All Blacks 2025

Bovidae

I don't see any of the main AB props there either. That's also part of the problem if your effective ball-carriers are so few.

nonpartizan

@brodean said in All Blacks 2025:

Tuipulotu basically smashes the line fairly consistently when he's on and it works for us. He's very underrated imo and should be starting with Holland.

Here are the loose forward stats from Super Rugby:

Carries Committing 2+ Tacklers
76.7% Cam Christie
76.5% Oliver Haig
75.1% Semisi Tupou Ta'eiloa
74.6% Luke Jacobson
70.3% TK Howden
69.8% Corey Kellow
69.6% Ardie Savea
68.9% Hoskins Sotutu
68.2% Anton Segner
67.9% Du'Plessis Kirifi

Dominant Carry %
56.1 Vaiolini Ekuasi
45.7 Peter Lakai
44.2 Veveni Lasaqa
43.8 Luke Jacobson
43.1 TK Howden
39.4 Brayden Iose
39.4 Jahrome Brown
39.2 Simon Parker
39.1 Sean Withy
37.2 Cam Christie

Gainline %
73.6 Veveni Lasaqa
73.5 Jahrome Brown
72.1 Vaiolini Ekuasi
71.1 Samipeni Finau
70.8 Hoskins Sotutu
69.6 Simon Parker
68.8 Ardie Savea
68.3 Christian Lio-Willie
68.2 Anton Segner
66.7 Peter Lakai

Tackle Evasion %
34.6 Veveni Lasaqa
26.7 Ardie Savea
22.8 Dalton Papali'i
20.0 Jahrome Brown
19.5 Luke Jacobson
18.9 Christian Lio-Willie
18.4 Du'Plessis Kirifi
18.3 Brayden Iose
16.7 Hoskins Sotutu
15.8 Oliver Haig

Sititi isn't in the top 10 for any of these stats. I realise he didn't play much and was coming back from injury but I will point at these metrics are percentage based.

These are the players who appear the most.

Luke Jacobson: (in "Carries Committing 2+ Tacklers," "Dominant Carry %," and "Tackle Evasion %").
Ardie Savea: (in "Carries Committing 2+ Tacklers," "Gainline %," and "Tackle Evasion %").
Jahrome Brown: (in "Dominant Carry %," "Gainline %," and "Tackle Evasion %").
Veveni Lasaqa: (in "Dominant Carry %," "Gainline %," and "Tackle Evasion %").
Hoskins Sotutu: (in "Carries Committing 2+ Tacklers," "Gainline %," and "Tackle Evasion %").

It would be good if there was a loose forward who appeared in top 10 for the following 3 but there isn't:

Carries Committing 2+ Tacklers
Dominant Carry %,
Gainline %,"

Patrick Tuipulotu appears in top 10 for all 3 for locks.

Forwards Carries Committing 2+ Tacklers
82.3% Xavier Numia
76.9% Ollie Norris
76.7% Cam Christie
76.5% Asafo Aumua
76.5% Oliver Haig
75.1% Semisi Tupou Ta'eiloa
75.0% Pasilio Tosi
74.6% Luke Jacobson
73.6% Patrick Tuipulotu
73.3% Tevita Mafile'o

Backs Carries Committing 2+ Tacklers
82.1% Julian Savea
75.3% AJ Lam
71.6% Timoci Tavatavanawai
67.0% Quinn Tupaea
65.0% Leicester Fainga'anuku ( France )
64.0% Anton Lienert-Brown
63.6% Peter Umaga-Jensen
63.6% Dallas McLeod
61.5% Billy Proctor
59.7% Thomas Umaga-Jensen

FYI Lasaqa hits bugger all rucks and makes bugger all tackles.

Wow, looks like AJ Lam had an even stronger case than I at first thought for AB selection this year.

Based on eye test I thought he could have made it - those carry stats really enforce that view.

brodean

@Bovidae said in All Blacks 2025:

I don't see any of the main AB props there either. That's also part of the problem if your effective ball-carriers are so few.

Yeah I think 1 or 2 of Tosi and Norris should always in the 23 when avfailable.

gt12

@brodean said in All Blacks 2025:

Tuipulotu basically smashes the line fairly consistently when he's on and it works for us. He's very underrated imo and should be starting with Holland.

Here are the loose forward stats from Super Rugby:

Carries Committing 2+ Tacklers
76.7% Cam Christie
76.5% Oliver Haig
75.1% Semisi Tupou Ta'eiloa
74.6% Luke Jacobson
70.3% TK Howden
69.8% Corey Kellow
69.6% Ardie Savea
68.9% Hoskins Sotutu
68.2% Anton Segner
67.9% Du'Plessis Kirifi

Dominant Carry %
56.1 Vaiolini Ekuasi
45.7 Peter Lakai
44.2 Veveni Lasaqa
43.8 Luke Jacobson
43.1 TK Howden
39.4 Brayden Iose
39.4 Jahrome Brown
39.2 Simon Parker
39.1 Sean Withy
37.2 Cam Christie

Gainline %
73.6 Veveni Lasaqa
73.5 Jahrome Brown
72.1 Vaiolini Ekuasi
71.1 Samipeni Finau
70.8 Hoskins Sotutu
69.6 Simon Parker
68.8 Ardie Savea
68.3 Christian Lio-Willie
68.2 Anton Segner
66.7 Peter Lakai

Tackle Evasion %
34.6 Veveni Lasaqa
26.7 Ardie Savea
22.8 Dalton Papali'i
20.0 Jahrome Brown
19.5 Luke Jacobson
18.9 Christian Lio-Willie
18.4 Du'Plessis Kirifi
18.3 Brayden Iose
16.7 Hoskins Sotutu
15.8 Oliver Haig

Sititi isn't in the top 10 for any of these stats. I realise he didn't play much and was coming back from injury but I will point at these metrics are percentage based.

These are the players who appear the most.

Luke Jacobson: (in "Carries Committing 2+ Tacklers," "Dominant Carry %," and "Tackle Evasion %").
Ardie Savea: (in "Carries Committing 2+ Tacklers," "Gainline %," and "Tackle Evasion %").
Jahrome Brown: (in "Dominant Carry %," "Gainline %," and "Tackle Evasion %").
Veveni Lasaqa: (in "Dominant Carry %," "Gainline %," and "Tackle Evasion %").
Hoskins Sotutu: (in "Carries Committing 2+ Tacklers," "Gainline %," and "Tackle Evasion %").

It would be good if there was a loose forward who appeared in top 10 for the following 3 but there isn't:

Carries Committing 2+ Tacklers
Dominant Carry %,
Gainline %,"

Patrick Tuipulotu appears in top 10 for all 3 for locks.

Forwards Carries Committing 2+ Tacklers
82.3% Xavier Numia
76.9% Ollie Norris
76.7% Cam Christie
76.5% Asafo Aumua
76.5% Oliver Haig
75.1% Semisi Tupou Ta'eiloa
75.0% Pasilio Tosi
74.6% Luke Jacobson
73.6% Patrick Tuipulotu
73.3% Tevita Mafile'o

Backs Carries Committing 2+ Tacklers
82.1% Julian Savea
75.3% AJ Lam
71.6% Timoci Tavatavanawai
67.0% Quinn Tupaea
65.0% Leicester Fainga'anuku ( France )
64.0% Anton Lienert-Brown
63.6% Peter Umaga-Jensen
63.6% Dallas McLeod
61.5% Billy Proctor
59.7% Thomas Umaga-Jensen

FYI Lasaqa hits bugger all rucks and makes bugger all tackles.

I appreciate the stats and the percentages do make comparisons easier, but would you happen to have the carries per 80 mins as well?
Sorry if I missed it and you had a stipulation, but a guy who commits 2 tacklers 75% of the time, but only runs twice a game isn't that useful in comparison to guy who commits 2 tacklers 60% of the time, but runs 12 times a game.

brodean

@gt12 said in All Blacks 2025:

@brodean said in All Blacks 2025:

Tuipulotu basically smashes the line fairly consistently when he's on and it works for us. He's very underrated imo and should be starting with Holland.

Here are the loose forward stats from Super Rugby:

Carries Committing 2+ Tacklers
76.7% Cam Christie
76.5% Oliver Haig
75.1% Semisi Tupou Ta'eiloa
74.6% Luke Jacobson
70.3% TK Howden
69.8% Corey Kellow
69.6% Ardie Savea
68.9% Hoskins Sotutu
68.2% Anton Segner
67.9% Du'Plessis Kirifi

Dominant Carry %
56.1 Vaiolini Ekuasi
45.7 Peter Lakai
44.2 Veveni Lasaqa
43.8 Luke Jacobson
43.1 TK Howden
39.4 Brayden Iose
39.4 Jahrome Brown
39.2 Simon Parker
39.1 Sean Withy
37.2 Cam Christie

Gainline %
73.6 Veveni Lasaqa
73.5 Jahrome Brown
72.1 Vaiolini Ekuasi
71.1 Samipeni Finau
70.8 Hoskins Sotutu
69.6 Simon Parker
68.8 Ardie Savea
68.3 Christian Lio-Willie
68.2 Anton Segner
66.7 Peter Lakai

Tackle Evasion %
34.6 Veveni Lasaqa
26.7 Ardie Savea
22.8 Dalton Papali'i
20.0 Jahrome Brown
19.5 Luke Jacobson
18.9 Christian Lio-Willie
18.4 Du'Plessis Kirifi
18.3 Brayden Iose
16.7 Hoskins Sotutu
15.8 Oliver Haig

Sititi isn't in the top 10 for any of these stats. I realise he didn't play much and was coming back from injury but I will point at these metrics are percentage based.

These are the players who appear the most.

Luke Jacobson: (in "Carries Committing 2+ Tacklers," "Dominant Carry %," and "Tackle Evasion %").
Ardie Savea: (in "Carries Committing 2+ Tacklers," "Gainline %," and "Tackle Evasion %").
Jahrome Brown: (in "Dominant Carry %," "Gainline %," and "Tackle Evasion %").
Veveni Lasaqa: (in "Dominant Carry %," "Gainline %," and "Tackle Evasion %").
Hoskins Sotutu: (in "Carries Committing 2+ Tacklers," "Gainline %," and "Tackle Evasion %").

It would be good if there was a loose forward who appeared in top 10 for the following 3 but there isn't:

Carries Committing 2+ Tacklers
Dominant Carry %,
Gainline %,"

Patrick Tuipulotu appears in top 10 for all 3 for locks.

Forwards Carries Committing 2+ Tacklers
82.3% Xavier Numia
76.9% Ollie Norris
76.7% Cam Christie
76.5% Asafo Aumua
76.5% Oliver Haig
75.1% Semisi Tupou Ta'eiloa
75.0% Pasilio Tosi
74.6% Luke Jacobson
73.6% Patrick Tuipulotu
73.3% Tevita Mafile'o

Backs Carries Committing 2+ Tacklers
82.1% Julian Savea
75.3% AJ Lam
71.6% Timoci Tavatavanawai
67.0% Quinn Tupaea
65.0% Leicester Fainga'anuku ( France )
64.0% Anton Lienert-Brown
63.6% Peter Umaga-Jensen
63.6% Dallas McLeod
61.5% Billy Proctor
59.7% Thomas Umaga-Jensen

FYI Lasaqa hits bugger all rucks and makes bugger all tackles.

I appreciate the stats and the percentages do make comparisons easier, but would you happen to have the carries per 80 mins as well?
Sorry if I missed it and you had a stipulation, but a guy who commits 2 tacklers 75% of the time, but only runs twice a game isn't that useful in comparison to guy who commits 2 tacklers 60% of the time, but runs 12 times a game.

That's a valid question worth exploring but I would suggest that if we select several players in the onfield 15 who commit 2 tacklers to a high percentage then you can share the carries across those players which keeps the opposition guessing as to who is going to be the guy that bends the line.

No Quarter

@taniwharugby said in All Blacks 2025:

@No-Quarter not sure you can throw much at Razor, Ryan yes, but not Razor.

Ryan became part of Fozzies team who had not really utilised him either, so that stems back beyond Razor.

Oh yeah it's mostly Ryan, but Razor is head coach so can tell Ryan to make it work, like Henry did to Hansen when he didn't like a players "attitude". Also, I've heard a lot of comments that Razor is in charge or at least has a lot of say on the loosies, which is probably why we have so many ineffective vanilla players that resemble him in his playing days.

nostrildamus

@No-Quarter said in All Blacks 2025:

@taniwharugby said in All Blacks 2025:

@No-Quarter not sure you can throw much at Razor, Ryan yes, but not Razor.

Ryan became part of Fozzies team who had not really utilised him either, so that stems back beyond Razor.

Oh yeah it's mostly Ryan, but Razor is head coach so can tell Ryan to make it work, like Henry did to Hansen when he didn't like a players "attitude". Also, I've heard a lot of comments that Razor is in charge or at least has a lot of say on the loosies, which is probably why we have so many ineffective vanilla players that resemble him in his playing days.

Yes I'm pretty certain I have read somewhere Razor said he was responsible for selecting the loosies.

brodean

@nostrildamus said in All Blacks 2025:

@No-Quarter said in All Blacks 2025:

@taniwharugby said in All Blacks 2025:

@No-Quarter not sure you can throw much at Razor, Ryan yes, but not Razor.

Ryan became part of Fozzies team who had not really utilised him either, so that stems back beyond Razor.

Oh yeah it's mostly Ryan, but Razor is head coach so can tell Ryan to make it work, like Henry did to Hansen when he didn't like a players "attitude". Also, I've heard a lot of comments that Razor is in charge or at least has a lot of say on the loosies, which is probably why we have so many ineffective vanilla players that resemble him in his playing days.

Yes I'm pretty certain I have read somewhere Razor said he was responsible for selecting the loosies.

He definitely did at the start of last year but then Ryan said he had ultimate say over the forwards in a podcast after last years first naming. Haven't heard anything since.

ShaquilleOatmeal

@brodean said in All Blacks 2025:

@nostrildamus said in All Blacks 2025:

@No-Quarter said in All Blacks 2025:

@taniwharugby said in All Blacks 2025:

@No-Quarter not sure you can throw much at Razor, Ryan yes, but not Razor.

Ryan became part of Fozzies team who had not really utilised him either, so that stems back beyond Razor.

Oh yeah it's mostly Ryan, but Razor is head coach so can tell Ryan to make it work, like Henry did to Hansen when he didn't like a players "attitude". Also, I've heard a lot of comments that Razor is in charge or at least has a lot of say on the loosies, which is probably why we have so many ineffective vanilla players that resemble him in his playing days.

Yes I'm pretty certain I have read somewhere Razor said he was responsible for selecting the loosies.

He definitely did at the start of last year but then Ryan said he had ultimate say over the forwards in a podcast after last years first naming. Haven't heard anything since.

“Ultimate say”? That is absolutely crazy. That’s adding to my theory that Robertson is a motivator and leaves the coaching to others.

taniwharugby

@ShaquilleOatmeal that line of thinking has been about for many years

brodean

@ShaquilleOatmeal said in All Blacks 2025:

@brodean said in All Blacks 2025:

@nostrildamus said in All Blacks 2025:

@No-Quarter said in All Blacks 2025:

@taniwharugby said in All Blacks 2025:

@No-Quarter not sure you can throw much at Razor, Ryan yes, but not Razor.

Ryan became part of Fozzies team who had not really utilised him either, so that stems back beyond Razor.

Oh yeah it's mostly Ryan, but Razor is head coach so can tell Ryan to make it work, like Henry did to Hansen when he didn't like a players "attitude". Also, I've heard a lot of comments that Razor is in charge or at least has a lot of say on the loosies, which is probably why we have so many ineffective vanilla players that resemble him in his playing days.

Yes I'm pretty certain I have read somewhere Razor said he was responsible for selecting the loosies.

He definitely did at the start of last year but then Ryan said he had ultimate say over the forwards in a podcast after last years first naming. Haven't heard anything since.

“Ultimate say”? That is absolutely crazy. That’s adding to my theory that Robertson is a motivator and leaves the coaching to others.

Correct.

With regards to Ryan's selections these are my thoughts ( assume he had main say when he was with Foster too ). These are the players that debuted with him as forwards coach.

Prop
Tamaiti Williams
Pasilio Tosi
Ollie Norris

Good selections for props.

Lock
Sam Darry
Fabian Holland

Good selections for locks.

Loose Forwards
Christian Lio-Willie
Du'plessis Kirifi
Peter Lakai
Samipeni Finau
Wallace Sititi

Picking Lio-Willie and Kirifi over the likes of Papali'i, Sotutu and even Blackadder was a mistake imo. There is just too many small guys in our loose forwards mix. We have the smallest loose forwards mix in the Rugby Championship and the days of outfitting teams are over.
.
Picking Jacobson this year when he hasn't even been fit.

Picking Blackadder/Jacobson last year over Sotutu/Ioane.

Including Vaa'i - picking 5 Chiefs loose forwards this year when they fail every year in SRP finals. They fail to hold their line and they fail to get over the line against the muscled up finals defences. It's the same for Cane's loosies. They do not deliver come finals time when things are on the line. Yet our loose forwards are made up entirely of Chiefs, Canes, and one from the MP bottom dwellers.

The fact that we currently have zero Blue's and Crusaders loose forwards despite their finals results over the last 5 years in the squad is crazy.

Ryan has squandered our loose forward strength.

Hooker
George Bell
Brodie Mcalister

Bell played ok for the AB's but ultimately Ryan picked two guys who were poor lineout throwers compared to Ricky Riccitelli. Riccitelli should have been selected last year and this was a big mistake by Ryan because now he's signed overseas. I don't see the upside of Mcalister. Yes he's strong but he's as slow as a prop and he can't throw to save his life.

ACT Crusader

@taniwharugby said in All Blacks 2025:

@stodders and yet we kick so much possession away.

A much better pass/kicking ratio by the ABs on the weekend. 1 kick for every 13 passes. Far more positive with the ball.

brodean

@ACT-Crusader said in All Blacks 2025:

@taniwharugby said in All Blacks 2025:

@stodders and yet we kick so much possession away.

A much better pass/kicking ratio by the ABs on the weekend. 1 kick for every 13 passes. Far more positive with the ball.

That was noticable during the game.

gt12

@brodean said in All Blacks 2025:

@gt12 said in All Blacks 2025:

@brodean said in All Blacks 2025:

Tuipulotu basically smashes the line fairly consistently when he's on and it works for us. He's very underrated imo and should be starting with Holland.

Here are the loose forward stats from Super Rugby:

Carries Committing 2+ Tacklers
76.7% Cam Christie
76.5% Oliver Haig
75.1% Semisi Tupou Ta'eiloa
74.6% Luke Jacobson
70.3% TK Howden
69.8% Corey Kellow
69.6% Ardie Savea
68.9% Hoskins Sotutu
68.2% Anton Segner
67.9% Du'Plessis Kirifi

Dominant Carry %
56.1 Vaiolini Ekuasi
45.7 Peter Lakai
44.2 Veveni Lasaqa
43.8 Luke Jacobson
43.1 TK Howden
39.4 Brayden Iose
39.4 Jahrome Brown
39.2 Simon Parker
39.1 Sean Withy
37.2 Cam Christie

Gainline %
73.6 Veveni Lasaqa
73.5 Jahrome Brown
72.1 Vaiolini Ekuasi
71.1 Samipeni Finau
70.8 Hoskins Sotutu
69.6 Simon Parker
68.8 Ardie Savea
68.3 Christian Lio-Willie
68.2 Anton Segner
66.7 Peter Lakai

Tackle Evasion %
34.6 Veveni Lasaqa
26.7 Ardie Savea
22.8 Dalton Papali'i
20.0 Jahrome Brown
19.5 Luke Jacobson
18.9 Christian Lio-Willie
18.4 Du'Plessis Kirifi
18.3 Brayden Iose
16.7 Hoskins Sotutu
15.8 Oliver Haig

Sititi isn't in the top 10 for any of these stats. I realise he didn't play much and was coming back from injury but I will point at these metrics are percentage based.

These are the players who appear the most.

Luke Jacobson: (in "Carries Committing 2+ Tacklers," "Dominant Carry %," and "Tackle Evasion %").
Ardie Savea: (in "Carries Committing 2+ Tacklers," "Gainline %," and "Tackle Evasion %").
Jahrome Brown: (in "Dominant Carry %," "Gainline %," and "Tackle Evasion %").
Veveni Lasaqa: (in "Dominant Carry %," "Gainline %," and "Tackle Evasion %").
Hoskins Sotutu: (in "Carries Committing 2+ Tacklers," "Gainline %," and "Tackle Evasion %").

It would be good if there was a loose forward who appeared in top 10 for the following 3 but there isn't:

Carries Committing 2+ Tacklers
Dominant Carry %,
Gainline %,"

Patrick Tuipulotu appears in top 10 for all 3 for locks.

Forwards Carries Committing 2+ Tacklers
82.3% Xavier Numia
76.9% Ollie Norris
76.7% Cam Christie
76.5% Asafo Aumua
76.5% Oliver Haig
75.1% Semisi Tupou Ta'eiloa
75.0% Pasilio Tosi
74.6% Luke Jacobson
73.6% Patrick Tuipulotu
73.3% Tevita Mafile'o

Backs Carries Committing 2+ Tacklers
82.1% Julian Savea
75.3% AJ Lam
71.6% Timoci Tavatavanawai
67.0% Quinn Tupaea
65.0% Leicester Fainga'anuku ( France )
64.0% Anton Lienert-Brown
63.6% Peter Umaga-Jensen
63.6% Dallas McLeod
61.5% Billy Proctor
59.7% Thomas Umaga-Jensen

FYI Lasaqa hits bugger all rucks and makes bugger all tackles.

I appreciate the stats and the percentages do make comparisons easier, but would you happen to have the carries per 80 mins as well?
Sorry if I missed it and you had a stipulation, but a guy who commits 2 tacklers 75% of the time, but only runs twice a game isn't that useful in comparison to guy who commits 2 tacklers 60% of the time, but runs 12 times a game.

That's a valid question worth exploring but I would suggest that if we select several players in the onfield 15 who commit 2 tacklers to a high percentage then you can share the carries across those players which keeps the opposition guessing as to who is going to be the guy that bends the line.

Two points:

Issue with reversion to the mean

My reason for asking is that if a guy only has two runs a game for 75% gainline, versus another with 12 for 65%, we should likely expect that the first guy will go down to 65% (or worse) as his number of runs increases.

Equally, there could be guys with 50% gainline on two runs who could rise to 75% if they had 12 runs.

Sharing the carries

Given that teams play to specific patterns, you'll need certain players with different skillsets, so while I agree that - all other things being constant - running threats across the park are important, in reality we'll have some guys who do a lot of the heavy lifting in that area. Three really effective ball runners across a forward pack may be much better than 8 average ball runners, assuming there is an attack strategy built to put them in the right places.

hikastags

@Frank said in All Blacks 2025:

Who are the hardest running loose forwards in NZ?
As in full steam ahead in a straight line, no jinking.
Do we have any?

Semisi Tupou Ta'eiloa, Brayden Iose, Dom Gardiner, Cam Christie come to mind.

nostrildamus

@brodean said in All Blacks 2025:

@nostrildamus said in All Blacks 2025:

@No-Quarter said in All Blacks 2025:

@taniwharugby said in All Blacks 2025:

@No-Quarter not sure you can throw much at Razor, Ryan yes, but not Razor.

Ryan became part of Fozzies team who had not really utilised him either, so that stems back beyond Razor.

Oh yeah it's mostly Ryan, but Razor is head coach so can tell Ryan to make it work, like Henry did to Hansen when he didn't like a players "attitude". Also, I've heard a lot of comments that Razor is in charge or at least has a lot of say on the loosies, which is probably why we have so many ineffective vanilla players that resemble him in his playing days.

Yes I'm pretty certain I have read somewhere Razor said he was responsible for selecting the loosies.

He definitely did at the start of last year but then Ryan said he had ultimate say over the forwards in a podcast after last years first naming. Haven't heard anything since.

Thanks for the update.

nostrildamus

@brodean said in All Blacks 2025:

Picking Jacobson this year when he hasn't even been fit.

It might be even worse than that. Bringing Wallace back too early, playing Scooter who may have been nursing a longterm injury, playing a quickly injured Blackadder in 2024, a distant love affair with Shannon, Ryan's weak point seems to me to be loose forward selection.

brodean

@gt12 said in All Blacks 2025:

@brodean said in All Blacks 2025:

@gt12 said in All Blacks 2025:

@brodean said in All Blacks 2025:

Tuipulotu basically smashes the line fairly consistently when he's on and it works for us. He's very underrated imo and should be starting with Holland.

Here are the loose forward stats from Super Rugby:

Carries Committing 2+ Tacklers
76.7% Cam Christie
76.5% Oliver Haig
75.1% Semisi Tupou Ta'eiloa
74.6% Luke Jacobson
70.3% TK Howden
69.8% Corey Kellow
69.6% Ardie Savea
68.9% Hoskins Sotutu
68.2% Anton Segner
67.9% Du'Plessis Kirifi

Dominant Carry %
56.1 Vaiolini Ekuasi
45.7 Peter Lakai
44.2 Veveni Lasaqa
43.8 Luke Jacobson
43.1 TK Howden
39.4 Brayden Iose
39.4 Jahrome Brown
39.2 Simon Parker
39.1 Sean Withy
37.2 Cam Christie

Gainline %
73.6 Veveni Lasaqa
73.5 Jahrome Brown
72.1 Vaiolini Ekuasi
71.1 Samipeni Finau
70.8 Hoskins Sotutu
69.6 Simon Parker
68.8 Ardie Savea
68.3 Christian Lio-Willie
68.2 Anton Segner
66.7 Peter Lakai

Tackle Evasion %
34.6 Veveni Lasaqa
26.7 Ardie Savea
22.8 Dalton Papali'i
20.0 Jahrome Brown
19.5 Luke Jacobson
18.9 Christian Lio-Willie
18.4 Du'Plessis Kirifi
18.3 Brayden Iose
16.7 Hoskins Sotutu
15.8 Oliver Haig

Sititi isn't in the top 10 for any of these stats. I realise he didn't play much and was coming back from injury but I will point at these metrics are percentage based.

These are the players who appear the most.

Luke Jacobson: (in "Carries Committing 2+ Tacklers," "Dominant Carry %," and "Tackle Evasion %").
Ardie Savea: (in "Carries Committing 2+ Tacklers," "Gainline %," and "Tackle Evasion %").
Jahrome Brown: (in "Dominant Carry %," "Gainline %," and "Tackle Evasion %").
Veveni Lasaqa: (in "Dominant Carry %," "Gainline %," and "Tackle Evasion %").
Hoskins Sotutu: (in "Carries Committing 2+ Tacklers," "Gainline %," and "Tackle Evasion %").

It would be good if there was a loose forward who appeared in top 10 for the following 3 but there isn't:

Carries Committing 2+ Tacklers
Dominant Carry %,
Gainline %,"

Patrick Tuipulotu appears in top 10 for all 3 for locks.

Forwards Carries Committing 2+ Tacklers
82.3% Xavier Numia
76.9% Ollie Norris
76.7% Cam Christie
76.5% Asafo Aumua
76.5% Oliver Haig
75.1% Semisi Tupou Ta'eiloa
75.0% Pasilio Tosi
74.6% Luke Jacobson
73.6% Patrick Tuipulotu
73.3% Tevita Mafile'o

Backs Carries Committing 2+ Tacklers
82.1% Julian Savea
75.3% AJ Lam
71.6% Timoci Tavatavanawai
67.0% Quinn Tupaea
65.0% Leicester Fainga'anuku ( France )
64.0% Anton Lienert-Brown
63.6% Peter Umaga-Jensen
63.6% Dallas McLeod
61.5% Billy Proctor
59.7% Thomas Umaga-Jensen

FYI Lasaqa hits bugger all rucks and makes bugger all tackles.

I appreciate the stats and the percentages do make comparisons easier, but would you happen to have the carries per 80 mins as well?
Sorry if I missed it and you had a stipulation, but a guy who commits 2 tacklers 75% of the time, but only runs twice a game isn't that useful in comparison to guy who commits 2 tacklers 60% of the time, but runs 12 times a game.

That's a valid question worth exploring but I would suggest that if we select several players in the onfield 15 who commit 2 tacklers to a high percentage then you can share the carries across those players which keeps the opposition guessing as to who is going to be the guy that bends the line.

Two points:

Issue with reversion to the mean

My reason for asking is that if a guy only has two runs a game for 75% gainline, versus another with 12 for 65%, we should likely expect that the first guy will go down to 65% (or worse) as his number of runs increases.

Equally, there could be guys with 50% gainline on two runs who could rise to 75% if they had 12 runs.

Sharing the carries

Given that teams play to specific patterns, you'll need certain players with different skillsets, so while I agree that - all other things being constant - running threats across the park are important, in reality we'll have some guys who do a lot of the heavy lifting in that area. Three really effective ball runners across a forward pack may be much better than 8 average ball runners, assuming there is an attack strategy built to put them in the right places.

Look I pretty much agree with you on both points and certainly I'm not suggesting we have 8 average ball runners.

Personally I think we should have some players that compliment each other.

If you have a tight five like the following none of these players are effective close quarter runners that commit tacklers. Taylor is good out wide.

De Groot, Taylor, Lomax/Newell, Barrett, Vaa'i

One or two guys like Norris, Tosi, Tuipulotu, and Taukei'aho should be in the starting line up and then the bench guys should have a mix of some ball runners and the ruck guys.

Guys like De Groot should not be carrying basically. He should be hitting rucks and making tackles outside of his set piece duties and mauling - like Owen Franks.

De Groot has made 26 carries this year for 11 metres or 40cm per carry. Out of the 21 forwards who have featured this year De Groot has made the 6th most forward carries and the 6th most passes.

He just appears in the attack pattern far to often.

MN5

@brodean said in All Blacks 2025:

@gt12 said in All Blacks 2025:

@brodean said in All Blacks 2025:

@gt12 said in All Blacks 2025:

@brodean said in All Blacks 2025:

Tuipulotu basically smashes the line fairly consistently when he's on and it works for us. He's very underrated imo and should be starting with Holland.

Here are the loose forward stats from Super Rugby:

Carries Committing 2+ Tacklers
76.7% Cam Christie
76.5% Oliver Haig
75.1% Semisi Tupou Ta'eiloa
74.6% Luke Jacobson
70.3% TK Howden
69.8% Corey Kellow
69.6% Ardie Savea
68.9% Hoskins Sotutu
68.2% Anton Segner
67.9% Du'Plessis Kirifi

Dominant Carry %
56.1 Vaiolini Ekuasi
45.7 Peter Lakai
44.2 Veveni Lasaqa
43.8 Luke Jacobson
43.1 TK Howden
39.4 Brayden Iose
39.4 Jahrome Brown
39.2 Simon Parker
39.1 Sean Withy
37.2 Cam Christie

Gainline %
73.6 Veveni Lasaqa
73.5 Jahrome Brown
72.1 Vaiolini Ekuasi
71.1 Samipeni Finau
70.8 Hoskins Sotutu
69.6 Simon Parker
68.8 Ardie Savea
68.3 Christian Lio-Willie
68.2 Anton Segner
66.7 Peter Lakai

Tackle Evasion %
34.6 Veveni Lasaqa
26.7 Ardie Savea
22.8 Dalton Papali'i
20.0 Jahrome Brown
19.5 Luke Jacobson
18.9 Christian Lio-Willie
18.4 Du'Plessis Kirifi
18.3 Brayden Iose
16.7 Hoskins Sotutu
15.8 Oliver Haig

Sititi isn't in the top 10 for any of these stats. I realise he didn't play much and was coming back from injury but I will point at these metrics are percentage based.

These are the players who appear the most.

Luke Jacobson: (in "Carries Committing 2+ Tacklers," "Dominant Carry %," and "Tackle Evasion %").
Ardie Savea: (in "Carries Committing 2+ Tacklers," "Gainline %," and "Tackle Evasion %").
Jahrome Brown: (in "Dominant Carry %," "Gainline %," and "Tackle Evasion %").
Veveni Lasaqa: (in "Dominant Carry %," "Gainline %," and "Tackle Evasion %").
Hoskins Sotutu: (in "Carries Committing 2+ Tacklers," "Gainline %," and "Tackle Evasion %").

It would be good if there was a loose forward who appeared in top 10 for the following 3 but there isn't:

Carries Committing 2+ Tacklers
Dominant Carry %,
Gainline %,"

Patrick Tuipulotu appears in top 10 for all 3 for locks.

Forwards Carries Committing 2+ Tacklers
82.3% Xavier Numia
76.9% Ollie Norris
76.7% Cam Christie
76.5% Asafo Aumua
76.5% Oliver Haig
75.1% Semisi Tupou Ta'eiloa
75.0% Pasilio Tosi
74.6% Luke Jacobson
73.6% Patrick Tuipulotu
73.3% Tevita Mafile'o

Backs Carries Committing 2+ Tacklers
82.1% Julian Savea
75.3% AJ Lam
71.6% Timoci Tavatavanawai
67.0% Quinn Tupaea
65.0% Leicester Fainga'anuku ( France )
64.0% Anton Lienert-Brown
63.6% Peter Umaga-Jensen
63.6% Dallas McLeod
61.5% Billy Proctor
59.7% Thomas Umaga-Jensen

FYI Lasaqa hits bugger all rucks and makes bugger all tackles.

I appreciate the stats and the percentages do make comparisons easier, but would you happen to have the carries per 80 mins as well?
Sorry if I missed it and you had a stipulation, but a guy who commits 2 tacklers 75% of the time, but only runs twice a game isn't that useful in comparison to guy who commits 2 tacklers 60% of the time, but runs 12 times a game.

That's a valid question worth exploring but I would suggest that if we select several players in the onfield 15 who commit 2 tacklers to a high percentage then you can share the carries across those players which keeps the opposition guessing as to who is going to be the guy that bends the line.

Two points:

Issue with reversion to the mean

My reason for asking is that if a guy only has two runs a game for 75% gainline, versus another with 12 for 65%, we should likely expect that the first guy will go down to 65% (or worse) as his number of runs increases.

Equally, there could be guys with 50% gainline on two runs who could rise to 75% if they had 12 runs.

Sharing the carries

Given that teams play to specific patterns, you'll need certain players with different skillsets, so while I agree that - all other things being constant - running threats across the park are important, in reality we'll have some guys who do a lot of the heavy lifting in that area. Three really effective ball runners across a forward pack may be much better than 8 average ball runners, assuming there is an attack strategy built to put them in the right places.

Look I pretty much agree with you on both points and certainly I'm not suggesting we have 8 average ball runners.

Personally I think we should have some players that compliment each other.

If you have a tight five like the following none of these players are effective close quarter runners that commit tacklers. Taylor is good out wide.

De Groot, Taylor, Lomax/Newell, Barrett, Vaa'i

One or two guys like Norris, Tosi, Tuipulotu, and Taukei'aho should be in the starting line up and then the bench guys should have a mix of some ball runners and the ruck guys.

Guys like De Groot should not be carrying basically. He should be hitting rucks and making tackles outside of his set piece duties and mauling - like Owen Franks.

> De Groot has made 26 carries this year for 11 metres or 40cm per carry. Out of the 21 forwards who have featured this year De Groot has made the 6th most forward carries and the 6th most passes.

He just appears in the attack pattern far to often.

De Groot is a tall brick shithouse who I imagine is an absolute beast in the weight room.

Why is it some guys have as much impact with ball in hand as a fly on a windscreen ?

Frank

@hikastags said in All Blacks 2025:

@Frank said in All Blacks 2025:

Who are the hardest running loose forwards in NZ?
As in full steam ahead in a straight line, no jinking.
Do we have any?

Semisi Tupou Ta'eiloa, Brayden Iose, Dom Gardiner, Cam Christie come to mind.

Josh Beehre is pretty straight ahead.
Slightly undersized high workrate locks like him should look at playing 6 at international level.

The Silver Fern

All Blacks 2025