All Blacks 2025
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@Chris-B on international experience, the point being that coaching a club team in a competition is a completely different kettle of fish to coaching a national side, particularly the ABs. International coaches struggling with sub-par club sides doesn't invalidate that.
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@Chris-B said in All Blacks 2025:
Well, for a little bit of Devil's advocacy....
For all of the "Woe is us" and "All would be well if only we'd got Joe", the scoreline reads Razor 4 - Schmidt 0. Which is better than Sir Graham managed vs Robbie in his first four tests. And while it can be argued that it's "only Australia", it's an Australia that took a test off the Lions and beat SA in SA.
Record vs Rassie isn't great 1-3, but Rassie's coaching a generational SA team and has had umpteen years to get them where they are - and didn't have the same post-2023 exodus that we did.
3-0 vs Borthwick.
3-1 vs Galthie (you can only beat what's in front of you - but, could've been 4-0).
2-2 vs Contepomi, which is the most annoying.
And we've won the rest vs Fiji, Japan, Ireland and Italy.
Looking at a couple of other coaching options - well you couldn't get more international experience than Gatland, but he came back to Super rugby and totally shat the bed. How could this happen?
This time last year, there were strong calls for Cotter to join the squad - but then he took the reigning Champion Blues to a 7-9 record this year. You've got to ask why his significant international experience didn't help him arrest this debacle?
The ultra-internationally experienced Jamie Joseph led his Highlanders to the bottom of the table.
How did these things happen with all this international experience?
And, the maligned Hansen actually has quite a bit of international experience. As has Ryan - he nearly won a RWC.
And now Razor has too. He's coached 23 tests - and only lost 6 compared to all of the guys above.
The genius Rassie is 36/49 = 73.5%
Razor is 17/23 = 73.9%It's not a fucking disaster!
The numbers, all things considering, are okay, I’d agree with that. But Test rugby isn’t just about numbers and averages. I’m firmly of the belief that a team is built on performances. For Erasmus, it was the 2018 Wellington Test. For Galthié, it was first beating Ireland in Dublin in 2021 before winning the Grand Slam in 2022. For someone like Andy Farrell, it was winning the Test series in NZ in 2022. None of these coaches have incredible win rates but they have a team that’s difficult to beat, due to these wins and the self-belief that comes with it.
Robertson has had three real opportunities to achieve these kind of results and hasn’t been able to get any of them. First, there were the two Tests in South Africa in 2024, a chance to avenge the lost World Cup final and build from there (2 losses). Then, there was the 2024 Autumn Internationals, a chance to repeat what their predecessors had done 100 years earlier (Robertson even had their team photo taken like the 1924-25 Invincibles) and go unbeaten (loss to France in Paris). Then, this year he had a golden chance to reclaim the Rugby Championship, with two Tests against the Boks in New Zealand (2nd place finish).
Again, it’s understandable that he hasn’t succeeded at the first hurdle. Those other coaches have also failed multiple times before solidifying their team. But for the ABs to become a genuinely good side under Robertson they have to achieve one of those goals. I’m sure that Robertson himself is aware of how important these moments are: his own tenure at the Crusaders was built on overcoming tough odds early, like winning nearly almost all of his games during the 2017 SR season with a young and injury-depleted team, often in spectacular fashion (“Mitch Hunt with the drop goal”). Such performances then gave them the confidence to go to Ellis Park and beat the Lions in their own backyard.
The good news is that there are two clear, team-defining opportunities in the coming 12 months. First, there’s the upcoming Grand Slam tour (another chance to follow in the footsteps of the Invincibles). And then, there’s the tour to South Africa in 2026. Win the series there and there will be little doubt in anyone’s mind that this AB team is a good side. But until he’s achieved one of these team-defining wins, I don’t think it’s too harsh or dramatic to be critical of Robertson. His job is to build a team that’s tough, smart and hard to beat. And you get there by winning against the odds. Numbers be damned.
@Mauss Ha - pointed that at you, because I thought I'd get a well considered response and I'm not disappointed!
But, the thing I really question is the assumption that not having coached internationally is a massive disadvantage.
Now if you've coached a top-6 international team, then you'd expect that you'd learn plenty at the margins in test matches.
But, if you've coached Japan or Italy or Fiji - I reckon that's got minimal additional value compared to coaching the Crusaders. And even those who've coached bigger teams struggle to translate that into meaningful statistics.
Which current international coaches have a higher winning percentage than Razor?
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@Chris-B on international experience, the point being that coaching a club team in a competition is a completely different kettle of fish to coaching a national side, particularly the ABs. International coaches struggling with sub-par club sides doesn't invalidate that.
@No-Quarter said in All Blacks 2025:
@Chris-B on international experience, the point being that coaching a club team in a competition is a completely different kettle of fish to coaching a national side, particularly the ABs. International coaches struggling with sub-par club sides doesn't invalidate that.
Well - that's easy to state.
Show me some statistics and examples to prove it.
Who's currently doing better than Razor and why?
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@Tim John Dybvig!
Haha - I've even got his book somewhere!
Started out as a basketball commentator - probably founded on a North American accent.
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It will not be Ryan he is a great mate of Razors and Jason is pretty easy going he wouldn’t step on Razors toes.
That speculation is way off the mark.@Chris said in All Blacks 2025:
It will not be Ryan he is a great mate of Razors and Jason is pretty easy going he wouldn’t step on Razors toes.
That speculation is way off the mark.Hey mate, any info regarding whether Holland will have a replacement or does Ellison becomes the midfield coach?
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@No-Quarter said in All Blacks 2025:
@Chris-B on international experience, the point being that coaching a club team in a competition is a completely different kettle of fish to coaching a national side, particularly the ABs. International coaches struggling with sub-par club sides doesn't invalidate that.
Well - that's easy to state.
Show me some statistics and examples to prove it.
Who's currently doing better than Razor and why?
@Chris-B said in All Blacks 2025:
@No-Quarter said in All Blacks 2025:
@Chris-B on international experience, the point being that coaching a club team in a competition is a completely different kettle of fish to coaching a national side, particularly the ABs. International coaches struggling with sub-par club sides doesn't invalidate that.
Well - that's easy to state.
Show me some statistics and examples to prove it.
Who's currently doing better than Razor and why?
I am not exactly sure what you mean by that, Razor is the only AB coach. He's doing about as well as Fozzie, and a lot worse than Hansen, Henry, Mitchell, etc... he's currently right down the bottom of the list of AB coaches by win rate. He's also continued in Fozzie's vein of setting records he doesn't want, like a 43-10 drubbing to SA at home, arguably the worst AB performance of all time.
It's pretty obvious the impact an experienced coach like Schmidt had when he turned Fozzie's rabble into a team that should have won the WC. It's not an outrageous claim to make that Schmidt would have hit the ground running if he took over and we would have been better for it, rather than watching Razor try to navigate the steep learning curve between coaching a club side versus coaching the ABs.
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Mark Watson calling for Razor to be sacked and also all of his remaining assistants on radio today.
@MacDazzler said in All Blacks 2025:
Mark Watson calling for Razor to be sacked and also all of his remaining assistants on radio today.
Mark Watson? Seriously?
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@Chris-B I remember circa 1990 hearing the American expat Jim Didvick (sp?) occasionally. My first exposure to a "shock jock".
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@Chris-B said in All Blacks 2025:
@No-Quarter said in All Blacks 2025:
@Chris-B on international experience, the point being that coaching a club team in a competition is a completely different kettle of fish to coaching a national side, particularly the ABs. International coaches struggling with sub-par club sides doesn't invalidate that.
Well - that's easy to state.
Show me some statistics and examples to prove it.
Who's currently doing better than Razor and why?
I am not exactly sure what you mean by that, Razor is the only AB coach. He's doing about as well as Fozzie, and a lot worse than Hansen, Henry, Mitchell, etc... he's currently right down the bottom of the list of AB coaches by win rate. He's also continued in Fozzie's vein of setting records he doesn't want, like a 43-10 drubbing to SA at home, arguably the worst AB performance of all time.
It's pretty obvious the impact an experienced coach like Schmidt had when he turned Fozzie's rabble into a team that should have won the WC. It's not an outrageous claim to make that Schmidt would have hit the ground running if he took over and we would have been better for it, rather than watching Razor try to navigate the steep learning curve between coaching a club side versus coaching the ABs.
@No-Quarter I'm really asking for proof that previous international coaching experience is a massive advantage. I'm not entirely sure it is - I think a talented provincial coach is preferable to a bog-standard international coach. And a few rebuttals...
Ryan came in with zero international experience and improved the forwards as much as Schmidt did the backs.
They collectively both got thumped by the Jaapies at Twickenham, which was pretty much as bad as losing in Wellington this year.
As I point out above - it is Razor 4 - Schmidt 0 - and you've got to wonder whcich of Razor's 6 losses, Joe would have made enough difference to win?
According to Wiki Joe joined the coaching panel on August 17 2022 and subsequently we shipped losses to:
Argentina 18-25
SA 35-7
France 27-13
SA 12-11Plus a draw with England.
15 wins from 20 = 75%
We've lost to the same group of teams and the percentage is not much better - and with arguably better players.
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@MacDazzler said in All Blacks 2025:
Mark Watson calling for Razor to be sacked and also all of his remaining assistants on radio today.
Mark Watson? Seriously?
@booboo Mark Watson is the Kane Cornes and James Hooper of the NZ rugby media. NRL and AFL fans will know who they are..
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And AB coaches with worse winning percentages than Razor - McDonald, Morrison, Marslin, Sullivan, Vodanovic, Stewart, Watson, Mains, Smith, Foster.
We definitely shouldn't appoint anyone whose name begins with M or S - sorry Joe!
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@Chris said in All Blacks 2025:
It will not be Ryan he is a great mate of Razors and Jason is pretty easy going he wouldn’t step on Razors toes.
That speculation is way off the mark.Hey mate, any info regarding whether Holland will have a replacement or does Ellison becomes the midfield coach?
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@Chris said in All Blacks 2025:
It will not be Ryan he is a great mate of Razors and Jason is pretty easy going he wouldn’t step on Razors toes.
That speculation is way off the mark.Hey mate, any info regarding whether Holland will have a replacement or does Ellison becomes the midfield coach?
@restofit said in All Blacks 2025:
@Chris said in All Blacks 2025:
It will not be Ryan he is a great mate of Razors and Jason is pretty easy going he wouldn’t step on Razors toes.
That speculation is way off the mark.Hey mate, any info regarding whether Holland will have a replacement or does Ellison becomes the midfield coach?
I haven’t heard anything as yet .
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@No-Quarter I'm really asking for proof that previous international coaching experience is a massive advantage. I'm not entirely sure it is - I think a talented provincial coach is preferable to a bog-standard international coach. And a few rebuttals...
Ryan came in with zero international experience and improved the forwards as much as Schmidt did the backs.
They collectively both got thumped by the Jaapies at Twickenham, which was pretty much as bad as losing in Wellington this year.
As I point out above - it is Razor 4 - Schmidt 0 - and you've got to wonder whcich of Razor's 6 losses, Joe would have made enough difference to win?
According to Wiki Joe joined the coaching panel on August 17 2022 and subsequently we shipped losses to:
Argentina 18-25
SA 35-7
France 27-13
SA 12-11Plus a draw with England.
15 wins from 20 = 75%
We've lost to the same group of teams and the percentage is not much better - and with arguably better players.
@Chris-B said in All Blacks 2025:
They collectively both got thumped by the Jaapies at Twickenham, which was pretty much as bad as losing in Wellington this year.
Getting thumped in a throw away game amongst a sea of green is in no way as bad as getting embarrassed at home in the RC, that's a very odd take.
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@Mauss said in All Blacks 2025:
And yes, with hindsight there was, once again, too little attention given to international experience. I’m guessing it will return as a deciding factor in the next coaching selection post-2027, which is good news for guys like Jamie Joseph and Vern Cotter (and perhaps even Schmidt and Rennie, should they be interested).
Well, for a little bit of Devil's advocacy....
For all of the "Woe is us" and "All would be well if only we'd got Joe", the scoreline reads Razor 4 - Schmidt 0. Which is better than Sir Graham managed vs Robbie in his first four tests. And while it can be argued that it's "only Australia", it's an Australia that took a test off the Lions and beat SA in SA.
Record vs Rassie isn't great 1-3, but Rassie's coaching a generational SA team and has had umpteen years to get them where they are - and didn't have the same post-2023 exodus that we did.
3-0 vs Borthwick.
3-1 vs Galthie (you can only beat what's in front of you - but, could've been 4-0).
2-2 vs Contepomi, which is the most annoying.
And we've won the rest vs Fiji, Japan, Ireland and Italy.
Looking at a couple of other coaching options - well you couldn't get more international experience than Gatland, but he came back to Super rugby and totally shat the bed. How could this happen?
This time last year, there were strong calls for Cotter to join the squad - but then he took the reigning Champion Blues to a 7-9 record this year. You've got to ask why his significant international experience didn't help him arrest this debacle?
The ultra-internationally experienced Jamie Joseph led his Highlanders to the bottom of the table.
How did these things happen with all this international experience?
And, the maligned Hansen actually has quite a bit of international experience. As has Ryan - he nearly won a RWC.
And now Razor has too. He's coached 23 tests - and only lost 6 compared to all of the guys above.
The genius Rassie is 36/49 = 73.5%
Razor is 17/23 = 73.9%It's not a fucking disaster!
@Chris-B said in All Blacks 2025:
It's not a fucking disaster!
Says the apologist for a record loss. At home.
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Put aside the ridiculous defence by reference to percentages and "what could've been", the simple fact remains what your eyes are telling you isn't imagined. A team near incapable of scoring in the final quarter, incoherent style of play somehow making us look like the unfit team on the field, poor impact from the bench, record losses, poor selections and a coach that looks mystified in media situations.
Meanwhile our opposition look like they have a clear structure they've bought into and understand.
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@Nepia It's certainly Devil's advocacy in terms of the usual Fern circle-jerk.
There's very little serious scrutiny of these supposed other options.
@Chris-B said in All Blacks 2025:
@Nepia It's certainly Devil's advocacy in terms of the usual Fern circle-jerk.
If your post is an unusual Fern circle-jerk, it's still an interesting one.
I don't think, personally, the numbers by themselves have as much weight as before. Not with strong sides sending B or C squads. Not with the gaps in depth and performance across the top 12 or so teams.
And these discussions have too many subjective post-event criteria.
If we all agreed on what would be good goals beforehand, maybe there'd be less argument afterwards? -
@Mauss Ha - pointed that at you, because I thought I'd get a well considered response and I'm not disappointed!
But, the thing I really question is the assumption that not having coached internationally is a massive disadvantage.
Now if you've coached a top-6 international team, then you'd expect that you'd learn plenty at the margins in test matches.
But, if you've coached Japan or Italy or Fiji - I reckon that's got minimal additional value compared to coaching the Crusaders. And even those who've coached bigger teams struggle to translate that into meaningful statistics.
Which current international coaches have a higher winning percentage than Razor?
@Chris-B said in All Blacks 2025:
@Mauss Ha - pointed that at you, because I thought I'd get a well considered response and I'm not disappointed!
You got me. But it’s an interesting discussion so I don’t mind being pulled into it.
But, if you've coached Japan or Italy or Fiji - I reckon that's got minimal additional value compared to coaching the Crusaders. And even those who've coached bigger teams struggle to translate that into meaningful statistics.
I can sympathize with your point because I also think that just having international experience in itself isn’t particularly valuable. John Kirwan coached Italy and Japan; Milton Haig coached Georgia; Alama Ieremia coached Samoa; Wayne Pivac coached Wales. I’m pretty sure that all of these guys would be terrible AB coaches.
But the point is that coaching internationally can make you a better coach: it forces you to adapt your systems to local strengths. Schmidt coached (alongside Cotter) a possession- and forward-based game at Clermont, then turned Leinster into an attacking machine before emphasizing kick- and ruck-heavy game plans with Ireland. Tony Brown turned Japanese fleet-footedness and mobility into an attacking advantage before adapting his attacking shape in order to incorporate big carriers with the Springboks. Cotter emphasizes possession, forward grunt and basics wherever he goes but is able to adapt as well, whether it’s Clermont, Scotland, Fiji or the Blues.
So this brings us back to Robertson. I agree that you don’t need experiences in order to know or learn certain things. But, looking at the current AB team, Robertson seems to have not understood one of the primary lessons of coaching in different environments: you need to respect local strengths and traditions. What is All Blacks rugby? Two things: basic skill execution done to perfection and counter-attacking dominance. What has the Rugby Championship shown once again? That the skillsets aren’t good enough and that the counter-attack is basically non-existent.
Perhaps if Robertson had coached Wales, Fiji or Japan, he would’ve realized that you can’t simply shape the team to your own designs without integrating and enabling that country’s strengths. It seems like a remarkably easy lesson but, looking at the ABs’ performances in 2024 and 2025, it’s something that this coaching group has consistently failed to implement.
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@No-Quarter I'm really asking for proof that previous international coaching experience is a massive advantage. I'm not entirely sure it is - I think a talented provincial coach is preferable to a bog-standard international coach. And a few rebuttals...
Ryan came in with zero international experience and improved the forwards as much as Schmidt did the backs.
They collectively both got thumped by the Jaapies at Twickenham, which was pretty much as bad as losing in Wellington this year.
As I point out above - it is Razor 4 - Schmidt 0 - and you've got to wonder whcich of Razor's 6 losses, Joe would have made enough difference to win?
According to Wiki Joe joined the coaching panel on August 17 2022 and subsequently we shipped losses to:
Argentina 18-25
SA 35-7
France 27-13
SA 12-11Plus a draw with England.
15 wins from 20 = 75%
We've lost to the same group of teams and the percentage is not much better - and with arguably better players.
@Chris-B said in All Blacks 2025:
@No-Quarter I'm really asking for proof that previous international coaching experience is a massive advantage. I'm not entirely sure it is - I think a talented provincial coach is preferable to a bog-standard international coach. And a few rebuttals...
Not really the same argument, I think posters here are arguing that all things being equal, international coaching experience is really important, but they'd agree a talented provincial coach is preferable to a bog-standard international one.
Last year I thought Razor's super experience showed he/his team could be ruthless and effective, and inventive enough. But with the de-internationalisation of Super, the longterms effects of COVID isolationism (perhaps), coaching drain overseas, and arguably a much richer international competition overseas that we are not part of, I think I under-estimated it.
If not Razor then his assistant coaches needed a variety of coaching experiences and I am not convinced overall they have that. Their focused Crusader tactics work at Super level but our Super comp hides too many weaknesses, the teams are too similar and this is exposed in terms of ABs coaching, strategic variety, and ability to innovate and respond not the next game, but the next half! So maybe winning 7 times consecutively (!) at Super level was actually a disadvantage to developing coaching resilience and innovation. Perhaps.
