B&I Lions 2017

[Catogrande]

@MiketheSnow Not bad but I would be concerned about the goal kicking if Farrell went off. That would mean a major re-shuffle to get Halfpenny on the pitch. I'd take Sexton over Ford for just that reason (plus his superior game management and "character").

[gollum]

I can't see any way if he's fit Sexton is not at 10.

He wont stay fit, but for the brief time he is, he'll be first choice at 10 with Farrell outside him slotting into 10 at the 60 minute mark when Sexton fails his 3rd concussion test of the game & goes off for a full shoulder reconstruction.

[Crucial]

That team constructed by committee is probably a bit screwed by where the pundits had those players that could be in more than one position eg Itoje, Farrell, Warburton

If Itoje plays at lock then the 6 or 8 needs to be a lineout operative as well. They can't narrow the lineout options to just the locks when the ABs can usually use the locks, 6 and 8 as targets and they are very skilled lineout targets to boot. (this is without even considering the 6'10" Ardie Savea in the last 20 minutes).

Also, in the 8,9, 10 alley I cannot see any sense in having 3 guys that don't play together. Either the 8/9 or the 9/10 needs to be a combo. For that reason I cannot see how Webb comes into things as any ore than a bench option if Faletau is on the pine as well.

I'd go for Murray and Sexton at 9/10. Farrell at 12

[gollum]

@Crucial said in B&I Lions 2017:

I'd go for Murray and Sexton at 9/10. Farrell at 12

Yep, I reckon that is a racing certainty

[Crucial]

@gollum said in B&I Lions 2017:

@Crucial said in B&I Lions 2017:

I'd go for Murray and Sexton at 9/10. Farrell at 12

Yep, I reckon that is a racing certainty

Assuming that Gatland is as smart as we are.

[Catogrande]

@Crucial He just might be this time round as his favourite 9, Pikey Mikey is no longer an option. I like Webb unless he's playing v England, but I would start with Murray. Webb on the bench, I think, would make a good impact option.

[MiketheSnow]

@gollum said in B&I Lions 2017:

I can't see any way if he's fit Sexton is not at 10.

He wont stay fit, but for the brief time he is, he'll be first choice at 10 with Farrell outside him slotting into 10 at the 60 minute mark when Sexton fails his 3rd concussion test of the game & goes off for a full shoulder reconstruction.

Can't see him finishing the NH season. Too many knocks already, hence his omission @Catogrande

[Crucial]

Here's my A team (in correct order)

1 Mako Vunipola
2 Ken Owens
3 Tadhg Furlong
4 AW Jones
5 Joe Launchbury
6 Sam Warburton (C)
7 Sean O'Brien
8 Billy Vunipola
9 Connor Murray
10 Johnny Sexton
11 Liam Williams
12 Owen Farrell
13 Jonathan Joseph
14 George North
15 Stuart Hogg

Replacements:
Joe Marler, Jamie George, Dan Cole, Maro Itoje , Justin Tipuric
Rhys Webb, Elliot Daly, Leigh Halfpenny

[Catogrande]

@MiketheSnow Quite likely Mike, though Lancaster at Leinster has come out saying that they will manage his game time prior to the Lions. Hmm, we'll see. I still think he's in the box seat barring injury.

[Bovidae]

Has the squad size been confirmed?

Watching some of the games from the 2005 again, Woodward selected 4 no.10s in his large squad (Wilkinson, Jones, O'Gara and Hodgson). Gatland only took 2 (Farrell and Sexton) to Aust in 2013.

Just looking at the suggested Lions 23, neither Marler or Cole offers genuine impact off the bench, as both are more suited to start. Compare that to Crockett and Faumuina for the ABs.

[MiketheSnow]

@Bovidae said in B&I Lions 2017:

Has the squad size been confirmed?

Watching some of the games from the 2005 again, Woodward selected 4 no.10s in his large squad (Wilkinson, Jones, O'Gara and Hodgson). Gatland only took 2 (Farrell and Sexton) to Aust in 2013.

Just looking at the suggested Lions 23, neither Marler or Cole offers genuine impact off the bench, as both are more suited to start. Compare that to Crockett and Faumuina for the ABs.

Continuuation of hard scrummaging and trucking it up

[Crucial]

@Bovidae said in B&I Lions 2017:

Just looking at the suggested Lions 23, neither Marler or Cole offers genuine impact off the bench, as both are more suited to start. Compare that to Crockett and Faumuina for the ABs.

I thought about that but as Jamie George is the closest thing they have to an 'impact' front rower I would take the tactic of going for strength and dominance in the front row scrum wise rather than picking 'looser' players that are ball runners.
Charlie F and Crockett are freaks in that they can hold their own well in the set piece but are also dynamic. We are blessed in that regard and there aren't many around that are like them.
Play to your strengths would be my approach and if there is one weakness to Crockett and Charlie it is that they can be manipulated a bit at the scrum to play the ref.

[gollum]

Daily Telegraph (London one) have named the AB squad of 33 they are picking now, as its Thursday, and as everyone knows thats when teams are named.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/rugby-union/2017/03/30/new-zealand-squad-face-lions-blacks-can-take-british-irish/

O Franks
Faumuina
Moody
Crockett
Ofa Tu’ungafasi

Dane Coles
Codie Taylor
Coltman

Retallick
Sam Whitelock
Romano
Pat Tuipulotu

Kaino
Cane
Read
Squire
Todd
Taufua
Ardie

A Smith
TJP
Pulu

Barret
Cruden

Crotty
Fekitoa
ALB
Moala

Savea
NHS
B Smith
Dagg
Dmac

[Crucial]

How very prescient of them considering our guys are only just winding up and lots can happen in Super rugby.

They obviously haven't been watching the Super games as they have excluded one of the standout players so far in TKB. A 9 that will be way more up to speed on AB systems than Pulu. Pulu will be 4th in order should injuries happen.

SBW to make a comeback attempt yet as well at the possible expense of Moala.

As for the Taufua over Dixon call? Can't see that happening (injuries aside)

[Tim]

Why would we want seven loose forwards when we're at home?

Pity that Fifita is injured.

[Crucial]

From Steve Deane at newsroom.co.nz (https://www.newsroom.co.nz/@rugby/2017/03/15/11021/the-lion-effect )

The Lion$ Effect - NZ Rugby’s massive windfall

Twenty-point-four million dollars in cash. That’s what the New Zealand Rugby banked the last time the British and Irish Lions toured here.

It is best known for Dan Carter’s coming-of-age party and Brian O’Driscoll’s controversial shoulder injury, however it’s arguable the most dramatic thing the tour produced was the boost to New Zealand Rugby’s bank balance.

Crunching the numbers from 2005, it’s no wonder New Zealand Rugby have prioritised the 2017 Lions tour ahead of, well, everything. It’s not every year – or even every decade – that rugby’s version of Santa Claus drops by with a swag bag of cash that will more than treble the governing body’s income and increase its asset base by over 20 per cent almost overnight.

That is exactly what happened in 2005.

Of the 360,000 available tickets for the 11 matches, 355,000 were sold, with a good chunk claimed by 29,000 tourists from the United Kingdom.

Figures from New Zealand Rugby’s 2005 annual report show those visitors generated estimated foreign exchange gains for the country of $120M, and a total economic benefit of $250M. While the methodology used in economic impact reporting can be malleable, the $20.4m banked by the NZRU is a rock-solid figure.

The effect on the organisation’s balance sheet was dramatic.

In the previous financial year, when the All Blacks played in the Tri-Nations, hosted two June tests against England and one against Argentina before undertaking a four-match Northern Hemisphere tour, revenue from fixtures and tours was $9.24m, and total income from all sources $104.904m.

In 2005, revenue from fixtures and tours climbed to $33.904m (an increase of $24.649m) and total income was up nearly $42m to $146.675m.

The value of assets held by NZR increased from $84.458M to $108.839M – the increase almost entirely made up of the near 25 million extra dollars banked thanks to the Lions Tour (NZR’s financial reports show $34.181M cash in the bank – up from $9.028M).

The Lions practically defecate money.

All smiles during the successful 2005 Tour. Picture: Getty Images
“It was a year to treasure,” then NZRU chairman the late Jock Hobbs in a press release accompanying the 2005 annual report. “A year which proved that, by working closely and cohesively, New Zealand rugby is capable of making – and keeping – big promises.”

And cashing in when the opportunity presents itself.

With the storm clouds of the GFC gathering, the money banked in 2005 would be needed. A year later, New Zealand Rugby’s financial outlook was significantly less rosy. The game’s revenue declined a whopping 36 percent in 2006. Of the $53.4m drop, $34m was directly attributable to not having a Lions series to host. Another $19m was due to exchange rate fluctuations and $10m due to a back-ended broadcasting agreement coming to a close.

“The 2006 financial result highlights the fact that, with approximately two-thirds of our revenue generated in foreign currency, we are very vulnerable to exchange rate movements,” then chief executive Chris Moller noted.

By 2008, another key pressure was coming to bear. Spectator interest in the game – particularly the once mighty NPC - had begun to wane, and even All Blacks test matches were no longer selling out.

“Significant pressure remains on the sustainability of rugby at the provincial and franchise level, and this pressure is intensified by the economic, competitive and preference factors which have seen some rugby fans choose to watch or attend less rugby than they have in the past,” Hobbs noted.

“We must address this issue. We must also do this in the context of the most severe economic downturn since the Great Depression.”

Had it not been for the 2005 Lions cash, the situation would have been vastly more grim. The windfall helped insulate the game financially at a difficult time, but the money would not last forever. Revenues needed to increase. With income from major sponsorship contracts and broadcast rights locked in, there was only one obvious option – to play more matches.

In 2008, for the first time, an extra Bledisloe Cup match was played in Hong Kong, creating much of the additional $7.8m in revenue generated that year. Additional matches – such as the now semi-regular trip to Chicago have become an accepted part of the All Blacks schedule. While they are lucrative, the returns pale in comparison to the goldrush of a Lions tour.

It remains to be seen, though, whether the 2017 tour will deliver similar returns as 2005.

Newsroom requested interviews with New Zealand Rugby officials and submitted questions relating to financial projections for the forthcoming tour but did not receive a response in time to be included in this version of this story.

We asked New Zealand Rugby how many tickets were available for sale during the tour and how many they hoped to sell.

Our calculations - based on ground capacities published on the official Lions website suggest the total number of tickets available will be similar to 2005 – approximately 357,548 (compared to 360,000).

While the 2017 tour will comprise one less match (10 instead of 11), New Zealand’s largest stadium, Eden Park, will host two of the three test matches. In a switch from the traditional tour structure, the Lions will play warm-up and mid-week matches largely against the Super Rugby franchises at major metropolitan stadiums rather than visit provinces such as Southland, Taranaki and Manawatu, as they did in 2005. The upshot is that the total number of available tickets remains similar to that of the 2005 tour.

Twelve years on from the last Lions tour, New Zealand Rugby is in a remarkably similar financial position. Its total assets are valued at $153,095m. In 2005, that figure was $108.839m which, adjusted for inflation, is $137.5m. In real terms, then, NZR has increased its asset base by just 11 per cent over 12 years.

In 2005, it took a little over six weeks to boost the game’s assets by more than double that - 22.5 per cent. That’s the reality of the Lion$ effect.

[Frye]

Re: TKB. It will come down to whether All Blacks will be released for the Maori. Last time the Maori match was two weeks before the first test. This time it is one week.

He's already off and the Maori need a top halfback. My money is on Pulu getting the third spot.

In saying that I hope a couple of All Blacks get released.

[rotated]

@MiketheSnow said in B&I Lions 2017:

Replacements:
Connor Murray

My initial reaction is that is preposterous - Murray is clearly the best 9 going up there. But maybe it isn't about who is best and picking them in the XV, perhaps the balance is better starting with Webb/Youngs and then upping the ante as needed with Murray.

Gatland traditionally uses his bench poorly, but often doesn't have a great hand to play with - this could be his chance.

[Milk]

I also think Pulu will get the third spot. However, if Smith or TJP are injured I think TKB will leapfrog Pulu onto the bench.

[Bovidae]

@MiketheSnow
@Crucial

So maybe better to use Vunipola off the bench as Jones did.