All Blacks 2025
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@Chris-B said in All Blacks 2025:
And AB coaches with worse winning percentages than Razor - McDonald, Morrison, Marslin, Sullivan, Vodanovic, Stewart, Watson, Mains, Smith, Foster.
We definitely shouldn't appoint anyone whose name begins with M or S - sorry Joe!
so good work circling the Cantab wagons and setting up a straw man.
Question for me is this: would Razor have been better off coaching in a different environment after a few years of success - ie heading offshore in 2019. I would say yes - the experience you get is huge and drives massive development as a coach.
Sir Graham talked about how much he learned and changed as a coach as a result of Wales and particularly the Lions. It matters. More of the same doesn't lead to growth or prepare you for the different challenges that get thrown your way.
Anyway, it is what it is. The conservatism in selection is what has amazed me the most. I still can't understand the thinking behind it.
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@nzzp said in All Blacks 2025:
@Chris-B said in All Blacks 2025:
And AB coaches with worse winning percentages than Razor - McDonald, Morrison, Marslin, Sullivan, Vodanovic, Stewart, Watson, Mains, Smith, Foster.
We definitely shouldn't appoint anyone whose name begins with M or S - sorry Joe!
so good work circling the Cantab wagons and setting up a straw man.
Question for me is this: would Razor have been better off coaching in a different environment after a few years of success - ie heading offshore in 2019. I would say yes - the experience you get is huge and drives massive development as a coach.
Sir Graham talked about how much he learned and changed as a coach as a result of Wales and particularly the Lions. It matters. More of the same doesn't lead to growth or prepare you for the different challenges that get thrown your way.
Anyway, it is what it is. The conservatism in selection is what has amazed me the most. I still can't understand the thinking behind it.
He has out Fostered Foster in this regard. Really odd. I expected a raft of changes in mid 2024 that never happened.
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No doubt the litmus test will be this tour we need to go through unbeaten in my eyes,Build something for next year we can not stumble through 2026 with a WC looming.
I always thought the coaching group looked unbalanced with too many people all thinking in slightly different directions.
If BB is back at 10 and we put Ioane in to the 23 or Proctor ends up back at 13 then Fucked if I know,Because a blue print for selection was that Perth test v Australia.
Darry needs to be on the bench with what we have for this tour LF starting or on the Bench or Clarke either way around works. -
@Victor-Meldrew said in All Blacks 2025:
@nostrildamus said in All Blacks 2025:
But with the de-internationalisation of Super, the longterms effects of COVID isolationism (perhaps), coaching drain overseas, and arguably a much richer international competition overseas that we are not part of, I think I under-estimated it.
Funnily enough, anyone arguing these very same points between 2021-23 was immediately labelled a Foster apologist.
Progress in a way, I guess - but at a cost.
I love how you compress and conflate everything!
Wanting to get rid of Foster doesn't mean one becomes a Razor fanatic.
I would have been happy with Joe, JJ./Brown or perhaps McMillan or Rennie.
Not Rangi or Warren. Not sure about Cotter.
I thought Razor would be better than he has been so far, I still think Razor is a better coach than Foster.
The difference was Joe but I don't recall if he expressed interest in continuing if Foster returned.
Ryan worked for both.
And I wouldn't have chosen the assistant coaches Razor did (or had to).
Whitelock is right, being stuck with assistants before being chosen has its disadvantages.
Regardless, Foster had to go. Whoever thinks they knew all along Razor's team would be as conservative and muddled as Foster's is just polishing their crystal balls. -
The other issue is that both of the last 2 coaching regimes were seen as a done deal, so some who should have had a shot, didnt take thier shot, and some that did, weren't given a fair shake, not to mention the fact you must roll up with your assistants in tow.
That should be part of the same process, have applicants for head coach, assistants, defence etc, then find out which will be the best fit.
Instead, we get what got.
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@nzzp said in All Blacks 2025:
@Chris-B said in All Blacks 2025:
And AB coaches with worse winning percentages than Razor - McDonald, Morrison, Marslin, Sullivan, Vodanovic, Stewart, Watson, Mains, Smith, Foster.
We definitely shouldn't appoint anyone whose name begins with M or S - sorry Joe!
so good work circling the Cantab wagons and setting up a straw man.
Question for me is this: would Razor have been better off coaching in a different environment after a few years of success - ie heading offshore in 2019. I would say yes - the experience you get is huge and drives massive development as a coach.
Sir Graham talked about how much he learned and changed as a coach as a result of Wales and particularly the Lions. It matters. More of the same doesn't lead to growth or prepare you for the different challenges that get thrown your way.
Anyway, it is what it is. The conservatism in selection is what has amazed me the most. I still can't understand the thinking behind it.
@No-Quarter said, "he's currently right down the bottom of the list of AB coaches by win rate. " I was just pointing out that he's really not. He's slightly below average.
A thing about guys disappearing overseas is that many or even most of them don't come back - at least not in the window when they're at their peak. The AB coaching job only comes up occasionally and if you're under contract elsewhere then you miss out.
I'd forgotten about Ryan and Fiji.
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@taniwharugby I sort of wonder whether all the people who should be contenders see coaching the ABs (or NZ Super teams) as a really plum job.
When Fozzie got the job it seemed like just Fozzie vs Razor and when Razor got the job, Razor vs Joseph.
Did other coaches think it was just a done deal or did they - just maybe - not want the pressure/pay/aggravation?
Certainly, some of the Super appointments have been a bit underwhelming in recent years. I seem to recall Tony Brown pretty much had to be coerced to take on the Head Coach role at the Highlanders, because no-one else apparently wanted it.
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@Chris-B said in All Blacks 2025:
@nzzp said in All Blacks 2025:
@Chris-B said in All Blacks 2025:
And AB coaches with worse winning percentages than Razor - McDonald, Morrison, Marslin, Sullivan, Vodanovic, Stewart, Watson, Mains, Smith, Foster.
We definitely shouldn't appoint anyone whose name begins with M or S - sorry Joe!
so good work circling the Cantab wagons and setting up a straw man.
Question for me is this: would Razor have been better off coaching in a different environment after a few years of success - ie heading offshore in 2019. I would say yes - the experience you get is huge and drives massive development as a coach.
Sir Graham talked about how much he learned and changed as a coach as a result of Wales and particularly the Lions. It matters. More of the same doesn't lead to growth or prepare you for the different challenges that get thrown your way.
Anyway, it is what it is. The conservatism in selection is what has amazed me the most. I still can't understand the thinking behind it.
@No-Quarter said, "he's currently right down the bottom of the list of AB coaches by win rate. " I was just pointing out that he's really not. He's slightly below average.
A thing about guys disappearing overseas is that many or even most of them don't come back - at least not in the window when they're at their peak. The AB coaching job only comes up occasionally and if you're under contract elsewhere then you miss out.
I'd forgotten about Ryan and Fiji.
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Just disproven as the ABs literally took Ryan from his Fiji contract.
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Also, if he had been under contract until a WC, he would have been in an ideal situation to take over the position.
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@gt12 I'm really talking about some of the big guns who should be contenders as ABs coach, who did their overseas time with big teams - Deans, Gatland, Rennie, Cotter.
Vern's come back, but it's too late for him - I believe he's only taking the Blues on a year-by-year basis? Too late for Robbie and Warren. Rennie's into his 60s, as well - is he an option for 2031?
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@Chris-B said in All Blacks 2025:
@gt12 I'm really talking about some of the big guns who should be contenders as ABs coach, who did their overseas time with big teams - Deans, Gatland, Rennie, Cotter.
Vern's come back, but it's too late for him - I believe he's only taking the Blues on a year-by-year basis? Too late for Robbie and Warren. Rennie's into his 60s, as well - is he an option for 2031?
Vern Cotter: 63
Robbie Deans: 66
Gatland: 62
Rennie: 61Razor: 51
One of these things is not like the other.
I notice you didn't bring up Jamie Joseph (55), who has been overseas and is now back looking for the role and is a contemporary.
McMillan is now overseas and will likely have a great CV to challenge (especially for an Asst. role) in a couple of years.Had Razor gone overseas in 2019 after being passed over for the AB role, he would have been the ideal age to come and have a go at the role.
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@gt12 said in All Blacks 2025:
@Chris-B said in All Blacks 2025:
@gt12 I'm really talking about some of the big guns who should be contenders as ABs coach, who did their overseas time with big teams - Deans, Gatland, Rennie, Cotter.
Vern's come back, but it's too late for him - I believe he's only taking the Blues on a year-by-year basis? Too late for Robbie and Warren. Rennie's into his 60s, as well - is he an option for 2031?
Vern Cotter: 63
Robbie Deans: 66
Gatland: 62
Rennie: 61Razor: 51
Had Razor gone overseas in 2019 after being passed over for the AB role, he would have been the ideal age to come and have a go at the role.
If he'd come back. He might have been locked in with Scotland or whomever and missed the boat.
Those other guys left and didn't come back is the point I'm making.
Jamie's one who has come back and competed.
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@gt12 Yeah - but, did they apply?
Jamie did.
I'm pretty certain Joe didn't.
If there were other applicants, they weren't made public and didn't appear to make the final rounds. It seemed pretty clearly Razor vs Jamie.
If Razor wasn't there, it might have been Fozzie vs Jamie.
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@Chris-B said in All Blacks 2025:
And AB coaches with worse winning percentages than Razor - McDonald, Morrison, Marslin, Sullivan, Vodanovic, Stewart, Watson, Mains, Smith, Foster.
We definitely shouldn't appoint anyone whose name begins with M or S - sorry Joe!
Now days its fair to compare Razor to pro era coaches compared to amatuers. In that context Razors win rate is similar to Wayne Smiths and Fosters. It might be marginally better but its in the same range.
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Personally I think once you hit 60+ most coaches are past their best. Guys like Gatland and Jones are well past their best.
Coaches who played in the pro era with bigger players are probably more prone to CTE etc too. So it may be younger from this time on when coaches reach their best.
The only other viable options were probably Schmidt and Joseph as head coach. Schmidt seemed to rule himself didn't he?
So it was just Joseph. He's a valid option but at the time Robertson was selected there wasn't really a lot of resistance. In hindsight maybe Robertson wasn't the best pick and he kind of bottled it with his jobs for the boys picks.
That said I do think Robertson would have benefited with someone like Cotter in his team and I do think he would make a better forwards coach and selector than Ryan whos a good tight five coach but an abject failure as a loose forward coach.
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@brodean Yeah.
And the reality is that at 7/9 this year, Razor's not remotely close to getting sacked. As long as he avoids 0/4 on the EOYT he's pretty much locked in for RWC2027 (he probably is regardless).
So the earliest someone like Dave Rennie is getting the job is a couple of years from now - and he's going to be 67 going to RWC 2031. Can't see it happening.
I reckon late-40s/early-50s is the ideal age.
Who's floating around in that age bracket for 2027 if Razor fails at RWC?
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Yeah, Razor ain't going anywhere pre 2027 WC.
I'd however, be surprised if he was our coach in 2028 whatever happens at the World Cup.
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I think you'll find that a lack of applicants may be due to the fact that it was clear to everyone that the job was Razors...
The best example here is Graham Henry.
Passed over for the big job, went overseas. Was successful and not, but when he came back he knew what to do to make us the best in the world.Strangely enough, he was the one (from reports floating around here, at least) who wanted Razor to have some real world experience overseas.
NZRU under Robinson or Ted, hard decision to decide who to trust there.
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@Chris-B said in All Blacks 2025:
I reckon late-40s/early-50s is the ideal age.
Who's floating around in that age bracket for 2027 if Razor fails at RWC?
If my maths is right, Mark Hammett will be 55 in July 2027..
Also in your golden period target area is Nick Evans!
Oh and Carlos Spencer!
