive wingers in the competition (Fihaki, Punivai and Nareki) while the losing semi-finalists, Bay of Plenty and Hawke’s Bay had some of the most potent attacking threats (Fineanganofo, Lasaqa, Lowe). So while individual ability is certainly a factor, being part of a system also strongly shapes how some of these numbers come into being, of course.
The two most intriguing profiles are probably those of Canterbury’s Chay Fihaki and BOP’s Fehi Fineanganofo. While Fihaki is a much-maligned figure, his defensive stats are pretty impressive, tackling at a dominance rate of 20% (one in every five tackles is dominant). Similarly, Fineanganofo’s 55% carrying dominance is exceptional, as it means that he beats a defender in less than every two carries.
So while neither are the finished product, they do appear to provide an edge, which is important for selection at the next level. It gives a coach a clearer picture of how and where to use certain players. Other hopefuls, like Taumoefolau, Springer, Tangitau and Tito-Harris would probably do well to find their own unique selling point, as a way up the rugby pyramid.
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@Mauss Thought-provoking as always, thank you mate.
A player like Tupou-Ta'eiloa, despite limitations in some areas, can be such a hugely effective part of a team with strengths like that if they're used well. A low-error rate with go-forward is gold. I always find myself mentally matching up the 'possession lost' vs 'possession won' to form a sort of a net position on a player's effect on possession for the team, so would be interested in seeing how many 'turnovers won' for a guy like that vs some of the other contenders.
George Bell is looking very promising this year, and that is a hell of a lot of involvements per game.
On the wingers, while I quite like Fineanganofo, I'm not sure about his top-end pace for the higher level. Guys like Lowe operate well in traffic and while he bounces around and makes valuable metres, I would think it is not many metres made per defender beaten, because he's never going to take an outside break and gas the defence - very effective for the bay because of how they use him, but not the attributes I see as key for a top winger. Fihaki I feel the same about, he has a lot of positive attributes, but I tihnk he should just move to midfield asap if he aspires to a higher level.
