All Blacks 2025

brodean

Not scientific but I thought it would be fun to look at win rates and use those to make some decisions based on picking a team of winners ( assuming all available ). The winningest shall be captain and the second winningest shall be vice captain..

84.6% Cam Roigard (13)
82.1% Patrick Tuipulotu (55)
81.8% Pasilio Tosi (11)
77.9% Damian McKenzie (69)
75% Peter Lakai (4)
74.7% Scott Barrett (85) (Captain)
74.3% Codie Taylor (102)
72.8% Ardie Savea (102)
73% Samisoni Taukei’aho (38)
72.4% Fletcher Newell (30)
71.4% Leicester Fainga’anuku (7)
70.9% Rieko Ioane (86)
70.7% Jordie Barrett (76) (Vice-Captain)
69.6% George Bower (23)
68.8% Cortez Ratima (17)
68.4% Quinn Tupaea (20)
68.2% Tupou Vaa’i (45)
66.7% Tamaiti Williams (22)
66.7% Will Jordan (49)
66.7% Ruben Love (3)
61.5% Wallace Sititi (14)
50% Simon Parker (4)
50% Leroy Carter (2)

Potential replacements:

83.3% Samipeni Finau
78.6% Hoskins Sotutu
75.7% Dalton Papali'i

100% Ollie Norris
75% Ethan De Groot
75% Fabian Holland

77.7% Billy Proctor
100% Emoni Narawa
75.9% Caleb Clarke
80.1% Beauden Barrett

The Winners Team

Ollie Norris
Codie Taylor
Fletcher Newell
Patrick Tuipulotu (vc)
Fabian Holland
Samepeni Finau
Dalton Papali'i
Hoskins Sotutu
Cam Roigard (c)
Damian McKenzie
Caleb Clarke
Leicester Fainga'anuku
Billy Proctor
Emoni Narawa
Jordie Barrett

Replacements
16. Samisoni Tuakei'aho
17. Ethan De Groot
18. Pasilio Tosi
19. Scott Barrett
20. Ardie Savea
21. Cortez Ratima
22. Rieko Ioane
23. Beauden Barrett

mohikamo

@brodean

nice

Winning breeds confidence, and confidence is the most variable factor in a sports team.
Nothing like being in a team that's winning every time.

Still got the stats. Can you give us the average of all those players you named.

Chris B.

@brodean You'd better have Wyatt Crockett as your coach.

72 matches - 66 wins, 2 draws, 4 losses.

Holds the world record for consecutive test victories with 32.

I don't think he lost a test in which he was in the starting XV.

Two of those six draws/losses were vs the BIL Lions and another loss was vs the Barbarians (non-test).

Bones

@Chris-B probably unlikely to afford his wages, being from Ta$man.

ACT Crusader

@Chris-B and one of the other losses was that thumping at Twickers when the English midfield of Barritt and Tuilagi ripped us a new one.

Chris B.

@ACT-Crusader Was that the one where apparently half the team was sick? An otherwise inexplicable thrashing?

Wyatt's other loss was Oz in his last season - along with the two BIL matches.

He'd got to some incredible proportion and 2017 spoiled it slightly.

pakman

@nonpartizan said in All Blacks 2025:

@brodean said in All Blacks 2025:

@nonpartizan said in All Blacks 2025:

@brodean said in All Blacks 2025:

For what it's worth Proctor is ranked 10th for ball involvements this year (carry or pass or kick)

217 Beauden Barrett
210 Cortez Ratima
191 Finlay Christie
177 Cam Roigard
159 Ardie Savea
149 Damian Mckenzie
144 Jordie Barrett
128 Will Jordan
86 Fabian Holland
67 Billy Proctor

Those are encouraging stats in that 2 of the 3 top 3 most involved players are reserve halfbacks. If Roigard was clear #1 on that list the ABs may well have only one loss. Now, imagine if there was a 13 heavily involved in attack, same thing applies.

My overall point being, this team is not operating nesr it's ceiling.

Well the attack and the defence were close to the worst in the comp based on the first 4 games so one would hope that it wasn't near the ceiling.

True, I I still think the defence is pretty poor and I'm not sure how easy it will be to improve. Attack wise though the team can definitely go up another couple of gears....

The biggest discrepancy is the gap between involvements from Barrett and Proctor. One is overly involved, the other too peripheral.

Beaudy only passes to one of them.

pakman

@ACT-Crusader said in All Blacks 2025:

@Chris-B and one of the other losses was that thumping at Twickers when the English midfield of Barritt and Tuilagi ripped us a new one.

TBF the boys all had a serious virus.

brodean

@Chris-B said in All Blacks 2025:

@brodean You'd better have Wyatt Crockett as your coach.

72 matches - 66 wins, 2 draws, 4 losses.

Holds the world record for consecutive test victories with 32.

I don't think he lost a test in which he was in the starting XV.

Two of those six draws/losses were vs the BIL Lions and another loss was vs the Barbarians (non-test).

Maybe Razor is cursed for dropping Crockett for that fnal.

pakman

Jeremy Paul is quite 'volatile', but his observations, from about 28:00 on, in respect of the 2025 AB squad are very insightful:

Chris B.

@Bones said in All Blacks 2025:

@Chris-B probably unlikely to afford his wages, being from Ta$man.

Possibly true - last I heard, Wyatt was turning himself into a sporting goods mogul.

(He'd bought a sports shop in Nelson).

No Quarter

It just dawned on me that Razor is right now getting his international experience with the ABs, so by the time he moves on and starts coaching another side he will be a much better coach for it. Wish it was the other way around, but the ABs are his training ground right now and it's making a mess of our legacy. Losing Schmidt to Aus is such a massive fucking fumble from NZR.

canefan

Robinson's tenure has been one giant clusterfuck

ShaquilleOatmeal

@No-Quarter said in All Blacks 2025:

It just dawned on me that Razor is right now getting his international experience with the ABs, so by the time he moves on and starts coaching another side he will be a much better coach for it. Wish it was the other way around, but the ABs are his training ground right now and it's making a mess of our legacy. Losing Schmidt to Aus is such a massive fucking fumble from NZR.

Which teams is Robertson going to win his two World Cup titles with? I can't see anyone half decent giving him a job if things continue with the All Blacks the way they've been going.

canefan

@ShaquilleOatmeal said in All Blacks 2025:

@No-Quarter said in All Blacks 2025:

It just dawned on me that Razor is right now getting his international experience with the ABs, so by the time he moves on and starts coaching another side he will be a much better coach for it. Wish it was the other way around, but the ABs are his training ground right now and it's making a mess of our legacy. Losing Schmidt to Aus is such a massive fucking fumble from NZR.

Which teams is Robertson going to win his two World Cup titles with? I can't see anyone half decent giving him a job if things continue with the All Blacks the way they've been going.

The only countries that seem capable to win are SA, NZ, France, England. Ireland had a great team but are surrender monkeys at RWC time. Not sure Australia have the cattle, would take another perfect storm of generational players to do it. It would take a minor miracle for any of the rest to beat out one or two of the top 4 to win the title. Considering no one has actually done it, I think he's talking shit and the comment smacks of the naivety we are seeing with his ABs tenure right now

No Quarter

@ShaquilleOatmeal said in All Blacks 2025:

@No-Quarter said in All Blacks 2025:

It just dawned on me that Razor is right now getting his international experience with the ABs, so by the time he moves on and starts coaching another side he will be a much better coach for it. Wish it was the other way around, but the ABs are his training ground right now and it's making a mess of our legacy. Losing Schmidt to Aus is such a massive fucking fumble from NZR.

Which teams is Robertson going to win his two World Cup titles with? I can't see anyone half decent giving him a job if things continue with the All Blacks the way they've been going.

Fair, I suspect he'll end up with a gig coaching a club team up north, and if he has any success with them would be able to make a case for taking on a Tier 1 nation. And by that stage you'd expect he would be a much better coach than he is now.

canefan

Was it GH that recommended he be let go to sow his wild coaching oats up north before coming home to coach the ABs?

kiwiinmelb

@pakman said in All Blacks 2025:

@ACT-Crusader said in All Blacks 2025:

@Chris-B and one of the other losses was that thumping at Twickers when the English midfield of Barritt and Tuilagi ripped us a new one.

TBF the boys all had a serious virus.

Weren’t we one a 18 game winning streak or something as well , not that it makes it ok but you are more inclined to write it off as a bad day when you have been outstanding leading into it .

mohikamo

@pakman said in All Blacks 2025:

Jeremy Paul is quite 'volatile', but his observations, from about 28:00 on, in respect of the 2025 AB squad are very insightful:

One thing that you have to remember is that SA (and now Aus) have more flexibility in making selections, than Robertson.
It’s kinda like Rassie (and now Schmidt as well) can pick players for his club team, that are not actually contracted to his club.
The squad dynamic is different. Players can be moved in and out so easily.
No SA player will ever feel he’s out of the Bok picture. Even if he’s not currently in the squad, living wherever, playing for the Red Diamonds.
A more contemporary type modus operandi.

Robertson is more restricted in what he can do.
It’s almost like the AB team for 27WC is already picked and, most important, contracted.
In terms of player selections, he’s committed already. He can only tinker.
I have no doubt, if he could have, he would have picked at least one player who was a member of another club this season.
For NZ, if you aint in the club, you may as well go off-shore, earn some coin, and that’s the end of it.
You are either in, or you're out.

nonpartizan

@mohikamo said in All Blacks 2025:

@pakman said in All Blacks 2025:

Jeremy Paul is quite 'volatile', but his observations, from about 28:00 on, in respect of the 2025 AB squad are very insightful:

One thing that you have to remember is that SA (and now Aus) have more flexibility in making selections, than Robertson.
It’s kinda like Rassie (and now Schmidt as well) can pick players for his club team, that are not actually contracted to his club.
The squad dynamic is different. Players can be moved in and out so easily.
No SA player will ever feel he’s out of the Bok picture. Even if he’s not currently in the squad, living wherever, playing for the Red Diamonds.
A more contemporary type modus operandi.

Robertson is more restricted in what he can do.
It’s almost like the AB team for 27WC is already picked and, most important, contracted.
In terms of player selections, he’s committed already. He can only tinker.
I have no doubt, if he could have, he would have picked at least one player who was a member of another club this season.
For NZ, if you aint in the club, you may as well go off-shore, earn some coin, and that’s the end of it.
You are either in, or you're out.

I would say the biggest problem with the NZR system is that you end up with dead wood clogging up pathways. Guys like ALB & Reece getting minutes ahead of younger prospects with years ahead of them and way more upside. There's no rugby reason why Reece was picked 4 times before Carter stepped on the paddock this season.

In that sense I can't help thinking that the NZ XV should be a much more used vehicle for giving players a crack to see what they have got. If they scheduled 6 matches or so a year (3 in June/July and 3 in November) and had a really solid connection with the AB coaching staff you would be able to get a much better look at what players can offer in a national team environment. As is I can't help feeling that guys like Love end up languishing in a system that rewards longevity over form and guys like Shaun Stevenson never really get a fair crack.

If you have a central contact system you really have to be an excellent arbiter of talent. You don't have the luxury of letting players slip through your fingers or not getting the best out of the players under contract.

The Silver Fern

All Blacks 2025