The Silver Fern

Good to see Razor has no hard feelings about the Papali'i headbutt.

@Duluth said in All Blacks 2025:

Another quote from the article @tim linked to

But Robertson’s vision was never for him to undertake the tasks that most would agree constitute the role of head coach – setting the overall playing vision for the team and then overseeing the delivery of that plan.

Instead, Robertson pitched himself as a culture coach, responsible for theming campaigns, communicating one-on-one with players to manage their expectations and career progression.

As Robertson confirmed to the Herald this week in Cardiff, it is his assistant, Scott Hansen, who effectively operates in the role most would recognise as the head coach.

So he's basically a grifter?

A million bucks a year or whatever to bring in a culture of giving up at halftime and alienate some of the best players in the country.

Some stats showing Blackadders Running Impact:

Tackle Evasion %
34.6 Veveni Lasaqa
26.7 Ardie Savea
22.8 Dalton Papali'i
20.0 Jahrome Brown
19.5 Luke Jacobson
18.4 Du'Plessis Kirifi
8.8 Kaylum Boshier
8.6 Tom Christie
7.1 Adrian Choat
2.5 Ethan Blackadder

Gainline %
73.6 Veveni Lasaqa
73.5 Jahrome Brown
68.8 Ardie Savea
66.7 Adrian Choat
65.8 Luke Jacobson
64.3 Kaylum Boshier
63.0 Dalton Papali'i
54.0 Du'Plessis Kirifi
44.2 Tom Christie
34.1 Ethan Blackadder

Dominant Carry %
44.2 Veveni Lasaqa
43.8 Luke Jacobson
35.5 Ardie Savea
34.3 Dalton Papali'i
33.8 Tom Christie
33.6 Du'Plessis Kirifi
28.2 Kaylum Boshier
24.1 Adrian Choat
13.8 Ethan Blackadder

When Tom Christie, Adrian Choat, and Kaylum Boshier all have more effective carries in all these metrics that's a problem.

Bench was good. We won the last quarter for a change.

Blackadder lacks the physicality of Kaino, Read, Messam, Vito, Squire, Luatua, Fifita, Hemopo, Ioane, Jacobson and Frizell.

You have to go back to Adam Thompson to get the same lack of physicality. At least Thompson won turnovers, had genuine pace, and was a seriously good lineout operator.

@KiwiMurph said in England Vs All Blacks:

@brodean said in England Vs All Blacks:

LF for me has been very much hit and miss. He does make things happen but he is also a very slopply player in defence, in his handling, and in his discipline. He's arguably the most inaccurate back in the squad. I think whether good outweighs the bad is up for debate.

Because of how Razor has picked the squad - the alternatives dont offer much. Reece, Rieko and ALB are all past it. Which begs the question why they are in the squad at all.

Well then Razor and co need to do a better job selecting the squad. The squad selections have been rubbish.

For me the following should be gone:

• Parker <- Sotutu/Flanders
• Jacobson <- Papali'i
• Kirifi <- Flanders/CLW
• Ratima <- Fakatava
• Christie <- Preston
• ALB <- Ennor/Lam
• Reece <- ENS/Tangitau
• Carter <- ENS/Tangitau
• Beauden Barrett <- Reihana

I'd dump Barrett completely. It's no coincidence the Blues won their SR TT title and SRP title when he was away in Japan.

Tuipulotu basically smashes the line fairly consistently when he's on and it works for us. He's very underrated imo and should be starting with Holland.

Here are the loose forward stats from Super Rugby:

Carries Committing 2+ Tacklers
76.7% Cam Christie
76.5% Oliver Haig
75.1% Semisi Tupou Ta'eiloa
74.6% Luke Jacobson
70.3% TK Howden
69.8% Corey Kellow
69.6% Ardie Savea
68.9% Hoskins Sotutu
68.2% Anton Segner
67.9% Du'Plessis Kirifi

Dominant Carry %
56.1 Vaiolini Ekuasi
45.7 Peter Lakai
44.2 Veveni Lasaqa
43.8 Luke Jacobson
43.1 TK Howden
39.4 Brayden Iose
39.4 Jahrome Brown
39.2 Simon Parker
39.1 Sean Withy
37.2 Cam Christie

Gainline %
73.6 Veveni Lasaqa
73.5 Jahrome Brown
72.1 Vaiolini Ekuasi
71.1 Samipeni Finau
70.8 Hoskins Sotutu
69.6 Simon Parker
68.8 Ardie Savea
68.3 Christian Lio-Willie
68.2 Anton Segner
66.7 Peter Lakai

Tackle Evasion %
34.6 Veveni Lasaqa
26.7 Ardie Savea
22.8 Dalton Papali'i
20.0 Jahrome Brown
19.5 Luke Jacobson
18.9 Christian Lio-Willie
18.4 Du'Plessis Kirifi
18.3 Brayden Iose
16.7 Hoskins Sotutu
15.8 Oliver Haig

Sititi isn't in the top 10 for any of these stats. I realise he didn't play much and was coming back from injury but I will point at these metrics are percentage based.

These are the players who appear the most.

Luke Jacobson: (in "Carries Committing 2+ Tacklers," "Dominant Carry %," and "Tackle Evasion %").
Ardie Savea: (in "Carries Committing 2+ Tacklers," "Gainline %," and "Tackle Evasion %").
Jahrome Brown: (in "Dominant Carry %," "Gainline %," and "Tackle Evasion %").
Veveni Lasaqa: (in "Dominant Carry %," "Gainline %," and "Tackle Evasion %").
Hoskins Sotutu: (in "Carries Committing 2+ Tacklers," "Gainline %," and "Tackle Evasion %").

It would be good if there was a loose forward who appeared in top 10 for the following 3 but there isn't:

Carries Committing 2+ Tacklers
Dominant Carry %,
Gainline %,"

Patrick Tuipulotu appears in top 10 for all 3 for locks.

Forwards Carries Committing 2+ Tacklers
82.3% Xavier Numia
76.9% Ollie Norris
76.7% Cam Christie
76.5% Asafo Aumua
76.5% Oliver Haig
75.1% Semisi Tupou Ta'eiloa
75.0% Pasilio Tosi
74.6% Luke Jacobson
73.6% Patrick Tuipulotu
73.3% Tevita Mafile'o

Backs Carries Committing 2+ Tacklers
82.1% Julian Savea
75.3% AJ Lam
71.6% Timoci Tavatavanawai
67.0% Quinn Tupaea
65.0% Leicester Fainga'anuku ( France )
64.0% Anton Lienert-Brown
63.6% Peter Umaga-Jensen
63.6% Dallas McLeod
61.5% Billy Proctor
59.7% Thomas Umaga-Jensen

FYI Lasaqa hits bugger all rucks and makes bugger all tackles.

Turns out Fihaki has missed the most tackles this season of any back from the NZ teams squads who played in the semis

@Mr-Fish said in Scotland v All Blacks:

Not exactly a hot take here, but I don't think any of the current 10s running about in NZ rugby will be the next long-term All Blacks playmaker - not Jacomb, not Reihana, not Love.

Historically, NZ's 10s have looked born to the manor from a young age and have been elevated fairly quickly, even if they haven't taken to Test rugby like a duck to water.

Barrett was 21, Cruden was 21, Carter was 21, Evans was 24, Spencer was 20, Mehrtens was 22.

Has Test rugby become more competitive in the last five years? Undoubtedly. But we've still seen most top flyhalves around the world make their international debut at a young age: Farrell was 20, Russell was 21, Ford was 20.

More recently, Marcus Smith was 22, Fin Smith was 21, Prendergast was 21. Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, who is the closest thing the world's seen to Dan Carter since Dan Carter, was 22.

I think there's a very real chance that the next cab off the ranks isn't even a full-time member of a Super Rugby squad for next year.

Considering the current conservative, fear based selection mindset of NZ coaches, including All Black coaches, I think the chances of a young first five under 24 getting a gig with the AB's any time in the next 5 years are virtually zero - no matter how good they are.

From what I've seen of Reihana and Love this year, and Plummer last year, they'd all likely do a better job than what BB is doing. None of these guys need to be the next Dan Carter. They just need to be better than the current guy which is BB who has mostly been bumbling and circumspect.

Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu would have never been selected at 20 for the ABs. He probably wouldn't even get a shot now at age 23 as a starter or even on the bench for the 10 role. He would probably be put on the wing for 10 minutes off the bench if he got selected for the ABs match day 23.

Dylan Pledger is 20 and was arguably the best back in NPC this year and he couldn't even get a wider squad place in the AB's XV who lets face it play second rate opposition.

@Dan54 said in Exodus:

Shame about Stevenson going, (say the same about anything that takes away depth) but I maybe not as gut wrenched as a few. I always thought he was a bloody good 15 with a good punt, but maybe seemed to go missing big times in quite a few games. Very much like Akira Ioane type player, perhaps had everything but that last 2% in mind department? Just my take, so don't shoot me. I honestly thing Chiefs will be well served with ENS at 15, but I not really a Chiefs man so obviously not deep into it.

Stevenson and ENS are both better than Fihaki and Reece. Reece has had ample opportunities but is a flake under the highball and lacks the pace to be an international winger plus he's a basically a crim that got two free passes.

The double standards of these coaches boggles the mind.

@Chris-B said in All Blacks 2025:

@nzzp said in All Blacks 2025:

@No-Quarter said in All Blacks 2025:

On speed of loosies, McCaw wasn't exactly a speed merchant either. More important than speed, particularly for a loosie playing the tighter role, is a big engine and great game awareness which allows them to get themselves in the right position more often than not.

True, up to a point.

Like someone said with height at the lineout - it's not an issue until it's a big issue. If you aren't fast, you start needing other players who are around you - and then that changes the balance of the trio. And if you aren't fast enough and you go up against players who are faster, that can be a real problem. Also, early McCaw was quick!

We're looking at stats when they can be misleading - part of the issue with early Hooper and with Adam Thomson were they got to lots of places but didn't have a big impact when they did. Razor loves multi-position players, which means you dno't get specialists (by definition) ... and I think that is a real problem at Test level. EB is great in many ways, but he is not fast - seems to struggle to run at times - and I don't think is quick enough to be a 7 in Tests. Obviously Razor and Ryan disagree with me though.

Ethan's not really fast enough to be an elite 7. He can obviously play there - he's spent quite a lot of this Super season there - but it's not his best position.

He's a smallish 6. If they want a big 6 they'll pick Finau or Parker - maybe both.

But, Ethan is a probably slightly bigger version of Liam Messam, who went alright.

Messam had the pace of a back and was a lot harder hitter in defence.

@Tim said in All Blacks 2025:

@Landers92 said in All Blacks 2025:

Oil update.

Jason Holland to step down after the end of year tour I’m hearing.

Reliable source, as always will wear it if wrong but have no reason to believe it isn’t accurate. Very interesting development. Can expect a possible announcement over the next day or week.

I posted the rumor that he was unhappy and isolated after the historic thrahing by SA. Turns out it was right.

The only non-Crusader leaves. What a disaster.

Im not a Holland fan but its pretty funny that he as the only non Crusader is the scape goat. Last time I checked he wasn't the defence coach that had the team leak a record score. And at home.

@gt12 said in All Blacks 2025:

@KiwiMurph said in All Blacks 2025:

@sparky said in All Blacks 2025:

Why wouldn't a Sititi-Savea-Sotutu back row work at Test level?

At least give it a go ffs

I worry about our lineout.
I know Sotutu isn't terrible and Sititi can be used.
If we have Vaii's workrate at lock that's a good thing, right? But, you add Barrett as the other lock and suddenly we have five hybrids from 4-7.

Sotutu won the most lineouts of all NZ players last year in SR. The Blues didn't use him as much this year but he is an excellent lineout operator.

There were times during the Foster era where we just rolled our sleeves up and went up fat mans alley. We made easy metres when we did this. The current team doesn't seem to have that ability.

@Frank said in All Blacks v Argentina II:

@No-Quarter said in All Blacks v Argentina II:

And nobody has actually disputed his point. But why do you think he singled out Rieko, but ignored Sevu who is worse under the high ball and was atrocious on the weekend?

Agreed, both Rieko and Sevu sucked, and both have not developed any real skill under the high ball.

Jordan is a bit hot and cold, but offers way more in attack with his angled runs.

They could all improve.

I think there's a chance they revert back to Rieko at center. He's better there than wing despite his weak distribution skills.

Potentially a move back to 13, probably unlikely, but he would also likely be a better bench option than ALB.

The most disturbing thing is JB coming back from Leinster playing really well and then after a few games his good form crumbles away. There are some series issues with the attack and back line coaching.

I don't get why people think Ardie has been poor?

He's made the most tackles - 108 tackles at 98%.

He's made the most dominant tackles of 9.

He's won the 2nd most lineouts of 19.

He's won the most turnovers of 7.

He's 2nd for most tries.

He's 2nd for defenders beaten.

These are not just loose forward stats but stats for all All Blacks.

Very inexperienced loose forward selection.

My hot take is Papalii is a better rugby player than every loose forward named apart from Savea. The rest are relatively unproven and far more inexperinced at test level.

He was superb coming off the bench against France and is a superb player.

@Callcentre-Spunk

He's the anti Blackadder - high impact but also has the lowest workrate in NZ.

Kirifi and Papali'i each average 18 more contact involvements per 80 minutes compared to Lasaqa.

Combine Lasaqa and Blackadder into one player and you get Ardie Savea.

Excellent performance from the starting tight five. PT paired with Holland was a lot stronger than the Holland Barrett combo last week.

@frugby

Sititi is an exciting talent but let's not forget that he struggled in the collisions against SA like he did in the Super Rugby final and in all those instances he was part of a losing team.

He's stood out against Australia, done OK against SA as the game developed, and failed big time against Argentina. He was a big part of that Argentina loss giving away 3 penalties in 20 minutes.

Sotutu is also a generational talent - arguably the most talented loose forward for creating tries in the last 10 years. Ultimately rugby is about scoring more tries.