All Blacks 2025
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@antipodean said in All Blacks 2025:
I like Norris' work this season - he's doing a good job in the scrum but is he doing enough around the field for the All Blacks?
These are the Opta stats for some of the loosehead candidates – X. Numia, T. Mafileo, O. Norris, J. Fusitua, and G. Bower – on both the attacking and defending side.
Attack
So on attack, especially as a carrier, Numia seems to offer the most out of the available options, averaging 8.7 carries/80min, while pairing this with the highest percentages in gainline (56.9), dominant carries (52), 2+ tacklers committed (84.5), and tackle evasion (23.1). In contrast, Bower seems to offer the least on attack: while his 7 carries/80min is a respectable number, he scores the lowest on all other percentages, such as dominant carries (7.1), gainline (30), 2+ tacklers committed (60.6) and tackle evasion (6.7).
As a cleaner for attacking rucks, Norris stands out, making 22.6 cleans/80min at a very high rate of effectiveness (91.9%). The others all average around 18-20 cleans/80min, with only Numia having a considerably lower rate at 13 offensive cleans/80min, which can be explained through his higher carrying rate.
Defence
In terms of defence, it has to be said that no single candidate looks to be a bad defender. A tackle success rate of 90+% is more than respectable for a prop, and no loosehead from this group dips below that. In terms of volume – Numia: 11.5 tackles/80min; Mafileo: 12.4 tackles/80min; Norris: 15.6 tackles/80min; Fusitua: 17.8 tackles/80min; Bower: 19.4 tackles/80min – Fusitua and Bower score the highest, while Norris puts in the most dominant tackles (5). As far as the defensive ruck is concerned, Numia and Norris offer the most threat in that area, at 16% and 5.7% effectiveness respectively.
The choice
What the selectors eventually pick will most likely come down to their specific requirements. I suspect they’ll look at scrummaging and other set-piece work first, before seeing whether they want a more offensive-carrying profile (Numia), a hardworking cleaner on attack (Norris), a volume defender (Bower/Fusitua) or someone who can effectively scrummage on both sides (Mafileo).Looking at these profiles, as well as the eye test, it has to be said that loosehead is a position of decent depth right now, as this group doesn’t even take the current AB players into consideration. The biggest question mark will be their scrummaging ability at Test level. And while Norris, Fusitua and Numia have taken considerable leaps in this area in the past two seasons, it still remains to be seen whether they can produce similar results against international tighthead props.
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@Mauss great post thanks. In that case I'd opt for Norris as I'm a big fan of individuals who make the effort to ensure good quality ruck ball. The opportunities that makes are worth triple in Test rugby.
@antipodean said in All Blacks 2025:
@Mauss great post thanks. In that case I'd opt for Norris as I'm a big fan of individuals who make the effort to ensure good quality ruck ball. The opportunities that makes are worth triple in Test rugby.
My preference goes to Norris as well. Big body, very mobile, dynamic carrier. What held him back up to now was his scrummaging. I'm not sure what he's done to fix it but he's been very solid this season.
He's not a particularly aggressive loosehead in the scrum - unlike say, De Groot, who will try to assert dominance, often in illegal ways - but if he can provide a stable platform while doing all this work in the loose, then he could be a very handy player.
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@antipodean said in All Blacks 2025:
I like Norris' work this season - he's doing a good job in the scrum but is he doing enough around the field for the All Blacks?
These are the Opta stats for some of the loosehead candidates – X. Numia, T. Mafileo, O. Norris, J. Fusitua, and G. Bower – on both the attacking and defending side.
Attack
So on attack, especially as a carrier, Numia seems to offer the most out of the available options, averaging 8.7 carries/80min, while pairing this with the highest percentages in gainline (56.9), dominant carries (52), 2+ tacklers committed (84.5), and tackle evasion (23.1). In contrast, Bower seems to offer the least on attack: while his 7 carries/80min is a respectable number, he scores the lowest on all other percentages, such as dominant carries (7.1), gainline (30), 2+ tacklers committed (60.6) and tackle evasion (6.7).
As a cleaner for attacking rucks, Norris stands out, making 22.6 cleans/80min at a very high rate of effectiveness (91.9%). The others all average around 18-20 cleans/80min, with only Numia having a considerably lower rate at 13 offensive cleans/80min, which can be explained through his higher carrying rate.
Defence
In terms of defence, it has to be said that no single candidate looks to be a bad defender. A tackle success rate of 90+% is more than respectable for a prop, and no loosehead from this group dips below that. In terms of volume – Numia: 11.5 tackles/80min; Mafileo: 12.4 tackles/80min; Norris: 15.6 tackles/80min; Fusitua: 17.8 tackles/80min; Bower: 19.4 tackles/80min – Fusitua and Bower score the highest, while Norris puts in the most dominant tackles (5). As far as the defensive ruck is concerned, Numia and Norris offer the most threat in that area, at 16% and 5.7% effectiveness respectively.
The choice
What the selectors eventually pick will most likely come down to their specific requirements. I suspect they’ll look at scrummaging and other set-piece work first, before seeing whether they want a more offensive-carrying profile (Numia), a hardworking cleaner on attack (Norris), a volume defender (Bower/Fusitua) or someone who can effectively scrummage on both sides (Mafileo).Looking at these profiles, as well as the eye test, it has to be said that loosehead is a position of decent depth right now, as this group doesn’t even take the current AB players into consideration. The biggest question mark will be their scrummaging ability at Test level. And while Norris, Fusitua and Numia have taken considerable leaps in this area in the past two seasons, it still remains to be seen whether they can produce similar results against international tighthead props.
Great post and good stats.
You would think they'd look at Norris to get a good worker who can help with quick ball, especially if paired with Tosi who can manage the ball carrying burden.
We'd then have Williams and Lomax to be replaced by Norris and Tosi. Two pairings that should work pretty well.
EDG is the player I'm not convinced about. Did you have his stats? I'd be interested to see how the encumbents stack up against the comers.
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Great post and good stats.
You would think they'd look at Norris to get a good worker who can help with quick ball, especially if paired with Tosi who can manage the ball carrying burden.
We'd then have Williams and Lomax to be replaced by Norris and Tosi. Two pairings that should work pretty well.
EDG is the player I'm not convinced about. Did you have his stats? I'd be interested to see how the encumbents stack up against the comers.
@gt12 said in All Blacks 2025:
EDG is the player I'm not convinced about. Did you have his stats? I'd be interested to see how the encumbents stack up against the comers.
The stats are from Opta, they're publicly available on their website. There's also a search bar, where you can look for specific players. They'd have to have played a minimum of 240 minutes, though, so Tu'ungafasi's stats (4 games, 178') aren't available there.
https://theanalyst.com/eu/club-rugby-stats
The AB looseheads
Some noticeable takeaways: de Groot's effectiveness at the attacking ruck isn't great (70.1%), something which can perhaps partially by explained by a lack of dominant ball carriers at the Highlanders, which can make cleaning more challenging. Tamaiti Williams' tackling success is on the lower end of the scale, at 82.8%.
Neither stand out massively in opposition to the up-and-comers. What Williams does offer is a threat at the line (3 try involvements), a big body in the scrum and the loose, and soft hands. de Groot, as mentioned above, is one of the more aggressive scrummagers in NZ. He also seems to possess Test pedigree, where he tends to rise to the occasion. But there's certainly a case to be made that de Groot is at risk of losing his spot.
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Thanks for the very interesting analysis. Are there any stats on scrum penalties gained/conceded? Perhaps at test level?
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Thanks for the very interesting analysis. Are there any stats on scrum penalties gained/conceded? Perhaps at test level?
@Tim said in All Blacks 2025:
Are there any stats on scrum penalties gained/conceded?
Well, that was easier than expected. It was also on the Opta-website. This is for Super Rugby in 2025:
For a clearer view, you can go to the website I shared above, go to Team Stats and then just type in Super Rugby into the search bar. You can then click on 'set piece' and you'll find this table.
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Of course those around them make a huge difference. With Scooter behind you and Codie on your right, most LHs will look much better.
Last year, Numia looked the up and coming scrummaging LH.
This year no one seems to stand out. Norris is handy around field and was solid in the scrum against Newell so deserves to be in mix. -
Thanks to Mauss for the Opta stats link. I couldn't be fucked working much this morning so had a bit of a play. Interesting numbers. I had a look at the AB loosie candidates plus a couple and some Aussies. From most to least:
Attacking rucks/minute: EB, DP, Withy, LJ, Kirifi, Parker, Grace, Segner, Tizzano, Lakai, McReight, Lio-Willie, Valetini, Finau, Savea, Sotutu, Wilson.
Carries/min: Valetini, Wilson, Savea, Sotutu, Lio-Willie, LJ, Tizzano, EB, Kirifi, Grace, Parker, Withy, Finau, McReight, Segner, DP.
Tackles/min: EB, Wilson, McReight, DP, Grace, Tizzano, Kirifi, Withy, Lakai, LJ, Lio-Willie, Segner, Parker, Savea, Sotutu, Finau, Valetini.
Defensive rucks/minute: Savea, Kirifi, Withy, DP, McReight, Tizzano, EB, Lakai, Segner, Sotutu, Valetini, Grace, LJ, Lio-Willie, Finau, Parker, Wilson.
Adding them all up, for a loose 'ínvolvements/min': EB (and it's not close), DP, Kirifi, Withy, Tizzano, Lakai, McReight, Savea, LJ, Grace, Lio-willie, Wilson, Segner, Valetini, Parker, Sotutu, Finau.Stats never tell the whole story, but interesting nonetheless.
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Hopefully Will does come back ok, otherwise I fear we will be seeing the DMac/BB combination again for the ABs.
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Hopefully Will does come back ok, otherwise I fear we will be seeing the DMac/BB combination again for the ABs.
@Crazy-Horse said in Crusaders 2025:
Hopefully Will does come back ok, otherwise I fear we will be seeing the DMac/BB combination again for the ABs.
Tough decision whether I want to lose my left eye or my right eye.
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So, Tangitau is still out for the Highlanders. What ever his injury is it seems to be taking a while to heal. If he stays out for the rest of the Super season does he deserve selection based on his early form? History tells us some players can look a million dollars early in the season and not so good later on.
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So, Tangitau is still out for the Highlanders. What ever his injury is it seems to be taking a while to heal. If he stays out for the rest of the Super season does he deserve selection based on his early form? History tells us some players can look a million dollars early in the season and not so good later on.
@Crazy-Horse yeah tough one eh, reckon with our aging and leaving outside backs, there's got to be a punt on some newbies and what better opportunity than a touring french side? Worked wonders just over 20 years ago.
Carter would be an interesting one too, shades of Jane, his "style" might work well at test level.
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@Crazy-Horse yeah tough one eh, reckon with our aging and leaving outside backs, there's got to be a punt on some newbies and what better opportunity than a touring french side? Worked wonders just over 20 years ago.
Carter would be an interesting one too, shades of Jane, his "style" might work well at test level.
@Bones said in All Blacks 2025:
@Crazy-Horse yeah tough one eh, reckon with our aging and leaving outside backs, there's got to be a punt on some newbies and what better opportunity than a touring french side? Worked wonders just over 20 years ago.
Carter would be an interesting one too, shades of Jane, his "style" might work well at test level.
French series an ideal opportunity to experiment a bit. Not just new ABs, but the likes of Love, Lakai, etc. A give players like QT & Sami T some serious game time.
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@Bones said in All Blacks 2025:
@Crazy-Horse yeah tough one eh, reckon with our aging and leaving outside backs, there's got to be a punt on some newbies and what better opportunity than a touring french side? Worked wonders just over 20 years ago.
Carter would be an interesting one too, shades of Jane, his "style" might work well at test level.
French series an ideal opportunity to experiment a bit. Not just new ABs, but the likes of Love, Lakai, etc. A give players like QT & Sami T some serious game time.
@Victor-Meldrew said in All Blacks 2025:
@Bones said in All Blacks 2025:
@Crazy-Horse yeah tough one eh, reckon with our aging and leaving outside backs, there's got to be a punt on some newbies and what better opportunity than a touring french side? Worked wonders just over 20 years ago.
Carter would be an interesting one too, shades of Jane, his "style" might work well at test level.
French series an ideal opportunity to experiment a bit. Not just new ABs, but the likes of Love, Lakai, etc. A give players like QT & Sami T some serious game time.
Don't disagree with you, but there is the obvious problem with NZers not accepting a loss - especially to an under strength side. AB legacy and all that.
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@Victor-Meldrew said in All Blacks 2025:
@Bones said in All Blacks 2025:
@Crazy-Horse yeah tough one eh, reckon with our aging and leaving outside backs, there's got to be a punt on some newbies and what better opportunity than a touring french side? Worked wonders just over 20 years ago.
Carter would be an interesting one too, shades of Jane, his "style" might work well at test level.
French series an ideal opportunity to experiment a bit. Not just new ABs, but the likes of Love, Lakai, etc. A give players like QT & Sami T some serious game time.
Don't disagree with you, but there is the obvious problem with NZers not accepting a loss - especially to an under strength side. AB legacy and all that.
@Crazy-Horse said in All Blacks 2025:
@Victor-Meldrew said in All Blacks 2025:
@Bones said in All Blacks 2025:
@Crazy-Horse yeah tough one eh, reckon with our aging and leaving outside backs, there's got to be a punt on some newbies and what better opportunity than a touring french side? Worked wonders just over 20 years ago.
Carter would be an interesting one too, shades of Jane, his "style" might work well at test level.
French series an ideal opportunity to experiment a bit. Not just new ABs, but the likes of Love, Lakai, etc. A give players like QT & Sami T some serious game time.
Don't disagree with you, but there is the obvious problem with NZers not accepting a loss - especially to an under strength side. AB legacy and all that.
You're right, but I think there's an experienced enough squad to start, say, Love and have back-up on the bench if things don't go well. At some stage we need to start taking chances and this is as good a time as any.
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Thanks to Mauss for the Opta stats link. I couldn't be fucked working much this morning so had a bit of a play. Interesting numbers. I had a look at the AB loosie candidates plus a couple and some Aussies. From most to least:
Attacking rucks/minute: EB, DP, Withy, LJ, Kirifi, Parker, Grace, Segner, Tizzano, Lakai, McReight, Lio-Willie, Valetini, Finau, Savea, Sotutu, Wilson.
Carries/min: Valetini, Wilson, Savea, Sotutu, Lio-Willie, LJ, Tizzano, EB, Kirifi, Grace, Parker, Withy, Finau, McReight, Segner, DP.
Tackles/min: EB, Wilson, McReight, DP, Grace, Tizzano, Kirifi, Withy, Lakai, LJ, Lio-Willie, Segner, Parker, Savea, Sotutu, Finau, Valetini.
Defensive rucks/minute: Savea, Kirifi, Withy, DP, McReight, Tizzano, EB, Lakai, Segner, Sotutu, Valetini, Grace, LJ, Lio-Willie, Finau, Parker, Wilson.
Adding them all up, for a loose 'ínvolvements/min': EB (and it's not close), DP, Kirifi, Withy, Tizzano, Lakai, McReight, Savea, LJ, Grace, Lio-willie, Wilson, Segner, Valetini, Parker, Sotutu, Finau.Stats never tell the whole story, but interesting nonetheless.
@reprobate said in All Blacks 2025:
Thanks to Mauss for the Opta stats link. I couldn't be fucked working much this morning so had a bit of a play. Interesting numbers. I had a look at the AB loosie candidates plus a couple and some Aussies. From most to least:
Attacking rucks/minute: EB, DP, Withy, LJ, Kirifi, Parker, Grace, Segner, Tizzano, Lakai, McReight, Lio-Willie, Valetini, Finau, Savea, Sotutu, Wilson.
Carries/min: Valetini, Wilson, Savea, Sotutu, Lio-Willie, LJ, Tizzano, EB, Kirifi, Grace, Parker, Withy, Finau, McReight, Segner, DP.
Tackles/min: EB, Wilson, McReight, DP, Grace, Tizzano, Kirifi, Withy, Lakai, LJ, Lio-Willie, Segner, Parker, Savea, Sotutu, Finau, Valetini.
Defensive rucks/minute: Savea, Kirifi, Withy, DP, McReight, Tizzano, EB, Lakai, Segner, Sotutu, Valetini, Grace, LJ, Lio-Willie, Finau, Parker, Wilson.
Adding them all up, for a loose 'ínvolvements/min': EB (and it's not close), DP, Kirifi, Withy, Tizzano, Lakai, McReight, Savea, LJ, Grace, Lio-willie, Wilson, Segner, Valetini, Parker, Sotutu, Finau.Stats never tell the whole story, but interesting nonetheless.
One clear variable is actual position. The No. 8s are at end of list and open side flanks at beginning.
Withy's position is interesting: doesn't he play blind side?
