All Blacks 2025
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@sparky said in All Blacks 2025:
Will Jordan with a MCL injury so a doubt for the France series.
If it's a partial he'll be fine.
@antipodean said in All Blacks 2025:
@sparky said in All Blacks 2025:
Will Jordan with a MCL injury so a doubt for the France series.
If it's a partial he'll be fine.
I’d rather he took time to get it 100% right.
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And in a "Lies, damned lies, and statistics" report, Havili will definitely make the All Blacks. Heaps of carries, tackles, defenders beaten in the loss to the Chiefs. Big effort both sides of the ball.
@antipodean said in All Blacks 2025:
And in a "Lies, damned lies, and statistics" report, Havili will definitely make the All Blacks. Heaps of carries, tackles, defenders beaten in the loss to the Chiefs. Big effort both sides of the ball.
Yet Tupaea outplayed him completely. No doubt Razor will find a spot for his pet though
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@African-Monkey said in All Blacks 2025:
Is Saula Ma'u worth a look? Don't think he's the finished article, but I think he has a bit if potential to get better.
I know they’ve already had eyes on him for a year or 2 down the line. The slight surprise AB XV selection last year shows they are watching him.
His form this year though is a slight concern, not playing at the level he was last year. His minutes have seen a huge increase as well with Kautai struggling to be available consistently.
Still young enough to turn the corner though, there’s a solid player in there. Not in the frame this season though.
@Landers92 said in All Blacks 2025:
I know they’ve already had eyes on him for a year or 2 down the line. The slight surprise AB XV selection last year shows they are watching him.
Good to know there's some sensible future planning in place. We now need to give AB newbies some actual game time.
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@Bovidae said in All Blacks 2025:
So you think they won't select Tosi? If it's six props there is only a LH spot available.
No they will, my question though is who replaces Ofa in the squad if he doesn't recover?
My other point is whether they look for someone to play on both sides of the scrum, like Ofa has the ability to.
@African-Monkey said in All Blacks 2025:
My other point is whether they look for someone to play on both sides of the scrum, like Ofa has the ability to.
It's been a while since Ofa was used as a TH, so I don't think that is a factor.
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@Tim said in All Blacks 2025:
@African-Monkey Norris, Mafileo, Fusitua?
I like Norris' work this season - he's doing a good job in the scrum but is he doing enough around the field for the All Blacks?
@antipodean said in All Blacks 2025:
I like Norris' work this season - he's doing a good job in the scrum but is he doing enough around the field for the All Blacks?
These are the Opta stats for some of the loosehead candidates – X. Numia, T. Mafileo, O. Norris, J. Fusitua, and G. Bower – on both the attacking and defending side.
Attack
So on attack, especially as a carrier, Numia seems to offer the most out of the available options, averaging 8.7 carries/80min, while pairing this with the highest percentages in gainline (56.9), dominant carries (52), 2+ tacklers committed (84.5), and tackle evasion (23.1). In contrast, Bower seems to offer the least on attack: while his 7 carries/80min is a respectable number, he scores the lowest on all other percentages, such as dominant carries (7.1), gainline (30), 2+ tacklers committed (60.6) and tackle evasion (6.7).
As a cleaner for attacking rucks, Norris stands out, making 22.6 cleans/80min at a very high rate of effectiveness (91.9%). The others all average around 18-20 cleans/80min, with only Numia having a considerably lower rate at 13 offensive cleans/80min, which can be explained through his higher carrying rate.
Defence
In terms of defence, it has to be said that no single candidate looks to be a bad defender. A tackle success rate of 90+% is more than respectable for a prop, and no loosehead from this group dips below that. In terms of volume – Numia: 11.5 tackles/80min; Mafileo: 12.4 tackles/80min; Norris: 15.6 tackles/80min; Fusitua: 17.8 tackles/80min; Bower: 19.4 tackles/80min – Fusitua and Bower score the highest, while Norris puts in the most dominant tackles (5). As far as the defensive ruck is concerned, Numia and Norris offer the most threat in that area, at 16% and 5.7% effectiveness respectively.
The choice
What the selectors eventually pick will most likely come down to their specific requirements. I suspect they’ll look at scrummaging and other set-piece work first, before seeing whether they want a more offensive-carrying profile (Numia), a hardworking cleaner on attack (Norris), a volume defender (Bower/Fusitua) or someone who can effectively scrummage on both sides (Mafileo).Looking at these profiles, as well as the eye test, it has to be said that loosehead is a position of decent depth right now, as this group doesn’t even take the current AB players into consideration. The biggest question mark will be their scrummaging ability at Test level. And while Norris, Fusitua and Numia have taken considerable leaps in this area in the past two seasons, it still remains to be seen whether they can produce similar results against international tighthead props.
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@antipodean said in All Blacks 2025:
I like Norris' work this season - he's doing a good job in the scrum but is he doing enough around the field for the All Blacks?
These are the Opta stats for some of the loosehead candidates – X. Numia, T. Mafileo, O. Norris, J. Fusitua, and G. Bower – on both the attacking and defending side.
Attack
So on attack, especially as a carrier, Numia seems to offer the most out of the available options, averaging 8.7 carries/80min, while pairing this with the highest percentages in gainline (56.9), dominant carries (52), 2+ tacklers committed (84.5), and tackle evasion (23.1). In contrast, Bower seems to offer the least on attack: while his 7 carries/80min is a respectable number, he scores the lowest on all other percentages, such as dominant carries (7.1), gainline (30), 2+ tacklers committed (60.6) and tackle evasion (6.7).
As a cleaner for attacking rucks, Norris stands out, making 22.6 cleans/80min at a very high rate of effectiveness (91.9%). The others all average around 18-20 cleans/80min, with only Numia having a considerably lower rate at 13 offensive cleans/80min, which can be explained through his higher carrying rate.
Defence
In terms of defence, it has to be said that no single candidate looks to be a bad defender. A tackle success rate of 90+% is more than respectable for a prop, and no loosehead from this group dips below that. In terms of volume – Numia: 11.5 tackles/80min; Mafileo: 12.4 tackles/80min; Norris: 15.6 tackles/80min; Fusitua: 17.8 tackles/80min; Bower: 19.4 tackles/80min – Fusitua and Bower score the highest, while Norris puts in the most dominant tackles (5). As far as the defensive ruck is concerned, Numia and Norris offer the most threat in that area, at 16% and 5.7% effectiveness respectively.
The choice
What the selectors eventually pick will most likely come down to their specific requirements. I suspect they’ll look at scrummaging and other set-piece work first, before seeing whether they want a more offensive-carrying profile (Numia), a hardworking cleaner on attack (Norris), a volume defender (Bower/Fusitua) or someone who can effectively scrummage on both sides (Mafileo).Looking at these profiles, as well as the eye test, it has to be said that loosehead is a position of decent depth right now, as this group doesn’t even take the current AB players into consideration. The biggest question mark will be their scrummaging ability at Test level. And while Norris, Fusitua and Numia have taken considerable leaps in this area in the past two seasons, it still remains to be seen whether they can produce similar results against international tighthead props.
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@Mauss great post thanks. In that case I'd opt for Norris as I'm a big fan of individuals who make the effort to ensure good quality ruck ball. The opportunities that makes are worth triple in Test rugby.
@antipodean said in All Blacks 2025:
@Mauss great post thanks. In that case I'd opt for Norris as I'm a big fan of individuals who make the effort to ensure good quality ruck ball. The opportunities that makes are worth triple in Test rugby.
My preference goes to Norris as well. Big body, very mobile, dynamic carrier. What held him back up to now was his scrummaging. I'm not sure what he's done to fix it but he's been very solid this season.
He's not a particularly aggressive loosehead in the scrum - unlike say, De Groot, who will try to assert dominance, often in illegal ways - but if he can provide a stable platform while doing all this work in the loose, then he could be a very handy player.
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@antipodean said in All Blacks 2025:
I like Norris' work this season - he's doing a good job in the scrum but is he doing enough around the field for the All Blacks?
These are the Opta stats for some of the loosehead candidates – X. Numia, T. Mafileo, O. Norris, J. Fusitua, and G. Bower – on both the attacking and defending side.
Attack
So on attack, especially as a carrier, Numia seems to offer the most out of the available options, averaging 8.7 carries/80min, while pairing this with the highest percentages in gainline (56.9), dominant carries (52), 2+ tacklers committed (84.5), and tackle evasion (23.1). In contrast, Bower seems to offer the least on attack: while his 7 carries/80min is a respectable number, he scores the lowest on all other percentages, such as dominant carries (7.1), gainline (30), 2+ tacklers committed (60.6) and tackle evasion (6.7).
As a cleaner for attacking rucks, Norris stands out, making 22.6 cleans/80min at a very high rate of effectiveness (91.9%). The others all average around 18-20 cleans/80min, with only Numia having a considerably lower rate at 13 offensive cleans/80min, which can be explained through his higher carrying rate.
Defence
In terms of defence, it has to be said that no single candidate looks to be a bad defender. A tackle success rate of 90+% is more than respectable for a prop, and no loosehead from this group dips below that. In terms of volume – Numia: 11.5 tackles/80min; Mafileo: 12.4 tackles/80min; Norris: 15.6 tackles/80min; Fusitua: 17.8 tackles/80min; Bower: 19.4 tackles/80min – Fusitua and Bower score the highest, while Norris puts in the most dominant tackles (5). As far as the defensive ruck is concerned, Numia and Norris offer the most threat in that area, at 16% and 5.7% effectiveness respectively.
The choice
What the selectors eventually pick will most likely come down to their specific requirements. I suspect they’ll look at scrummaging and other set-piece work first, before seeing whether they want a more offensive-carrying profile (Numia), a hardworking cleaner on attack (Norris), a volume defender (Bower/Fusitua) or someone who can effectively scrummage on both sides (Mafileo).Looking at these profiles, as well as the eye test, it has to be said that loosehead is a position of decent depth right now, as this group doesn’t even take the current AB players into consideration. The biggest question mark will be their scrummaging ability at Test level. And while Norris, Fusitua and Numia have taken considerable leaps in this area in the past two seasons, it still remains to be seen whether they can produce similar results against international tighthead props.
Great post and good stats.
You would think they'd look at Norris to get a good worker who can help with quick ball, especially if paired with Tosi who can manage the ball carrying burden.
We'd then have Williams and Lomax to be replaced by Norris and Tosi. Two pairings that should work pretty well.
EDG is the player I'm not convinced about. Did you have his stats? I'd be interested to see how the encumbents stack up against the comers.
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Great post and good stats.
You would think they'd look at Norris to get a good worker who can help with quick ball, especially if paired with Tosi who can manage the ball carrying burden.
We'd then have Williams and Lomax to be replaced by Norris and Tosi. Two pairings that should work pretty well.
EDG is the player I'm not convinced about. Did you have his stats? I'd be interested to see how the encumbents stack up against the comers.
@gt12 said in All Blacks 2025:
EDG is the player I'm not convinced about. Did you have his stats? I'd be interested to see how the encumbents stack up against the comers.
The stats are from Opta, they're publicly available on their website. There's also a search bar, where you can look for specific players. They'd have to have played a minimum of 240 minutes, though, so Tu'ungafasi's stats (4 games, 178') aren't available there.
https://theanalyst.com/eu/club-rugby-stats
The AB looseheads
Some noticeable takeaways: de Groot's effectiveness at the attacking ruck isn't great (70.1%), something which can perhaps partially by explained by a lack of dominant ball carriers at the Highlanders, which can make cleaning more challenging. Tamaiti Williams' tackling success is on the lower end of the scale, at 82.8%.
Neither stand out massively in opposition to the up-and-comers. What Williams does offer is a threat at the line (3 try involvements), a big body in the scrum and the loose, and soft hands. de Groot, as mentioned above, is one of the more aggressive scrummagers in NZ. He also seems to possess Test pedigree, where he tends to rise to the occasion. But there's certainly a case to be made that de Groot is at risk of losing his spot.
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Thanks for the very interesting analysis. Are there any stats on scrum penalties gained/conceded? Perhaps at test level?
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Thanks for the very interesting analysis. Are there any stats on scrum penalties gained/conceded? Perhaps at test level?
@Tim said in All Blacks 2025:
Are there any stats on scrum penalties gained/conceded?
Well, that was easier than expected. It was also on the Opta-website. This is for Super Rugby in 2025:
For a clearer view, you can go to the website I shared above, go to Team Stats and then just type in Super Rugby into the search bar. You can then click on 'set piece' and you'll find this table.
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Of course those around them make a huge difference. With Scooter behind you and Codie on your right, most LHs will look much better.
Last year, Numia looked the up and coming scrummaging LH.
This year no one seems to stand out. Norris is handy around field and was solid in the scrum against Newell so deserves to be in mix. -
Thanks to Mauss for the Opta stats link. I couldn't be fucked working much this morning so had a bit of a play. Interesting numbers. I had a look at the AB loosie candidates plus a couple and some Aussies. From most to least:
Attacking rucks/minute: EB, DP, Withy, LJ, Kirifi, Parker, Grace, Segner, Tizzano, Lakai, McReight, Lio-Willie, Valetini, Finau, Savea, Sotutu, Wilson.
Carries/min: Valetini, Wilson, Savea, Sotutu, Lio-Willie, LJ, Tizzano, EB, Kirifi, Grace, Parker, Withy, Finau, McReight, Segner, DP.
Tackles/min: EB, Wilson, McReight, DP, Grace, Tizzano, Kirifi, Withy, Lakai, LJ, Lio-Willie, Segner, Parker, Savea, Sotutu, Finau, Valetini.
Defensive rucks/minute: Savea, Kirifi, Withy, DP, McReight, Tizzano, EB, Lakai, Segner, Sotutu, Valetini, Grace, LJ, Lio-Willie, Finau, Parker, Wilson.
Adding them all up, for a loose 'ínvolvements/min': EB (and it's not close), DP, Kirifi, Withy, Tizzano, Lakai, McReight, Savea, LJ, Grace, Lio-willie, Wilson, Segner, Valetini, Parker, Sotutu, Finau.Stats never tell the whole story, but interesting nonetheless.
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Hopefully Will does come back ok, otherwise I fear we will be seeing the DMac/BB combination again for the ABs.
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Hopefully Will does come back ok, otherwise I fear we will be seeing the DMac/BB combination again for the ABs.
@Crazy-Horse said in Crusaders 2025:
Hopefully Will does come back ok, otherwise I fear we will be seeing the DMac/BB combination again for the ABs.
Tough decision whether I want to lose my left eye or my right eye.
