AB Blindside - past, present & future
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Related to the discussion, though Elliot Smith generally seems to be completely full of shit (and most of his articles have no relation to reality):
There’s recent precedent for the playoffs helping to clear up tight selections for the All Blacks coaches, with Wallace Sititi’s wrecking-ball performance against the Hurricanes in last year’s semifinal for the Chiefs helping to earn him a spot.
Akira Ioane and Hoskins Sotutu had a line drawn through their names as the Blues pack was torn to shreds by the Crusaders the previous season, with then All Blacks coach Ian Foster admitting their performances that night had made up the selectors’ minds.
IIRC, Ioane was just returning from a Lisfranc injury.
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@brodean said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:
Players tend to play as they're asked to by the coaches.
Well, they'll certainly try. Every player wants, to a certain point, show their coaches that they can deliver what is asked of them.
But there's also such a thing as ingrained habits. Players have instincts which they've cultivated over years of playing the game. And it becomes exponentially harder to suppress those instincts the higher up the game you go, as the pressure increases and your window to process things becomes smaller and smaller.
At least, that's how I think of those things. It just makes sense to me. Perhaps you'll go out there and try to play exactly like your coach has told you to. But when there's 50.000 people around you and an angry Afrikaaner is coming at you at a 100 miles an hour, those instincts tend to kick in pretty quickly.
@Mauss said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:
@brodean said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:
Players tend to play as they're asked to by the coaches.
Well, they'll certainly try. Every player wants, to a certain point, show their coaches that they can deliver what is asked of them.
But there's also such a thing as ingrained habits. Players have instincts which they've cultivated over years of playing the game. And it becomes exponentially harder to suppress those instincts the higher up the game you go, as the pressure increases and your window to process things becomes smaller and smaller.
At least, that's how I think of those things. It just makes sense to me. Perhaps you'll go out there and try to play exactly like your coach has told you to. But when there's 50.000 people around you and an angry Afrikaaner is coming at you at a 100 miles an hour, those instincts tend to kick in pretty quickly.
There is ingrained habits but your post assumes too much of the players. Macdonald and Foster wanted to play wider games and Akira Ioane obliged. When Vern came along and wanted to keep it close Akira Ioane immediately followed the game pattern and stuck to it all year. So in the case of Akira Ioane I think it shows that clearly they were not ingrained habits.
Also Fifita when he went back to lock for the Canes played a very tight game and was one of the most physical players in the comp. He was also one of the most physical players in the stodgy NH.
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In terms of Parker I saw him as a potential AB last year however I do think that if Blackadder is fit he is likely to be in the squad as the starting 6 with Savea at 7 and Sititi at 8. Jason Ryan loves him some Blackadder and I can't see him looking past him. Personally I'd like to see someone like Parker in the squad over Blackadder but I'll be shocked if it happens.
Haig hasn't had a lot of game time this year. I do think there is a place for Finau and Parker in the squad.
I don't see Razor and co going for a tight 6 under their game plan. They picked Blackadder, Finau, and Sititi as starters last year. They're looking for mobile guys.
In terms of workrate Finau, Parker and Haig are very much alike compared to Blackadder. Finau is highly effective at attacking rucks and Parker in defensive rucks. With regards to Blackadder the coaches seem to be more interested in volume as opposed to actual impact. He's always been a high volume low impact guy.
Contact Involvements per 80 Minutes Loose Forwards ( Carries + Tackles + Rucks )
69.25 Ethan Blackadder
61.62 Corey Kellow
61.0 Tom Christie
58.87 Dalton Papali'i
58.51 Du'Plessis Kirifi
58.41 Sean Withy
56.02 Jahrome Brown
54.84 Peter Lakai
53.63 Ardie Savea
52.35 Vaiolini Ekuasi
52.17 Luke Jacobson
50.6 Cullen Grace
48.87 Christian Lio-Willie
48.33 Brayden Iose
47.89 Kaylum Boshier
47.36 Hugh Renton
45.14 Hoskins Sotutu
44.21 Simon Parker
42.27 Oliver Haig
39.32 Samipeni FinauTop 20 Loose Forward Players by Rucks Per 80 minutes
35.24 Dalton Papali'i
35.19 Ethan Blackadder
33.57 Sean Withy
31.78 Corey Kellow
31.4 Du'Plessis Kirifi
29.68 Tom Christie
29.13 Jahrome Brown
27.87 Ardie Savea
26.91 Luke Jacobson
25.77 Peter Lakai
25.44 Kaylum Boshier
23.85 Cullen Grace
23.35 Simon Parker
22.39 Vaiolini Ekuasi
21.74 Oliver Haig
20.72 Christian Lio-Willie
20.28 Samipeni Finau
20.0 Brayden Iose
19.95 Hoskins Sotutu
16.75 Hugh RentonTop 20 Loose Forward Players by Attacking Ruck Effectiveness
91.8% Samipeni Finau
91.3% Tom Christie
90.2% Dalton Papali'i
90.2% Vaiolini Ekuasi
88.1% Ardie Savea
87.8% Peter Lakai
87.6% Jahrome Brown
86.9% Christian Lio-Willie
85.9% Hoskins Sotutu
85.9% Du'Plessis Kirifi
85.2% Brayden Iose
85.1% Luke Jacobson
85.0% Sean Withy
84.5% Corey Kellow
84.5% Oliver Haig
83.1% Simon Parker
82.6% Hugh Renton
81.9% Cullen Grace
81.5% Ethan Blackadder
77.3% Kaylum BoshierTop 20 Loose Forward Players by Defensive Ruck Effectiveness
29.6% Simon Parker
23.9% Luke Jacobson
23.1% Kaylum Boshier
22.4% Du'Plessis Kirifi
21.9% Samipeni Finau
20.1% Ardie Savea
17.6% Cullen Grace
17.3% Dalton Papali'i
16.1% Tom Christie
15.2% Jahrome Brown
14.8% Christian Lio-Willie
14.7% Sean Withy
13.1% Peter Lakai
12.1% Hoskins Sotutu
12.0% Corey Kellow
11.8% Vaiolini Ekuasi
9.1% Brayden Iose
8.3% Hugh Renton
7.4% Ethan Blackadder
0.0% Oliver HaigTop 20 Loose Forward Players by Dominant Tackle %
16.5% Simon Parker
11.5% Samipeni Finau
8.0% Hugh Renton
7.9% Ardie Savea
7.1% Brayden Iose
6.2% Christian Lio-Willie
6.0% Ethan Blackadder
5.8% Hoskins Sotutu
5.5% Peter Lakai
5.3% Sean Withy
4.4% Kaylum Boshier
4.4% Corey Kellow
4.3% Du'Plessis Kirifi
4.2% Luke Jacobson
3.5% Jahrome Brown
3.4% Cullen Grace
3.3% Tom Christie
3.3% Dalton Papali'i
2.0% Oliver Haig
0.0% Vaiolini EkuasiStats from Opta theanalyst.
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Interesting stats, EBs are even more impressive given he isn't that fast, it is not just Ryan but also Razor who loves him but apart from that do they consider how his injury rate affects the loosie combo?
How is Parker in the lineout compared to Finau?
I forgot about Luatua, he was good. Vito as a 6/8 (8/6) I also liked. -
Interesting stats, EBs are even more impressive given he isn't that fast, it is not just Ryan but also Razor who loves him but apart from that do they consider how his injury rate affects the loosie combo?
How is Parker in the lineout compared to Finau?
I forgot about Luatua, he was good. Vito as a 6/8 (8/6) I also liked.@nostrildamus said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:
do they consider how his injury rate affects the loosie combo?
No. No they don't.
That was pretty clear when they used tests last year to build Blackadder back into form.
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@nostrildamus said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:
do they consider how his injury rate affects the loosie combo?
No. No they don't.
That was pretty clear when they used tests last year to build Blackadder back into form.
@brodean said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:
@nostrildamus said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:
do they consider how his injury rate affects the loosie combo?
No. No they don't.
That was pretty clear when they used tests last year to build Blackadder back into form.
Unless he ends up born again hard in the next year or so, I fear EB will end up stuffing our RWC cycle because of a failure of the coaches to see past him for the good of the team
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@nostrildamus said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:
do they consider how his injury rate affects the loosie combo?
No. No they don't.
That was pretty clear when they used tests last year to build Blackadder back into form.
@brodean said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:
@nostrildamus said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:
do they consider how his injury rate affects the loosie combo?
No. No they don't.
That was pretty clear when they used tests last year to build Blackadder back into form.
I don't share your pessimism.
Primarily because Blackadder's will get injured
Secondly, because a blind man can see Parker is stronger in contact and this frees up Sititi and Savea to do their thing.
Thirdly because Parker has just turned 25 and EB is 30 -
@brodean said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:
@nostrildamus said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:
do they consider how his injury rate affects the loosie combo?
No. No they don't.
That was pretty clear when they used tests last year to build Blackadder back into form.
I don't share your pessimism.
Primarily because Blackadder's will get injured
Secondly, because a blind man can see Parker is stronger in contact and this frees up Sititi and Savea to do their thing.
Thirdly because Parker has just turned 25 and EB is 30@Frank said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:
@brodean said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:
@nostrildamus said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:
do they consider how his injury rate affects the loosie combo?
No. No they don't.
That was pretty clear when they used tests last year to build Blackadder back into form.
I don't share your pessimism.
Primarily because Blackadder's will get injured
Secondly, because a blind man can see Parker is stronger in contact and this frees up Sititi and Savea to do their thing.This year we will see Razor's true colours. More of the same? We will be further behind in preparation for 2027
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@brodean said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:
@nostrildamus said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:
do they consider how his injury rate affects the loosie combo?
No. No they don't.
That was pretty clear when they used tests last year to build Blackadder back into form.
I don't share your pessimism.
Primarily because Blackadder's will get injured
Secondly, because a blind man can see Parker is stronger in contact and this frees up Sititi and Savea to do their thing.
Thirdly because Parker has just turned 25 and EB is 30@Frank said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:
@brodean said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:
@nostrildamus said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:
do they consider how his injury rate affects the loosie combo?
No. No they don't.
That was pretty clear when they used tests last year to build Blackadder back into form.
I don't share your pessimism.
Primarily because Blackadder's will get injured
Secondly, because a blind man can see Parker is stronger in contact and this frees up Sititi and Savea to do their thing.
Thirdly because Parker has just turned 25 and EB is 30But Razor
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@brodean said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:
@nostrildamus said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:
do they consider how his injury rate affects the loosie combo?
No. No they don't.
That was pretty clear when they used tests last year to build Blackadder back into form.
I don't share your pessimism.
Primarily because Blackadder's will get injured
Secondly, because a blind man can see Parker is stronger in contact and this frees up Sititi and Savea to do their thing.
Thirdly because Parker has just turned 25 and EB is 30@Frank said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:
@brodean said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:
@nostrildamus said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:
do they consider how his injury rate affects the loosie combo?
No. No they don't.
That was pretty clear when they used tests last year to build Blackadder back into form.
I don't share your pessimism.
Primarily because Blackadder's will get injured
Secondly, because a blind man can see Parker is stronger in contact and this frees up Sititi and Savea to do their thing.
Thirdly because Parker has just turned 25 and EB is 30Yeah the question is if when he will get injured. Will it be tonight or will it be 4 tests in to the test season?
Also if they have Savea and Sititi at 7 and 8 they might decide they want a player who hits a lot rucks which isn't Parker.
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@brodean said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:
@nostrildamus said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:
do they consider how his injury rate affects the loosie combo?
No. No they don't.
That was pretty clear when they used tests last year to build Blackadder back into form.
I don't share your pessimism.
Primarily because Blackadder's will get injured
Secondly, because a blind man can see Parker is stronger in contact and this frees up Sititi and Savea to do their thing.
Thirdly because Parker has just turned 25 and EB is 30@Frank said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:
Secondly, because a blind man can see Parker is stronger in contact and this frees up Sititi and Savea to do their thing.
That would be a dream, I'd even be happy with Finau, Savea, Sititi combo. Please! Can we break this endless cycle of 7.5's in the loose forward trio!!
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@Frank said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:
Secondly, because a blind man can see Parker is stronger in contact and this frees up Sititi and Savea to do their thing.
That would be a dream, I'd even be happy with Finau, Savea, Sititi combo. Please! Can we break this endless cycle of 7.5's in the loose forward trio!!
@Windows97 said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:
@Frank said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:
Secondly, because a blind man can see Parker is stronger in contact and this frees up Sititi and Savea to do their thing.
That would be a dream, I'd even be happy with Finau, Savea, Sititi combo. Please! Can we break this endless cycle of 7.5's in the loose forward trio!!
Well wasn't that the combo named to start in the last French test?
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@Windows97 said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:
@Frank said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:
Secondly, because a blind man can see Parker is stronger in contact and this frees up Sititi and Savea to do their thing.
That would be a dream, I'd even be happy with Finau, Savea, Sititi combo. Please! Can we break this endless cycle of 7.5's in the loose forward trio!!
Well wasn't that the combo named to start in the last French test?
@brodean said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:
@Windows97 said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:
@Frank said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:
Secondly, because a blind man can see Parker is stronger in contact and this frees up Sititi and Savea to do their thing.
That would be a dream, I'd even be happy with Finau, Savea, Sititi combo. Please! Can we break this endless cycle of 7.5's in the loose forward trio!!
Well wasn't that the combo named to start in the last French test?
It was, they finally shifted Savea to 7 and put Sititi at 8.
However check the unavaliable due to injury list...
Unavailable due to injury: Sam Cane (concussion), Mark Tele’a (hand), Sam Darry (knee), Ethan Blackadder (calf), Luke Jacobson (fractured thumb) and Dalton Papali'i (upper hamstring).
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@Frank said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:
Secondly, because a blind man can see Parker is stronger in contact and this frees up Sititi and Savea to do their thing.
That would be a dream, I'd even be happy with Finau, Savea, Sititi combo. Please! Can we break this endless cycle of 7.5's in the loose forward trio!!
@Windows97 said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:
@Frank said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:
Secondly, because a blind man can see Parker is stronger in contact and this frees up Sititi and Savea to do their thing.
That would be a dream, I'd even be happy with Finau, Savea, Sititi combo. Please! Can we break this endless cycle of 7.5's in the loose forward trio!!
If Ardie Savea (as world player of the year in 8 and super player of the year in 7) isn't 7.5, I don't know what is. I'd also argue Sititi is about 7.75.
It's the bloody 6.5s that are the problem. -
In terms of Parker I saw him as a potential AB last year however I do think that if Blackadder is fit he is likely to be in the squad as the starting 6 with Savea at 7 and Sititi at 8. Jason Ryan loves him some Blackadder and I can't see him looking past him. Personally I'd like to see someone like Parker in the squad over Blackadder but I'll be shocked if it happens.
Haig hasn't had a lot of game time this year. I do think there is a place for Finau and Parker in the squad.
I don't see Razor and co going for a tight 6 under their game plan. They picked Blackadder, Finau, and Sititi as starters last year. They're looking for mobile guys.
In terms of workrate Finau, Parker and Haig are very much alike compared to Blackadder. Finau is highly effective at attacking rucks and Parker in defensive rucks. With regards to Blackadder the coaches seem to be more interested in volume as opposed to actual impact. He's always been a high volume low impact guy.
Contact Involvements per 80 Minutes Loose Forwards ( Carries + Tackles + Rucks )
69.25 Ethan Blackadder
61.62 Corey Kellow
61.0 Tom Christie
58.87 Dalton Papali'i
58.51 Du'Plessis Kirifi
58.41 Sean Withy
56.02 Jahrome Brown
54.84 Peter Lakai
53.63 Ardie Savea
52.35 Vaiolini Ekuasi
52.17 Luke Jacobson
50.6 Cullen Grace
48.87 Christian Lio-Willie
48.33 Brayden Iose
47.89 Kaylum Boshier
47.36 Hugh Renton
45.14 Hoskins Sotutu
44.21 Simon Parker
42.27 Oliver Haig
39.32 Samipeni FinauTop 20 Loose Forward Players by Rucks Per 80 minutes
35.24 Dalton Papali'i
35.19 Ethan Blackadder
33.57 Sean Withy
31.78 Corey Kellow
31.4 Du'Plessis Kirifi
29.68 Tom Christie
29.13 Jahrome Brown
27.87 Ardie Savea
26.91 Luke Jacobson
25.77 Peter Lakai
25.44 Kaylum Boshier
23.85 Cullen Grace
23.35 Simon Parker
22.39 Vaiolini Ekuasi
21.74 Oliver Haig
20.72 Christian Lio-Willie
20.28 Samipeni Finau
20.0 Brayden Iose
19.95 Hoskins Sotutu
16.75 Hugh RentonTop 20 Loose Forward Players by Attacking Ruck Effectiveness
91.8% Samipeni Finau
91.3% Tom Christie
90.2% Dalton Papali'i
90.2% Vaiolini Ekuasi
88.1% Ardie Savea
87.8% Peter Lakai
87.6% Jahrome Brown
86.9% Christian Lio-Willie
85.9% Hoskins Sotutu
85.9% Du'Plessis Kirifi
85.2% Brayden Iose
85.1% Luke Jacobson
85.0% Sean Withy
84.5% Corey Kellow
84.5% Oliver Haig
83.1% Simon Parker
82.6% Hugh Renton
81.9% Cullen Grace
81.5% Ethan Blackadder
77.3% Kaylum BoshierTop 20 Loose Forward Players by Defensive Ruck Effectiveness
29.6% Simon Parker
23.9% Luke Jacobson
23.1% Kaylum Boshier
22.4% Du'Plessis Kirifi
21.9% Samipeni Finau
20.1% Ardie Savea
17.6% Cullen Grace
17.3% Dalton Papali'i
16.1% Tom Christie
15.2% Jahrome Brown
14.8% Christian Lio-Willie
14.7% Sean Withy
13.1% Peter Lakai
12.1% Hoskins Sotutu
12.0% Corey Kellow
11.8% Vaiolini Ekuasi
9.1% Brayden Iose
8.3% Hugh Renton
7.4% Ethan Blackadder
0.0% Oliver HaigTop 20 Loose Forward Players by Dominant Tackle %
16.5% Simon Parker
11.5% Samipeni Finau
8.0% Hugh Renton
7.9% Ardie Savea
7.1% Brayden Iose
6.2% Christian Lio-Willie
6.0% Ethan Blackadder
5.8% Hoskins Sotutu
5.5% Peter Lakai
5.3% Sean Withy
4.4% Kaylum Boshier
4.4% Corey Kellow
4.3% Du'Plessis Kirifi
4.2% Luke Jacobson
3.5% Jahrome Brown
3.4% Cullen Grace
3.3% Tom Christie
3.3% Dalton Papali'i
2.0% Oliver Haig
0.0% Vaiolini EkuasiStats from Opta theanalyst.
@brodean said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:
Finau is highly effective at attacking rucks and Parker in defensive rucks.
The only thing I'd add to this comparison is that it matters where those attacking and defensive rucks are cleaned.
While I do think Finau is a more than adequate cleaner (the occasional sloppy technique notwithstanding), his percentages are aided by the fact that most of his cleaning work is on the edge. Cleans up the middle of the field, where most of the forwards are concentrated, demand more of the cleaner.
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I'm confused how the Chiefs use them if they are going for the same blindside position in the ABs. Who is better in lineouts and a consistently more dominant and effective-tackling 6? Is Parker used more as a utility or an 8 and Finau the main 6 or has Finau gone into lock or been injured? I am assuming Chiefs fans have a pretty good idea who has been the more effective 6.
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@brodean said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:
Finau is highly effective at attacking rucks and Parker in defensive rucks.
The only thing I'd add to this comparison is that it matters where those attacking and defensive rucks are cleaned.
While I do think Finau is a more than adequate cleaner (the occasional sloppy technique notwithstanding), his percentages are aided by the fact that most of his cleaning work is on the edge. Cleans up the middle of the field, where most of the forwards are concentrated, demand more of the cleaner.
@Mauss said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:
@brodean said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:
Finau is highly effective at attacking rucks and Parker in defensive rucks.
The only thing I'd add to this comparison is that it matters where those attacking and defensive rucks are cleaned.
While I do think Finau is a more than adequate cleaner (the occasional sloppy technique notwithstanding), his percentages are aided by the fact that most of his cleaning work is on the edge. Cleans up the middle of the field, where most of the forwards are concentrated, demand more of the cleaner.
I'm guessing at AB level the defensive side is the more important one at 6 if they pick Ardie and Wallace at 7 and 8.
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@Mauss said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:
@brodean said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:
Players tend to play as they're asked to by the coaches.
Well, they'll certainly try. Every player wants, to a certain point, show their coaches that they can deliver what is asked of them.
But there's also such a thing as ingrained habits. Players have instincts which they've cultivated over years of playing the game. And it becomes exponentially harder to suppress those instincts the higher up the game you go, as the pressure increases and your window to process things becomes smaller and smaller.
At least, that's how I think of those things. It just makes sense to me. Perhaps you'll go out there and try to play exactly like your coach has told you to. But when there's 50.000 people around you and an angry Afrikaaner is coming at you at a 100 miles an hour, those instincts tend to kick in pretty quickly.
There is ingrained habits but your post assumes too much of the players. Macdonald and Foster wanted to play wider games and Akira Ioane obliged. When Vern came along and wanted to keep it close Akira Ioane immediately followed the game pattern and stuck to it all year. So in the case of Akira Ioane I think it shows that clearly they were not ingrained habits.
Also Fifita when he went back to lock for the Canes played a very tight game and was one of the most physical players in the comp. He was also one of the most physical players in the stodgy NH.
@brodean said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:
There is ingrained habits but your post assumes too much of the players. Macdonald and Foster wanted to play wider games and Akira Ioane obliged. When Vern came along and wanted to keep it close Akira Ioane immediately followed the game pattern and stuck to it all year. So in the case of Akira Ioane I think it shows that clearly they were not ingrained habits.
Also Fifita when he went back to lock for the Canes played a very tight game and was one of the most physical players in the comp. He was also one of the most physical players in the stodgy NH.
My point is that I think it's better for coaches to develop the naturally built up game of a player rather than make them conform to preconceived requirements.
Yes, Akira Ioane was able to develop a tighter style by playing blindside (already starting in 2020, due to him clearly not being wanted as a number 8 by the AB selectors). But what did it actually lead to? Sure, he was a crucial factor in the Blues winning SR. But he made the change for the ABs. And now he's 30 years old, a prime age for a blindside, and he's playing in the second division of Japanese Rugby. Playing as a number 8, by the way. Doesn't seem like an investment with the desired pay off.
So yes, players can change, according to coaching demands. But I'd argue that it very rarely leads to a player developing to the fullest of his abilities.
On Fifita, we'll just have to agree to disagree, as we clearly have very different memories of how he played. I'd agree that he's improved with age. I still wouldn't consider him to be the enforcer within the Scarlets' pack, though, I'd give that to Lousi.
