2025 All Blacks v France series

[brodean]

@sparky said in 2025 All Blacks Squad v France:

@brodean Potentially misleading statistic if someone defends a massively wide channel.

It can potentially be misleading but he's at the bottom and he was at the bottom every year in NZ too.

[Kiwiwomble]

Obviously a single stat doesn't paint a whole picture, but you have to start somewhere, as @sparky says there might be a reason...but its a starting point. 12's wouldnt have to cover the same width as a 13 normally so Gilbert couldnt use the same excuse as Reiko ...so when judging Gilbert we're a step closer to "not the best defender"

[antipodean]

@Frank said in 2025 All Blacks Squad v France:

@brodean said in 2025 All Blacks Squad v France:

Main difference with Fainga'anuku is his defensive accuracy. When he was at the Crusaders it was between 55% - 75%. He's bumped that up to 75.6% at Toulon this year. It's an improvement.

But if you look at the other midfield contenders he'd be near the bottom in Super Rugby:

Midfield Players by Tackle Success
93.3% Anton Lienert-Brown
91.3% Billy Proctor
91.3% Braydon Ennor
89.1% AJ Lam
88.7% Xavi Taele
88.4% Quinn Tupaea
86.1% Riley Higgins
85.9% Peter Umaga-Jensen
84.7% Levi Aumua
83.1% David Havili
83.0% Bailyn Sullivan
80.6% Rieko Ioane
80.0% Daniel Rona
80.0% Gideon Wrampling
79.7% Tanielu Tele'a
78.8% Lalomilo Lalomilo

I thought Rieko's tackle success would be higher.
I took his defense to be one of his strengths.

Rieko's numbers would be down given the ground he makes to even attempt covering tackles. While laughably those stats suggest Proctor is a better defender and we all know that's not true.

[Chris B.]

@antipodean A sort of "Glenn Phillips Effect"?

Glenn drops quite a few catches because he gets his hands to chances other people don't.

[Bones]

@antipodean said in 2025 All Blacks Squad v France:

we all know that's not true.

Im not sure we do...

[antipodean]

@Bones said in 2025 All Blacks Squad v France:

@antipodean said in 2025 All Blacks Squad v France:

we all know that's not true.

Im not sure we do...

In the kingdom of the blind

[reprobate]

There are definitely defensive systems which lead to more missed tackles. Any player charged with shooting up in the line to pressure ball carriers and prevent the ball getting wide will miss more than someone sitting back and waiting for the attacker.

[Wurzel]

@Chris-B said in 2025 All Blacks Squad v France:

@antipodean A sort of "Glenn Phillips Effect"?

Glenn drops quite a few catches because he gets his hands to chances other people don't.

GP also drops a bizarre number of sitters despite being one of the most athletic fielders to step onto a cricket field

[frugby]

@brodean said in 2025 All Blacks Squad v France:

@frugby said in 2025 All Blacks Squad v France:

Tackles success not always the best way to measure how good a defender someone is.

It's not the only way but when you're at the bottom it's not good no matter what way you spin it.

Not necessarily. Need to also consider how many tackles are being attempted, and how bad these missed tackles are. You also need to factor in, that if you don't attempt a tackle, you don't miss one either - so there is no stat which tells you a guy makes shit defensive reads.

Ioane attempted 108 tackles, 7.4% of which were dominant (which I would say is relevant for a midfielder).

Lienert-Brown has only attempted 30, 3.3% of which were dominant.

Proctor has only attempted 67 and is actually tackling at 86.6%, but is high for dominant tackles at 14.9% - but again, Proctor only played a handful of games, with only 2/7 being derbies (including one against the Highlanders)

Ennor 38 attempts, with high dominant tackles

Lam, Taelea, Tupaea, Higgins, Umaga-Jensen & Havili are all second-fives, so in theory are defending less space - shouldn't be comparing them on pure tackle success rate.

I think the biggest praise you could pay to Rieko, is the Blues conceded the least tries of anyone - that doesn't happen if your centre can't defend.

[brodean]

Midfield Players including overseas:

Tackle Success
93.3% Anton Lienert-Brown
91.3% Billy Proctor
91.3% Braydon Ennor
90.0% Jordie Barrett
89.1% AJ Lam
88.7% Xavi Taele
88.4% Quinn Tupaea
87.0% Timoci Tavatavanawai
86.1% Riley Higgins
85.9% Peter Umaga-Jensen
84.7% Levi Aumua
83.1% David Havili
83.0% Bailyn Sullivan
80.6% Rieko Ioane
80.0% Daniel Rona
80.0% Gideon Wrampling
79.7% Tanielu Tele'a
78.8% Lalomilo Lalomilo
75.6% Leicester Fainga'anuku
69.2% Tamati Tua

Tackles Per 80 Minutes
18.82 David Havili
13.02 Xavi Taele
12.45 Lalomilo Lalomilo
11.85 Quinn Tupaea
11.4 Levi Aumua
10.65 Gideon Wrampling
10.31 Billy Proctor
10.0 Jordie Barrett
9.93 Riley Higgins
9.65 Timoci Tavatavanawai
9.41 AJ Lam
9.04 Peter Umaga-Jensen
8.91 Bailyn Sullivan
8.12 Tanielu Tele'a
8.03 Daniel Rona
7.26 Rieko Ioane
7.19 Anton Lienert-Brown
7.16 Tamati Tua
6.89 Braydon Ennor
5.7 Leicester Fainga'anuku

[Kiwiwomble]

everyone storming in defending RI....@brodean didn't criticise him from what i read, was just in the list of other midfielders when working out where Fainga'anuku would sit....ie who is he overtaking from that list

[taniwharugby]

And often a missed tackle can be that someone else mis-read the line or missed thier tackle and you are wrong footed trying to cover thier miss.

Stats are great, but there are always variables.

[brodean]

Sure but when you're at the bottom of the Tackle % and Tackles Made Per 80 Minutes it's not a good look.

[Chris B.]

@Wurzel That is certainly true.

[Nogusta]

Leicester maybe Telea's replacement which may mean Telea will be selected for the French series.

Mark Telea playing for BaaBaas against the Boks so probably means he won't be involved with ABs this season.

[mariner4life]

@brodean said in 2025 All Blacks Squad v France:

Sure but when you're at the bottom of the Tackle % and Tackles Made Per 80 Minutes it's not a good look.

why?

12s make more tackles in a game than 13s.
12s make easier, mostly front on tackles during a game, while 13s make often sweeping tackles as they bounce in to out.
Comparing 12s and 13s with basic data like this is a completely meaningless exercise. And that's before you take in to consideration that no two team defends the same way.

I would imagine any defensive coach thinking their 13 is tackling above 80% is doing their job to a high standard.

[brodean]

@mariner4life

Well 76% is not above 80%

Also if we sorted these out for 12's and 13's he'd still be at the bottom for 13's.

[mariner4life]

are we talking about a certain player? i missed that.

[brodean]

@mariner4life said in 2025 All Blacks Squad v France:

are we talking about a certain player? i missed that.

Someone said Leicester Fainga'anuku should be fast tracked into the squad by replacing ALB and I suggested he's more likely to be in as a wing due to his defensive issues.

[gt12]

On ALB, I love him, but he either starts for me or doesn’t make the 23 - he’s been a penalty magnet off the bench, you cant make the tackles you miss because you are on the sideline with another YC.

Given that he either starts or doesn’t make the 23, I’m not sure he can hold his place - he shouldn’t be rated as top 2 at either 2nd five or center.

I’m not sure he makes the squad even if completely healthy.