The Silver Fern

Summary for the future squad :

Hookers :
Codie Taylor is a certainty;
Taukei'aho as well;
Aumua : has not fully recovered from a nasty injury. LO throwing still a work on.
Moananu : he could be a bolter as he is the best LO thrower in the country and has a very good workmate. Small but strong.

Loosehead props :
Tamaiti Williams : probably the best of the bunch. Strong scrummager, powerful in the loose, good hands. Defence not his strength.
Ethan de Groot : despite a poor SR rugby campaign (with the notable exception of the game against the Hurricanes), he should be in. Good scrummager but does not bring very much in the loose. Not many meters gained in regard to his impressive physique.
Olli Norris : he could be a bolter as his scrummaging is far better this year and he is the best ball carrier of them all. Good at shifting bodies in the rucks too.
George Bower : Solid servant with no weaknesses but without notable strength. He is a Crusader but his age could count against him.
Xavier Numia : he has not recovered from his long injury. Actually, he is a shadow of his former self. Not as dynamic as he used to be but scrums adequately. I don't see him join the squad.

Tight head props :
Lomax : best THP in the country. He is a certainty.
Tosi : not his best season that's for sure but he is beginning to regain some form. Won a penalty but conceded one against EdG on Friday. Powerful in the loose. He should be Lomax's understudy.
Fletcher Newell : seems to carry more effectively this year. Still a strong scrummager. He should be the third THP within the squad;
George Dyer : very good workrate and good if not dominant scrummager. He could be a bolter but this would be a big surprise as far as I am concerned.

Locks :
Scott Barrett : he is a certainty despite being rather anonymous this season. Will he retain his captaincy ?
Tupou Vai'i : best lock in the country ... by a country mile. Another certainty for the squad;
Patrick Tuipolutu : not a great SR season for him, hampered by a few niggles. His experience should prevail for a place in the squad.
Holland : he has not progressed as quickly as I expected but maybe it is because he is playing in a very collectively weak team. Very effective in disrupting opposition's throws at the LO, solid work in the rucks and mauls. His weakness is his lack of power in his ball carrying IMO; I think he will be selected thanks to Darry's injury.
Josh Lord : he is made of glass, despite having added a few Kgs to his frame. He is a contender but I don't see him get the nod.
Ah Kuoi : he is having a great SR season. Excellent workrate, uncompromising attitude. He may be a bit too light for an international lock.
Sam Darry : he could have been the squad's fourth lock but his injury will probably keep him out. He has all the qualities to become a world class lock IMO.
Walker-Leawere : his indiscipline should keep him out of contention. It's a shame because his power could be useful against the SA or French packs.
Antonio Shalfoon : he is the Crusaders best lock this year. I thought he was a journeyman but he did far better than I expected. He is a Crusader so he is a possibility for the squad.

Loose forwards :
Ardie Savea : a certainty. Will he become the team's captain ? He probably deserves it.
Wallace Sititi : another certainty despite his recent recovery from injury. He and Savea are both outstanding ball carriers.
Hoskins Sotutu : in terms of technique, he is probably the best Nr.8 in NZ. His lack of versatility might count against him.
Peter Lakai : he was outstanding against France last year and has played better and better after a slow start in the SR. A good player to have on the bench. He should be in.
Dalton Papali'i : very sound player who lacks the X-factor one could expect from such a gifted man. He could be in but he could also but out of the squad. Who knows ?
Jacobson : solid but not brillant. Anonymous in his outings with the ABs but very good with the Chiefs. He and Papali'i are the same type of players.
Finau : the big mystery. Physically imposing but does not impose himself at the upper level. If he plays to his potential, he could be a world beater. I think he will be in because of the lack of other valuable options.
Cullen Grace : solid, excellent at the lineout but physically a bit light for an international blindside flanker.
Ethan Blackadder : great workrate but does not have the expected impact, maybe because of his automatic injuries. One of Robertson's favorites so he might be in.
Du Plessis Kirifi : excellent at the breakdown but his lack of versatility might count against him. If Tavatavanawai is selected, then Kirifi could not be needed as they both play the same "jackaling" role.
Christian Lio-Willie : strong ball carrier but physically too limited for an international Nr.8 IMO. Plays for the Crusaders, though.

Halfbacks :
Cam Roigard : not his best season so far. Good passing, good kicking, but many unusual mistakes in this SR season. However, he is a certainty for the squad.
Cortez Ratima : not his best season as he has been seriously challenged by Roe. He should be in the squad though. I'd like the idea of having two distinct combos : Roigard/Love and Ratima/DMac in the 23.
Finlay Christie : I don't think he will make the squad because he has been rather meh so far.
Noah Hotham : he could be in though he is not the finished article yet. Snipes well but his passing is too slow.
Fakatava : snipes well too but his passing lets him down at times. Tends to make silly errors but he can be brillant.
Funaki : solid but does not play for the good team and is not yet the finished article.
Preston : plays for the Saders. Sharp pass but weak in defence. I don't think he will make it.

1st Five :
DMac : probably the best in the country. The Chiefs are a different team when he is not their playmaker.
Beauden Barrett : I guess he will be selected but more on his reputation than on his recent performances. Questionable goal and tactical kicking. However, he is still capable of showing glimpses of his former brillance.
Ruben Love : like the two above, he can play fullback and 1st Five. Brillant player with a thousand qualities. Questions about his game management as a 1st Five.

2nd Five :
Jordie Barrett : he is a certainty. 2nd Five is probably his best position.
David Havili : one of Robertson's favorites but has not done a lot at the upper level. Will he get selected while there are other younger options ?
Quinn Tupaea : solid and uncompromising but still has to prove his worth on the international scene. If Havili is in, then he would be out of the squad.
Riley Higgins : good passer and offloader but his defence is still a work on. I have doubts about his chances to get picked.
Tavatavanawai : he is a type of player the ABs never had in their ranks. He could bring something different. He is a constant menace at the breakdown and could be useful in a tight game where the ABs have to defend their line. He could be a bolter for the selection.

Centres :
Rieko Ioane : not a good year for him so far. He should be in, though, thanks to his anteriority and lack of experienced alternatives.
Billy Proctor : the best passing centre in NZ. He knows how to put a player into space. Good in defence, too. It would be a very bad surprise if he is not selected.
Tanielu Tele'a : strongest ball carrying centre in NZ. I don't know much about his defensive qualities. His versatility could make him a bolter for the squad.

Back three :
Will Jordan : he is a certainty, probably as a fullback but with three potential fullbacks (DMac, BB and Love), he could be pushed to the right wing.
Caleb Clarke : Not a good season for him but he has plenty of qualities (speed, strength and safety under the high balls) which will probably take him into the squad.
Sevu Reece : great workrate but his lack of speed against the likes of Bielle Biarrey and Kolbe could be a major deficiency. I really don't know whether he will be selected or not.
Mark Tele'a : he certainly knows how the slip through tackles but his lack of speed and the fact that he is heading overseas might count against him.
Emoni Narawa : no known weaknesses. Has been very good so far for the Chiefs.
AJ Lam : can play wing, 2nd Five and centre. Quick and powerful, he has already been in the AB squad and could well retain his place.
Leroy Carter : has entered the conversation lately. His defensive frailties and inexperience at the highest level could count against him.
Caleb Tangitau : a shame that he has been injured as he was the form winger before. His sheer speed is something the ABs did not have in their squad last year. He is not yet the finished article but I'd like to see him taken at least as an apprentice.
Shaun Stevenson : he has been very good for the Chiefs this year. Brillant in attack and big boot. Has not shown the defensive lapses he used to show the years before. Unfortunately he is leaving so he won't get picked.
Bailyn Sullivan : he has been great for the Hurricanes. Excellent tackler and opportunist try scorer. Despite these positive accomplishments, it would be a big surprise to see him getting selected.

Lomax 5 ? Did NZ Herald watch the same match as I did ? He held his own against arguably the best scrummaging LHP in the world and was very effective in the rucks, assuring quick ball thanks to his well timed and powerful cleaning. I would have given him an 8.

It's the end of the season so it's time to take stock.
The main lesson is : NZ depth is not so bad.
Props : De Groot and Lomax have stepped up nicely and are now world class, which was unthinkable at the beginning of the year. What is odd is that neither was in the ABs original squad. Bower and Newell seem to be the best options behind them. Ofa T and Ta'avao must not be written off though. Laulala has shown he is really past it. I don't see any of the younger props (Norris, Williams, Brewis) or of the older ones (Hodgman, Ross) being called into the future squad. But I may be wrong. The only exception would be Mafileo who has been very good for the Steamers and for the AB XV.

Hookers : Taylor is nearly back to his best. He and ST are certainties for the next WC, barring injuries, of course. The cupboard is rather bare behind them. Coles is always injured, Aumua does not have the trust of the selectors despite an excellent NPC, while Thompson hasn't got many playing minutes for the AB XV. McAllister was disappointing against the Barbarians. Was he carrying a niggling injury ? I reckon he is better than showed that day.

Locks : BBBR, SW and SB are among the best locks in the world, when fully fit. Behind them, the gap is huge. Patrick Tuipolutu has been disappointing - again - for the AB XV. He is not playing up to his inner qualities. Dickson is reliable but not world class, I fear. Vaai'i is another who has not played to the level we all expected from him. His development is not going too fast, to say the least. The RWC is one year too early for the likes of Gallagher, Sangster and Holland. They will probably feature in 2024. Lachlan McWhannell is - maybe - the most talented among the young locks. But he is made of glass. I hope he will show his worth during next year's SR.
I wouldn't mind having Dom Bird in the squad if he can keep on showing his form of the last stages of the NPC. At last, what about PPP ?

Blindside : SB is - for the moment - the best choice, as Akira Ioane and Shannon Frizell did not show any convincing displays. Ioane has the highest ceiling but he is not used where his strength would be the most effective. I would like to see more of MMT there. He has all the qualities required : brutal strength and high workrate. Let's see what Blackadder and Grace will show during next year's SR. Are they big enough for the job ? Luke Jacobson is a fine player but his lack of physicality - as shown during the Barbarians game - will probably keep him out of contention. He did OK against Ireland A when playing on the openside. Possible bolters for an AB squad : Tom Robinson, Caleb Delaney, Cameron Suafoa ? I don't believe they will be near a call into the ABs.

Openside : Dalton P is probably the best. Foster's choice for the next year should be interesting. Cane is the ABs captain but he would struggle to get a cap if he was French, English, Irish, Scottish, South African or even Italian (Lamaro is a far better player IMO). Behind those two, Harmon is probably the next in line and then, a lot of journeymen (Kirifi, Christie, Lentjes, Gibson, Choat). Let's see if Lakai could slip into this role. He is not big enough for an international Nr.8. Has he the qualities required for an openside LF ? I see him as a running 7, but not as a fetcher.

Nr.8 : Who behind Savea ? Sotutu is the next in line but hasn't delivered what we could expect from such a gifted player. MMT could be the big bruising Nr.8 needed for the international level. I still believe Akira Ioane's best position is Nr.8 as it is a looser role, with more ball carrying chances in the open where his pace and power are devastating. Let's forget Jacobson and Grace for this job as they are not physical enough. I don't believe in Lio-Willie's nor Flanders' chances to get a call.

Half-back : Who behind Aaron Smith ? TJP was outstanding for the AB XV and against Scotland but had a shocking brain explosion at Twickenham. What to expect from him next year ? Christie is not yet up to the task IMO. Maybe playing against the country of his birth was too much for him ?
Weber could be the safest option, though he is a liability in defence, as shown by the Barbarians. Will Fakatava be fit for the end of June ? If not, his chances to get a call should be very slim. I like what I saw of Ratima in his short cameo against the Barbarians. His delivery is quick and he is a danger around the rucks, so he keeps the defence guessing, which is good. He could be a bolter for next year's RWC, as could be Cam Roigard. This guy has nearly all the qualities for the job, experience aside. The problem is : for a RWC, you need experience.

1st Five : this is where the problem is the biggest for the ABs. though RM was voted man of the match vs England, I am among those who think that he had a shocker. Two missed touch findings have killed the forwards well done job and his inaptitude to kill the game in the last quarter is asking more questions than giving answers we were waiting for before the tour. DMac is the next in line now after BB's poor displays. He is more diamonds than rocks but those few rocks could be costly. I seriously doubt he could leapfrog RM next year.
And then there is Perofeta. The poor soul got only two minutes on the paddock during this NH tour. During these 120 seconds, he managed to show his kicking from hand is better than BB's though.

2nd Five : JB has cemented his place as there are no other good options, right now. Will Foster stick with Havili despite his costly blunders (against France last year and against Scotland a few days ago) and his inability to break a defensive line ? ALB is probably the safest option behind JB though he was very poor during the last quarter against England. He looked completely lost but this was probably due to a collective deficiency. Will Goodhue recover his fitness completely ? I rate him a lot. He is a calmhead player and his technical skills are excellent.
RTS has yet to show he is ready for the highest level. He was OKish during the SR and for the AB XV. He will surely be better next year. Alex Nankivell has shown a lot of improvements this year. If Havili is deemed big and physical enough for the job, then why not him ? He has a good ability to beat his opposite number in one / one situations. Then there are the UJ brothers. Both are always injured which is a shame, of course, as they are both talented. Thomas' profile could be useful in the international stage. I have doubts about his pace though.

Centre : RI is the only option at the present time. ALB had a shocker against Scotland but he was coming back from a long injury. Let's see if he and Goodhue will retrieve their qualities pre-injuries. The other options are LF and Ennor, but I don't see them earn a call there for the RWC. And then B. Sullivan (not yet ready for the higher level) and Aumua (eligibility ?).

Left wing : The incumbent is Clarke. He did well against England but he is not yet the finished product. The other options are : LF (I am not sure of his finishing capabilities), Reece and Telea. The latter two seem more comfortable on the right wing. AJ Lam has a lot of qualities but seems not concerned at times. In terms of physical wing, I'd have him above LF in the rankings. Rayasi is incredibly gifted but his mindset is questionable. He is rocks and diamonds. I like his left foot which is something lacking in the ABs. Ennor could be used there if really needed.

Right wing : Telea's tour has been a big success. NZ are blessed with three quality men there (Telea, Jordan, Reece). Can Stevenson break into the AB squad ? He has so much talent.

Full back : BB is the incumbent but many think Will Jordan should be a better option. JB is now used as a 2nd five and we all hope he will stay there. DMac, Love, Stevenson and Moorby are the other options.

Lack of physicality up front for the AB XV. Christie was everywhere but he is not strong enough to be effective. Jacobson was outmuscled by Mercer. Gardiner was good in open play but was nowhere to be seen in the tight exchanges. Tamaiti Williams is not a tight head prop. Even in the NPC, he was not at ease on this side of the scrum. He should concentrate on the loose head IMO but with Jager out, I fear the Crusaders will use him on the tight head as they have Moody (?), Bower and Brewis for the Nr.1 jersey. McAllister had a game to forget. Makalio did better when he came in. Dickson was very good during the first spell before fading during the second. I was expecting more from PT. A few strong carries though. Aidan Ross was solid but failed to show that he is AB material. Cortima brought his dynamism and strength when he came in. He was pretty good. DMac tried too much at times, but we are used to it. He showed a few moments of sheer brilliance, such as his pass for the first try and his kick for Stevenson. The latter again showed his class but seemed lost at times. His positioning was caught badly a few times. He is a better wing than fullback IMO. Nankivell was outstanding till his injury. Sullivan did well when he came in and showed his pace. Aumua and Heem were mostly anonymous. All in all, it seems that the team lineup against Ireland A was far better, particularly in the loose forwards.

England were under the pump till the 71st minute, but the ABs should have nailed the coffin long before. There were costly errors when the NZ forwards were destroying their English counterparts : two crooked throws by Taylor and two missed kicks by RM after favorable penalties.

The composition of the bench was stupid. If you do not want to play Havili until the last minute (and he came in only because of TJP's injury), then why not have chosen a 6 : 2 split ? Barrett was replaced by Frizell, which left BBBR and SW on the field for 80 minutes. Their legs just could not follow the rythm during the last quarter. A lock (Vaai'i) should have been named on the bench.

I know most of the Ferners prefer Mo'unga to BB but the latter launched his backline perfectly against the Argies last Sunday. It was smooth and direct. I can't remember Mo'unga doing the same with the black jersey. Of course, Mo'unga is a far better goalkicker but with Jordie taking the goalkicking duties, this could not be a problem anymore. Moreover, defensively, BB is superior to RM, IMO.

I still think Akira is the long term AB six. His power in countering the opposition's mauls must not be overlooked, while he was the only forward to make offensive tackles. I can remember one occasion when Malherbe lost about six or seven meters against him.

For the All Blacks, winning three of the four last RWCs would also be an enormous achievement.

Ireland are favorably refereed in the rucks. How many times did they contest the ball without being on their feet ? That was already the case against the All Blacks.

Simon Parker was excellent. His pass to Tupaea was sublime. And his cleaning in the rucks allowed quick ball. Very good ball carrying too.

Current status :

Hookers : Codie Taylor's loss of form is an issue as Dane Coles is still out with injury. That leaves only ST as international class hooker. Eklund is currently the second best Nr.2.

LHP : Moody's injury leaves a gap. The contenders are Bower, Karl T (not yet on the scene), Hodgman, De Groot and Ross. I would think the last three are the best bet.

THP : Ofa T is way above the rest. Newell could be the answer as his backup as Laulala, Ta'avao and Lomax have been very disappointing.

Locks : Barrett and Retallick are certainties. Vaa'i and Lord should be in the squad. Romano is too old but his physicality would have been helpful against Ireland. Is Whitelock really too old or is it just a lack of form ?

Blindside : Akira Ioane would be my first on the sheet. Jacobson and Blackadder are versatile and have a good workrate. I'd have them in the squad.

Openside : Cane is the captain and is playing well, so he won't be dropped. It's a shame for Papali'i who is the best 7 on current form.

Nr.8 : Ardie Savea is probably considered exclusively as a Nr.8 these days. Sotutu is probably the second best behind him. Sowakula's recent drop of form could alter his chances of winning a call.

Halfbacks : Smith of course. But who behind him ? Christie is the form Nr.9. Fakatava is regaining some form lately, which is not the case for TJP. Weber was poor before his injury.

1st Five : big problem here as there are two world class players (Barrett and Mo'unga) but not necessarily two good 1st Fives, and nobody behind them (Perofeta maybe ?). So the cupboard is really bare.

2nd Five : Havili's loss of form and confidence could cost him his place in the squad. I'd like Foster to try something new with TUJ and/or RTS, along with Tupaea.

Centre : Rieko and Sullivan are the best performers. I would be glad to see the latter as a bolter in the next squad. Let's see how Goodhue come back during the next week.

Wings : Reece is consistently good. He'll be on the starting team sheet. Jordan will also be there as there are not a lot of possibilities : Clarke and Bridge (unfortunately). LF is not playing his best rugby, while Savea and Rayasi are rocks and diamonds. Lam as a bolter ?

Fullbacks : JB with Jordan as his backup. Too early for Moorby and Sullivan. Perofeta ?

So the ABs finished the game with the following forwards :

Karl Tu'inukuafe
Liam Coltman
Ofa T
Scott Barrett
Jackson Hemopo
Shannon Frizell
Matt Todd
Luke Whitelock

Who could have guessed that at the beginning of the season ?

People in this forum are great fans of Richie Mounga. He's had a mare : missed an easy tackle on Daly who is not the quickest fullback nor the strongest one (this led to England's first try), then could not handle the English rush defence. Let's hope he'll learn from this very disappointing performance.
The Bounga experiment was clearly a failure with BB's kicking from hand being an issue. Would DMac have done better ?

I’d live to see a backrow with Ioane, Jacobson and Papali’i, with Savea off the bench.

The referee made two errors against the New Zealanders : the penalty for Matera's turnover and the harsh one against Mighty Williams in the scrum, when the Argentine THP had clearly lost his bind. Otherwise, I thought he was pretty good. His decisions were clear and he let the game flow.

Possible names :
LHP : Ethan de Groot. Questions about his fitness but was Karl T fitter ? Brings physicality. Scrummaging Okayish.
Ollie Norris : Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde. Very good for the Maoris in the first test, poor in the second. Maybe one year too early for him.
Tamaiti Williams : can play on both sides of the scrum, which could be a bonus. He is the one with the highest ceiling. His scrummaging is head scratching as he can dominate his opponent in one scrum and then being monstered in the following one.
Hodgman : great workrate, scrummaging not so good.

THP :
Tyrel Lomax : penalty magnet and tits for hands. Can scrum and good workrate.
Fletcher Newell : Good scrummager and dynamic in the loose, occasionally. Lacks experience.
Olli Jager : not outstanding but solid in most phases. Would not do worse than Nepo nor Ofa anyway.

Hookers :
Asafo Aumua. Upside : his strength. Downside : tends to go missing.
George Bell : too young, of course. Could he be taken as an apprentice ?
Brodie McAllister : he is the type of player who won't let you down. Journeyman though.
Thompson : he has a very high ceiling IMO; he is the NZ Malcom Marx but his LO throwing has to improve drastically.

Locks :
Josh Dickson. He could be the new Keith Robinson. Not brillant but solid in every facet of a lock play.
MSR : his criminal record does not favor him. Big man with good hands and mongrel. His showing for the Maoris against Ireland does not plead for him.
IWL : big and strong. I would prefer him over PT. Mobility questionable.
Goodhue : he's leaving so nah. Was part of a dominated front five in the SRP final.
Gallagher and Sangster : both need a watch for the future, but it's too early for them.
Quinten Strange : journeyman. Strengths : ? Won't let the side down though.

Loose forwards :
Cullen Grace : the main favorite to get into the squad. Excellent LO jumper, mobile and hard hitter in defense. Ball carrying not so flashy.
Shannon Frizzel : good workrate but does not deliver at the highest level.
Luke Jacobson : defense good, ball carrying good, but goes missing occasionally.
Tom Robinson : great workrate, good LO jumper. Ball carrying in the tight not so good as he lacks sheer power.

Halfbacks :
Brad Weber : has plenty of experience but passing sloppy at times.
TJP : plenty of experience too. Very good in defense but his passing is slow and very inaccurate most of the time.

1st Five :
DMac : would displace Stephen Perofeta who did not have a single opportunity to show his worth.

2nd Five :
Thomas Umaga-Jensen : big and strong but not very fast. Defense questionable. Would bring something different to the midfield.
Alex Nankivell : was brillant during the first rounds of the SRP then his form slipped down. Very poor outing for the Maoris.

Centre :
Bailyn Sullivan : Outstanding with the Canes when given the opportunity. Poor display for the Maoris against Ireland. Does not look like an international centre, for the moment.

Wings :
Mark Telea : is he considered as being a member of the current squad ? Can break tackles and be brillant. Tends to blunder badly as well.
Lam : big, strong and fast. Very dangerous with ball in hand. Defense ? Reliability under the high ball ?

Full back :
Zarn Sullivan. This man can kick from hand and he can run too. Brillant future IMO.

I think that Akira Ioane must start against Ireland as the Irish love to make relentless drives with their forwards. He is able to set them on the backfoot with his offensive tackles. Blackadder has a huge workrate but is not as efficient as Akira Ioane in this respect.

Bolters XV

Norris
Moananu
Dyer
Holland
Beehre
Howden
Ķirifi
Parker
Roe
Reihana
Carter
Tavatavanawai
Tele'a
Tangitau
Kneepkens

A few remarks after a second viewing :

The AB forwards were very poor at the breakdown. The loose forwards did not compete in the rucks, letting the Japanese get quick ball.
The problems at the LO came from a bad coordination between the thrower (Taukei'aho), the jumper (Vaai'i) and his lifters. The quality of the throwing looked OK to me.
Defense is a worry. The Japanese missed a few important tackles because some of their players are not up to it, but their general organization in that respect was excellent. Mitchell is a very good defense coach (as he showed for England), better than McLeod IMO.
Scrum was very good but it was only Japan. The problem is that both starting props bring nothing in the loose but this is not new.
Ennor did better than what transpired through the Ferners comments. He was not bad but he clearly came second best behind Riley.
RTS did not make a single error. His passing was good. But is he a second five ? He does not seem to know when and how to kick.
Kicking was dreadful. Christie and Mo'unga had a mare in that respect. The latter was standing flat and static, which is surprising against a rush defense. His kicking from the tee was perfect though.
Perofeta did well when he was used as the first receiver. He is certainly a better 1st Five than full back. I would not blame him too severely for his blunders as he had very few minutes on the paddock for months.