The Silver Fern

Good to see Razor has no hard feelings about the Papali'i headbutt.

Some stats showing Blackadders Running Impact:

Tackle Evasion %
34.6 Veveni Lasaqa
26.7 Ardie Savea
22.8 Dalton Papali'i
20.0 Jahrome Brown
19.5 Luke Jacobson
18.4 Du'Plessis Kirifi
8.8 Kaylum Boshier
8.6 Tom Christie
7.1 Adrian Choat
2.5 Ethan Blackadder

Gainline %
73.6 Veveni Lasaqa
73.5 Jahrome Brown
68.8 Ardie Savea
66.7 Adrian Choat
65.8 Luke Jacobson
64.3 Kaylum Boshier
63.0 Dalton Papali'i
54.0 Du'Plessis Kirifi
44.2 Tom Christie
34.1 Ethan Blackadder

Dominant Carry %
44.2 Veveni Lasaqa
43.8 Luke Jacobson
35.5 Ardie Savea
34.3 Dalton Papali'i
33.8 Tom Christie
33.6 Du'Plessis Kirifi
28.2 Kaylum Boshier
24.1 Adrian Choat
13.8 Ethan Blackadder

When Tom Christie, Adrian Choat, and Kaylum Boshier all have more effective carries in all these metrics that's a problem.

Blackadder lacks the physicality of Kaino, Read, Messam, Vito, Squire, Luatua, Fifita, Hemopo, Ioane, Jacobson and Frizell.

You have to go back to Adam Thompson to get the same lack of physicality. At least Thompson won turnovers, had genuine pace, and was a seriously good lineout operator.

Turns out Fihaki has missed the most tackles this season of any back from the NZ teams squads who played in the semis

@Dan54 said in Exodus:

Shame about Stevenson going, (say the same about anything that takes away depth) but I maybe not as gut wrenched as a few. I always thought he was a bloody good 15 with a good punt, but maybe seemed to go missing big times in quite a few games. Very much like Akira Ioane type player, perhaps had everything but that last 2% in mind department? Just my take, so don't shoot me. I honestly thing Chiefs will be well served with ENS at 15, but I not really a Chiefs man so obviously not deep into it.

Stevenson and ENS are both better than Fihaki and Reece. Reece has had ample opportunities but is a flake under the highball and lacks the pace to be an international winger plus he's a basically a crim that got two free passes.

The double standards of these coaches boggles the mind.

@Chris-B said in All Blacks 2025:

@nzzp said in All Blacks 2025:

@No-Quarter said in All Blacks 2025:

On speed of loosies, McCaw wasn't exactly a speed merchant either. More important than speed, particularly for a loosie playing the tighter role, is a big engine and great game awareness which allows them to get themselves in the right position more often than not.

True, up to a point.

Like someone said with height at the lineout - it's not an issue until it's a big issue. If you aren't fast, you start needing other players who are around you - and then that changes the balance of the trio. And if you aren't fast enough and you go up against players who are faster, that can be a real problem. Also, early McCaw was quick!

We're looking at stats when they can be misleading - part of the issue with early Hooper and with Adam Thomson were they got to lots of places but didn't have a big impact when they did. Razor loves multi-position players, which means you dno't get specialists (by definition) ... and I think that is a real problem at Test level. EB is great in many ways, but he is not fast - seems to struggle to run at times - and I don't think is quick enough to be a 7 in Tests. Obviously Razor and Ryan disagree with me though.

Ethan's not really fast enough to be an elite 7. He can obviously play there - he's spent quite a lot of this Super season there - but it's not his best position.

He's a smallish 6. If they want a big 6 they'll pick Finau or Parker - maybe both.

But, Ethan is a probably slightly bigger version of Liam Messam, who went alright.

Messam had the pace of a back and was a lot harder hitter in defence.

@gt12 said in All Blacks 2025:

@KiwiMurph said in All Blacks 2025:

@sparky said in All Blacks 2025:

Why wouldn't a Sititi-Savea-Sotutu back row work at Test level?

At least give it a go ffs

I worry about our lineout.
I know Sotutu isn't terrible and Sititi can be used.
If we have Vaii's workrate at lock that's a good thing, right? But, you add Barrett as the other lock and suddenly we have five hybrids from 4-7.

Sotutu won the most lineouts of all NZ players last year in SR. The Blues didn't use him as much this year but he is an excellent lineout operator.

I don't get why people think Ardie has been poor?

He's made the most tackles - 108 tackles at 98%.

He's made the most dominant tackles of 9.

He's won the 2nd most lineouts of 19.

He's won the most turnovers of 7.

He's 2nd for most tries.

He's 2nd for defenders beaten.

These are not just loose forward stats but stats for all All Blacks.

@Callcentre-Spunk

He's the anti Blackadder - high impact but also has the lowest workrate in NZ.

Kirifi and Papali'i each average 18 more contact involvements per 80 minutes compared to Lasaqa.

Combine Lasaqa and Blackadder into one player and you get Ardie Savea.

Excellent performance from the starting tight five. PT paired with Holland was a lot stronger than the Holland Barrett combo last week.

@frugby

Sititi is an exciting talent but let's not forget that he struggled in the collisions against SA like he did in the Super Rugby final and in all those instances he was part of a losing team.

He's stood out against Australia, done OK against SA as the game developed, and failed big time against Argentina. He was a big part of that Argentina loss giving away 3 penalties in 20 minutes.

Sotutu is also a generational talent - arguably the most talented loose forward for creating tries in the last 10 years. Ultimately rugby is about scoring more tries.

It's surprising that they didn't include Ah Kuoi in the team. Ah Kuoi and Papali'i makes more sense

I'd take Lam over Tavatavanawai. I think Lams game is better suited to test rugby. Both will probably miss out to Havili and Ennor.

Would love to see Love get a go at 10 next week. Nothing to lose really given Beauden's game tonight and with Roigard's kicking game quite low risk.

It's disappointing how conservative NZ coaches have become. Going back to Christie over Funaki. Going for Cameron over Love at 10.

Over the last 5+ years NZ coaches are preferring experienced journeymen over actual talent and ability

@frugby said in All Blacks 2025:

@Nepia said in All Blacks 2025:

@frugby said in All Blacks 2025:

It's 2025 and people are still claiming Akira Ioane is the saviour for the ABs. A very good Super Rugby player, who never quite kicked on. As the dedicated thread showed, none of the guys we have used since Kaino have consistently done it.

It's less he's the saviour and more that of all the guys that have been used since Kaino he's the one who has the most attributes that the Fern seems to be crying out for.

But he's the one given the least opportunities by the coaching squad. @Chris-B's bestie Frizell made one tackle in a RWC final and Tubby Ryan talks him up in the media as a player to bring back from Japan. Blackadder is an auto pick when not injured without ever showing he's the man.

Akira never got a chance to play the tight game he played last year for the ABs as he was always used as a wide playing 6.

That's a very fair and reason way of thinking but the stats in this thread don't lie: https://www.forum.thesilverfern.com/post/1048866

We lost four on the bounce with Akira at 6 (SA 2x, FRA & IRE) - not suggesting this was his fault entirely, but the last of those was the first test in SA, which was Ryan's first as forwards coach. Frizell was brought back for that second test, played very well and had the edge on the jersey from that moment onwards. For all the critique of Frizell, from that moment onwards, of tests he started at 6, we only lost 2. The next one against Argentina, and the last one, being the RWC final, where he was anonymous - but to say he shouldn't have been there is re-writing history.

In another time, could Akira have had that jersey? Quite possibly, BUT he got a pretty fair suck of the sav. Not many guys get to lose four in a row before they get dropped when they have very little in regards to a proven performance level at test level.

Those games weren't consecutive losses. Also we lost 6 out of 7 games against South Africa, Ireland, France, Ireland, Ireland, Ireland, South Africa from the end of 21 to mid 22. Sam Cane started in 5 out of 7 of those.

We've lost 3 out of 3 against France and Akira Ioane played in 1 of those.

In the 20's we played South Africa 9x and lost 6. Akira played in 4 and we won 2. So a 50% win rate is better than the team win rate over that period.

Frizell was actually brought back into the 1st test against SA in 2022 an dropped a pass cold near the end of the game which the Boks scored off. From 11 minute mark in the below video.

Also Frizell started in those first two historic losses against Argentina. First loss to Argentina. First loss at home to Argentina.

@reprobate

I'm not a fan of Sam Cane in recent years but he cleans and is more effective at the breakdown than Blackadder.

To say Cane only tackles is rubbish.

Here are some stats for the year for the loosies ( excluding ruck counts )

Carries Per 80 Minutes
19.39 Sititi
16.79 Savea
10.85 Finau
8.09 Cane
7.87 Blackadder
4.67 Papali'i
2.63 Jacobson

Tackers Per 80 Minutes
16.17 Cane
15.74 Blackadder
14.55 Sititi
14.24 Finau
13.68 Jacobson
12.85 Papali'i
11.04 Savea

Lineouts Per 80 Minutes
4.85 Sititi
4.74 Jacobson
2.42 Savea
2.10 Blackadder
1.36 Finau
0.43 Cane
0 Papali'i

Turnovers won per 80 minutes
1.62 Sititi
0.88 Papali'i
0.6 Savea
0.52 Blackadder
0.43 Cane
0 Finau, Jacobson

Total Impacts Per 80 Minutes
tries + try assists + clean breaks + offloads + defenders beaten + turnovers won + dominant tackles
11.31 Sititi
6.8 Savea
4.75 Finau
3.15 Blackadder
2.05 Papali'i
1.7 Cane
1.06 Jacobson

Total Negative Impacts Per 80 Minutes
turnovers conceded + missed tackles + penalties conceded + (yellow cards*2)
4.98 Blackadder
4.85 Sititi
4.75 Finau
3.83 Cane
2.34 Papali'i
2.27 Savea
2.11 Jacobson

Net Impacts Per 80 Minutes ( Total Impacts - Total Negative Impacts )
6.46 Sititi
4.53 Savea
0 Finau
-0.29 Papali'i
-1.05 Jacobson
-1.83 Blackadder
-2.13 Cane

Based on those stats my loose trio:

6 Finau
7 Savea
8 Sititi
21 Papali'i

* Without consideration of rucks attended

@reprobate

No he hasn't. Jacobson has more impact in defense and at the breakdown than Blackadder including this year for the ABs.

Jacobson is also a better back of the lineout ball winner than Blackadder.

@frugby

Rassie took over when the Boks were at their lowest nadir with Coetzee.

Robertson got a side where the bulk of the players were a whisker away from winning and RWC.